Upset Watch: Bowl Week 3

Only the SEC has yet to have had one team play in a bowl game; they’ll finally have one team play on Friday (Mississippi State). We round in to mid-bowl season form this weekend, with 15 games being played between Friday and Tuesday.

For those of you keeping track, Conference USA teams are 2-0 (Marshall and Southern Miss). Big 12 teams are 1-0 (Missouri). Big Ten teams are 1-0 (Purdue). MAC teams are 2-1 in bowl games (Temple and Ohio University won; Western Michigan lost). Mountain West teams are 2-2 (Wyoming and San Diego State lost; TCU and Boise State won). Sun Belt teams are 1-1 (Louisiana-Lafayette won, Florida International lost). ACC teams are 0-1 (North Carolina). PAC-12 teams are 0-1 (Arizona State). WAC teams are 0-3 (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada).

During the regular season, the Upset Watch reviewed picks from the previous week, noted the bad picks, and pointed out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it was only in Vegas. It also looked at one or two sure-fire favorites (two when Michigan wasn’t playing).

Because this is the bowl season (and our last hurrah for the 2011-2012 regular season), we’ll cover each of the bowl games, splitting them up by week.

As a reminder, I’ll have more picks on Saturday, December 31^st, before noon, covering the games through January 2^nd. The Michigan game will be covered on the January 3^rd posting.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Marshall (7-6) +5.0 Florida International (8-5). Result: Marshall 20 Florida International 10.

Boise State (12-1) -13.5 Arizona State (6-7). Result: Boise State 56 Arizona State 24 [Props to Trebor and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Boise State would cover].

Southern Miss (12-2) -5.5 Nevada (7-6). Result: Southern Miss 24 Nevada 17 [Props to Trebor for correctly predicting Southern Miss would cover].

Missouri (8-5) -3.5 North Carolina (7-6) (@ Shreveport, LA). Result: Missouri 41 North Carolina 24 [Props to Trebor and BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Missouri would cover].

Losses

TCU (11-2) -9.5 Louisiana Tech (8-5) (@ San Diego, CA). Result: TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 24 [Props to BrewCityBlue for correctly predicting Louisiana Tech would cover].

Western Michigan (7-6) +2.5 Purdue (7-6). Result: Purdue 37 Western Michigan 32.

This Week

Only three bowl games that take place between now and Friday will have a top 25 team playing in them. In a traditional PAC-12/Big 12 matchup, the Holiday Bowl will pair California and (#24) Texas (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3) on Wednesday night. On Thursday night, Heisman trophy winner QB Robert Griffin III leads (#12) Baylor against Washington in the Alamo Bowl (9:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3). A late Friday night game will pair Iowa against (#14) Oklahoma in the Insight Bowl (10:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3).

Upset Watch

Louisville (7-5) +3.0 North Carolina State (7-5) (@ Charlotte, NC). The Cardinals are 104^th in total offense (94^th rushing, 79^th passing); North Carolina State is 93^rd (107^th rushing, 52^nd passing). Louisville is 23^rd in total defense (10^th rushing, 61^st passing); the Wolfpack are 39^th (41^st rushing, 55^th passing). Louisville leads the series 3-0, with a 29-10 victory over North Carolina State in 2007, 35-14 in 1994, and 26-2 in 1951. North Carolina State is 13-11-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-0-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Louisville is 7-7-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Louisville Coach Charlie Strong is 14-12 (15-11 ATS, 8-4 ATS underdog); North Carolina State Coach Tom O’Brien is 85-52 (68-53-3 ATS, 30-31-2 ATS favorite) since 2001. North Carolina State is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year (5-6-1 overall ATS); Louisville is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this year (8-4 overall ATS). Louisville’s last bowl game was the 2010 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, a 31-28 win over Southern Miss; North Carolina State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Champs Sports Bowl, a 23-7 win over West Virginia. Take Louisville to cover the points.

