Whereupon I make a unique preseason prediction for your amusement: The 2016 offense will be different

Submitted by dragonchild on

Football's almost here, folks.

It's at the point where I wonder if anything more can be said about this team.  MGoBlog is in a starved frenzy.  Millions of words have been written about a team that has yet to play a down of the 2016 season.  Preseason predictions are as lofty as an undefeated regular season and playoff berth.  So this is either the best possible time to throw out some content, or the worst.  I guess I'll just live with what comes out of this.

FWIW, I hate making W/L predictions, namely because something crazy tends to happen that defies all logic.  Key B1G matchups were won last season on freakish factors, from bad officiating to bad weather.  Predictions can be perfectly logical and still not matter.  But I do get premonitions, and while they're sometimes "X will beat Y", sometimes they're oddly specific in a not-nearly-as-satisfying way.  So I might get some "why bother" reactions for this, but we're at the point where little else can be said about this team (you've probably seen over dozen W-L predictions if you haven't been living under a rock), and it occurred to me that I did come across something that hasn't been said yet.  So FWIW, I'll put it here just in case I'm on to something.  Probably not but we'll see.

Let's start with the premise that's about to be challenged.  Everyone here (and elsewhere) is taking for granted that this year's offense is going to be an overall upgraded version of last year's, maybe some positional downgrades, but plenty of MANBALL and 4TE sets and Smith running through a roughin' toughin' line (year 2 Drevno uber alles) with plenty of Harbaugh/Fisch hijinks to keep defenses off balance.  Now, just because the Internet goes "what's nuance?" I guess I have to point out that I don't expect a wholesale abandonment of those concepts.  Harbaugh's preferences are clear; he likes to ram the ball down your maw if he can do it.  So he'll certainly try, but not to the extent of losing games in the name of principle (may 2011 Iowa never happen again).  But for what it's worth, here's a prediction that I daresay hasn't been made. . .

The 2016 offense is going to look significantly different from 2015, strategically.

I get that that sounds like it's saying something without saying anything, but unfortunately I can't think of a better way to phrase it.  I hate soundbites, anyway, so I'll try to explain.  Let's look at the starters from early in the 2015 season, as they stood, but with some hindsight as to where they really were:

QB: Rudock

RB: Smith

FB: Kerridge/Houma

WR: Chesson, Darboh, Perry

TE: Butt, Williams

OL: Cole, Kalis, Glasgow, Braden, Magnuson

If you remember, it took Rudock a while to get going.  Perry was a true freshman and practically single-handedly lost us the Utah game.  Rudock couldn't hit Chesson with the deep ball, Peppers couldn't be unleashed yet (new coordinator for the D as well), and as a result pass defenses keyed on Butt.  So Harbaugh had to get the most he could from the run game, even though guard play was iffy.  I mean, he likes to run, but this was a need.  So what we got for about half a season was a very left-handed run game with Cole and/or Glasgow often pulling, and extensive use of the fullbacks.  We saw Chesson's speed utilized in end-arounds and then threatened with fakes once that was on tape.  We saw FB dive come back like it was in style, and plenty of screens.

Harbaugh didn't do this just to mitigate damage.  He gets the absolute most out of what he has and what he saw was hey, I have a fast blocking WR and two good fullbacks, and I'm gonna use them.  Also, Cole is great in space and (we didn't know it at the time but) Williams was a completely different player last season.  I bolded all these players above as run game assets  and you can see why he went with a FB-heavy MANBALL approach.  It never went away even after Rudock heated up, but it wasn't just tendency.  Every chance he could, he had the players doing things they were good at, even if that was limited at the time.

So with that in mind, let's look at the projected starters as of today, 8/23 (subject to change!!):

QB: Speight

RB: Smith

FB: Poggi/Hill

WR: Chesson, Darboh, Perry

TE: Butt, Bunting

OL: Newsome, Kalis, Cole, Braden, Magnuson

I'm not making any crazy predictions here; this should be news to no one.  A freshman might surprise (Wheatley is particulary intriguing) but they all have uphill climbs.  Now, that thing that bothered me about the way the preseason predictions have been going.  I've maintained that Harbaugh is the ultimate SunTzuball coach.  Why is everyone assuming he'll try the same thing with no regard to roster change?  They are the same guys, for the most part, but many of them are now different players.

