I've added the Fremeau Efficiency Index. Also added the basic data for each category (score, rush yards, pass yards, etc.), the number of possessions, and the data per possession.
Synopsis: After 4 games, Michigan is currently ranked #11 in scoring offense and #64 in scoring defense. Based on these rankings, M has a 43% chance for a +5 WLM (9-4 or better) season and an 83% chance for a winning season. Note that if Defense rankings improve just slightly to the Top 60, the probability of a +5 WLM increases to 70%. Offense continues to trend better each week. Defense improved slightly. (See line chart below.)
Based on the FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index), Michigan is predicted to win between 8.7 and 9.2 games (excluding bowl games but adjusted with +1 for M's one FCS opponent).
Based on the Fremeau Efficiency Index, M is favored by 18 points. Using the Sagarin Predictor, M is favored by 10.7 points in the Indiana game (Vegas Odds Opened at 10.5). Notice that the three Sagarin odds are very close to one another this week.
Overall this year, M is averaging 3.6 points per possession (PPP) and 49 YPP. The defense is giving up just 1.9 PPP and 33 YPP.
DETAILS: Here are the FEI numbers ( http://bcftoys.blogspot.com/search/label/Forecasts and http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei ).
GE = Game Efficiency (Basic data before SoS adjustment), MW = FBS Mean Wins for the Season, RMW = Remaining FBS Mean Wins
Note that FEI completely excludes all non-FBS data (the W-L record is only for FBS games, etc.). Therefore, you need to add 1 to the projected numbers to get the final predicted wins for M this year. The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams. I've included the GE basic data so you can see the impact of adjusting for opponent. (See: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2010/fo-basics-our-college-stats )
Here are the Sagarin Ratings ( http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm ). I have added "Opps Rank" which is the total rankings (based on Sagarin Rating)of the opposition played divided by the number of teams played.
Sagarin uses two basic ratings: PREDICTOR (in which the score MARGIN is the only thing that matters) and ELO-CHESS (in which winning and losing only matters, the score margin is of no consequence). The overall rating is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO-CHESS and PREDICTOR.
Per Sagarin: ELO-CHESS is “very politically correct. However, it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is PREDICTOR”.
Here is the U/M vs. Indiana National Statistical Rankings with the advantage for each category indicated (all categories within 10% are considered a "push"). Biggest differences are M rushing O (#2) versus I rushing D (#92) and conversely I passing O (#11) versus M passing D (#105).
Here is the line graph for Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense.
Here are the week by week National Statistical Rankings for Michigan (cumulative thru the week indicated):
I have included the major rankings for offense and defense but scoring rankings show the best correlation to winning and losing. Scoring rankings are based on PPG. Rushing, Passing, and Total rankings are based on YPG.
Here is the basic data for Michigan (each individual week followed by totals and then average per game). I've included Total Possessions for Offense & Defense along with the calculated data per possession. Number of possessions do not include running out the clock at the half or end of game. Offense Plays and Defense Plays are better indicators than Time of Possession.
Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).
Each year, of the 66 FBS AQ teams, 65% (43 teams) end up with a + WLM and 36% (24 teams) end up with a +5 WLM.