Updated Realistic Projected Recruiting Board V2.0

Submitted by alum96 on

 

 

EDITS

  • changed OL Nolan Ulizio to commit
  • added DE Daishon Neal, Nebraska as target
  • removed WR Austin Aaron who is staying at Cal
  • removed CB Will Lockett who will stay with UCLA
  • One more open spot due to Justice Hayes not returning as a 5th year senior
  • removed FB Reagan Williams who will stay with Stanford
  • removed DE Daishon Neal who will stay with Nebraska
  • added RB/CB Titus Booker, Wisconsin as target
  • added WR Van Jefferson, Ole Miss as target
  • added WR Deontay Burnett, WSU as target
  • removed RB/CB Titus Booker
  • One more open spot due to Russ Bellomy not returning as a 5th year senior
  • One more open spot due to Keith Heitzman not returning as a 5th year senior
  • removed DE Jake PIckard, commited to Syracuse
  • removed TE Matt Snyder who will stay with Nebraska

With 10 or so days to go I will just do a running update to keep this stuff on page 1 of the diary, and with new updates as needed.  Here is V1.0.

Aside from the 2 3commits the # of open spots is in question; with scholarships assumed to be offered to both Glasgows and Kerridge there would only be 6 open spots left.  (EDIT 1 extra spot with Justice leaving) (EDIT another open spot with Bellomy) (EDIT another open spot with Heitzman) Howeva.... if there is some attrition that has happened but not yet announced there may be more. (EDIT Well that is the attrition we were looking for)  Also we don't know Harbaugh's stance on grayshirts. And we *do* seem to be recruiting as if we have more than 4 spots - but maybe that's just Harbaugh covering all bases.  So instead of 6-8 7-8 8-9 9 spots I am going to go 6-9 7-9 8-9 9 on our commit board.  9 new commits (inclusive of the 2 Saturday) would give us 15 in the class. 

Updated board:

My pulled out of rear end class then falls like this

  1. TE Chris Clark OR non Clark TE (Matt Snyder?)
  2. RB Mike Weber OR RB/ATH John Kelly Jake Pickard DE - he is suddenly getting crystal balled to Syracuse since the 2 UM transfers announced on Friday
  3. CB Damon Arnette
  4. (Committed) OL Nolan Ulizio
  5. (Committed) DE/OLB hybrid Reuben Jones
  6. (Committed) QB Zach Gentry
  7.  A second CB - too foggy to tell but not likely Marshall; Lockett/Adams/Bush most likely
  8.  FB Reagan Williams IDK at this point - WR Van Jefferson?
  9.  RB Mike Weber/ATH John Kelly  - edit: Zach Gentry (?) TE/DE Ty Wheatley Jr?  LB Roquan Smith?

 

Significant changes

  • 2 commits - QB Gentry and DE Jones
  • Jake Pickard is being recruited as a DE not a TE which makes him a much more serious candidate.  He also has had UM as his dream school.  If anyone else commits this weekend he sounds like the one.
  • RB/DB John Kelly committed to TN and it sounds like UM does not have much chance although Harbaugh supposedly will keep recruiting til NSD
  • I've soured on RB Mike Weber flip due to him "most likely" not coming to visit and him attenting OSU's NC celebration.  Now he is a local guy so he need not visit to commit but tea leaves seem to working against UM.
  • (EDIT - Committed) I thought OL Ulizio was a no brainer if we offered but apparently his dad works in Pittsburgh and he has a bevy of former teammates who go to Kentucky.  So not a slam dunk.
  • (EDIT - Staying with Stanford) I thought the same for FB Reagan Williams but again he sounded as if Michigan is more of an exploratory visit at this point.  Of course the Harbaugh charm can change that.  Still projecting him.
  • We have a new CB Markel Bush who is not rated or offered anywhere, but UM seems interested in.
  • (EDIT - Sticking with UCLA) CB Will Lockett sounds open to flipping and he is not going to wait until NSD to decide between UM and UCLA.  So we should know his decision early this week I imagine.
  • Jay Harbaugh and Drevno visited TE/DE Wheatley so maybe they are viewing him as a TE even at 260 lbs?  The recruitment of Pickard/Jones as DEs would seem to support that.  Wheatley continues to have a mean poker face.
  • The recruitment of CB Chris Williamson seems to be blowing up with a lot of southern schools involved; he will be a very tough pull now.
  • In house visit with CB Iman Marshall Monday; still considered a massive USC lean but UM has done all it can do - Iman's dad seems to be very important to "flip".
  • LB Roquan Smith has a final 3 of that includes UM.  Cross fingers he leaves GA.