Toledo (8-4) -1.0 Air Force (7-5) (@ Washington, DC). The Rockets are 8^th in total offense (14^th rushing, 29^th passing); Air Force is 19^th (2^nd rushing, 113^th passing). Toledo is 76^th in total defense (28^th rushing, 109^th passing); the Falcons are 70^th (113^th rushing, 6^th passing). These teams have never met before. Toledo is 7-4 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Air Force is 10-10-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-2 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Air Force Coach Troy Calhoun is 34-18 (28-20-1 ATS, 10-7-1 ATS underdog); Toledo Coach Matt Campbell is 0-0 (0-0-0 ATS, 0-0-0 ATS favorite). Toledo is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year (7-5 overall ATS); Air Force is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Toledo’s last bowl game was the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl, a 34-32 loss to Florida International; Air Force’s last bowl game was the 2010 Independence Bowl, a 14-7 win over Georgia Tech. Take Toledo to cover the points.

Texas (7-5) -3.0 California (7-5) (@ San Diego, CA). The Golden Bears are 37^th in total offense (48^th rushing, 38^th passing); Texas is 45^th (19^th rushing, 85^th passing). California is 26^th in total defense (37^th rushing, 43^rd passing); the Longhorns are 14^th (11^th rushing, 47^th passing). Texas leads the series 5-0, with a 56-15 victory over California in 1970, 17-0 in 1969, 28-3 in 1961, and 33-0 in 1959. Texas is 25-22-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). California is 10-9-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 0-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). California Coach Jeff Tedford is 79-47 (64-58-1 ATS, 16-16-1 ATS underdog); Texas Coach Mack Brown is 113-28 (70-67-3 ATS, 55-48-2 ATS favorite) since 2001. Texas is 5-3 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); California is 2-2 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Texas’s last bowl game was the 2009 BCS National Championship, a 37-21 loss to Alabama; California’s last bowl game was the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl, a 37-27 win over Utah. Take Texas to cover the points.

Florida State (8-4) -2.5 Notre Dame (8-4) (@ Orlando, FL). The Seminoles are 73^rd in total offense (99^th rushing, 34^th passing); Notre Dame is 33^rd (51^st rushing, 33^rd passing). Florida State is 6^th in total defense (2^nd rushing, 18^th passing); the Irish are 34^th (58^th rushing, 34^th passing). Florida State leads the series 4-2, with a 37-0 victory over Notre Dame in 2003, 31-26 in 1996 (Orange Bowl), 23-16 in 1994, and 19-13 in 1981; Notre Dame defeated Florida State 34-24 in 2002 and 31-24 in 1993. Florida State is 23-14-2 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 5-0 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Notre Dame is 12-11-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 2-2 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Notre Dame Coach Brian Kelly is 71-32 (52-41-4 ATS, 20-9-2 ATS underdog); Florida State Coach Jimbo Fisher is 18-8 (14-12 ATS, 12-8 ATS favorite). Florida State is 6-4 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Notre Dame is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Florida State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl, a 26-17 win over South Carolina; Notre Dame’s last bowl game was the 2010 Sun Bowl, a 33-17 win over Miami (FL). Take Florida State to cover the points.

Baylor (9-3) -9.0 Washington (7-5) (@ San Antonio, TX). The Huskies are 57^th in total offense (67^th rushing, 51^st passing); Baylor is 2^nd (18^th rushing, 5^th passing). Washington is 94^th in total defense (54^th rushing, 116^th passing); the Bears are 114^th (102^nd rushing, 112^th passing). Baylor leads the series 3-1, with a 17-14 victory over Washington in 1965, 13-7 in 1955, and 34-7 in 1954; Washington defeated Baylor 35-14 in 1964. Baylor is 8-9 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 2-3 ATS in last 5; 1-2 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Washington is 15-14-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Washington Coach Steve Sarkisian is 19-18 (20-17-0 ATS, 11-12-0 ATS underdog); Baylor Coach Art Briles is 58-53 (54-52-1 ATS, 30-20-1 ATS favorite). Baylor is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Washington is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Baylor’s last bowl game was the 2010 Texas Bowl, a 38-14 win over Illinois; Washington’s last bowl game was the 2010 Holiday Bowl, a 19-7 win over Nebraska. Take Baylor to cover the points.

