Who will play in the conference championship games? Week 11 Update

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

Below is an analysis of the different Power 5 conference divisional races 10 weeks through the college football regular season. I did not include the Big 12 because they don't have divisions; also, they are a bad conference and should feel bad. 

Note: Not all teams in "Eliminated From Contention" categories are actually mathematically eliminated.

 

The “Too Long, Didn’t Read” Recap:

  • If Auburn beats Georgia this weekend in Athens, the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa will be the SEC Championship game.
  • The SEC East is horrifyingly horrendous, horrendously hideous, and hideously horrible.
  • In the PAC 12 North, two instate rivals with undefeated conference records  (Washington and Washington State) are barreling towards a collision in the Apple Cup on Black Friday.
  • In the PAC 12 South, it’s a three-way affair between the 2011 conference newcomers (Colorado and Utah) plus the conference’s traditional blue blood powerhouse (Southern California).
  • The Big Ten East probably has too many anchors weighing us down to be the best top-to-bottom division in college football; however, standing alone, the top 3 in the East are unmatched by any other division in the nation.
  • The Wisconsin Badgers are clearly in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten West; however, the Minnesota Golden Gophers have been sneaking around for the last two months and actually control their own destiny (with an even bigger margin for error than the Badgers have).
  • Clemson has won the ACC Atlantic but will technically have to wait another week to make it official.  
  • Virginia Tech is in control of the ACC Coastal with the North Carolina Tarheels right behind, waiting and praying for another Hokie slip-up. 

 


 

SEC (Championship in Tuscaloosa, AL; to be followed by a ceremonial coronation the following weekend in Atlanta, Georgia)

 

SEC West

Last Week: Bama won a 10-0 game in Baton Rouge that would have been chastised for bad offense if it was played in the Big Ten but, naturally, it was praised for outstanding SEC defense by ESPN. This game eliminated LSU from contention and Texas A&M is also now officially out of the hunt after their loss to bottom-dwelling Mississippi State. So it’s a two-team race between one team that has looked scary good all season and one team that has looked…not even close to that. Auburn looked awful in a 23-16 home win over horrible Vanderbilt (they were trailing at times during the 2nd half), but they still have a chance to make the Iron Bowl the SEC Championship Game (the following week in Atlanta is just a practice scrimmage followed by the trophy presentation); the Tigers just have to beat Georgia on the road. Georgia plays in the SEC East, so this is more likely than not.

Still in the Hunt

·      Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Mississippi State, vs. Auburn
  • Path: Beat Auburn. Their game against Mississippi State literally doesn’t matter.

·      Auburn (7-2 overall, 5-1 SEC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: @Georgia, @Alabama.
  • Path: Need to win out. No margin for error in those two tough road environments.

 

Eliminated from Contention:

·      Texas A&M (7-2 overall, 4-2 SEC) #EXPOSED

·      LSU (5-3 overall, 3-2 SEC)

·      Arkansas (6-3 overall, 2-3 SEC)

·      Mississippi State (4-5 overall, 2-3 SEC)

·      Ole Miss (4-5 overall, 1-4 SEC)

 

SEC East

Last Week: Where to begin…

So, the 1st place team in the SEC East went to play the 5th place team in the SEC West and got blown out by a tune of 31-10 (That score makes the game look closer than it was. Florida’s lone touchdown was produced by their defense on a turnover; their offense could only score 3 points). And you know what the best part is? That team is still standing ALONE IN FIRST PLACE in the SEC East. THAT’S HOW BAD THIS DIVISION IS!

 

The 2nd place team lost at home after being outscored 11-3 in the fourth quarter and surrendering a game-winning field goal against a 6-6 caliber team. This 2nd place team is now 5-4 overall, has 3 conference losses and has a home loss to Southern Mississippi on its resume. This team is the Kentucky Wildcats. And you know what the best part is? Kentucky is still standing ALONE in second place in the SEC East and has hopes to play in the conference championship. THAT’S HOW BAD THIS DIVISION IS!