What's he going to do this year?  To figure that out, and this may hit some nerves, I italicized the possible run liabilities in the starters.  (If Speight starts, he's marked as a "liability" in that he can't threaten with his legs.)  Not necessarily disasters, but guys who will struggle with consistency.  Again, not saying they're bad; this is about getting the most out of this unit.  Harbaugh's going to put the players in a position to succeed instead of ordering them to head-butt their way through a brick wall.  Anyway, if the FBs can't block consistently. . . they won't.  Henderson might be an X-factor here but he's not Kerridge or Houma, and Harbaugh used those guys because of who they are.  And even against Florida, UFR showed the run game was largely Smith making something of a checked-out Florida D.  Year 2 Anno Drevno duly noted, but I'm not the only one openly wondering if the O-line's close to its ceiling.  We'll still run the ball, but I don't see us relying on it like the start of last season, largely because. . .

We won't need to!  I bolded the pass game assets above, and that's almost all of them.  (That includes most of the OL because as a unit they overall graded very good in pass pro -- Bosa was just something else and he's gone).  Both QBs have spent over a year doing wax-on, wax-off in the Harbaugh-fu dojo.  Smith is an excellent pass blocker.  Perry's got his head fixed, and Chesson's blowed up from a guy Harbaugh had to use creatively to a guy who roasted Vernon Hargreaves crispy.  Butt is a velcro-covered black hole for balls thrown his way.  Add in guys like O'Korn or Peppers and the picture doesn't really change (maybe more RPOs).  Add in Jourdan Lewis, Ty Isaac or Drake Johnson and the picture's even more pass-happy.

So, what will the offense look like, at least to start the season?  I think we'll see more West Coast-ish, one-back stuff than expected, with Wheatley next to Newsome to shore up the left side if necessary.  Darboh, Chesson, Butt and Perry will wreak havoc on back 7s, which will spook linebackers and open up the run game.  You may see some Isaac/Smith or Johnson/Smith backfields for wheel routes, Smith doing his blitz pick-up thing and maybe moonlighting as a fullback.  But mostly, I'm predicting that this offense -- until/unless guys like Poggi and Kalis get their targeting issues fixed anyway -- will be a pass-first unit.

Some things I have to disclaim because the Internet goes "what's nuance?":

1) No, we are not going to be one-dimensional.  That's the last thing Harbaugh will allow.  We all know he's going to do a ton of crazy stuff beyond the scope of this entry.

2) We're not abandoning the run either.  We'll still see MANBALL and plenty of FB play, especially with comfortable leads.  In close games, though, the pass unit will support the run much in the way the situation was reversed to start last season.

3) This is subject to change based on player improvement.  If Poggi and/or Hill vastly improve their blocking in the submarine then I'll look stupid and I'll be fine with that, because that's only good news.

4) This isn't saying Poggi and Hill are bad.  Please don't insinuate I'm saying that.  This is more, we have excellent receiving options to open up holes in the defense, vs. the excellent fullback options and passing game challenges Harbaugh had last season.  Poggi and Hill aren't competing against each other so much as who we have at slot and TE and we have some great options there.  They'll play, but if Harbaugh needs points you might see more 3-wide and 4-wide looks.  With O'Korn he might run zone read.

5) Probably not against Hawaii or UCF.  They're not good so if the pass-first approach gets us to 21-0 in the first quarter and the defense shuts the door, Harbaugh might be content to MANBALL for 3 quarters en route a 35-3 glorified scrimmage.  This prediction is more about his "go-to" offensive set.

Harbaugh puts players in positions to succeed, puts the best 11 on the field and understands constraint concepts well.  Again, the run game won't be bad.  But looking at what he has as of today, the passing game is so compelling that I just don't see Harbaugh -- a former pro QB and SunTzuball extraordinaire -- go all Lloyd Carr on it.  If rolling out a pass-happy one-back set gets him more TDs than doing what worked last year he'll do that, and he's certainly got the personnel for it.

