I will be thoroughly shocked if Tate rushes for 1,000 yards. The rest of that seems pretty reasonable.
The following statements are dangerously biased, and they come from a result of a lifetime of trips to AA, games with my closest 110,000 friends, and too many brats soaked in beer.
You should all stop worrying so much. I know that last year had moments that made us furious, throw objects, and swear up and down for hours. This was all a necessary evil to start this new era of Michigan football. Metamorphosis is a painful process that yields amazing results. Now all the new schemes are in place. The offensive linemen know what to do and how to do it. The backs and recievers have bought in. Those who didn't buy in are gone. We have a dual threat QB to run a system that looks really awkward with a pro-style guy back there. I know Tate is a true freshman, but he fits this system like a glove. When RR unleashes this team this fall, they will start to dominate like many of his teams have in his second year. Year two is when the players stop thinking too much, and start making plays.
The wins will come in bunches this year. Michigan will have two 1,000 yard rushers (Tate, Minor). The defense will not be put in so many bad situations throughout games. They will start off beating WMU, then ND. Notre Dame beats Hawaii last year after going .500 and the whole fan base thinks they will contend for a title. Until they fire Charlie, this team isn't going much of anywhere. We gave them the ball on turnovers 9 times last year and still could have won in the 4th quarter. I almost want to type that sentence twice, but please just read it again. The "immaculate front butt" will be run out of town by January. After embarassing the golden domers, Michigan beats EMU & IU and they are sitting at 4-0.
From there, who knows. What I do know is that UM will go to a bowl game, set records on offense this year, and show everyone that the giant just took a little cat nap, and now he's ready to break some skulls. When the nation knows Michigan is back, and on it's way to global domination - the recruits will pour in faster than we can sign 'em. So my message is simple. Unwrinkle your panties, get ready for a great season, buy tickets, and join me this year in the best stadium in the world. Go Blue!!!
I will be thoroughly shocked if Tate rushes for 1,000 yards. The rest of that seems pretty reasonable.
Minor rushing for 1,000 and then Tate and Carlos Brown combining for 1,000.
If Tate runs for 500 yards, (or starts every game, completes 55% of his passes, throws more TDs than Ints) I think we should throw him a party and look forward to 3 good years of quarterbacking.
But come on, any of those things are far from a given. Frosh QBs with much better lines and receivers have done a lot less.
Also, sorry to be a wet blanket, but it is very possible that EMU, ND and MSU will all be better this year than last year. That makes me nervous.
It would be great but I don't see it happening. I am pretty confident we will improve this year but the last time I got my hopes up for a season...Appy state came to town.
call me skeptical but you make it sound like all RR has to do is flip a switch and the team will be NC contenders.
Tate is not a 1,000 yard rusher. He won't have 400 yards. He has the ability to throw on the run and move the pocket, will have a couple 15 yard runs a game to keep the defense honest. Tate is not the second coming of Juice or Dixon.
Western was a good team last year, and ND has the Clausen Tate connection entering it's 3rd year together, so we could be 2-2 just as easy as 4-0 to start the season.
The good news is the OL should be better, and so we may have two RB over 800 yards. The QB option can't possibly work worst then it did last year. The DB/LB all have one more year of experience, and the DL will still have a couple anchors. Bowl team hopefully, playing in December most likely, but another year closer to a break through and finally beating Ohio State.
but the 2009 Wolverines most-likely won't be world-beaters. I agree with most of your staements, I especially like your ND comments, but remember, our QB will be a freshman (Tate or (DR)or a coaches' son who was never really supposed to play when he signed to come here.
There will be many ups and a few downs during the upcoming season. It should be much better than '08. Not to be a kill-joy, but temper your enthusiasm until after the MSU game. Tate or DR's first road game, a hostile environment and possibly the defense's first real test. If the Wolverines are 5-0 after Oct 3, anything's possible. 4-1 or even 3-2 and there might be some tense moments the rest of the way. Either way, GO BLUE!
that would be unacceptable. He should run for close to 2,000 yards or I'd consider releasing him from his "motherfukinscholarship" (or w/e WolvinLA called those things now)
Not trying to be a dick but try breaking up your paragraph a little bit. It would be easier to understand.
As for the post itself, I agree but Tate won't rush for too many yards. I'd say that it is more likely that Tate and Denard combinwe for 1000.
He makes a good point though. We gave ND the ball so many times and STILL had a chance to win! Can you believe that? Really? It's crazy. On top of that, don't forget we had TWO freshman quarterbacks last season. To take a cliche and make it mine, two freshman quarterbacks are worse than one. Now, DRob will probably be in the fold, but I'll still take our current 2 frosh QB's than last years.