 

Just for kicks section - a 13 man class with Clark, Arnette, Williams, Lockett, Pickard added to our current 8 would vault the class from current #72 to #34ish via 247.

 

Untitled

(h/t LongLiveBo)

Position by position

OFFENSE

TE

  • Chris Clark - target #1.  NSD decision between UCLA and UM.  Gut feel says UM despite recent comments about neck and neck with UCLA.  UM offense focuses on TE, UCLA does not.  UM coaches have developed NFL TEs.  Heart was once with UM.
  • (sorta) Ty Wheatley - seems to project more to DE but some feel at 260 lbs he can still be a TE as he grows in the coming years.  Durkin and Jay Harbaugh visited so maybe UM views as a very large TE down the road.

Projecting - Chris Clark

 

FB

  •  

Projecting - Reagan Williams.  Harbaugh magic works this weekend.

 

RB

  • Mike Weber - former UM commit who could see the competition crowding at OSU.  Yes UM will probably get a good back in 2016 as well to provide competition but the entire roster not named Ty Isaac clears out at RB post 2016.  Clearer path to playing time here, close to home, etc.T

Projecting - Looks like tea leaves read none; maybe an unknown emerges next week at the last minute.

 

QB

  • McClane Carter - wasn't much interest in Carter nationally until Jim sniffed around which brought along some other interests.  Not sure if this is a scholarship type of guy or someone who you bring in for a year with a chance to earn a scholarship when more open up in year 2.

Projecting - We are done here.

 

WR

  • Ryan Davis - super fun HS QB who might not have top flight speed but ridiculous change of direction and vision.  Will know better in the coming days if there is anything real here.  Would love this guy for punt returns and as a slot WR.
  • Van Jefferson - Detroit native who recently left the state and is a recent Ole Miss commit; will take an official this weekend.
  • Deontany Burnett - Washingon State commit from CA who will take an official this weekend.

Projecting - none.

 

OL

  • (EDIT) COMMIT Nolan Ulizio - lightly ranked OL out of OH, committed to UConn getting some love from Michigan, Kentucky.   On paper seems like a no brainer to UM.  But if higher rated prospects at other positions are in play he might be told there is no room in the closing days of the signing period.  If this class was 16+ spots he'd probably be a close to sure yes.

Projecting - maybe Ulizio - some of this is due to openings and he has reasons to choose Pitt or UK. 

 

DEFENSE

DB

  • Damon Arnette - SC commit getting the most attention of a host of CB prospects.  Was in town this past weekend and was visited by Harbaugh, Durkin, and Mattison at home Wednesday.  His HS is a NFL factory so is a key bridge to get into that school.
  • Chris Williamson - late riser on recruiting boards out of GA getting interest from UF, UM, NC, Cal and GA.  Was at NC last weekend, will be at UM this weekend, then UF the following weekend.
  • Jarius Adams - Rutgers commit
  • Iman Marshall - obviously a crown jewel but some believe to be a silent commit to USC which of course they deny.  Dad did not join him on trip.  Sounds like UM did a great job hosting but most likely too little too late and a 2nd/3rd place finish for his services.
  • Markel Bush  - little is known of this mystery candidate

Projecting - serious chance for 2 CBs even if we only have 6 slots.  Guessing Arnette is 1. Hopefully Williamson is impressed this weekend but still has a visit to UF next weekend.  Most likely the 2nd spot is Lockett/Adams/Bush.