Comments

JeepinBen

August 23rd, 2016 at 10:35 AM ^

I think we'll miss Houma/Kerridge as well and will probably see more 1-back, 2TE sets (Butt/Bunting and/or Wheatley).

Harbaugh doesn't put square pegs into round holes, he makes the holes square.

dragonchild

August 23rd, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^

I like that way of putting it.

Houma/Kerridge > Poggi/Hill but not to the extent that we can't do the same things as last year.  This is more about how much better the passing game looks today compared to the start of last season when he couldn't rely on Perry running a route properly or Chesson adjusting to a deep ball.  Those issues are long fixed.  If we need to convert a 3rd down, it's can Kalis or Poggi target the right guy or can Chesson be covered at all.  Which one sounds more like a sure thing?

Also, Smith wasn't moved to FB in hindsight because there was no need.  Our FBs were more than up to the task last season.  And hey, Poggi and Hill might be too.  But in the event they're not, an Isaac/Smith backfield looks compelling.

This could also be a theory as to why Speight is ahead; if Harbaugh's channeling his inner WCO based on the personnel, Speight is the better fit at least in the short term.

jdemille9

August 23rd, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^

Excellent write up. So refreshing to have a guy like Harbaugh here. Take what you have and make the most of it, don't just force square pegs into round holes like the last two regimes. I fully expect Harbaugh to add more wrinkles each game, just like last year, no one will know what these guys are gonna do next!

dragonchild

August 23rd, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^

We can count on unpredictability but showing a one-back set won't throw off defenses for very long.  More like, what the hell are you going to do?  Chesson and Butt are first-round draft picks, Perry is Dileo 2.0, Darboh is Avant 2.0, Peppers is a playmaker, Smith is an excellent 3rd down back, Isaac and Johnson can also catch, Ways is getting hype and now there's even noise of Lewis joining in the offense.  When it comes to making the defense go "I quit", the ceiling isn't running Power O with this squad, at least based on what we know today.

Consider if we ran four-verts with some combination of Chesson, Darboh, Butt, Lewis and Peppers with O'Korn running zone read.  That doesn't look very Stanfordized but Harbaugh has gone four-wide at times with Luck and we got the peeps to run that today.

ThatFatMan42

August 23rd, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^

I like the idea that things will look different on offense this year.  Harder for our opponents to lean on tendencies and defend from year to year.  Also makes me feel better about the potential for 2017

Space Coyote

August 23rd, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^

Yes, the FBs were still involved, but based on my simple recollection, I think Michigan went to much more of a quick hitting one-back offense toward the end of the season. Lots of 3 step drops and quick PA to get the defense to move, much less Power and slow developing I-Form packages. 

dragonchild

August 23rd, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^

When Smith got dinged up around the time Rudock came on, the run and pass games underwent role reversal.  I think we also saw the heaviest used of FB dive in that transition phase because -- for a couple weeks anyway -- Smith was already hurt when Rudock wasn't quite in his final form.  It did throw off defenses, but in hindsight the FBs were in the best shape.  Harbaugh constantly adjusted the offense to fit the personnel, even as the personnel changed.

Poor Florida; whatever they were going through, they got the evolved neo-Rudock and cyber-Chesson, a healthy Smith and the FBs' swan songs all at once.

OwenGoBlue

August 23rd, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^

Hill can be a great chain mover out of the backfield in the passing game. Great hands and very good body control for a gentleman of his size.

I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with 3 or 4 TDs given 1) the way our big three receiving options threaten across the field, and 2) Harbaugh RPS.

Lanknows

August 23rd, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^

If I understand correctly you are saying we will pass more this year because of personnel (especially at FB/TE). While I agree with many of your points, I think things will go the opposite way.

I'll explain why, but first I have to disagree with the assumption that we relied on the run game last year. It wasn't good enough to be relied rely upon. Before the long-pass game clicked, we relied on spreading the field horizontally with short passes and reverses. Once Rudock settled in, we become a full-on pass-to-run team, which opened things up a bit for things like the FB runs. Against OSU we ran more than twice as often as we passed (counting Rudock sacs/scrambles). In other words, I think what you are predicting was already true by the end of last year.

