Where will UM hoops points come from?
With the departure of Harris&Sims, UM also loses 52% of its offense. Who will pick up the scoring slack for the Wolverines? The short answer is no one and everyone. At this point, it seems unlikely that anyone on the roster is capable of supplying 16 to 18 points per game. The more likely scenario is for balanced scoring, and not just from the 5 starters, but from as much as 11 deep. It is not as impossible as it may sound. We may have lost our big 1-2 scoring punch, but we also lost 50% of the shot attempts. That means more shots for the other guys next year and less standing around waiting for Manny to shoot the ball.>
What have we gained in 2010-2011? For starters, more height. We can field the 4&5 spots with 2 guys each that are 6’8” or taller.< More length means better D and better D means more offense. It also means better rebounding leading to more offensive opportunities. We gain everyone playing their natural positions (point guards to run the offense, scoring guards to shoot the ball and 6’8”+ guys (instead of 6’4” Novak) to guard the other team’s 4. With 6 new guys we also gain depth. And last but not least we gain chemistry. We all saw what teams with few stars (Butler, Northern Iowa, Cornell, etc.) can accomplish when they play hard and play together. T-E-A-M!
If you look at the scoring potential by position, it is reasonable to expect next years team to produce the same scoring ability. The chart below compares last years output by position with next years potential group of players. (Note: I have made some assumptions as to what positions individuals might play and the number of minutes and potential scoring average. My emphasis is more on the position’s potential considering who we have playing there and not so much on what any individual player might achieve). We will probably lose scoring at the 3 and 5, but could gain at the other 3 spots. No single player even needs to make a big leap in average. The biggest increase in this scenario is Vogrich going from 1.5 ppg to 5 ppg. No player has a higher average than 8 points (Douglass and Smotrycz).
Now, 6 of these guys are new and I have never even seen them play so I am assuming a lot. But, the thing that I like most is our potential depth. We could start a team of Morris, Douglass, Novak, Smotrycz and Morgan and spell them with Hardaway, LLP, Vogrich/Sykes, McLimans and Horford. We have shooters&slashers. We have big guys to pound the boards or to take their man outside and make them defend the 3 point shot. We will be very young and inexperienced, but hopefully they will have great chemistry and hunger. If they work hard together this summer, they could end up playing around .500 next year (and that could be better than the 2009 team did). And then in 2011 we add Brundidge and maybe another big. It’s a start.
|Position total||40||7.8||Position total||40||12||4.2|
|Position total||37||8.2||Position total||40||14||5.8|
|Position total||41.6||19.6||Position total||40||17||-2.6|
|Position total||41.8||8.8||Position total||40||12||3.2|
|Position total||42.1||20.7||Position total||40||10||-10.7|
|Source: michigan.rivals, michigan.scout|
|* Douglass (2009-2010) Min&Points split evenly between Pos. 1&2.|