 

DE

  • Jalen Bates - ASU commit but not much noise here after some initial excitement. No crystal ballz to UM.
  • KLS - sort of been a tease from afar thru the Hoke era, but a UCLA commit and it seems solid.
  • Ty Wheatley (more likely here than TE) - dude could play a great game of poker.

Projecting - Jake Pickard.  EDIT - Since the 2 UM transfers Pickard crystal balls have moved heavily to Syracuse  EDIT - Commited to Syracuse.

 

LB

  • Roquan Smith - highly ranked GA LB is a major target for UM, who has a chance due to Durkin.  Most still think he is headed to GA but this past weekend seemd to do UM a lot of good.  The longer his recruiting process goes the better for UM's chances.

Projecting - none. 

 

OFF THE BOARD / UNLIKELY

  • John Kelly (also a potential DB) - Harbaugh is saying very nice things about him and crystall ballz trending our way but UM was late to this game.  MSU and TN seem to be the major competition.  Just committed to TN, UM will continue to pursue to NSD.
  • (EDIT) Austin Aaron - Cal commit, some noise early in Harbaugh chase with him ; not hearing much lately. STAYING AT CAL.
  • (EDIT) Will Lockett - UCLA commit who will be in town this weekend. STAYING AT UCLA.
  • (EDIT) Reagan Williams - Stanford commit visiting this weekend.  With Kerridge and Houma both graduating post 2015 and Shallman the only type on roster to fill this roll this position is a need.  Looks like he will be visiting for 3 days so serious interest.  Can play close to home as he is from Ohio.  50/50 chance perhaps.  STAYING AT STANFORD.
  • (EDIT) Daishon Neal - NEB commit who dropped Oklahoma and Oregon this weekend; Mattison to visit on Monday.  STAYING AT NEBRASKA.
  • (EDIT) Titus Booker - Wisconsin CB commit seems to be recruited by Michigan as a RB, Lorenz says will be on campus this weekend.  STAYING AT WISCONSIN.
  • (EDIT) Jake Pickard - current WIS commit who seems to have UM as his dream school, in town this weekend - seems to be on commit watch.  COMMITTED TO SYRACUSE.
  • (EDIT) Matt Snyder - current NEB commit set to visit this weekend.  Followed Riley from Oregon State to Nebraska. STAYING AT NEBRASKA.
  • Marcus Lewis CB - this seemed like a sure commit post summer BBQ.  But his final 3 is Kentucky, Miami (YTM), and WSU (?!).
  • Nate Dalton CB - visited in home and at school by Harbaugh Tuesday but more interested in Liberty.  Or Bret B at Arkansas.
  • Arrington Farrar S - a Stanford decommit who sounded like a natural fit but the last 5 crystal ballz have him headed to ND.
  • Drew Lock QB -  Missouri commit looks like a no.
  • Joe Burrow QB - OSU commit apparently told Jim no.
  • Cordell Broadus WR - his dad wants him to go to USC, and other than some nice words before Harbaugh was hired about Harbaugh there doesn't seem to be much connection there.
  • Auden Tate WR - committed to FSU last summer, not much smoke anymore. [edit:  Harbaugh apparently visited 1/22]
  • David Moorman OL - exiled WIS commit seems to want to hear from UM; not sure if there is any smoke there.
  • [edit][edit again] Joshua McMillon - Alabama commit out of TN who was once sort of high on Michigan during the Hoke period is set to visit.  He cancelled his visit.

 

Comments

m83econ

January 25th, 2015 at 8:26 AM ^

Becoming more realistic by the day and not in a great way. Evidence is saying the remaining spots will tend to be more 3/4 star than 4/5. I guess this is better than 2/3 star.

drtpushr

January 25th, 2015 at 9:01 AM ^

Realistic for sure. JH and company can only do so much in such a short time. Lets get the best we can this class and create the relationships with 4/5 stars for next class. It would still be great to see a few of those this year though. Still gotta dream.

team126

January 25th, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^

Give them coaching and training and time to mature. Wiscy has been doing fine.

One thought I have wrt Hoke is that he played too many freshmen.