This year, the pass game should be about the same, but the run game should be significantly improved.

  • Potential Pass Improvements: FB (Hill), TE2, Freshman WRs
  • Same:  Chesson/Darboh/Butt, 4/5 OL
  • Potentiall Pass Downgrades: QB, LT
  • Potentially Run Improvements: 4/5 OL (including Cole@OC), O'Korn, Poggi
  • Same: Chesson/Darboh/Butt
  • Potentially Run Downgrades:  FB, TE2, LT 

The keys here are QB and OL. For the OL there isn't much room for improvement in pass blocking but run blocking has plenty.  For QB we have a big unknown, but it's hard to imagine Speights developing enough as a passer to close the gap we saw last season between he and Rudock.

I do agree that the offense is flexible, will put people in position to succeed, and can choose to replace a traditional FB with a WR or another blocky-catchy (to use mgoparlance). I believe we could see less run plays with a FB as lead-blocker, but I don't think that will shift the run/pass balance or character of the offense away from manball. There are a lot of different ways to execute power run plays, and I believe the adjustments (if necessary) will be in blocking assignments.

I see this offense leaning on it's run game to open up the pass game this year, a reversal of what we saw last season.

dragonchild

August 23rd, 2016 at 2:31 PM ^

We showed that look in the Utah game and -- to their credit -- quickly went to screens and such when they blowed it up while riding the nuclear-powered icebreaker.  But yeah, as others have noted I kind of buried the lede; for at least the last third of the season and possibly before we were a pass-first offense.  In fact that's a lot of what I'm basing this prediction on.  As an aside, I could be wrong but I thought we were using the FBs extensively before Rudock was shredding pass defenses.

But I dispute that we're going back to the run, at least initially.  That's kind of the default mindset but I don't think it's a given this O-line will improve significantly and we'll miss Kerridge/Houma.  The pass blocking won't improve much because it's good.  The run game may improve, sure, but it could improve quite a bit and still not be as good as what we have in the passing game.  I don't know how Speight's ceiling compares to Rudock's, but Rudock took a while because he didn't arrive until fall camp and it showed as he struggled with timing and communication.  Speight's floor won't have those problems, at least.  Harbaugh will eventually realize his dream of a downhill running team, but he's not going to use high draft picks as decoys when they're legit scoring threats.

Lanknows

August 23rd, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^

It may or may not work, but I think they will try. Rationale: a) They very much want to have an assertive run game and b) they want to mitigate for uncertainty at QB.

We may be a pass-first offense again if the run game doesn't improve enough. But it seems likely that it will to some degree.  If nothing else, I would expect the 2016 offense to trend toward a more balanced offense (less reliant on just the pass game).

I think what we saw in the early Utah game reflects what Michigan "wants" to be in 2016. Early in the year they were still learning just how ineffective the run-blocking was. They tried to have a conventional offense in the 1st quarter - run, pass to Butt down the middle, takes your shots downfield to Chesson.  There was one FB carry that game.  It wasn't till they realized that the Utah DL was shutting down the run game that they went to more creative playcalls (e.g., screens) and (mostly unsuccessful) downfield pass game.  In a way that game was a good encapsulation of the entire season for the Offense, or at least it would have if Chesson had converted one late long TD. They didn't know they had to pass to open up the run game, but by the end it was obvious and Michigan was essentially a pass-first team.

As for Speight vs. Rudock. I suppose you might be right, but I find it hard to believe that Speight has made up that much ground in the offseason.  He wasn't anywhere near Rudock last year, with the same experience in the system (though not overall).  We've seen Speights floor, and it's well below Rudock.  The question is how much he has improved. Practice reports indicate a lot, but does that mean he will be the smart gunslinger Rudock turned into? I haven't heard ANY "better than Rudock" talk since midseason 2015 - and that was about OKorn, when Rudock was struggling. It seems doubtful Speight will be as good, especially when you consider the uncertainty at LT (blindside).

