I know it won't happen, but you would think the UM-Stanford matchup could move some tickets. But based on how the standings look now, Houston is the most likely opponent, and probably a good one for this team.
Week 13 Big Ten Bowl Projections
I hear there was some football game played on Saturday or something. I wouldn't know. I was too busy sleeping off the over-indulgence of Thanksgiving leftovers. Anyone know what happened?
Well, whatever happened, it is still my sworn duty to provide you guys with a bunch of stuff other people wrote which you could just as easily look up on your own, but I know you won't, you lazy bums.
Here are the week 13 bowl projections for all our bowl-eligible Big Ten teams, whether they have coaches, don't have coaches, or kinda sorta do but not really but yeah they do hint hint nudge nudge wink wink. (Note: as of this writing, BTN and CFN/Scout have not yet updated their projections. I'll revise when they're up)
Also, this will be the final installment of the 2011 season, since I'm assuming the bowl selection show will be on Sunday night after all the championship games are over.
|Post Week 13||Rittenberg||ESPN-Schlabach||ESPN-Edwards||CBS Sports||CNNSI||BTN||CFN|
|Fiesta||Ok St||Ok St||Ok St||Ok St||Ok State|
|Orange||Va Tech||Va Tech||Va Tech||Va Tech||Va Tech|
|Georgia||S Car||S Car||S Car||S Car||Georgia|
|Insight||Iowa||Penn St||Penn St||Iowa||Iowa||Nebraska||osu|
|Care Care||Penn St||Iowa||Iowa||Penn St||Penn St||osu||Iowa|
|Ohio (NTO)||Toledo||Toledo||Ohio (NTO)||Ohio (NTO)||NIU|
So what's new, pussycat? Not much, honestly. We'll know our bowl fate on Sunday during the selection show, but right now, everyone (except for slowpokes BTN and CFN) have Michigan still projected to go to N'awlins to face Houston in the Sugar Bowl. I can live with that.
In other news, Wisco is a lock amongst the prognosticators to whip up on Sparty and head to the Rose to face Oregon. This means most folks are liking msu for the Outback, with the Cap1 opting for Nebraska (like I said, ignore the last 2 columns for now, which are populated with last week's predictions).
Pretty much everyone is also calling an osu-Florida matchup in the Gator Bowl. The Urban Meyer storyline would just be way too juicy to pass up. I'm guessing they expect Florida fans to make a strong showing with the hopes their team will beat up on their old coach's new team. Sadly, this means an Ohio-Ohio Pizza Pizza Bowl Bowl will likely no longer be in the cards. I know, I'm crushed, too. Rather, you've got either Iowa or NW there, with the other team probably in the TicketCity Bowl.
Penn St and Iowa are currently splitting votes for the Insight and Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowls (seriously - that's the real name).
Finally, you've got the sad Illinois Fighting
Zookers TBD'ers who, on the bright side, may get to go bowling in N'awlins in the Superdome!!! Woo!!! Sugar Bo... Wait, what? The R+L Carrier New Orleans Bowl on Dec 17? Well, they were close in proximity to a BCS bowl, at least....
Someone somewhere (ESPN, maybe?) mentioned that it's possible the Fiesta Bowl people take Houston over Stanford to set up a OK St-Houston shootout-to-end-all-shootouts. That would leave Michigan v. Stanford in the Sugar Bowl. This makes too much sense, though, so it probably won't happen. Not impossible, though - Houston has more that twice as many students as Stanford and isn't terribly far from Arizona.
Houston is WAY closer to the New Orleans than it is to Phoenix. Sugar Bowl organizers would probably assume that Houston fans - and Houston is a VERY big school, with almost 40,000 students and over 250,000 alumni - would show up in force, being only 350 miles away. That's like driving from Ann Arbor to Bloomington or Champaign, and is closer than Ann Arbor to State College or Madison.
In fact, Stanford (725 miles) is closer to Phoenix than Houston (1180 miles) is. Also, I don't think there would be any dearth of points scored in a Stanford-Okie St matchup.
Right, but the Fiesta gets the second at-large pick after the Sugar Bowl. So assuming the Sugar picks Michigan first, the Fiesta will have a choice of Stanford or Houston next. Everyone's assuming they take Stanford because they're in a bigger conference and would probably draw a bigger TV audience, but I don't think that's a slam dunk. Houston is a big school in a big market and the team is undefeated.
