Upset Watch: Week 8
Michigan arrives at a much needed bye week after a tough game in East Lansing. Because of the sheer number of threads on the MSU game, I’m simply going to avoid any discussion of it. Let’s move on.
For you sports gamblers out there:
|
Rank |
Team |
ATS Overall |
ATS Favorite |
ATS Dog |
|
Record |
|
1 |
LSU |
5-2 |
4-2 |
1-0 |
|
7-0 |
|
2 |
Alabama |
6-1 |
6-1 |
0-0 |
|
7-0 |
|
3 |
Oklahoma |
4-2 |
4-2 |
0-0 |
|
6-0 |
|
4 |
Wisconsin |
5-1 |
5-1 |
0-0 |
|
6-0 |
|
5 |
Boise State |
4-2 |
4-2 |
0-0 |
|
6-0 |
|
6 |
Oklahoma State |
5-1 |
4-1 |
1-0 |
|
6-0 |
|
7 |
Stanford |
6-0 |
6-0 |
0-0 |
|
6-0 |
|
8 |
Clemson |
6-1 |
5-1 |
1-0 |
|
7-0 |
|
9 |
Oregon |
3-3 |
3-3 |
0-0 |
|
5-1 |
|
10 |
Arkansas |
4-2 |
3-1 |
1-1 |
|
5-1 |
|
11 |
West Virginia |
3-3 |
2-2 |
1-1 |
|
5-1 |
|
12 |
Kansas State |
5-1 |
1-1 |
4-0 |
|
6-0 |
|
13 |
Nebraska |
1-5 |
1-4 |
0-1 |
|
5-1 |
|
14 |
South Carolina |
2-4-1 |
2-4-1 |
0-0 |
|
6-1 |
|
15 |
Michigan State |
4-2 |
3-1 |
1-1 |
|
5-1 |
|
16 |
Virginia Tech |
2-5 |
2-5 |
0-0 |
|
6-1 |
|
17 |
Texas A&M |
2-4 |
2-4 |
0-0 |
|
4-2 |
|
18 |
Michigan |
5-2 |
4-1 |
1-1 |
|
6-1 |
|
19 |
Auburn |
3-4 |
0-2 |
3-2 |
|
5-2 |
|
20 |
Georgia Tech |
4-2-1 |
4-2-1 |
0-0 |
|
6-1 |
|
21 |
Houston |
4-2 |
4-2 |
0-0 |
|
6-0 |
|
22 |
Washington |
5-1 |
2-1 |
3-0 |
|
5-1 |
|
23 |
Illinois |
3-4 |
3-4 |
0-0 |
|
6-1 |
|
24 |
Georgia |
4-2-1 |
4-1 |
0-1-1 |
|
5-2 |
|
24 |
Arizona State |
3-4 |
2-3 |
1-1 |
|
5-2 |
The Top 25 teams were 13-8 ATS last week, with last week’s Top 10 teams going 7-2. To date, current top 10 teams are 48-15 ATS (76.2% success rate; 4-1 as underdogs) and current top 25 teams are 98-60-3 ATS (61.8% success rate; 14-8-1 as underdogs). Clearly the money has been with the top 10 teams.
As typical with the Watch, we’ll review the picks from last week, noting the bad picks, and point out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it is only in Vegas. We’ll also look at two sure-fire favorites, since Michigan is on their bye week.
Be sure to check out my blog, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.
Recap:
Wins
@ Auburn (5-2) +2.0 Florida (4-4). Result: Auburn 17 Florida 6 [Props to the following for correctly predicting Auburn would cover: althegreat23, CapedBlueSader, hajiblue72].
Western Kentucky (2-4) +2.5 Florida Atlantic (0-6). Result: Western Kentucky 20 Florida Atlantic 0 [Props CapedBlueSader for correctly predicting Western Kentucky would cover].
Losses
Northwestern (2-4) +6.0 @ Iowa (4-2). Result: Iowa 41 Northwestern 31.
Idaho (1-6) +1.5 @ New Mexico State (3-3). Result: New Mexico State 31 Idaho 24.
Baylor (4-2) +9.5 @ Texas A&M (4-2). Result: Texas A&M 55 Baylor 28.
Georgia (5-2) -11.0 @ Vanderbilt (3-3). Result: Georgia 33 Vanderbilt 28 [Props to profitgoblue for correctly predicting Georgia would not cover].
Michigan (6-1) +3.0 @ Michigan State (5-1).Result: Michigan State 28 Michigan 14.