I feel pretty confident Michigan will run more, if nothing else because of the schedule (as you mentioned).  How things will look by MSU are tough to call.  Michigan will run the ball better than they did (I'm certain), but will it be enough to move the ball against a defense like MSU's or shift the strategy and run/pass balance relative to last season?  TBD. 

For reference we were almost exactly a 50/50 run/pass team in that MSU game (despite having the lead all game).

dragonchild

August 23rd, 2016 at 8:50 PM ^

Yep, I think that MSU will be the game where the offense's true identity will be decided for the rest of the season.  Will the run game progress enough to stand on its own, or will Harbaugh go back to leaning on Chesson and Butt?  We'll run up the gut against Hawaii but even if we finish that game with 50 tailback rushes I won't back off from my "pass first" prediction in the sense that that's where Harbaugh thinks the points will come from when the going gets tough.  PSU and Wisconsin will tell us more.

As for Speight, since his meh debut he's had the bowl practices, Spring ball and now Fall camp, all under Harbaugh's wing.  If he hasn't improved significantly then either Harbaugh's record as a QB coach up to now has been a complete fluke, or there really isn't a QB controversy at all and we should be talking about O'Korn.  They looked comparable during the Spring game though.

EGD

August 23rd, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^

Constraint theory holds that an offense will prefer to run its base play unless an opponent "cheats" to stop the base play, in which case the offense will run a constraint play to punish the defense for cheating.

If Harbaugh is truly an adopter of constraint theory, then to be a pass-first unit would suggest that Michigan should adopt a pass as its base play.  That's not the worst idea in the world.  A simple hook route to Butt, a smoke pass to Darboh, or any number of short or even intermediate routes to Chesson could probably be reliably executed against straight-up coverage.  

I still think Harbaugh would prefer to build his offense around Power O or some other inside running play.  But I agree we're likely to remain a pass-first unit both because of the limitations of our O-line and because of the surplus experienced talent in the receiving corps.  Interesting balance for Harbaugh between doing what he most prefers and adapting to the current roster.  

Nice diary, dragonchild.

Space Coyote

August 23rd, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^

Where he brought up a very good point about the difference between "base" and "most run".

Harbaugh's base will always be a run play. That's the play that he can rely on to run at any time, and that's the play that begins to set up the rest of the offense. We may pass more than we run, we may run certain plays more than the "base", but the "base" play will always be a run and that will always set up the rest of the offense.

A smoke screen doesn't work if you can't get guys to respect the run action. Play action doesn't work if you can't get guys to respect that you may run the ball. Harbaugh runs his offense around those things. He'll tweek the numbers and turn the dials to find what works best, but it'll always be based around and setup by the run game, even if that means three yards and a cloud of dust to a degree to set up an offense that passes more than it runs. That's his philosophy and that's where he's found success. 

Ron Utah

August 23rd, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^

This is spot on, and it's somewhat surprising more people aren't saying it.  Really, this was our offense for the last six games of last year's team as well.  Harbaugh recognized that running the ball wasn't going to beat OSU, so there were loads of nifty pass plays that really should/could have resulted in more points and yards.  And even in the Florida game--which was an absolute romp--RBs only ran 41 times vs. 35 pass/QB scrambles.  That's pretty insane balance when you win by 759,985 points.

I expect to be one of the more pass-oriented offenses in the B1G season by percentage of plays prior to garbage time.  It's too much of a stregnth to ignore.

I might add that if Bredeson wins the LT job, it probably makes us even more pass-oriented, since I believe he's better in pass-pro that run-blocking at this point.

dragonchild

August 23rd, 2016 at 9:02 PM ^

I wouldn't even be surprised if we look run-heavy on paper, because that's what we'll do when we put away teams like Hawaii or UCF.

But against Penn State or Wisconsin, I think we'll run to keep defenses honest, but regardless of percentage of plays, the yards and points will be won with the passing game.  It's less about % of plays and more about who's taking pressure off whom.  Harbaugh prefers the run game to get results on its own and then use playmaking TEs as haymakers, but to start it'll be the receivers spreading the field to take pressure off the O-line.