I guess we'll find out in a week.
Assuming LSU wins this weekend, the Sugar's first pick is their BCS#1 replacement pick. Assuming OK St doesn't jump Bama in the standings, then their is no BCS#2 replacement since Bama is an at large - which means that then the Sugar gets their at large picks. So if LSU wins this weekend and Bama stays ahead of OK st, the Sugar essentially gets to pick their own matchup.
I know this hurts us, but I'm still kind of rooting for Armageddon - in the way of a UGA win over LSU. Very possible that the BCS title then features two teams that didn't win their conference, OR (as Doc Sat keeps hammering) Alabama gets rewarded for losing "The Game of the Century."
I'll just root for Iowa State and SMU to pull upsets so that the night games don't matter at all for us.
From what I have read, this is wrong. Here's how CBS's guru explains it:
"If a Bowl loses a host team to the title game, then the bowl gets first choice at a replacement team. The rest of the selection order for 2012 is as follows: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange."
Assuming LSU wins and it's an LSU-Bama championship, the only bowl "losing a host team" is the Sugar Bowl, so they get first pick of the at large team. They would in all likelyhood pick Michigan. The order then reverts to the above, so the Fiesta gets the next pick (presumed to be Stanford), followed by the Sugar again (Houston) and the Orange (the Big East winner, who nobody wants).
I agree with you, though - I have a feeling Georgia's gonna win on Saturday. It's been that kind of year.
Just to be clear, I've been distinguishing replacement picks from at-large picks. The way you describe it makes it sound like that reorders the at-large picks, but your example follows the rules of what happens.
Replacement #1 (Sugar Bowl for LSU)
Replacement #2 (Only if non-SEC team is selected. Probably Fiesta Bowl for OSU if it hapens)
At-Large #1 (Fiesta)
At-Large #2 (Sugar)
At-Large #3 (Orange)
Most scenarios assume Bama goes the the championship so Replacement #2 is not necessary. In that case, most assume the order is Michigan, Stanford, Houston, WVU. What is being speculated on is whether the Fiesta would take Houston for a shoot out and leave the Sugar to choose between Stanford and WVU to play Michigan. Some say Stanford, I say WVU. If RR was still here, I'd say WVU would be a lock. If Harbaugh was still at Stanford or had come to Michigan, I'd say Stanford would be a lock. Since neither of those are true, I think it's kind of a toss up.
The other scenario is that OSU dominates OU, passes Bama in the polls, jumps to 1/2 in the computers, and is selected as the #2 to the championship game. If that's the case then Replacement #2 goes to the Fiesta Bowl, making the picking order Sugar, Fiesta, Fiesta, Sugar, Orange (sucks to be the Orange Bowl). Sugar takes Bama. Then, Fiesta gets to choose their matchup. Really, it's down to WVU, Stanford, Houston, KSU, Michigan, Baylor, or VaTech if they lose to Clemson. I would think they would pick Michigan, which would make the match up hard to choose. There are perks to WVU, Stanford, KSU, and Baylor. I think they take a Big 12 team if they are available. That leaves Houston to get demolished by Bama in the Sugar bowl (unless they pull a Utah), and WVU for the Orange. It's funny that there is actually a scenario that Stanford could get left out of the BCS.
I think they'd take WVU in that case.
Looks like the "experts" aren't that worried about us finding the top 14 in the BCS rankings. Hopefully they're right.
If the games don't take care of it for us, I think that the voters will.
There's a lot of voter love out there for Brady Hoke and the whole "Michigan is back theme". Coaches love Hoke too. That takes care of 2/3 of the BCS formula. The computers hate losses, so they will have 3 loss teams - possible for MSU, GA, OK, Baylor - below us. That takes care of the other 1/3.
Sometimes this systems works against us, sometimes it works for us. This year The System has deemed Michigan in a BCS bowl. Don't fight it. Take yes for an answer.
Assuming everything goes wrong this weekend, is the worst case scenario going to the Capital One Bowl? Could live with that, but would be very disappointed to drop to the Outback Bowl.
worse case scenario:
Georgia beats LSU but stays in the BCS top 2
Oklahoma beats OK State and OK state stays in the BCS top 4 (though this wouldn't be likely - staying in the top 4).