 

The 3rd place team, Tennessee, won 55-0. This sounds impressive until you look to see it was against Tennessee Tech. SEC November Scheduling is #elite and #JustMeansMore.

 

Still in the Hunt:

·      Florida (6-2 overall, 4-2 SEC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. South Carolina, @LSU
  • Path: Control their own destiny. If they win out, they win the East. If they lose to LSU (likely), they need Tennessee to lose another game. If they lose out they are probably toast but, honestly, Tennessee could follow up a win over Kentucky with losses to Missouri and Vanderbilt because everyone in this division sucks, so who knows.

·      Kentucky (5-4 overall, 4-3 SEC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: @Tennessee
  • Path: Beat Tennessee plus Florida must lose out, which would include @LSU (likely) and vs. South Carolina (less likely, but in this division, who really knows).

·      Tennessee (6-3 overall, 2-3 SEC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Kentucky, vs. Missouri, @Vanderbilt
  • Path: Win out and hope Florida loses another game.

 

 

Eliminated From Contention:

·      Georgia (5-4 overall, 3-4 SEC)

  • At this point, not worth looking into the potential 5-way, 4-4 SEC record tiebreaker. If they beat Auburn and Tennessee beats Kentucky, then we’ll talk.

·      South Carolina (5-4 overall, 3-4 SEC)

  • I guess South Carolina technically has an outside shot at winning the East if they beat Florida and the winner of Tennessee vs. Kentucky loses once more (not sure how the tiebreaker would go, as stated above), but I refuse to move them to the “Still in the Hunt” section after beating horrid Missouri by only 10 points because that shouldn’t give anyone any reward. Also, my head hurts from analyzing the SEC East so much.

·      Vanderbilt (4-5 overall, 1-4 SEC)

·      Missouri (2-7 overall, 0-5 SEC)

 


PAC-12 (Championship in Santa Clara, California)

 

PAC-12 North

Last Week: The logistics of this race did not change this week; however, the national perceptions of the two co-frontrunners were definitely bolstered. Washington State destroyed Rich Rod’s Arizona team by a score of 69-7 while Washington spoiled the typical drama of #PAC12AfterDark by routing the Cal Bears 66-27 in Berkeley. #TheAppleCup is going to be totally hype this year.

 

Still in the Hunt:

·      Washington (9-0 overall, 6-0 PAC-12)

  • Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern California, vs. Arizona State, @Washington State
  • Path: Control their own destiny. Win out and they are in. The Huskies will also still control their own destiny even if they lose one of their next two games (a win over WSU on Black Friday would still clinch them the North in this scenario).

·      Washington State (7-2 overall, 6-0 PAC-12)

  • Remaining Schedule: vs. California, @Colorado, vs. Washington.
  • Path: Control their own destiny; win out (or lose one of their next two, but defeat their rival) and they are in Santa Clara playing for the Rose Bowl.

 

Eliminated From Contention:

·      Stanford (6-3 overall, 4-3 PAC-12)

·      California (4-5 overall, 2-4 PAC-12)

·      Oregon (3-6 overall, 1-5 PAC-12)

·      Oregon State (2-7 overall, 1-5 PAC-12)

 

PAC 12 South

Last Week: Although this division is an incredibly exciting, three-way race, this past week was far from it. Utah had a bye week. USC handled the flailing Oregon Ducks 45-20 at home in the Coliseum. On Thursday night, Colorado treaded water with a 20-10 home victory over UCLA for their first win over one of the two Los Angeles schools since joining the PAC 12 in 2011 (Buffs are now 1-11 against USC/UCLA in conference play). CU turned the ball over 4 times and generally looked like a mess on offense but being able to lose the turnover margin by three and still win by double digits is a good sign, I guess. Defensively, it was a stellar showing (UCLA got its lone field goal after recovering a turnover but then promptly going three and out, so the CU defense really can only be blamed for 7 points). 10-2 Colorado is still a possibility, you guys!!!