TBH, we more or less did that last season.  Against Oregon State we had 29 pass plays to 45 rushes because that game was over in the 2nd quarter.  Against Indiana, Rudock threw 46 times while the tailbacks had 21 carries combined.

stephenrjking

August 23rd, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^

I think a baseline argument of this is that Harbaugh is interested in putting his players in situations in which they can excel, and that he will adust his schemes to do so. Contrast with, say, the leadership of Dave Brandon Al Borges and Brady Hoke, or even RR, in their insistence in doing things a certain way regardless of personnel. I think it's a good argument.

Writing style note: Using bold or italic text in your player listings is fine, though it helps to explain the meaning earlier on. The writing of this post relies a bit too heavily on italics for emphasis, though. It's just a nagging writing habit, which many of us have; one of mine is an overuse of semicolons. 

DualThreat

August 23rd, 2016 at 3:22 PM ^

Chuck it deep, 4 verts, as our base play.

Seriously though, this analysis is great.  Well thought out and presented.

I'm willing to bet at some point we see a 2 QB set.  Speight and O'Korn lined up both as QB in the backfield on the same play.  Probably against MSU.

UMinSF

August 23rd, 2016 at 4:59 PM ^

Thanks for a great, thought - provoking post.  Just for kicks, I looked at Harbaugh's last two years at Stanford for some insight regarding what we might expect going forward.

I think it's fair to say Harbaugh (and the rest of us) would be pretty happy to have an offense that runs like those teams (classicly Harbaugh-ian style, 11th and 9th in PPG nationally).

To jog your memory, both teams featured Andrew Luck and a star RB (2009 Toby Gerhart, 2010 Stepfan Taylor). Both teams had solid WR's (Owusu/Whalen/Baldwin). They also featured blocky-catchy guys; 2009 had Owen Marecic, Coby Fleener and Jim Dray; 2010 had Fleener, Zach Ertz, Marecic, and Konrad Reuland.

Looking at the stats, I found some interesting things:

First, even with Luck at QB, Stanford ran a run-heavy offense - 41 and 41 RPG, 24 and 29 PPG, respectively. MANBALL.

Second, while their running game was respectable (just over 5ypc both years), their pass offense was crazy good (around 9ypa). 

Third, Luck was ridiculous. In 2010 he completed over 70% of his passes, and ran for 450 yards, at 8.2ypc!

Fourth, while Harbaugh certainly used his blocky-catchy assets, they weren't as big a part of the offense as I remembered. In total, the above mentioned B-C guys had 60 catches in '09 and 74 in '10. Marecic had only 8 carries in '09, with 23 in '10 (but only 2ypc, so mostly in GL and short yardage). JH used his quick little WR's and Luck as rushing weapons far more often than his battering rams.

So, what does all that mean for Michigan?  Well, last year we averaged 4.2 ypc and about 7 ypa. We ran the ball 38 times/game and threw 32. Obviously Harbaugh recognized our struggle to run consistently, and took advantage of superior personnel on the passing side (OL and skill positions). He passed far more frequently than he did at Stanford - again, even with Andrew freaking Luck at QB.

If his successful Stanford tenure is any kind of guide, I imagine he will take full advantage of all his weapons, especially in the run game. Expect Peppers and Lewis and Chesson and some other guys we haven't considered to carry the ball in all kinds of creative ways. If O'Korn wins the QB job, I imagine he will play a major role in running the ball as well.

While I agree JH will run plenty of west-coast style passing plays, looking at his track record I'm in the camp that says he'll do his damndest to emphasize the run, making the passing game devastatingly effective.

Finally, especially if Speight wins the QB job, I would expect JH to use his blocky-catchy types more than ever, despite having quality WR's. I was surprised that Coby Fleener had only 21 and 28 catches in '09 and '10. Butt is much more frequently used, and with Bunting, Wheatley, Hill, Shallman, Asiasi and who knows who else, our coach has a crazy array of toys to play with. JH seems to have grown in his love for these guys, building on previous success.

This year is gonna be fun.

