Nice work, especially with the puns. We could use more puns on this site. FWIW Florida can sign as many as the SEC allows, their scholarship numbers are in Never Forget territory.
Where MIchigan's 2012 Class Will Rank on Scout
Signing day is fast approaching and anticipation is rising to fever pitch. So where will Michigan's 2012 class wind up ranked? I thought I would do a little prognosticating with a heavy dose of disclaimers. This analysis is based only on Scout, since they provide the most visibility into their ranking system. Their scoring system is somewhat arbitrary (maybe even a little silly?) and the final rankings are not profoundly meaningful, as I'm sure we all know. Still, we are just trying to have a little fun here as we bide our time ever so impatiently.
Also, I am referencing their "Commitment Tracker" which contains information some may classify as dubious. The finalist lists are somewhat suspect, and the predictions of the two analysts are arguable (some of the picks are from outside the finalist lists). So, take it all with a mountain of salt and let's have at it!
Here are the current top 10(ish):
So how might this change from now to Signing Day? Let's focus first on Michigan's prospects. Here are the most likely additions to the class and the number of points they would add to Michigan's point total:
So if Michigan were able to bring in the mother lode and sign all of these prospects, it would push their total points to 4810 (counting only top 25) and move them into the #1 slot! (if nobody else signed anyone). Of course, it is highly unlikely that Michigan will strike pure gold while everyone else strikes out, so let's look at this a bit more realistically.
It does seem likely that the Maize and Blue will add to their current commitments and a jump of 600 points or more is not out of the question. So which schools would be in a position to finish above them? This will depend on whether the other schools have roster space to add more scholarship players and how likely they are to land additional blue chips.
On the subject of how they might close, I considered how many prospects in the Scout 300 they are considered finalists for. I also make note of who at least one Scout analyst thinks they lead for. Of course, they could also sign additional players outside the top 300 and each such player would add about 75-125 points to their total. Let's look at each contender.
Alabama- With 27 commits, they can only add one more at most? (I may be mistaken, but I believe the SEC is planning to limit schools to 28 this year). They are in the running for 6 top prospects and are projected by at least one analyst to lead for two: Eddie Goldman (worth 298 points) and Dalvin Tomlinson (209). The Tide will be tough to roll.
Texas - I'm not sure how much room they have beyond their 24 commits, but they are finalists for 4 top prospects and lead for one: Dalton Santos (215). Michigan could pass them if the Longhorns come up short.
Ohio State - There is some question as to whether the Buckaroos are already over the scholarship limit. We will have to see whether or not that is an Urban myth. They are listed as a finalist for 7 top prospects and are said to lead for 2: Armani Reeves (fergodsakes no!) and Kyle Dodson (207). Assuming they stay within their limits, it would seem Michigan has a good chance to pass them up in the final rankings.
Florida - The Gators, at 20 commits, may have available space (or not; available scholarship info is hard to come by and I'm not going to turn a fun little exercise into a major research project). They are finalists for 8 top prospects and are projected to lead for two: Stefon Diggs (299) and Nelson Agholor (217). Still, Michigan should have a big enough cushion to avoid becoming gator bait.
Miami (YTM) - The Hurricanes already have 31 commits so (wait, what?!) so I really don't know what to make of that. They are listed as a finalist for 5 top prospects and projected leader for one: Tyriq McCord (208). If Miami passes Michigan in the final rankings it's time to open up yet another NCAA investigation.
LSU - Listed as a finalist for 3 top prospects and a leader for none; highly unlikely to close the gap with the good guys.
Notre Dame - Not known for oversigning, the home stretch for the Irish may be limited by available slots. They are on the finalist list of 9 top prospects but the Scout guys don't see them landing any of them. Barring unforeseen leprauchan chicanery, likely to remain behind Michigan.
South Carolina - With 24 commits in the fold, only 2 top prospects on the radar (with no projected signings) and a sizeable gap, they Gamecocks are unlikely to rise in the pecking order.
Florida State - The Seminoles are the real wild card with only 16 current commits and 9 top prospects in the wings. Four are predicted signees: Ronald Darby (300), Eddie Goldman (298), Jameis Winston (299), and Tracy Howard (298). With the ACC apparently determined to win the oversigning cup, Florida State seems to be the team most likely to close strongly. It's even possible they could jump MIchigan, but I wouldn't stick a spear in that.
UCLA - With a class of 25 already, and no projected signings among the blue chippers, the Bruins are too far back to maul Michigan in the rankings.
The Rest - Everyone else is most likely too far back, point-wise, to threaten Michigan's final class ranking. Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Georgia, Auburn and Stanford may be candidates for a strong closing stretch.
Well I hope we all had fun and are not taking this too seriously. Anyway, there is actually an outside chance that, if all the planets align properly, Michigan's recruiting class could finish with the top ranking on Scout. More likely. a third place finish seems about right. I highly doubt we could drop below the #5 spot. The one thing we can almost certainly predict is that there will be some surprises. We will all know soon enough.
Edit: - I corrected the point values associated with each recruit caused by a slight misunderstanding of Scout's formula. It was mostly just a point or two adjustment upward. More importantly, as elaydin points out, Scout only counts the top 25 recruits, so I made that adjustment as well.
Agreed. I love the boards (just joined) but feel there armani more puns we could be taking advantage of on site. Oh sure, pryor to this people were making all kinds of OSU puns, but those ones can be way overdunn--everyone just gets their diggs in when recruits drop. But while we're chesson those last minute recruits humor (as well as making sure we're following the wright twitter feeds) really helps relieve the tension.
You probably all novak by now.