Poster Picks
CapedBlueSader used my top 25 chart to his advantage, correctly picking LSU (-17; 38-7 at Tennessee), Wisconsin (-38, 59-7 over Indiana), and Boise State (-33; 63-13 at Colorado State) to cover the points. He also added in Arizona State (+14.5; 41-27 loss at Oregon).
Number 7 had a pair of winners, with Stanford covering (-21; 44-14 at Washington State) and BYU covering, and winning (+3; 38-28 win at Oregon State).
Not to be outdone, Trebor had four wins: Virginia Tech (-7; 28-17 at Wake Forest), Alabama (-25.5; 52-7 at Ole Miss), LSU, and Ohio (+4; 17-7 win at Illinois). He also stayed away from the Michigan game, smartly.
This Week
Week 8 kicks off with UCLA visiting Arizona, now coached by Tim Kish (9:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3); Arizona has won four straight in the series, and the home team has won 5 of the last 7. On Friday, upstart Rutgers visits Louisville (9:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). After home team won four straight from 2005-2008, the road team has won the last two. Since 2008, the average score differential has been 30 in this series.
Saturday football kicks off with (#20) Auburn visiting (#1) LSU (3:30 PM EST/CBS) in what will be LSU’s last game before the showdown with Alabama. (#6) Wisconsin visits (#16) Michigan State for the second straight year (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3); the home team has won 6 straight. At the same time, (#25) Washington will pay a visit to (#8) Stanford (8:00 PM EST/ABC).
Upset Watch
Cincinnati (5-1) +3.0 @ South Florida (3-2). Since 2003, Cincinnati is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS against South Florida.Since2005, when South Florida joined the Big East, the Bulls are 52-31 overall, but only 20-24 in conference play, including 3-7 in their last 10 games (wins were by 3, 1, and 8 points). This is not a good match up for South Florida, as Cincinnati has the 4th best run defense and a good quarterback in Zach Collaros. Cincinnati’s pass defense is questionable, but so is South Florida QB BJ Daniels (8-to-3 TD to INT ratio). Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS, 0-1 as a dog, while South Florida is 3-3 ATS, 2-3 as a favorite. Take Cincinnati to cover the points.
Oregon State (1-5) +3.0 @ Washington State (3-3).Since 1999, Oregon State is 9-2 ATS against Washington State; the home team has won 1 of the last five meetings. With Washington State, Coach Paul Wulff is 21-22 ATS, 15-15 ATS in PAC-10/12 play, 10-12 ATS at home, and 3-1 as a favorite. Coach Wulff is 3-27 in conference play; Washington State is much improved from last year, but Oregon State has found their QB in freshman Sean Mannion (1588 passing yards, 65.0% completion, and 5 passing TDs), who took over for Ryan Katz during the Wisconsin game. Freshman RB Malcolm Agnew is healthy now for Oregon State. The Oregon State pass defense is a concern, and the facing a good Washington State pass offense is a bad matchup for them, but Oregon State’s bad numbers are somewhat a byproduct of facing Wisconsin, Arizona State, and BYU. Take Oregon State to cover the points.
@ Florida Atlantic (0-6) +6.5 Middle Tennessee (1-4). This is Florida Atlantic’s second game in their home stadium; they were on the Watch last week, as a favorite to lose, and they did, 20-0 to Western Kentucky. Since 2004, Florida Atlantic is 3-4 ATS against Middle Tennessee, and 2-5 SU. Middle Tennessee Coach Rick Stockstill is 33-30 SU, 32-32-1 ATS, and 6-4-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 6-12 ATS and 1-3 ATS as a road favorite since the beginning of 2010. Florida Atlantic Coach Howard Schnellenberger is 29-39 SU, 27-37-2 ATS, and 5-5 ATS as a home underdog since 2006, including 5-12-1 ATS and 1-2 ATS as a home underdog since the beginning of 2010. Florida Atlantic ranks 119th in total offense (116th rushing, 111th passing), Middle Tennessee is 21st (50th rushing, 17th passing). Florida Atlantic ranks 63rd in total defense (72nd rushing, 68th passing); Middle Tennessee is 108th (105th rushing, 90th passing). Name of the Year candidate, LB Yourhighness Morgan, and the Owls look to win their first game in their new stadium, after being embarrassed last week. Take the Owls to cover.
