Upset Watch: Week 8

Michigan arrives at a much needed bye week after a tough game in East Lansing. Because of the sheer number of threads on the MSU game, I’m simply going to avoid any discussion of it. Let’s move on.

For you sports gamblers out there:

The Top 25 teams were 13-8 ATS last week, with last week’s Top 10 teams going 7-2. To date, current top 10 teams are 48-15 ATS (76.2% success rate; 4-1 as underdogs) and current top 25 teams are 98-60-3 ATS (61.8% success rate; 14-8-1 as underdogs). Clearly the money has been with the top 10 teams.

As typical with the Watch, we’ll review the picks from last week, noting the bad picks, and point out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it is only in Vegas. We’ll also look at two sure-fire favorites, since Michigan is on their bye week.

Be sure to check out my blog, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

@ Auburn (5-2) +2.0 Florida (4-4). Result: Auburn 17 Florida 6 [Props to the following for correctly predicting Auburn would cover: althegreat23, CapedBlueSader, hajiblue72].

Western Kentucky (2-4) +2.5 Florida Atlantic (0-6). Result: Western Kentucky 20 Florida Atlantic 0 [Props CapedBlueSader for correctly predicting Western Kentucky would cover].

Losses

Northwestern (2-4) +6.0 @ Iowa (4-2). Result: Iowa 41 Northwestern 31.

Idaho (1-6) +1.5 @ New Mexico State (3-3). Result: New Mexico State 31 Idaho 24.

Baylor (4-2) +9.5 @ Texas A&M (4-2). Result: Texas A&M 55 Baylor 28.

Georgia (5-2) -11.0 @ Vanderbilt (3-3). Result: Georgia 33 Vanderbilt 28 [Props to profitgoblue for correctly predicting Georgia would not cover].

Michigan (6-1) +3.0 @ Michigan State (5-1).Result: Michigan State 28 Michigan 14.

Poster Picks

CapedBlueSader used my top 25 chart to his advantage, correctly picking LSU (-17; 38-7 at Tennessee), Wisconsin (-38, 59-7 over Indiana), and Boise State (-33; 63-13 at Colorado State) to cover the points. He also added in Arizona State (+14.5; 41-27 loss at Oregon).

Number 7 had a pair of winners, with Stanford covering (-21; 44-14 at Washington State) and BYU covering, and winning (+3; 38-28 win at Oregon State).

Not to be outdone, Trebor had four wins: Virginia Tech (-7; 28-17 at Wake Forest), Alabama (-25.5; 52-7 at Ole Miss), LSU, and Ohio (+4; 17-7 win at Illinois). He also stayed away from the Michigan game, smartly.

This Week

Week 8 kicks off with UCLA visiting Arizona, now coached by Tim Kish (9:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3); Arizona has won four straight in the series, and the home team has won 5 of the last 7. On Friday, upstart Rutgers visits Louisville (9:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). After home team won four straight from 2005-2008, the road team has won the last two. Since 2008, the average score differential has been 30 in this series.

Saturday football kicks off with (#20) Auburn visiting (#1) LSU (3:30 PM EST/CBS) in what will be LSU’s last game before the showdown with Alabama. (#6) Wisconsin visits (#16) Michigan State for the second straight year (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3); the home team has won 6 straight. At the same time, (#25) Washington will pay a visit to (#8) Stanford (8:00 PM EST/ABC).

Upset Watch

Cincinnati (5-1) +3.0 @ South Florida (3-2). Since 2003, Cincinnati is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS against South Florida.Since2005, when South Florida joined the Big East, the Bulls are 52-31 overall, but only 20-24 in conference play, including 3-7 in their last 10 games (wins were by 3, 1, and 8 points). This is not a good match up for South Florida, as Cincinnati has the 4^th best run defense and a good quarterback in Zach Collaros. Cincinnati’s pass defense is questionable, but so is South Florida QB BJ Daniels (8-to-3 TD to INT ratio). Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS, 0-1 as a dog, while South Florida is 3-3 ATS, 2-3 as a favorite. Take Cincinnati to cover the points.

Oregon State (1-5) +3.0 @ Washington State (3-3).Since 1999, Oregon State is 9-2 ATS against Washington State; the home team has won 1 of the last five meetings. With Washington State, Coach Paul Wulff is 21-22 ATS, 15-15 ATS in PAC-10/12 play, 10-12 ATS at home, and 3-1 as a favorite. Coach Wulff is 3-27 in conference play; Washington State is much improved from last year, but Oregon State has found their QB in freshman Sean Mannion (1588 passing yards, 65.0% completion, and 5 passing TDs), who took over for Ryan Katz during the Wisconsin game. Freshman RB Malcolm Agnew is healthy now for Oregon State. The Oregon State pass defense is a concern, and the facing a good Washington State pass offense is a bad matchup for them, but Oregon State’s bad numbers are somewhat a byproduct of facing Wisconsin, Arizona State, and BYU. Take Oregon State to cover the points.

@ Florida Atlantic (0-6) +6.5 Middle Tennessee (1-4). This is Florida Atlantic’s second game in their home stadium; they were on the Watch last week, as a favorite to lose, and they did, 20-0 to Western Kentucky. Since 2004, Florida Atlantic is 3-4 ATS against Middle Tennessee, and 2-5 SU. Middle Tennessee Coach Rick Stockstill is 33-30 SU, 32-32-1 ATS, and 6-4-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 6-12 ATS and 1-3 ATS as a road favorite since the beginning of 2010. Florida Atlantic Coach Howard Schnellenberger is 29-39 SU, 27-37-2 ATS, and 5-5 ATS as a home underdog since 2006, including 5-12-1 ATS and 1-2 ATS as a home underdog since the beginning of 2010. Florida Atlantic ranks 119^th in total offense (116^th rushing, 111^th passing), Middle Tennessee is 21^st (50^th rushing, 17^th passing). Florida Atlantic ranks 63^rd in total defense (72^nd rushing, 68^th passing); Middle Tennessee is 108^th (105^th rushing, 90^th passing). Name of the Year candidate, LB Yourhighness Morgan, and the Owls look to win their first game in their new stadium, after being embarrassed last week. Take the Owls to cover.

