national champs baby
Turnovers Updated thru WMU - Revised
Revision: I WILL be including the WMU TO stats in all future posts. I realized that excluding a single game will significantly distort all the data. So, my data will reflect U-M with +3 TOM better than the NCAA data. I am right -- they are wrong!
We Don't Exist!:
This will be an abbreviated post since all the stats from the WMU game are not included in the NCAA data. I don't feel like fighting this battle for the entire year or trying to adjust data by some factor every week. All data will be the official NCAA statistics from the NCAA site. Thus, unless the NCAA includes the WMU statistics (which is doubtful), this is the one and only time the data will be included.
Early Season Statistics: In 2009 & 2010 M had a positive TOM thru the first 6 games. At the end of the season? 2009 TOM was MINUS 12. 2010 TOM was MINUS 10. It is unlikely we will know a lot about this team until at least the seventh game at MSU.
Synopsis for Turnovers: The game ended with a TOM of +3. However, the first 2 TOs were very unusual because they both resulted in defensive touchdowns. Arguably, this was a point swing of at least 14 points and as many as 25 points.
With the average TO being "worth" approximately 5 points, a simplistic analysis would conclude TOs were not a major factor in determining the winning team. Nothing could be further from the truth. Without the TOs, I am convinced M would have lost this game.