 

Still in the Hunt:

·      Colorado (7-2 overall, 5-1 PAC-12)

  • Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, vs. Washington State, vs. Utah
  • Path: Control their own destiny; win out and they are in Santa Clara. Assuming that USC loses to Washington in Seattle this weekend, the Buffaloes can lose one of their next two games but still beat Utah to win the South. If the Trojans pull an upset, they have no margin for error as they lost to USC in the Coliseum a few weeks ago. GO BUFFALOES!

·      Southern California (6-3 overall, 5-2 PAC 12)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: @Washington, @UCLA.
  • Path: After a disastrous month of September, including a 1-3 record to start, the Trojans have bounced back with 5 wins in a row, 4 of which were by multi-score margins and the other over a Top 25 team. It looks almost certain that USC will reach 8 wins by defeating both of their imploding rivals (UCLA and ND) in the final two weeks; however, reaching that 9th win is going to take their best effort and then some. USC needs to beat Washington on the road to have a realistic shot at the South. If SC loses to the Huskies and Utah/Colorado take care of business against the middling teams from Arizona, the Trojans will be eliminated this time next week.

·      Utah (7-2 overall, 4-2 PAC-12)

  • Remaining Schedule: @Arizona State, vs. Oregon, @Colorado.
  • Path:  They are currently in third place in the standings (trail Colorado by one game and USC by half a game), but the Utes still control their own destiny (winning out would give them a tiebreaker over Colorado and Utah already defeated USC). If Utah loses one of its next two games it will need help from both Colorado and USC losing once each, but they would still have a chance if they can take down the Buffs in Boulder. Utah would also win an extremely unlikely 3-way tiebreaker (they are the only one of the three contenders to go undefeated in non-conference play).

 

Eliminated From Contention:

·      Arizona State (5-4 overall, 2-4 PAC-12)

·      UCLA (3-6 overall, 1-5 PAC-12)

·      Arizona (2-7 overall, 0-6 PAC-12)

 


Big Ten (Championship in Indianapolis, Indiana)

 

Big Ten East:

Last Week: The remaining contenders all throttled their opponents this week in front of the three largest crowds to watch football games in America this weekend: Michigan smashed the Maryland Turtle-People 59-3, Penn State ravaged the Iowa Farm-Birds 41-14 and Ohio State absolutely demolished the #10 Nebraska Corn-Children 62-3. I hesitate to call the Big Ten East the best division in college football due to teams 4-7 in the standings (especially the anchors known as the Spartans and Scarlet Knights); however, there is no doubt in my mind that the top of the B1G East is the premier divisional threesome in the United States.

 

Still in the Hunt:

·      Michigan (9-0 overall, 6-0 Big Ten)

  • Remaining Schedule: @Iowa, vs. Indiana, @Ohio State
  • Path: We control our own destiny; win out and we’re obviously going to Indy. Alternatively, we could lose either of our next two games and still beat OSU to win the Big Ten East.  Finally, in the exceedingly unlikely (worst-case) scenario we could win the next 2, lose to the Ohioans but have the Buckeyes lose another game before they get to us.

·      Penn State (7-2 overall, 5-1 Big Ten)

  • Remaining Schedule: @Indiana, @Rutgers, vs. Michigan State
  • Path: The Nittany Lions have actually looked…very good…under James Franklin…late in the season…in conference play. Didn’t think I’d ever type that sentence. The easy part is that PSU must win out; the hard part is that the Michigan Wolverines must lose twice. If U of M can walk away from Iowa City with a win this weekend, PSU’s chances will be very close to extinguished.

·      Ohio State (8-1 overall, 5-1 Big Ten)

  • Remaining Schedule: @Maryland, @Michigan State, vs. Michigan
  • Path: Must win out. Additionally, Ohio State needs Michigan to WIN its next two games OR Penn State to lose one of its final three games. If the Nittany Lions win out and Michigan loses a game before they travel to Columbus, Ohio State will be shit out of luck (a 10-2 Penn State would go to Indianapolis over an 11-1 Ohio State if Michigan has two losses).

 

Eliminated From Contention:

·      Indiana (5-4 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

·      Maryland (5-4 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

·      Rutgers (2-7 overall, 0-6 Big Ten)

·      Michigan State (2-7 overall, 0-6 Big Ten)

  • PS-I’m very excited for the B1G East Toilet Bowl this weekend in East Lansing between RU and MSU.