Brigham Young (9-3) -1.0 Tulsa (8-4) (@ Dallas, TX). The Cougars are 41^st in total offense (52^nd rushing, 46^th passing); Tulsa is 24^th (25^th rushing, 41^st passing). BYU is 17^th in total defense (21^st rushing, 29^th passing); the Golden Hurricane are 90^th (38^th rushing, 118^th passing). Brigham Young leads the series 6-1, with a 49-24 victory over Tulsa in 2006, 49-39 in 1997, 55-30 in 1996, 45-35 in 1995, 38-15 in 1984, and 25-7 in 1971. Tulsa defeated Brigham Young 55-47 in 2007. Brigham Young is 11-17-1 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 3-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Tulsa is 8-9 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 5-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS underdog in last 5). Brigham Young Coach Bronco Mendenhall is 65-24 (48-37-1 ATS, 33-26-0 ATS favorite); Tulsa Coach Bill Blankenship is 8-4 (7-5 ATS, 2-3 ATS underdog). Brigham Young is 5-4 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Tulsa is 2-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Tulsa’s last bowl game was the 2010 Hawai’i Bowl, a 62-35 victory over Hawai’i; Brigham Young’s last bowl game was the 2010 New Mexico Bowl, a 52-24 win over UTEP. Take Brigham Young to cover the points.

Iowa State (6-6) +2.5 Rutgers (8-4) (@ Bronx, NY). The Scarlet Knights are 100^th in total offense (115^th rushing, 46^th passing); Iowa State is 55^th (35^th rushing, 75^th passing). Rutgers is 13^th in total defense (57^th rushing, 10^th passing); the Cyclones are 99^th (100^th rushing, 72^nd passing). These teams have never met. Rutgers is 4-2 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-0-1 ATS in last 5; 3-0-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Iowa State is 3-7 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS in last 5; 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Iowa State Coach Paul Rhodes is 18-19 (20-16 ATS, 13-10-0 ATS underdog); Rutgers Coach Greg Schiano is 67-67 (68-57-1 ATS, 23-26 ATS favorite). Rutgers is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this year (8-4 overall ATS); Iowa State is 7-3 ATS as an underdog this year (7-5 overall ATS). Rutgers’s last bowl game was the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl, a 45-24 win over UCF; Iowa State’s last bowl game was the 2009 Insight Bowl, a 14-13 win over Minnesota. Take Iowa State to cover the points.

Mississippi State (6-6) -6.5 Wake Forest (6-6) (@ Nashville, TN). The Bulldogs are 87^th in total offense (45^th rushing, 92^nd passing); Wake Forest is 76^th (96^th rushing, 36^th passing). Mississippi State is 43^rd in total defense (65^th rushing, 23^rd passing); the Demon Deacons are 75^th (70^th rushing, 71^st passing). These teams have never met. Mississippi State is 8-6 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-0 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Wake Forest is 6-3 all time in bowl games (4-1 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 2-1 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Wake Forest Coach Jim Grobe is 68-66 (63-63-4 ATS, 39-26-3 ATS underdog); Mississippi State Coach Dan Mullen is 20-17 (19-17 ATS, 10-6 ATS favorite). Mississippi State is 4-3 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Wake Forest is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog this year (7-4-1 overall ATS). Mississippi State’s last bowl game was the 2010 Gator Bowl, a 52-14 win over Michigan; Wake Forest’s last bowl game was the 2008 EagleBank Bowl, a 29-19 win over Navy. Take Mississippi State to cover the points.

Iowa (7-5) +16.0 Oklahoma (9-3) (@ Tempe, AZ). The Hawkeyes are 70^th in total offense (77^th rushing, 56^th passing); Oklahoma is 4^th (49^th rushing, 4^th passing). Iowa is 68^th in total defense (64^th rushing, 66^th passing); the Sooners are 62^nd (49^th rushing, 83^rd passing). Oklahoma leads the series 1-0, with a 21-6 victory over Iowa in 1979. Oklahoma is 26-17-1 all time in bowl games (2-3 SU in last 5; 1-4 ATS in last 5; 1-1 ATS as a favorite in last 5). Iowa is 14-10-1 all time in bowl games (3-2 SU in last 5; 4-1 ATS in last 5; 1-3 ATS as an underdog in last 5). Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz is 92-46 (75-56-3 ATS, 22-16-3 ATS underdog) since 2001; Oklahoma Coach Bob Stoops is 118-29 (74-67-4 ATS, 55-50-3 ATS favorite) since 2001. Oklahoma is 6-5 ATS as a favorite this year (6-6 overall ATS); Iowa is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year (5-7 overall ATS). Oklahoma’s last bowl game was the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, a 48-20 win over Connecticut; Iowa’s last bowl game was the 2010 Insight Bowl, a 27-24 win over Missouri. Take Iowa to cover the points.

Who ya got?