Fuck you. You have now turned off everybody on this blog from your product.
So when I first logged on I was wondering why gajensen was telling me to eff off.
Then I log on to the same board through the mobile, and he was actually replying to a spamvertising type post that does not appear on the regular site. At least I hope that's who he was replying to.
So...hm... This ever happen to anyone else?
Has a hard cap of 25, it seems that Osama Bin Saban has started a Jihad against this rule.
Because it is honestly comical. Not one other team in the B1G is in the top 25 of any recruiting site. Then we have Michigan and Ohio who are going to end up in the top 5 of almost every recruiting site. Not only that but we seem to be the only schools that are willing to actually invest in our programs. That includes both Wisky and Penn State. Wisky lost 6 coaches and Penn hired an OC who really wasn't that great of a candidate. Iowa is about to drop like a lead weight bc they just don't have the talent. Indiana, Minnesota and Illinois are crap. Purdue and Northwestern seem to be content at 6-6 or a little better (which I think is perfect for them). Then we have Nebraska and MSU. They just are recruiting and investing like a 9 win team a year. Not bad, but not compared to us. It is time for the Big 2 and the Little 10 folks!
On Iowa and Wisky, they always seem to get decent enough players and have had decent enough coaching to challenge for the Big10 title. I don't see them "dropping" from this position. They recruit well enough and always seem to have tough teams.
Thanks for posting that. Scout does a great job of breaking down recruiting rankings by school, conference and even by position. Its also helpful that they assign a point value to each player.
Michigan already has the number #1 offensive line class and we still may add blue chips - Garnett and Diamond. Maybe Kozan too (low chance at this point)? Our defensive line is rated #5. Linebackers #3. DB's #10 with blue chip Reeves still a strong possibility.
There are a few things about their rankings that bothered me. One area that surprised me was the TE/WR category. According to Scout Funchess, Williams and Darboh are all 4 star rated and Chesson is a high 3 star. I'm not sure why we didn't make the top 10? Seems like a mistake on their part.
The other thing that bothered me was our conference ranking. As a whole the B1G is ranked #5. We're slightly ahead of the Big East and just behind the ACC in recruiting as a conference. I suppose it could be because Penn State is having a down year but I also think schools like Michigan State and Wisconsin are doing a poor job of capitalizing on their on-field success. Seriously little bro, 11 wins and you should be able to grab half dozen 4 star players at least?
The real problem children of the B1G are Nebraska and PSU. Both of those schools traditionally have success on the field, but both are completely laying an egg this year in recruiting. You're right about MSU, although it's pretty obvious that Dantonio was taken by surprise, given his head to head record against Hoke this season. Wisconsin has thrived lately on underrated talent (same with Iowa) so I don't think that has changed from recent years.
Ultimately, though, M and Ohio are the two premier programs in the conference, and both stack up nicely compared to the two top SEC classes this year. As long as that's the case most years, the conference will be fine.
was on the verge of a decent class before "that which has been profusely discussed" happened. It's safe to say that their ultimate low ranking is not necessarily suprising.
With Nebraska, it appears that their conference switch might be a hinderance. In the previous 4 years, they recruited 27 kids out of Texas. This year? So far, 1.
Agreed. They both have their reasons, but it still hurts. In 2008/9/10 we weren't doing the conference any favors either, even though we can mostly explain why we had those problems.
The first thing I wondered about when Nebraska joined the B10 was how their football recruiting in the state of Texas would be affected. After all, they got a lot of talent from TX, but they were in the Big 12, and they played Texas each year. Now that they don't play them or any of the other big schools from that region, it seems their TX recruiting is suffering. They'll need to get really active in Ohio, IL, and PA like the rest of the B10 does, methinks.
Scout only uses the top 25 recruits to calculate the total points.
Michigan's bottom 3 rated players are worth 59, 63, and 69 points, respectively. So you would have to subtract out these numbers as they add recruits beyond the 25 limit. The projected max point total would be reduced to 4905 (still a potential #1). Of course the same rules apply to other schools that exceed the 25 threshold.
I edited the diary to correct a minor formula error, so I should also correct myself here. Michigan's two lowest commits are currently worth 102 and 104 points. Sam Grant, at 96, would be the lowest score and will not count towards Michigan's point total if the Wolverines sign more than 25, including Grant.
I also saw the 31 commits for Miami. Can anyone tell me how this is possible? I would really like to understand this. Are they going to dump their bottom 3? Even if this is within the rules it would sure seem like their recruiting word is no good. At least to 3 guys. If I was a Miami recruit near the bottom of their list I would be looking right now for another place to play football. Even if I was closer to the top I would not want to play for a coachiing staff that is not true to their word.
I must be missing something here. No surprise really. I'm no college football recruiting genius.
I'm no expert on the inner workings of the oversigning game, but I do note that three of the 31 are listed as "soft verbals". Seven recruits enrolled early at Miami, so three of them can be backdated to last year's class. That leaves room for a total class of 28. If the ACC allows it, I think they can collect extra letters of intent, as long as they are down to 28 by August. Maybe they are expecting several non-qualifiers academically, or maybe they will grayshirt the overflow.
It will be interesting to see how many they actually sign and what happens to the overflow. Sleeze warnings are in effect.
I would bank on us securing Garnett, Reeves and Grant.
Diamond is probably a much bigger possibility with Stacey's decommit.
And I heard a rumor yesterday that super sleeper Dorian Green-Beckham is a silent commit who is actually a double-secret 5-star by all four major recruiting sites, so once you throw in that 10,000 point bonus, there's really no way we don't finish number one.
Dorial Green-Beckham's twin brother? ;-)