Georgia Tech (6-1) +3.0 Miami (FL) (3-3).Georgia Tech is 4-4 SU versus Miami (FL), losing two straight, and 4-4 ATS. The team who has had more rushing yards in this game is 6-2. Both teams have questionable run defenses and Miami (FL) is the more balanced team. Georgia Tech’s option offense has been known to give teams fits, ranked 2^nd in the nation, and has a very favorable matchup against the 94^th defense against the run in Miami (FL). Miami (FL) Coach Al Golden is 30-37 SU, 36-27-2 ATS, and 9-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2006 (Temple ’06-’10), including 3-3 ATS and 1-2 ATS as a home favorite with Miami (FL). Georgia Tech Coach Paul Johnson is 32-15 SU, 24-18-3 ATS, and 7-3 ATS as a road underdog in Atlanta, including 9-8-3 ATS and 3-1 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of 2010. Take Georgia Tech with the points.

Marshall (3-4) +22.0 @ Houston (6-0).These teams have met twice in recent years, with the contests being split; Marshall is 2-0 ATS against Houston. Houston Coach Kevin Sumlin is 29-16 SU, 21-21-2 ATS, and 10-5-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 7-10-1 ATS and 4-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of 2010. Marshall Coach Doc Holliday is 8-11 SU, 8-10-1 ATS, and 4-5-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 5-2 ATS and 3-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. While Houston has been dominant in conference play with Case Keenum starting at quarterback 20-7, they are only 14-12-1 ATS with him starting under center in C-USA (7-4-1 since 2009). Houston has the nation’s top offense (1^st passing, 51^st rushing) while Marshall has the 84^th passing defense. Houston has averaged 45.2 points/game against FBS opponents, Marshall has averaged giving up 25.2 points/game (18.7 in C-USA). This will be Marshall’s toughest matchup to date, Despite that, take Marshall with the points, as Houston’s defense is very shaky – 71^st overall (71^st rushing, 72^nd passing).

Sure-fire Favorites

Wisconsin (6-0) -7.5 @ Michigan State (5-1).The opening line for this game was 7. Wisconsin’s last win in East Lansing was 2002; since then, the home team has won 6 straight. Since 1999, Wisconsin is 6-4 ATS against Michigan State. Last year, both teams were ranked, Wisconsin was a 1 point favorite, but they lost 34-24. Coach Dantonio is 29-25-4 ATS and 1-2-1 as a home underdog against the spread at Michigan State, including 8-6 ATS since the Wisconsin game last year. Coach Bret Bielema is 38-30 ATS and 10-9 as a road favorite, including 12-2 ATS and 3-0 as a road favorite since the Michigan State game last year. Wisconsin is a more high-powered offense, averaging 48.4 points/game against FBS opponents) than Michigan (35.6 points/game) and Notre Dame (32.3 points/game). Michigan State does boast the top defense in the country, and they shutdown Michigan, the best offense to date, but do you really think they can shutdown RB James C. White (416 rushing yards, 6.0/carry, and 4 rushing TDs), RB Montee Ball (653 rushing yards, 6.1/carry, and 16 rushing TDs), WR Nick Toon (447 receiving yards, 17.9/catch, and 6 receiving TDs), AND QB Russell Wilson (1557 passing yards, 74.2% completion, 16 total TDs)?

@ Alabama (7-0) -29.0 Tennessee (3-3).The Third Saturday in October. Since 1997, Alabama is 6-8 SU against Tennessee and 7-7 ATS, but Alabama has won four straight over their rivals (3-1 ATS over that stretch). The team that has more rushing yards in the game is 10-4 SU (team with more rushing yards is 10-4 ATS). Alabama Coach Nick Saban is 50-11 SU, 36-22-2 ATS, and 16-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 21-15-2 ATS and 8-8-1 ATS as a home favorite in the SEC. Tennessee Coach Derek Dooley is 9-10 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, and 2-2 ATS as a road underdog, including 5-6 ATS and 2-2 ATS as a road underdog in the SEC. Tennessee’s stats are deceiving, ranked 72^nd in total offense (114^th in rushing; 24^th in passing), as they have lost multiple key players, including QB Tyler Bray (1579 passing yards, 65.9% completion, and 14 passing TDs)—broken thumb, out until Vanderbilt or Kentucky game; WR Justin Hunter (314 receiving yards, 18.5/catch, and 2 receiving TDs)—torn ACL in left knee, out for season; and RB Tauren Poole (395 rushing yards, 4.1/carry, and 2 rushing TDs)—now healthy, but missed part of Georgia game. The Vols defense is 69^th (159.67/game) against the rush (compared with Arkansas 95^th- 188.67/game; Florida 37^th-120.71/game; Vanderbilt 27^th-109.67/game; and Ole Miss 115^th-225.67/game). The Tide rushed for 197 yards against Arkansas, 226 against Florida, 153 against Vanderbilt, and 389 against Ole Miss. Alabama has a week off before the LSU game, so there should be little concern about Alabama overlooking Tennessee.‘Bama gonna roll.

Who ya got?