 

Big Ten West

Last Week: A lot happened this past weekend in the Central Time Zone part of our conference. First of all, Nebraska lost sole possession of first place after a brutal road beating in Columbus. The Huskers are not out of the race quite yet, but they no longer control their own destiny and their chances look bleak. The Wisconsin Badgers finally shook off the curse of Evanston with a 21-7 victory over Northwestern to achieve their first win at Ryan Field this century (no, seriously). This in turn eliminated the Wildcats from contention, along with the Hawkeyes who lost a blowout in Happy Valley. Finally, the Minnesota Golden Gophers officially control their own destiny after Iowa’s loss and their lackluster, 44-31 home win over Purdue (Boilermakers led in the second half).

 

Still in the Hunt:

·      Wisconsin (7-2 overall, 4-2 Big Ten)

  • Remaining Schedule: vs. Illinois, @Purdue, vs. Minnesota
  • Path: If you thought Penn State has a cakewalk for the last three games, check out this homestretch. However, unlike the Nittany Lions, the Badgers have earned it with arguably the toughest schedule in the country up to this point. The Badgers control their own destiny; win out and they’re in. Also, they could lose to one of Purdue and Illinois (not happening) if the Huskers drop another game.

·      Minnesota (7-2 overall, 4-2 Big Ten)

  • Remaining Schedule: @Nebraska, vs. Northwestern, @Wisconsin
  • Path: Minnesota controls their own destiny and is actually in the best position in the division (in terms of pure mathematics); they could lose to Northwestern and still maintain control of their own destiny (the Wildcats are not a threat in potential 3 or 4-way ties). However, the schedule is about to get 10 times harder than anything it has resembled thus far. To make matters worse, the Gophers have consistently failed the eye test. For a recap, they lost a sludge-fart, 14-7 game to a 6-6 caliber Iowa squad and played incredibly close games with putrid Colorado State, Oregon State, Rutgers and Purdue, all of which were at home Minneapolis. Yet, if the Gophers can silence 90,000 in Lincoln and 80,000 in Madison they will surely deserve Indianapolis.

·      Nebraska (7-2 overall, 4-2 Big Ten)

  • Remaining Schedule: vs. Minnesota, vs. Maryland, @Iowa
  • Path: Man, that was brutal. The Huskers head back to Lincoln to lick their wounds, needing to win out and the Badgers to lose a game.

 

Eliminated from Contention:

·      Northwestern: (4-5 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

·      Iowa (5-4 overall, 3-3 Big Ten)

·      Illinois (3-6 overall, 2-4 Big Ten)

·      Purdue (3-6 overall, 1-5 Big Ten)

 

 


ACC (Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina)

 

Atlantic Division:

Last Week: Clemson’s dominant* 54-0 shutout of Syracuse (*note: not quite as dominant as a 56 point margin of victory) leaves Louisville and Wake Forest peering through the microscopic crack of a door that is all but shut. Louisville is resigned to primarily rooting for its vanquished foes to keep winning so as to aid them in their argument of being football’s best one loss team (an argument I no longer buy after seeing the Buckeyes in action against Nebraska). Wake Forest is one of many happy stories of a rare bowl eligible season this year, so I am keeping them in the hunt for charitable and inspirational purposes.

 

Presumptive Champion:

·      Clemson (9-0 overall, 6-0 ACC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Pittsburgh, @Wake Forest.
  • Path: Win one more ACC game. Clemson will officially clinch by defeating the Pittsburgh Panthers, who will enter Death Valley on a 2 game losing skid. Even if Pitt somehow pulls the upset, Clemson would still control its own destiny going into its final conference game at Wake Forest.

 

(Technically) Still in the Hunt (but not really):

·      Louisville (8-1 overall, 6-1 ACC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Wake Forest.
  • Path: Beat Wake Forest and hope Clemson loses out in conference.

