Where will UM hoops points come from?

God damnit Zeigler...

i see dong punches in the future

from the natural flow of the offense, now that everyone is on board with the system.

I'm not saying there will be a lot of said "points."

I have to assume Morris and Vogrich improve with a full off season under their belt. I'm more worried about the rebounds.

I like what you're trying to do here and those of us who are optimists when it comes to Michigan basketball like the output of your analysis. I do have a couple of issues though:

-- Hardaway is NOT a point guard. He's a pure shooting guard at 6'5" who is known for his outside shot but not his handle. Put his minutes with the 2s and move LLP or Stu with the 1s.
-- I'm interested in how Vogrich responds next year and whether he's able to see more playing time because his shot is what they needed on the court this year instead of the bricks they threw up. Though his athleticism and D kept him on the bench. However, having his PPG jump from 1.5 to 5.0 when his minutes only jump to 10 seems a bit TOO optimistic. Look at the minutes that Morris and LLP played and neither could crack 5.0

But I do like the idea here. I think that Hardaway/Vogrich need to step up and be the bombers that this team needs and two of the four big guys need to show they are ready to play 30 minutes per game.

Ok, I'll state the obvious. Vogrich and Stu better combine for more than 8.1 points/game this year or we're fugged. Stu should average double figures by himself plain and simple.

Morgan, Horford and McLimans 20 minutes per game each. No way in hell is that happening. more likely these 3 will split 40 minutes max. Gibson only played 10 minutes a game last season.

Novak and Douglass now upperclassmen and 2 year starters getting big cuts in PT; ain't happening.

Sykes, Vogrich and Hardaway averaging 15 points in 30 minutes per game; highly unlikely, that is Manny Harris type production.

More length means better D and also better rebounding; not necessarily.

My best case scenario is getting 65-70 minutes out of Morgan, Horford, McLimans and Metrics, which will be a big improvment over the 50 minutes recieved from Sims, Wright and Gibson.

I would expect at least 90-95 minutes per game out of Novak, Douglass, and Morris

So I guess I'm looking at 35-45 minutes per game from LLP, Vogrich and Hardaway.

I mostly agree with what you are saying, but the biggest disagreement I have is your assumption that chemistry will improve. I don't think that's for certain. I see no one on this team who has stepped up to be a leader yet, and no one will know what kind of chemistry these guys have until the freshmen start gelling.

I'm hoping Morris steps up into a leadership role since Novak and Douglass didn't seem to want that role this past year. I think it's only natural for a PG to be the leader, and DMo probably has the confidence to do it. But someone needs to step up, and the rest need to work together.

This team was much better than they played this year. Simply working together would net them more wins regardless of who left and who is coming in.

Well since we are losing 52% of our offense and we scored 65 ppg then we will be scoring 33.8 ppg, right? That's what usually happens when any team has graduating seniors, right?

I don't think we'll be going with an 11 player rotation next year. Maybe we will, but I doubt it.

To be successful, we'll probably need Smotrycz to come in and have an impact (over 10 ppg?), Morris to continue to grow (I thought he played pretty well at the end of the year, but we need to see a little more scoring from him), and have Stu and Zack take a step forward - something both struggled with to varying degrees last year. Having seen a little of Morgan in HS, I'm optimistic that he can contribute some offense as well - he has a wide body, and actually has a decent offensive game as far as ten feet from the hoop. He's not Sims, but he's not a skill-less banger.

So, I'm hoping for double digits from Smotrycz, Stu, and Zack, and for Morgan and Morris to chip in around 8 a game. If we get that, we can be ok.

I've agreed with what everyone has mentioned before (leadership, minutes, etc.) The OP mentioned that Butler, NI, and Cornell playing without stars but names like Hayward, Howard, Farohkmanesh, and Ryan Wittman don't escape my memory. And they did more through the regular season besides a dream tourney run. Every NCAA champion has at least one star player on their team. The basketball team doesn't have that right now, unless someone steps up. Morris? Vogrich?

He never bought into JB's system, period. By the time he realized not transferring was a bad decision it was too late.

Da'Sean Butler said it best,

"Everybody has to buy in, and you have to get the right people," Butler said, referring to Beilein's offense, which requires discipline and precise shooting. "You've got to get the absolute right people for that system, because if you have even one person that doesn't understand or doesn't care to understand, a cancer on the team of some sort, then it can throw everything off, honestly."

Sims bought in and had a great senior year. Manny never did and will be playing in Europe next year instead of AA.

Morris will move from an adequate PG to a great PG next year and a few of the guys coming in along with those on the team will pickup the slack. Vogrich and Douglas will be deadly shooters off the pass. Douglas should never have been playing PG.

My only concern is rebounding and I hope that we don't see Novak at 4 next year instead of 3. But, who steps in to take over the 4 spot?

Douglass will be a PG at times next season, and I think he will be fine. Well not really a PG but a ball handler out of the 2 guard spot, we only have Morris, Stu and LLP to handle the ball against pressure and I think Stu is better at this point than LLP. I am expecting a big season out of Stu.

1. Novak won't play the 4
2. Darius Morris improvement
3. We can't possibly shoot as poorly from outside, even if we try

I think with the addition of size and the progress of Morris will definitely help us. I just think we will be too inexperienced to do damage in the Big Ten. I still think we have a good future though.

At least one person on the team will score double figures. no way our leading scorer averages 8 points a game. no team that makes any tournament doesn't have a leading scorer.