So think, we lost several close games with so many turnovers and little-to-no experience at quarterback. If only the law of averages comes into effect, our number of turnovers should decrease significantly, and combined with all the other things that are better than last year, I think we'll have a solid but not great season and surprise a lot of people, namely us.
Not to put a damper on things, but only once (1975) did Michigan have 2 1000 yard rushers. Gordie Bell (of course) and Rob Lytle were the duo.
Michigan did start a true freshman QB in 1975 Ricky "the peach" Leach.
Rick Leach opening game stats.
8 carries 30 yards
2 of 10 passing for 34 yards and 3 interceptions and 1 TD
Gordie Bell 28 carries 210 yards
Final Michigan 23 Wisconsin 6 @ Camp Randall
Me: a fired up 14 year old
I love the enthusiasm. I could see all kinds of good things like he describes happening if two things happen: the OLine looks dominant and Greg Robinson knows what the hell he's doing. And Tate stays healthy. And we don't get many injuries on D. And...aw hell. I think every one of these are good possibilities, say 50% likely, but .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 = a 6.25% chance of them all happening.
Still, I believe it all.
originally meant inspiration or possession by a divine afflatus or by the presence of a god.
I suspect you're not really serious in that prediction.
If you really think that Tate is going to rush for more yards than Pat White did in his freshman and senior years, that's simply unrealistic. For four years White was no worse than the second-best RB on WVU, behind only Slaton, and in 2008, Devine. That justified him getting almost 200 carries in both 2007 and 2008. After White and Slaton or White and Devine, there were relatively few carries available for the other running backs.
For comparison, Threet and Sheridan together last year carried the ball 118 times. So unless you're thinking that Forcier is going to run for a dramatically better ypc average than Pat White, he would have to carry the ball almost twice as many times as our QBs did last year to reach 1000 yards.
From a historical perspective, Rick Leach ran the option offense for four years, and that offense was specifically tailored to the skills of a running QB who occasionally threw the ball. That offense was NOT designed to be throwing the ball all over the place. Leach was a great QB for that system, but he never had more than 145 carries in a season, and his best single-season output was 638 net yards.
Are you really contending that Forcier is the second- or even third-best RB on Michigan? After Minor, who is he going to be taking carries from? Brown? Smith? Shaw? Sure, Tate is going to run the ball some, but with his ability to throw accurately and quickly, esp. on the run or when the pocket breaks down, he can be much more devastating by running selectively in order to set up the passing game.
Not only that, if Tate is running the ball for the close to 200 carries he would need to in order to gain 1000 yards, that means he's also not getting the ball to receivers like Odoms, Stonum, Hemingway, Matthews, or Stokes, to name a few. That hardly seems like an effective use of all the WRs we've got.
If our OL is dramatically better than last year, then I can see Forcier running for 400 or 500. Forcier is going to prove to be a wonderful athlete and competitor, but Pat White he's not, and our offense in 2009 is not going to be like WVU's in 2005-2008, either.
Compairing Tate to Sheridan or Threet when discussing yards per carry is laughable. I do remember Threet running for 50 yards on one play last year, but that was just once. It also proves that RR's system is potent in the right hands. Yes, my predictions are a little far fetched and inflated. That's why I started the post of with the disclaimer!
Here is my attempt at giving this absurd prediction some viability. Your first claim was that Pat White only got so many carries because he was the second best back on the team. That is false. You see, in the spread option, the QB has just as much of a chance of running as the superback. The bread and butter of this offense is a Shotgun read option, and the defense dictates who gets the ball. We didn't see the QB keep it very much last year because we had some statues back there. Did you watch the Spring game? Tate likes to tuck it and run, and he's got some wiggle to him as well. He will need to make sure he doesn't get creamed down field, and slide whenever possible.
Here's some statistical analysis. Let's say it is evenly distributed each game. This means he needs 83.33 yards per game. This really is two or three big yardage gains, and 6-10 small ones. If tate runs 10-15 times per game, this leaves plenty of plays for the WR's, backs and TE's. He will be an accurate passer, and his ability to run will make him all the more deadly. I also think being a true freshman will cause him to run more than pass because his composure will not be as solid as a veteran QB.
Getting back to the Pat White discussion, here are his rushing stats broken down by year. Frosh: 952 yards rushing - Soph: 1,219 yards rushing - Junior: 1,335 yards rushing - Senior 974 yards rushing. He was injured off and on his senior year (missed at least 6 quarters), and would have broken 1,000 yards for sure if healthy. Now I am fully aware that Tate has a LONG way to go to be able to live up to this compairison, but you also have to realize that RR's offense features the dual threat QB running and passing. If Pat had played at another school, I'm not sure he would have been this successful. He probably wouldn't have started four years either.