Hope JH is here for the long haul and no freshman to start except may be skill positions (RB, WR)

alum96

January 25th, 2015 at 9:09 AM ^

Looking at these 8 players the only guy I see starting is the kicker Andrew David.

So we're at a good spot in that regard.  The only guys who on paper I see not RSing would be potentially Cole (longshot to not RS) and Chris Clark if my class projection works out. 

Gentry is a bit of a project who is coming from poor levels of competition with no spring practice behind him so will be behind Malzone in year 1.  And even Malzone I don't forsee playing as most QBs across the country having success are RS FR, not true FR. 

Aside from that maybe a guy like Kinnel is involved but again we have 4 safeties - and now 5 if Peppers is moving there so no need to burn a RS for him.  And even with Cole as a WR we have Ways and Drake Harris ahead of him in theory as RS FR, and Canteen who barely played last year so it's pretty crowded.

The guys who could rip off a RS are potentially any 2015 corners.  If Peppers is a S and you play nickel you have Stribling, Lewis, Countess, Brandon Watson, Reon Dawson, Terry Richardson as CB candidates - the latter 2 are buried on depth chart.  If Clark moves from S to CB like some speculate that would be another. 

But I think CB is the one spot a 2015 field player could immediately find himself on the 2 deep.  We do have 4 scholarship DEs so if any gets hurt you may have a 2015 DE play too in the 2 deep.

EGD

January 25th, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^

I think the early enrollment gives Cole a good chance to play in 2015. With Funchess gone, M will really need a playmaker at WR and the two most likely candidates seem to be Cole or Drake Harris. If Cole was enrolling in the fall, I would not expect him to play at all because Saginaw Heritage is not the kind of high school that's going to produce a plug & play freshman. But with a full spring practice and off-season conditioning program, Cole will have a great shot.

getsome

January 25th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^

versatility is a great thing.  even if they currently view him at DE they could still shift him elsewhere down the road.  

harbaugh has shown hes very adept at plugging football players into his system and getting results regardless of position as 18 yr old frosh.  stanford played guys both ways.  sherman moved from WR to CB.  they flipped RB to LB, DE to FB, OL to DL, etc and those guys produced on the field.  

i think its great harbaugh will recruit TE / DE hybrid type players as well as DB / WR athletes and then see where they fit best after some development and coaching.  roster flexiblity is huge.  im all for versatile athletes, sign them up if theyre good enough and then sort em out.  he already told cole hes not penciled in at any 1 spot, he could play WR or DB.  

the dude knows what hes doing and its refreshing

west2

January 25th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^

class in 2011 featured 20 player after being hired January 11th. It was ranked 26th in the nation by Rivals.  There were 6 four stars, 13 three stars, and a 2 star kicker.  Harbaugh's 2015 class looks very comparable at 34th nationally with 15 players barring a surprise wild card addition such as Marshall, Wheatley or Smith.  The addition of any of those players would be an uptick from Hokes first year effort.  Hokes other classes per Rivals: 2012-25 recruits #7 nationally 2-5 stars 10-4 stars; 2013-27 recruits #5 nationally 1-5 star 16-4 stars.  As we know Hokes one area where he excelled was recruiting and if Harbaugh upgrades from Hokes performance, well let's just say, so far so good!  

CaliforniaNobody

January 25th, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^

Lol @ probably losing a 2* OL to one of three bad football programs
He has other reasons but I have to think if I was a 2*, even if I wasn't a UM superfan, I'd take that scholly and not look back




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

alum96

January 25th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^

Those are comments from the the on the ground Scout guy in OH to Sam Webb so just repeating it.  In version 1.0 I had him coming here as a "no brainer" but have to adjust to information that comes in..  Not everyone has the same reasons to commit to a school but in this case it is moot as he just commited.

LSA Superstar

January 25th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^

I don't think we should write off Mike Weber yet.  I acknowledge that the "smoke" hasn't been good but a lot of "deep web" guys think that he's a silent commit.  With a gap that big I think we should just wait and see.