Georgia Tech (6-1) +3.0 Miami (FL) (3-3).Georgia Tech is 4-4 SU versus Miami (FL), losing two straight, and 4-4 ATS. The team who has had more rushing yards in this game is 6-2. Both teams have questionable run defenses and Miami (FL) is the more balanced team. Georgia Tech’s option offense has been known to give teams fits, ranked 2nd in the nation, and has a very favorable matchup against the 94th defense against the run in Miami (FL). Miami (FL) Coach Al Golden is 30-37 SU, 36-27-2 ATS, and 9-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2006 (Temple ’06-’10), including 3-3 ATS and 1-2 ATS as a home favorite with Miami (FL). Georgia Tech Coach Paul Johnson is 32-15 SU, 24-18-3 ATS, and 7-3 ATS as a road underdog in Atlanta, including 9-8-3 ATS and 3-1 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of 2010. Take Georgia Tech with the points.
Marshall (3-4) +22.0 @ Houston (6-0).These teams have met twice in recent years, with the contests being split; Marshall is 2-0 ATS against Houston. Houston Coach Kevin Sumlin is 29-16 SU, 21-21-2 ATS, and 10-5-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 7-10-1 ATS and 4-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of 2010. Marshall Coach Doc Holliday is 8-11 SU, 8-10-1 ATS, and 4-5-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 5-2 ATS and 3-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. While Houston has been dominant in conference play with Case Keenum starting at quarterback 20-7, they are only 14-12-1 ATS with him starting under center in C-USA (7-4-1 since 2009). Houston has the nation’s top offense (1st passing, 51st rushing) while Marshall has the 84th passing defense. Houston has averaged 45.2 points/game against FBS opponents, Marshall has averaged giving up 25.2 points/game (18.7 in C-USA). This will be Marshall’s toughest matchup to date, Despite that, take Marshall with the points, as Houston’s defense is very shaky – 71st overall (71st rushing, 72nd passing).
Sure-fire Favorites
Wisconsin (6-0) -7.5 @ Michigan State (5-1).The opening line for this game was 7. Wisconsin’s last win in East Lansing was 2002; since then, the home team has won 6 straight. Since 1999, Wisconsin is 6-4 ATS against Michigan State. Last year, both teams were ranked, Wisconsin was a 1 point favorite, but they lost 34-24. Coach Dantonio is 29-25-4 ATS and 1-2-1 as a home underdog against the spread at Michigan State, including 8-6 ATS since the Wisconsin game last year. Coach Bret Bielema is 38-30 ATS and 10-9 as a road favorite, including 12-2 ATS and 3-0 as a road favorite since the Michigan State game last year. Wisconsin is a more high-powered offense, averaging 48.4 points/game against FBS opponents) than Michigan (35.6 points/game) and Notre Dame (32.3 points/game). Michigan State does boast the top defense in the country, and they shutdown Michigan, the best offense to date, but do you really think they can shutdown RB James C. White (416 rushing yards, 6.0/carry, and 4 rushing TDs), RB Montee Ball (653 rushing yards, 6.1/carry, and 16 rushing TDs), WR Nick Toon (447 receiving yards, 17.9/catch, and 6 receiving TDs), AND QB Russell Wilson (1557 passing yards, 74.2% completion, 16 total TDs)?
@ Alabama (7-0) -29.0 Tennessee (3-3).The Third Saturday in October. Since 1997, Alabama is 6-8 SU against Tennessee and 7-7 ATS, but Alabama has won four straight over their rivals (3-1 ATS over that stretch). The team that has more rushing yards in the game is 10-4 SU (team with more rushing yards is 10-4 ATS). Alabama Coach Nick Saban is 50-11 SU, 36-22-2 ATS, and 16-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 21-15-2 ATS and 8-8-1 ATS as a home favorite in the SEC. Tennessee Coach Derek Dooley is 9-10 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, and 2-2 ATS as a road underdog, including 5-6 ATS and 2-2 ATS as a road underdog in the SEC. Tennessee’s stats are deceiving, ranked 72nd in total offense (114th in rushing; 24th in passing), as they have lost multiple key players, including QB Tyler Bray (1579 passing yards, 65.9% completion, and 14 passing TDs)—broken thumb, out until Vanderbilt or Kentucky game; WR Justin Hunter (314 receiving yards, 18.5/catch, and 2 receiving TDs)—torn ACL in left knee, out for season; and RB Tauren Poole (395 rushing yards, 4.1/carry, and 2 rushing TDs)—now healthy, but missed part of Georgia game. The Vols defense is 69th (159.67/game) against the rush (compared with Arkansas 95th- 188.67/game; Florida 37th-120.71/game; Vanderbilt 27th-109.67/game; and Ole Miss 115th-225.67/game). The Tide rushed for 197 yards against Arkansas, 226 against Florida, 153 against Vanderbilt, and 389 against Ole Miss. Alabama has a week off before the LSU game, so there should be little concern about Alabama overlooking Tennessee.‘Bama gonna roll.