 

 

leftrare

August 23rd, 2016 at 5:56 PM ^

Perfect appetizer for where we are on the calendar right now.  Thanks so much.  Well done.

I have but one small quarrel with your personnel assessment: Wheatley. You went with Bunting as the #2 TE and I don't think that's how it will pan out, precisely because of what you're talking about: run strength.  I see Bunting as Butt 2.0 and Wheatley as the in-line replacement for Williams but a much better runner, catcher and blocker. I agree with Space Coyote that the base play is a run and I don't think Butt/Bunting is the right tandem for that base play.  It's TWJ.

Bodogblog

August 23rd, 2016 at 10:40 PM ^

Bunting will be a better blocker than Butt, perhaps even this year. I fully expect those two on the field at the same time. The better defender will lock down on Butt and Bunting will wreck an unsuspecting LB. He's good enough to block a SAM on running plays, making run-pass a real decision point for the defense.

PopeLando

August 23rd, 2016 at 7:25 PM ^

Loving this analysis. I also especially love having a coach who puts his players in a position to succeed, rather than "we expect you to beat a defense that is ready for you"

Mr. Elbel

August 24th, 2016 at 1:27 AM ^

don't agree with that last point. Harbaugh tended to leave in the starters who needed more reps during our blow outs last season. I can see him doing that again, especially on offense for the OL and QB.

Mr. Elbel

August 24th, 2016 at 1:39 AM ^

btw, I agree with everything else. excellent diary. just don't see him wasting an opportunity to give some guys who need improvement more reps. I guess you could say the same for the FBs and such in the run game, but I think itll remain more balanced than you think in a blow out. give all the guys who need to improve more reps. I think Harbaugh would rather do that than simply manball.

jakerblue

August 24th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^

I don't think he is saying that you are going to see the starters necessarily pulled during blow-outs. Just that he will take the foot off the pedal a bit and work on getting some weaknesses ironed out in an actual game rather than just practice, and not putting on tape more of the full offensive repertoire than needed.

ABOUBENADHEM

August 24th, 2016 at 5:19 AM ^

during submarine time. My only comment is that Harbaugh's Kryptonite for a pass first offense will be the quality of the QB play. He won't stick with a pass first strategy very long if the QB turns the ball over. A third dimension that will then quickly emerge under that situation will be the gadget stuff, i.e. end arounds, reverses, Peppers in the Wildcat, screens, etc. To me, the most under rated skill that Rudock showed last year was his movement in the pocket under pressure and his decisions about when to run/not run. If our QB does that well again this year we could be scary good.

dragonchild

August 24th, 2016 at 6:55 AM ^

I could've put that in as nuance #6, but honestly, I think betting against QB play this season is a bad bet.  People are forgetting just how little time Harbaugh had to de-program Capt. Checkdown, and how long Rudock sucked.  Even if we assume that Speight << Florida Rudock, and O'Korn is on the same level because there's supposedly a QB competition, Harbaugh's had a lot more time to get Speight, O'Korn and even Morris into shape.  We may not see anyone shredding elite pass defenses like Florida Rudock at any point in the season, but if they're comparable to UNLV Rudock (50% DSR) without the "I finished reading the playbook three weeks ago" mistakes then that'll carry the offense when he's got so many legit weapons to throw at.

Hotroute06

August 24th, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^

This is why Tyrone Wheatley Jr. is such an x-factor for this entire season. With all the other receiving weapons improved, if he can scratch his potential by midsession. Which is entirely possible, how do you stop this offense with two elite tight ends? Throw in other x-factors like Evans and peppers, a lot of defensive coordinators will be having sleepless nights when going up against Michigan. Great post !

jakerblue

August 24th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^

really fascinating take.

whether you are right or wrong about how everything plays out is irrelevant. What matters is that you seem to catch the essence of Harbaugh. He isn't going to be content running something over and over that doesn't work because he has the wrong personnel. He is going to make his schemes fit the strengths of the personnel he has.  I think this is probably why you see him succedd so quickly at each coaching stop, it doesn't matter whether or not he has guys he recrutied because he make any group of guys work.