LSA Superstar

January 25th, 2015 at 4:11 PM ^

I agree - elaboration would be beneficial.  But here's all anyone knows:

1.) Sam Webb and several other recruiting "insiders" have repeatedly and recently said that they would expect that Mike Weber will take another visit to Michigan before signing day.  They've also said that he wouldn't have committed to OSU had he known Harbaugh was the coach, but after Hoke was fired he didn't feel he could jeopardize his future by failing to reserve his spot.

2.) On Friday morning, a Detroit News article comes out where Mike Weber says that he won't be taking an official visit to Michigan before signing day in all likelihood.  The Board melts down.

3.) AFTER that article was published, Sam Webb made two important and unequivocal comments in his recruiting roundup section.  First, he stated that the key words in the Detroit News article were that Weber PROBABLY would not take an OFFICIAL visit.  Second, in responding to a question asking him to predict a surprise commit for the class, guessed Gentry and then followed up by saying that he wouldn't put Weber in that spot because if Weber committed it wouldn't be a surprise.

Again, all I'm saying is that important dudes think we're in this.  I fully agree that the information available to the public suggests we're totally out.  But I get the impression that Webb is pretty sure he knows something we don't.  And considering that Webb and Wheatley are bros, I think we should probably take his comments into consideration.

CoachBP6

January 26th, 2015 at 5:24 AM ^

I know it might be a long shot, but I really want iman Marshall. I believe his interest is sincere, but will still pick USC.

fukkyt

January 26th, 2015 at 9:05 AM ^

Is there any NCAA rule that prevents him from doing that?  UM will just pay his father USD 300,000 more in his contract! Wouldnt that be the smart thing to do?

BlueCube

January 29th, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^

Major swing on crystal ball predictions to Michigan. Interesting thing is it's not people who cover Michigan but outsiders who are picking him to Michigan. This includes Shannon Terry who is CEO of 247 sports.

Ecky Pting

January 30th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^

Here's a 15-player scenario with a total score of 220.34 as projected by 247Sports (uncommitted in bold). This lineup is currently good enough for a top 20 placement (#20 precisely) on 247.  What's nifty here is that M flips Weber from tOSU, and in doing so passes Sparty (@ #25) in the rankings!

  1. Brian Cole ATH (6-2/190) 0.9613 (+26.13)
  2. Michael Weber RB (5-9.5/219) 0.9603 (+25.87)
  3. Chris Clark TE (6-6/247) 0.9580 (+25.17)
  4. Van Jefferson WR (6-2/183) 0.9489 (+23.54)
  5. Zach Gentry PRO (6-7/230) 0.9228 (+20.19)
  6. Tyree Kinnel S (6-0/205) 0.9180 (+18.68)
  7. Grant Newsome OT (6-6/290) 0.9074 (+16.61)
  8. Alex Malzone PRO (6-1.5/200) 0.8984 (+14.66)
  9. Tyrone Wheatley Jr. TE (6-6/260) 0.8953 (+13.16)
  10. Titus Booker RB (5-11/172) 0.8587 (+9.63)
  11. Reuben Jones SDE (6-3/223) 0.8540 (+8.31)
  12. Jon Runyan Jr. OT (6-4/276) 0.8403 (+6.65)
  13. Jake Pickard WDE (6-6/231) 0.8352 (+5.56)
  14. Nolan Ulizio OT (6-6/280) 0.7985 (+3.47)
  15. Andrew David K (5-9/165) 0.7907 (+2.71)

alum96

January 30th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^

Yes it is a fun tool but keep in mind undeclared players will go to other teams too and push up their rankings.

And that list wouldnt work for UM since it doesnt have any DBs - we need 2 more IMO.  And we are recruiting as if we want 2 more.

Booker has since cancelled his visit and Pickard seems to be trending to Syracuse all the sudden which probably means good things for Wheatley.  Then you need 2 pick 2 CBs to replace those 2 -maybe Adams and Arnette.  Marshall and Williamson would be a dream package but the two A's are probably more likely although we are in a battle with Urban for Arnette.