One more thing - your last statement talks about how this UM offense will not be like WVU from 2005-2008. I couldn't disagree more. It will be exactly like WVU from 2005-2008. They will run the exact same offense, and the plays will be called by the exact same OC.
First, you misread what I wrote about White. I did not say, or imply, that White's carries were limited because he was the second-best back; I said "For four years White was no worse than the second-best RB on WVU, behind only Slaton, and in 2008, Devine. That justified him getting almost 200 carries in both 2007 and 2008." Which means he got all those carries precisely BECAUSE he was such a great RB, almost as good as, and perhaps every bit as good as, Slaton and Devine.
This is why the pass/run distribution for White was relatively equal for his first three years: 05: 114/131; 06: 179/165; 07: 216/197. It was only in his last season last year that his pass attempts were significantly higher: 274/191. There were plenty of people across the country who questioned the wisdom of having White pass more than he ran, since it's no question he was a much more effective runner than passer.
The pass/run distribution for Rasheed Marshall before White was similar, and for good reason; Marshall was, like White, much more effective running the ball than throwing it. Also, like White, he was bigger than Forcier, being listed at 6-1 and 190. I know there are some questions about how big Tate really is, but I think it's fair to say he's not as big as White or Marshall. He's pretty slight, too.
As you acknowledged, Forcier is a long way from Pat White in terms of running the ball, and that's the basis for my view of how Forcier is likely to be used. White and Marshall were primarily running quarterbacks who could throw the ball, whereas Forcier is a throwing QB who can run the ball. It's a difference of emphasis. I think a better indication of how Forcier is going to be used might be Shaun King at Tulane. In his final two years with RR on the staff (according to Wikipedia), King's pass/run numbers were 363/124 and 364/156. Granted, since Tate's a freshmen it's likely he won't be throwing the ball that often, but my point is that King was much more of a throwing QB who could run enough to be dangerous and effective doing it. He was not in Marshall's or White's class carrying the ball.
If you want to say that the offense in 2009 will be exactly the same as in WVU 05-08 because they're all spread option under RR, fine. However, if you've got the QB in one offense running the ball as much or more as he throws, and the QB in the other spread option is passing the ball much more than he runs it, then there's a significant difference in how the ball gets distributed.
If I'm wrong and you end up being right, I'll be the first to admit it. It's all guesswork at this point. Tate could end up breaking his pinky in the weightroom before opening day and D-Rob could step in, becoming the new Pat White.
This is why I like this board. I'm actually having a football discussion instead of just dealing with trolls who don't even root for a particular team. I see your point of view, and it is probably more accurate than mine. Tate is a bit of a smaller guy, and his passing skills are better than his running ones. I honestly hope they run all day this year to take advantage of the senior running backs, but whatever they do it will be exciting. You're also right that D-Rob could be the guy. Who knows? This season couldn't get here soon enough.
As far as explaining what I was trying to say about how many carries the QB gets vs. the RB - I'm going to let RR himself tell you what I could not articulate. Check this video out --
What the defense does directly dictates what our offense will do. Kinda cool eh? I love listening to RR explain his offense and how simple it really is. It comes down to numbers in the box, on the perimeter, and on the edge. They can check to a bubble screen, a go, a trap, a draw, etc... The options are unlimited, but the base is simple. The fact that most defenses were designed without having to account for the QB is what makes this scheme so dangerous.
“If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough”
could see us starting out 4-0. Western will most likely be a pretty tough game for us, not much on D, but their offense could give us fits. ND will be improved but it is difficult to remember how bad we were in turning it over that game. Imagine what kind of excitement would come back to this program if we do get off to that kind of start tho!
I will not be convinced.
Or, if he gives himself a vascectomy.
but there is no way Tate is running for 1,000 yards this year. In fact I hope he doesn't because that would mean that he's putting himself out there to take brutal hits way too many times, that is unless he averages 50 YPC. His arm is too valuable for that. Now, I CAN see Minor going for 1,000, and assuming he stays healthy, Brown combining with Tate for another 1,000, or perhaps some kind of combination of Tate, Brown and another back combining for over 1,000 or SOMETHING like that. Either way, you're right about the running game being way improved because of consistency in the O-line, and backs who don't have to do so much thinking and just playing.
If I was a caterpillar and I had to get trounced by MSU, Notre Dame and Ohio State in order to become a butterfly, I'd look into becoming a moth.
Then again, having already gone through it, okay, let's move on.
and why does it say "Warning" when you earn a point?