Upset Watch: Week 2

Submitted by Maize_in_Spartyland on

[Ed-M: Bump. Keep it up, but one space after a period is plenty kthx /generation that never used a typewriter]

Last week I posted five games to keep an eye on for potential upsets/spread-beaters.  I intended the post as a one-time thing, but the numerous responses made me re-think the approach.  As long as there is interest, I’ll try to post this once a week, with five games I have my eye on, and a re-cap of the previous weeks picks (because I HATE it when prognosticators cannot admit when they are wrong).

Last Week:

@ Baylor +6.5 TCU.  Result: Baylor 50 TCU 48. [Props to: Lets Get Denarded, AMazinBlue.]

James Madison OFF @ North Carolina.  Result: North Carolina 42 James Madison 10.

UCLA +3.0 @ Houston.  Result: Houston 38 UCLA 34.  [EDIT Props to: dennisblundon, AMazinBlue for calling for Houston to cover as the favorite.]

Tulsa +25.0 @ Oklahoma. Result: Oklahoma 47 Tulsa 14.

Marshall +22.5 @ West Virginia. Result: West Virginia 34 Marshall 13.  [Props to: cadmus2166.]

A couple MgoBlogeittes (?) mentioned South Florida over Notre Dame. Props to: Indiana Blue, Purple Stuff, hart20, PaperEater.

Unlike Week 1, Week 2 brings along some more “legitimate matchups.”  In Week 1, FBS opponents were 36-2 against their FCS counterparts, with Duke and Oregon State being the FBS victims.  This week there are only 20 games between FCS and FBS teams.  Anyone have any thoughts on potential upsets (or at least teams to keep an eye on)?  A couple potential upsets (or at least close games):

Florida International +4.0 @ Louisville.  Louisville is 14-3 at home against non-conference opponents since 2005.  Florida International is 1-8 in road openers, with the lone win being over Youngstown State in 2004.  Louisville struggled against the Racers last week, failing to cover the 29 point spread.  Darriet Perry and T.Y. Hilton looked impressive in an opening conference win over North Texas, combining for three touchdowns.  Florida International will find it tough to put up 40+ points again this week, facing a much better defense in Louisville, but they shouldn’t need that many to get a win.

@ Georgia +2.5 South Carolina. Bulldogs have won two of the last three meetings and seven of the last nine.  South Carolina last won Between the Hedges in 2007.  South Carolina is coming off a 56-37 win over East Carolina, after starting down 17-0.  Neither Connor Shaw nor Stephen Garcia were impressive against ECU.  While Georgia is coming off a devastating loss to Boise, Georgia has a chance to win the SEC East, having South Carolina and Mississippi State at home.  Opening 0-2 will make Coach Richt’s seat all the more warm.

Connecticut +2.5 @ Vanderbilt.  Connecticut is coming off a BCS appearance.  Vanderbilt is coming off a 2-10 season.  Since 2001, Vanderbilt is 6-14 at home as a favorite against the spread.  Connecticut is 22-19 on the road as an underdog against the spread over the same stretch.  DJ Shoemate did not play against Fordham last week; Lyle McCombs ripped through Fordham for 141 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Utah +9.0 @ USC. Last meeting was in 2001, with Utah winning 10-6 in the Las Vegas Bowl.  USC is coming off a 19-17 win over Minnesota in which USC led at halftime 19-3.  Coach Kiffin lifted the suspension of RB Marc Tyler, who is expected to play this week.  USC’s lack of depth, attributed to NCAA imposed probation, will be an issue in numerous games this season.  Facing a veteran QB with plenty of WR depth will be no easy task for USC.

Boston College +7.0 @ UCF. Last meeting was in 2008, with Boston College winning 34-7.  Boston College is 10-5 at home under Coach Spaziani, but only 5-5 on the road.  UCF is 25-19 at home under Coach O’Leary and 25-13 at home since 2005 (UCF went 0-11 in 2004, O’Leary’s first season).  UCF is 9-3 at home as a favorite against the spread since 2009, including a 62-0 win over Charleston Southern last week.  With that said, Boston College has a solid defense, having averaged over 3 sacks per game against top 25 teams last year.  Look for the Eagles to keep this one close.

Thoughts?