·      Wake Forest (6-3 overall, 3-2 ACC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: @Louisville, vs. Clemson, vs. Boston College.
  • Path: Win out and Clemson must lose to Pittsburgh.

 

Eliminated from Contention:

·      Florida State (6-3 overall, 3-3 ACC)

·      Syracuse (4-5 overall, 2-3 ACC)

·      North Carolina State (4-5 overall, 1-4 ACC)

·      Boston College (4-5 overall, 1-5 ACC)

 

Coastal Division:

Last Week: Status quo prevails in the Coastal: a two-team race with UNC on the outside looking in. This weekend the Tarheels blew out Georgia Tech in Chapel Hill while Virginia Tech just barely escaped from Durham with a 24-21 win against the Duke Blue Devils, who are now 3-6 and winless in conference play. However, VT’s two remaining conference matchups are home games against the 5th and 6th place teams in the Coastal Division; as a North Carolina fan, I wouldn’t exactly feel great about those chances.

 

Still in the Hunt:

·      Virginia Tech (7-2 overall, 5-1 ACC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Virginia
  • Path: Control their own destiny, but will likely need to win out.

·      North Carolina (7-2 overall, 5-1 ACC)

  • Remaining Conference Schedule: @Duke, vs. North Carolina State
  • Path: Defeat their two rivals to finish the season 7-1 in the ACC and hope that Virginia Tech allows an upset in Blacksburg.

 

Eliminated From Contention:

·      Miami (5-4 overall, 2-3 ACC)

·      Pittsburgh (5-4 overall, 2-3 ACC)

·      Georgia Tech (5-4 overall, 2-4 ACC)

·      Virginia (2-7 overall, 1-4 ACC)

·      Duke (3-6 overall, 0-5 ACC)

 

 

Comments

MGoUltimate

November 7th, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^

Thanks for this.

I've seen fivethirtyeight's playoff predictor posted here before. I thought I would be useful to post a who-to-root-for list for the upcoming games. Below, I have who to root for, with the difference in Michigan's chances of making the playoffs in parenthases.

 

Michigan over Iowa (+23%)

Maryland over OSU (+22%)

Pitt over Clemson (+6%)

Illinois over Wisconsin (+6%)

Miss. State over Bama (+5%)

USC over Washington (+4%)

Wake Forest over Louisville (+2%)

NOTE: All other games affect Michigan's chances by 1% or less.

 

 

SpikeFan2016

November 7th, 2016 at 3:57 PM ^

I disagree on the Wisconsin statistic, we want them to win out to bolster our resume and potential future win in Indianapolis. 

 

Badger losses are unfavorable for us at this point. The only way Wisconsin steals our playoff spot is if they win in Indy; if we lose in Indy we shouldn't go anyways. 

Bluelaf

November 8th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^

Wisconsin statistic seems right to me.

 

It's not about resume bolstering: if we don't win the B1G, it's very unlikely that we go to the playoffs.  The Wisconsin statistic is so large because they are the only West team that we are not overwhelmingly favored against.  It's strongly in UM's interest for anyone other than Wisconsin to win the West.  So goooooo Gophers!

Hotel Putingrad

November 7th, 2016 at 9:25 PM ^

their defense is legit. what hurts them is not having the depth the SEC state schools have. That's why they typically fade at the end, but they should have beaten SC, UK, and FL this year and would be 7-2. Mason is doing a good job with the resources he has.

SpikeFan2016

November 8th, 2016 at 2:55 AM ^

Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky both put up over 30 points on them, including 38 to GT who is a mediocre 70th in the country in points per game. 

 

So yeah, Vandy is still horrible (as are the vast majority of their divisional peers). Their schedule has included a ton of weak teams, only reason why their defense looks good sometimes. 

 

That's like saying Rich Rod's 2009 team had a legit offense. 

Chitown Kev

November 7th, 2016 at 11:12 PM ^

Big 10- Michigan v. Wisconsin

ACC- Virginia Tech v. Clemson

SEC- Alabama v. Florida

Pac12- Colorado v. Washington (although I could see USC beating Washington and sneaking in the CCG t play Washington again