Who ya got?
October 19th, 2011 at 1:06 AM ^
I think Wisconsin wins, but that co@k Dantonio is dragging his feet on a suspension (as he does when a good team is up or allows the suspended player back for a good team). So ATS I would say Spartans if it goes +9 or higher, which I think it will. Dantonio is a liar like Tressel. He fosters piss poor integrity and that is sad. I used to root for sparty when they didn't play Michigan, but now they are on my shit list just above Ohio U.
October 19th, 2011 at 3:04 PM ^
Ugh, I was a rare Dan Persa 98-yard pick six away from 5-0. I should have known that Northwestern's defense was too bad to follow the "Northwestern owns Iowa lately" pattern. At least I'm now 11-9 on the season.
Anyway, my five picks this week (thankfully I can just sit and relax and watch games without worrying so much about whether Michigan is going to give me a heart attack before I hit 30 [also note that all lines come from http://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline_ncaaf.html]):
Illinois (-4) - A tough week last week for the Zooker, but Purdue isn't Ohio State. Unless Zook keeps up with these dumb kicking decisions.
Oklahoma State (-7) - Missouri isn't that good this year, and a big Okie State win makes the Bedlam game at the end of the season loom even larger.
Nebraska (-25) - I hate playing huge lines like this, but Minnesota lost by 58 to Michigan and 28 to Purdue. If they stay within 5 TDs of the Huskers, even in friendlier confines, I will be surprised.
Northwestern (+4) - Purdue showed that, while Penn State's defense is good, it's not a world-beating Alabama/LSU defense. Persa's at home, and he's got to be angry at dropping back-to-back-to-back games to Illinois, Michigan and Iowa. Northwestern's defense is bad, but it's not like Penn State's offense is much tougher than a down-filled pillow.
Oregon (-30.5) - Again, huge spread, but if anyone can fly past this by halftime, it's Oregon. They'll probably be missing TheMichael James and Darron Thomas, but Colorado is missing real, actual football players.
October 19th, 2011 at 6:49 PM ^
ark -16 vs ole miss
wash st. -3 vs oreg st
texas tech +29 vs. OU
wmu -12 vs emu
n ill -14 vs buffalo
October 19th, 2011 at 10:08 PM ^
Hate to say it, but I think Sparty fairs better than we think. I pick Sparty to cover, but Wisconsin wins a close one 30 -24.
October 19th, 2011 at 10:39 PM ^
I'll try to recover with:
Cincy to win straight up over USF
Wisky by 25 over Sparty
Northwestern to upset JoePa
October 19th, 2011 at 10:55 PM ^
This is the make or break for me with Northwestern; if they don't cover this week, I'm done with them.
Unfortunately, history isn't on Northwestern's side. Northwestern is 4-6 ATS against Penn State since 1997, 2-8 SU. Northwestern has lost 4 straight to Penn State and 3 straight ATS against the Lions.
My only reluctance with the MSU/Wisconsin matchup is that the home team has won six straight, but I tend to think Wisconsin breaks that streak, and covers.
Cinci is a good pick, USF has been awful in Big East play. They are 52-32 overall since entering the Big East in 2005, but only 20-24 in conference play, including 2-4 against Cinci in Big East play. Cinci is 6-2 ATS against USF since 2003, 5-3 SU.
October 20th, 2011 at 2:18 PM ^
Wagering -- even of the hypothetical variety -- shouldn't be guded by emotions. Nonethless I've got to back up M_i_s on two of his picks, perhaps for purely emotional reasons: Wisky is going to crush MSU. 17 points would have me hemming and hawing, but not 7. Secondly, yeah, cincy rolls of South Florida, who'll get no bounce from having sparty return to them their uniforms.
As of rmy own picks:
Favorite beating the spread: Virginia Tech (-20.5) over BC, in Blacksburg.
Dog beating the spread: USC (getting 8.5) against Notre Dame. i see Notre Dame winning, but in a last-possession-type of game.
Dog to win outright: Hmm. Very few home dogs look enticing. Northwestern's D is just bad enough that even O-less Penn State will probably spoil their homecoming (so NOT that game). Utah (+ 1.5 at Cal) would be alright if Utah hadn't been killing me all year (so NOT that game either). I already picked Cincy above, so maybe that should count for something. But, to be a sport, I'll pick Rutgers to win under the lights in Louisville onFriday night.
October 21st, 2011 at 1:19 PM ^
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