national champs baby
Warren Buffett, Toledo, and the Michigan football season
I am a contrarian. Always have been and always will be. Consider that we live in a country that elected Dubya twice, and it's not surprising that the general public can be way off base time after time.
Warren Buffett says to be greedy when others are fearful, and he, like myself, is buying stock these days. Whenever I hear the pundits raving about the Great Depression Part Deux and see downward facing red arrows running rampant, I pull out my wallet again. Right now, my Ameritrade account is looking pretty grim. A year or so from now, that won't be the case.
I'm sure it's not difficult to see where I'm headed with this. After Toledo, we were bombarded with headlines about people calling for Rodriguez's head and "first MAC loss ever" and "what happened to Michigan football?" Even our intrepid leader Brian Cook was formulating his plan to build a bomb shelter. But in the words of the immortal Lee Corso, as "acronymized" by Brian, NSFMF. Let's consider last week's embarrassment one more time. Take away the early pick-six - a small mistake with a drastic consequence - and we probably maintain a one to two possession lead the entire game. Not that we should just dismiss that interception outright - it certainly indicates our QB's penchant for brain farts - but we should rest assured that most of his inevitable future mistakes will not lead to immediate 14 point shifts. Further, if Lopata makes that field goal to tie, there's a good chance we win in OT, which would change "the sky is falling" to "Michigan has a close call."
We are now seeing Michigan as a twenty to thirty point dog in some future games. I submit that, but for a few fluke occurrences, these spreads would be half of that. Now I certainly am not saying that we're going to beat Penn State or even that the game will be close. What I'm saying is that the perception of Michigan as being the equivalent of a mid-level MAC school is inaccurate. Have we forgotten the second half domination of Wisconsin? I believe this team still has it in them to play solid football and to be competitive with just about any team in the country. When this team will start to click, no one knows. But mark my words - it will happen this season. There are more wins remaining for Michigan in 2008. Maybe even some big ones...
October 16th, 2008 at 11:39 AM | 
W and Hussein
W and Hussein
October 16th, 2008 at 11:56 AM |
You are buying into the program...
You are buying into the program...
and RR even when their stock is low. Like the stock market, give it time and let the stock rise and you will be rewarded for your patience.
October 16th, 2008 at 12:12 PM |
Well, the jabs at Bush (at
Well, the jabs at Bush (at
Well, the jabs at Bush (at least the rather oblique one here) are criticisms of his tenure in office, while constantly referring to Obama as Hussein would simply represent an ignorant attempt at a racist smear. The proper analog would be for you to constantly criticize Obama's decisions as a senator.
By the way, check Bush's current approval rating: it's not exactly radical partisan unorthodoxy that dude's been an abysmal president.
October 16th, 2008 at 7:39 PM |
Not really a racist smear.
Not really a racist smear.
Not really a racist smear. I'm sick of hearing the race card being continuously played.
Warren Buffet is right. Be Greedy.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:18 PM |
I truly hope...
I truly hope...
...that you never attended the University of Michigan. If so, they need to start requiring logic 101.
October 16th, 2008 at 12:23 PM |
Interesting
Interesting
Interesting take, and there's some relevant, anecdotal evidence of this in college football as far as gambling goes.
I am at work, so I dont have numbers at my fingertips, but I will explain in a nutshell.
If a team loses outright as a double digit favorite, you should bet on them the following week, especially if they are an underdog. They cover close to 2 out of every three times.
The thought being, those teams get called out big time in the media for their flub. Everyone jumps off the bandwagon and assumes the team flat out sucks. They must suck if they just lost as such a big favorite.
The average public bettor sees the team as a dead carcass and cant wait to beat against them. Their season is done and if they cant beat crappy team X, how are they supposed to stay close to good team Y? NSFMF.
I try to pick my spots throughout the year, but I am always looking for teams who lose outright as a DD favorite and hammer them if they're an underdog on the road the following week. Yikes, that means I like UM on Saturday.
Lord help me!
Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS
MSU/IU at the JCB
October 16th, 2008 at 1:08 PM |
But
But
You like UM means you like them to cover the 23.5 pt spread, right?
I'm
just hoping we get through the game relatively healthy and prepare for
the stretch run; show some progress in all three phases of the game.
If we lose by 28-35, so be it. ( And I never expected to be typing that sentence. )
Taking it one week at a time
October 16th, 2008 at 1:17 PM |
Well...
Well...
...there's a huge difference between liking Michigan to win on Saturday and liking Michigan to cover the spread on Saturday.
I think there's a non-zero percent chance that we lose this game by 10 touchdowns. This could be the worst beat-down the program has ever received. Even so, I don't think it is unreasonable at all to think that they will be able to cover the spread.
Now, if you're saying that you like Michigan to win outright, well, then Lord help you, indeed. I hope it happens, but I just don't see it right now. Even if the stars all align. At least against Wisconsin, we were playing a team the defense should have been fairly well oriented to stop. Against Toledo, we saw the Appalachian State problem again -- the ability of a spread offense to attack our weaknesses. This could be even more evident on Saturday.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:00 PM |
Yes,
Yes,
I am talking about UM covering vs the spread......winning the game is unlikely, but UM is in a spot where traditionally teams cover 2 out of every three times.
Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS
MSU/IU at the JCB
October 16th, 2008 at 3:58 PM |
Good.
Good.
I'll be in Tahoe this weekend and will be putting money on UM. That spread is just too juicy to pass up.
October 16th, 2008 at 12:23 PM |
Democratic Congress
Democratic Congress
The Democratic congress is to blame for all of this mess our country is experiencing....and they have a worse approval rating then "Dubya"
October 16th, 2008 at 1:07 PM |
Football isn't always like
Football isn't always like
Football isn't always like the stock market. Some coaches just go down the entire time at the helm (i.e. - John Bunting, Ty Willingham, L. Coke, etc.)
And leave politics out of it you schmuck, nobody comes to this blog to read about that.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:20 PM |
?
?
A single jab at a President with an historically low approval rating, and I'm a schmuck? Nice.
October 16th, 2008 at 3:12 PM |
I'm buying low, on Margin.
I'm buying low, on Margin.
Michigan knocks off someone big, this season.
C'monnnnnn Gods of LIBOR and RR Spreads!
M'Dog
October 16th, 2008 at 4:00 PM |
As a pseudo-political aside...
As a pseudo-political aside...
...someone (don't remember whether it was Obama or McCain) mentioned Toledo in the debate last night and I cringed, waiting for someone to mention "Oh, hey, and did you know they just beat Michigan?"
October 16th, 2008 at 6:33 PM |
"Consider that we live in a
"Consider that we live in a
"Consider that we live in a country that elected Dubya twice, and it's not surprising that the general public can be way off base time after time."
An important note here is that Bush LOST the popular vote to Gore. Therefore, the majority of voters actually DIDN'T want Bush.
Fail.
October 16th, 2008 at 9:44 PM |
???
???
Boy, that's some great insight there. I guess my entire article is a piece of shit. Thanks for enlightening me.
October 17th, 2008 at 2:51 AM |
wow... that's a remarkably
wow... that's a remarkably
wow... that's a remarkably dumbass comment..
"Consider that we live in a country that elected Dubya twice, and it's not surprising that the general public can be way off base time after time."
The jabs at this sitting President seem endless. I'm not sure what this one has to do with Michigan football, and I'm curious as to how many Americans would be offended at any reference to future President Obama as "Hussein".
I do get the whole Michigan football is the stock market analogy, except that I don't really have to buy or sell shit as a Michigan fan. My emotional investment in (and support for) this team is "all-in" regardless of their record.
"Do not disturb my circles."