Comments

orobs

September 6th, 2011 at 11:14 PM ^

I like Michigan over Notre Dame (which, apparently is an upset in Vegas despite an unprecendented home field advantage and an ND loss @ home to a mediocre team)

Volverine

September 6th, 2011 at 11:22 PM ^

I'll take both of my schools to win this weekend. Michigan over ND  (and I don't even think it will be that close) and I'll take Tennessee's ridiculous passing offense over Cincinnati in a high-scoring game at Neyland.

Maize_in_Spartyland

September 6th, 2011 at 11:39 PM ^

Cinci has a good offense between Pead, Collaros and Woods.  I think you'll be surprised at how much Tennessee's line will improve over the course of the next few games.  Vols finally have some stability at HC and Dooley has done a good job in Knoxville.

Unofficially, the over/under from Tennessee/Montana was 53, with the line being Tennessee by 25.5.  That puts the Vegas projected final at roughly 39-14.  Final was 42-16 (2 of the 16 came from a safety).  That's pretty close to the 39-14, if you ask me.

Volverine

September 7th, 2011 at 1:20 AM ^

Wow great breakdown man. We'll see. Believe me, I would love to believe in the Vols D-line but I just didn't see much lady Saturday. I remember Collaros looking great when Pike got hurt two years ago and so he scares me. I think Neyland is a tough place to play, though. Can't wait for Saturday so we can see how the D looks.

dennisblundon

September 6th, 2011 at 11:23 PM ^

If I had to pick one, it would be Utah +9. USC just doesn't seem to have it yet the public will continue to be them as if they do. I think Utah wins this one straight up and I think that USC has to make a late charge to make this one look close.

South Carolina will find a way to beat Georgia as well. The talent is about even but the old ball coach continues to find ways to pull wins out of his ass. Also it seems the last few years Richt's teams have started slow out of the gate to begin the season. Georgia gets beat soundly and the Boise win loses a bit of luster. Sound a bit like Va. Tech last year?

PurpleStuff

September 6th, 2011 at 11:29 PM ^

I don't know much about Utah, but I don't see the Trojans blowing out anybody at this point with the issues at running back and on the offensive line (not to mention depth overall).  If they win it should definitely be closer than 9. 

And the betting public has definitely overrated them of late.  SC is 9-18 ATS the last two plus years. 

hart20

September 6th, 2011 at 11:33 PM ^

Honestly, I don't see much in terms of upsets this week. Technically, Michigan over ND is an upset, but I don't think that really counts. But I'm going to have to choose Georgia over South Carolina. South Carolina was weak last week, and I think that Georgia is going to pull it out. So, upset #1) Michigan over ND. Upset #2) Georgia over #12 South Carolina.

AMazinBlue

September 6th, 2011 at 11:53 PM ^

I like BYU to upset Texas.

I think Utah will beat USC

Georgia will bounce back and beat S. Caroliina

Going out on a limb: Air Force shocks TCU

And the non-upset upset, Michigan handles ND Under the Lights.

 

One Inch Woody…

September 7th, 2011 at 12:36 AM ^

Wisconsin will eat Oregon State for lunch. Penn State will cover the spread against Alabama, maybe even win. Look for Air Force to keep it tight with TCU.

Toledo might be good, but I'd say Western Michigan is a better team in the MAC. Still, OSU will run over Toledo. Final score through the 3rd quarter: 28 - 14. Through 4th quarter: 42 - 14.

RSTJ

September 7th, 2011 at 9:06 AM ^

You should probably make this a diary. I like UGA to top SC and I can hold out hope that Vandy actually wins. Uconn has a new coach and Todman graduated, so we'll see what happens.  The line has moved a bunch since the open (uconn was favored by five by one book), so the sharps are on vandy a ton.

Indiana Blue

September 7th, 2011 at 9:17 AM ^

is tough to determine.  I guess it is best when a "higher ranked" team loses to a "lower ranked team".  Since the polls normally rank only the Top 25, I am putting this weeks upset as Arizona State (+7.5) over Missouri outright.

The other prediction is that Kelly makes a decision with a bad outcome that costs nd a win over Michigan.  This could be anything from going for it on 4th down to punting instead of a FG attempt or something ... just a hunch that BK isn't that good of a game coach.

