The weekly six selects #6 from Akron over any Michigan folks this week

1. The Six Factors

Weekly numbers first, season national rank in ()

That certainly doesn’t look like a win. Mostly thanks to the pick-six, Akron’s field position would have given an average team a nearly touchdown win. Akron handily won the early downs, edging Michigan in early conversions and smoking us in third down distance. Michigan held an edge in adjusted third down performance. Michigan’s 213 bonus yards were a strong number, but coming into the game Akron was awful and the fact that they ended as close as they did to Michigan was a major black mark for the defense.

For the season Michigan finds itself without an elite metric on offense (now that the red zone streak was shattered) and only one bad one. Thanks to some rough early down rushes, Michigan’s typical third down has been nearly 9 yards.

On the defensive side there is more variance. Preventing early conversions, third downs and red zone have all been strong areas of success for the defense. Bonus yards and third down distance haven’t been as strong. They have also faced some challenging field position, almost in the triple digits in terms of their national rank.

Legend

Field Position: A team’s expected points based on where a team started its drives

Early Conversion: The percentage of first downs' that are converted prior to a third down play

Bonus Yards: All yards gained after the first down marker

Average 3rd Down Distance: Average yards to go on third down

Adjusted 3rd Down Conversion: Rate of conversion for a team on third down, adjusted for the standard conversion rate based on yards to go, 0% is average

Red Zone: Points per red zone trip (TD’s counted as 7 regardless of PAT)

All categories except field position are based solely on plays in competitive situations (all first half plays and any second half plays where the drive begins or ends within two scores).

2. Individual Performances

Value Added, Win Percent Added

Michigan

Devin Gardner: +11, 65% (+6.5/+27% pass, +4.6/+39% rush)

Fitzgerald Toussaint: +0.6, 6%

Akron

Kyle Pohl: +4.3, +28%

Jawon Chisholm: +0.2, –10%

Conor Hundley: +0.2, +19%

So the Gardner number seems insane, right? First it will get knocked down quite a bit unless Akron turns out to be a really good MAC team, which probably isn’t happening. Without the four turnovers, the numbers are even more startling, +24 value. Less than half of his plays were of positive value on the day, but when they were, he racked up the points quickly. Fourteen plays were worth at least a point. The way he accomplishes it looks quite a bit different, but Devin Gardner’s production is beginning to look a lot like Denard’s. Lots of net production but with a lot of ugly point underneath the great top line.

3. Game Chart

So that doesn’t adequately reflect the fear I felt Saturday? On the one hand the game was never in hand until the game ended, on the other, we were never in too bad of shape. Any dips below 50% were quickly reversed but the fact that almost the whole game was played within a 25% range in the middle against Akron, yeah, let’s just stop talking and move on to the six biggest swing plays of the game.

The Six Biggest Plays from Saturday

6. –20.1%, Pohl to Smith for 14 yards to the Michigan 2 on the final drive

5. –22.9%, Pohl to Smith for 40 yards to the Michigan 1

4. +23.2%, Gardner goes for 35 yards to the Akron 35 on the final Michigan drive

3. -25.5%, Pohl to Smith to give Akron 1st and 10 at the Michigan 11

2. +26.5%, Jarrod Wilson picks off the pass in the end zone

1. +42.2%, Cable Zero Train

4. Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week

I think the myth of the value of punting is spreading. Last week I had someone making a case that punting down 15 late in the fourth quarter was a justifiable decision because the offense was struggling. I don’t care if you are playing the 85 Bears defense, punting down multiple possessions in the fourth quarter is generally an awful decision.

In the third quarter, Iowa State trailed Iowa by 13 and had 4th and 2 at the Iowa 37 and kicked away. Maybe they were hoping that Greg Davis would throw a –3 yard hitch for a safety, but that makes Paul Rhoads your week 3 dumb punter of the week.

Bonus Futile Field Goal of the Week: Kent State and Tulsa share the honor after kicking a combined five field goals against LSU and Oklahoma while trailing by at least 21 points. The odds are long on an upset, but field goals aren’t going to give you the miracle comeback guys.

5. Around the NCAA

• B1G games featured three of the top seven gaps in bonus yards on the week. Ohio State and Indiana both out-big played their opponents while Nebraska was on the wrong of the bill against UCLA.
• Oregon’s defense has stepped it up, of late, this week they held Tennessee to just 12% early conversions, forcing 3rd downs on almost every set of downs the Volunteers had. The Ducks also held Tennessee to 55 bonus yards while acquiring nearly 300 themselves before half.
• UMass and Kansas State both owned moving the chains. Both teams had over a 50% early conversion and average third downs below 4 yards per.
• Last week Bob Davie and New Mexico tore it up on the ground but facing Pitt, they faced an average third down distance of 12.9 yards, not a great position for a team that throws as little as anyone who doesn’t run the triple option.

6. UConn Prediction

The Six Factors

Although last week definitely recalibrates expectations, I think it was more about mindset as opposed to an exposure of a highly flawed team. I still believe this is a less-talented team than most assume. I still think Devin Gardner will finish the season on a lot of good lists. The first red flag for me was seeing so many new bodies rotating into the game so early. When the substitution patterns are different from the previous week, it tells me that the coaches took a mindset for the week that this was a glorified scrimmage and that is a dangerous mentality to infect a team.

For the UConn game, I think the game comes down to one question-what happens with the big plays? If they break even, Michigan wins easily, but if UConn has an edge, then it could another stressful Saturday. Against Notre Dame, Michigan took a team that was great at generating big plays and help them largely in check. They turned around and let an Akron team who barely got out of the shadow of the first down marker and allowed nearly 200 yards of bonus yards. UConn’s game against Maryland was big plays both ways. If Michigan can reflect the Notre Dame performance and break even on turnovers, it should be a big win for Michigan.

Michigan 41 UConn20