I agree that the worst-case scenario bowl game for Michigan will be the Cap1. Even if Michigan ends up at #15 in the BCS, which other team would the Cap1 select amongst 10-3 Wisco or msu, 9-3 Nebraska, and 10-2 Michigan? Michigan would likely be the highest-ranked team (slight possibility msu loses a very close game and stays ahead of Michigan), have their long national nightmare ended, and have fans hungry to see their team in a top-tier non-BCS bowl game. However, I fully expect Wisco to trounce msu; LSU to beat UGA; and OSU (NTosu) to beat OU, pushing Michigan to #14, at worst. The otehr question mark is Baylor/Texas. If Baylor wins, they could jump UM, so we want Texas to win. KSU losing to ISU would be icing on the cake.
The only way we see Stanford (or a team not Houston) in the Sugar is for Houston to lose their conference championship game which seems unlikely.
You should probably just assume we are going to the sugar bowl and not worry about non-BCS bowls.
There's not a terribly big difference between the Outback Bowl and the Capital One bowl, IMO.
That LSU-Alabama matchup still burns me. I know they are clearly the two best teams right now, but you'd think that precedent had been set in 2005 when Michigan was not allowed a rematch with OSU in the championship game. I guess its a perfect example of the theory that losing early is better than losing late . . .
I dont remember us being ranked so highly in the preseason that they had to say that there would be no rematch a year before it would happen.
You got me. I typed 2005 instead of 2006. Regardless, you know what I meant.
Especially when you consider Urban whining that if Michigan was selected, that really would prove there was a problem with the BCS. Also, consider Saban's 2003 comment.
In addition to these points, just think about two teams from the same division of a conference playing in the national championship; what about one loss teams who win their conference & do not get a shot? Can you really say with confidence that a one loss OSU (not ohio) is light years behind a team that did not even win its division?
....or is it a little strange for BTN to be picking a winner in the Wisconsin vs. MSU game this weekend? I mean, shouldn't the conference as an entity try to stay neutral in all of this? It's one thing for the rest of the country to disrespect Sparty, it's something else when their own conference officials do it.
that's Tom Dienhart making the picks as a sports writer. Has nothing to do with conference officials or bias.
Since it's on the BTN website, the conference needs to take responsibility. I'm just surprised that the conference would publish any kind of conjecture about its teams.
I don't think you're giving the SEC teams enough credit. I do think Nebraska should be SCar, but UGA is a tough out for MSU. Aaron Murray is probably a better QB than Cousins, and they've got some serious athletes on that team.
When you wrote that Iowa/TAMU would end badly (and I know you didn't mean it this way), I just thought, "Yeah, TAMU will have a 2-3 TD lead and blow it in the 4th Q like they've done all season"
But yeah, the bowl season should be good, although I don't know about Wisco-Oregon. If the Badgers win, that would be a HUGE boost to our conference's credibility. Likewise with wins against potential SEC opponents in UGA, SCar, and Arkansas.
for the B1G?
Mathlete, if you're reading this, do you have any statistical predictions on M's chances of getting to the Sugar Bowl (i.e., Georgia loosing, MSU winning, etc.)?
Many thanks again!
Bowl selections are based on so many things besides rankings and final records (such as how much money a school would make them, or the osu-florida story) that there is no way to find any probabilities.
the Mathlete could tell you the chances of Baylor beating Texas or the chances of MSU/Wisconsin winning, but not the impact on the human polls side of the BCS rankings.
- Love the lower case msu and osu. I see what you did there.
- Holy Mother of God, 10 B1G bowl teams. I still can't believe that we have that many teams with non-losing records. There's some piss-poor teams in there. September scheduling = B1G $$$. Yikes.
- A Nebraska - Georgia matchup would be a sweet old-school matchup. I also like the possibility of Nebraska - Oklahoma in the Orange, er, Insight bowl. This is where adding Nebraska to the B1G really pays off - in bowl season.
- OSU - FL would be fun to watch. For this to be scheduled however, the requirement needs to be that Urban Meyer must position himself prominently on the sideline within beer can range of the FL section.
If UM does not get to go to a BCS bowl, that would change the whole B1G metric. Would that send ohio to Little Caesars?