Go Blue!

dahblue

September 7th, 2011 at 9:38 AM ^

Florida Atlantic.  MSU is a 32.5 point favorite?  C'mon.  They started the year with a D-II (FCS) team and now are moving onto a newish D-I program.  They couldn't stomp a super shitty team and won't cover the spread against FAU.

jamiemac

September 7th, 2011 at 10:23 AM ^

I think you made a mistake in the O.P.  UCLA neither covered that game, nor was Houston's win an upset as the Cougs were chalk. That read confusing, sorry.

This week?

I love Utah, Michigan and Missouri to at least cover as underdogs and have great chances at winning outright. I will be betting the points with all three this weekend

I also like Oregon State to cover that big number against Wisco. More of a system play. Always take the road underdog if they lost outright as double digit favorites the week before. Hold your nose, take the 3 TDs then come over to our tailgate and watch the game and commiserate how crappy a pick it was with me!!

Maize_in_Spartyland

September 7th, 2011 at 11:15 AM ^

I tend to agree with you on Missouri.  They are a much better team than Vegas is giving them credit for, even if Arizona State is much improved.  My initial thought with the 21.5 points in the Oregon State/Wisconsin game is simply to stay away.  Wisconsin is too much of an unknown right now.  I want to see how they integrate Russell Wilson into their offense.  Their mentality has always been run first, but does that include the QB running, too?

Would you add Duke to your list, also?  Duke was a 12 point favorite losing 23-21 to Richmond.  They are a 21 point dog at home to Stanford this week.

 

jamiemac

September 7th, 2011 at 12:44 PM ^

Oh man, I forgot about the Duke situation. I didnt realize they were that big of favorites vs Richmond, figured that line was smaller and didnt even double check once I saw the final

So, thats crappy Duke and Oregon State against top-10 teams

Man, I dont want to take either......the good news is something I have unofficially tracked over the years is that when one of my systems or trends pops up multiple times in one week, disaster happens. The beauty of gambling systems is they come up a handful times a season, wait for it and pound it.....so, its suspicious when it happens multiple times the same Saturday

I bet Oregon St and Duke go 1-1 this week ATS. Now, I wont feel as bad leaving one of my favorite system plays off the card!!

NCWolverine

September 7th, 2011 at 10:29 AM ^

Utah will be too much for SC (YTSC) to handle, until SC has some offense not consisting of Barkley to Woods.  SC (NTSC) is very talented and all the insiders down here are very excited about the DL.  ECU mitigated the DL to some extent by quick release passes.  SC will learn from game one and beat GA badly.  Boise will lose value in their Week one win.

M-Glow-Blue

September 7th, 2011 at 11:20 PM ^

Dont count out Toledo in Columbus. 3 reasons:

 

1- Ohio state QB situation still in doubt.

2- After an easy opponent in Akron in the first week, Ohio state will be looking past another MAC team for their matchup with Miami Fl in week 3.

3- Toledo coach Tim Beckman is familiar with the Ohio state program and will have his team ready to play.

Maize_in_Spartyland

September 7th, 2011 at 11:30 PM ^

Toledo better have worked on their defense since the New Hampshire game then. Having been at that game, I can tell you that UNH could have scored 14 more, having turned the ball over in Toledo territory a couple times.

Over under on the game was 50, with Toledo an 11 point favorite. Vegas had a 30-20/31-19 game in mind. UNH point total indicates a reasonably expected amount of points given up, but a spectator would realize it could have been much more. With that said, I think Toledo far exceeded offensive expectations, at least in terms of offensive output.

 

Toledo is a 19 point dog, with an over under of 50.5.  Vegas has a 35-15/35-16 game in mind.  Does that seem accurate to you or what would be more accurate prediction?

M-Glow-Blue

September 7th, 2011 at 11:36 PM ^

I think the Vegas prediction is probably as accurate as its going to be.

 

However, I would take Toledo on that spread, I think it ends up being closer than people think.

Ohio State's game against Akron is not a good representation of their team.  Akron could have possibly made the game closer than it was had their offense been able to do anything. I dont see Ohio State being able to stop Toledo's offense every series, and I think Toledo's defense can make a few big plays against the Ohio State offense.

 

In the end I think Ohio State by 10 or less, small chance for Toledo upset