Turnover Analysis Updated Thru EMU

Submitted by Enjoy Life on

Synopsis for Turnovers: For the third week in a row, M had a positive turnover margin. The game had a total of 3 turnovers. Michigan lost 1 but gained 2 from EMU, leaving M with a TOM of +1 for the game and +6 for the year.

Interestingly, all the TOs occurred within the first 17 minutes of the game.

For the first time in 3 games, turnovers did not impact which team won the game.

M EMU
Actual Score 31 3
Adjust for TOs -3.4 0.0
Score Without TOs 27.6 3

(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)

National Rankings: Remember the table below includes the WMU game and will NOT be the same as the (incorrect) NCAA Rankings. DRob continued his TO problems with an interception and a fumble (the fumble was recovered by M). Interceptions are ranked #94 Nationally a slight improvement over the #100 ranking last week. Overall, M remains at Numero Uno in turnover margin (for the second week in a row).

  TO Lost TO Gained
FMB FL Int Tot FMB FR Int Tot TOM
Total 3 0 4 4 8 6 4 10 6
M Natl Rank N/A 1 94 44 N/A 3 18 5 1

The Gory Details

Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the yard line that the offense is at (which seems fairly obvious in retrospect). Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained.

Here are the details for the EMU game.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Qtr Time Down LOS TO Lost By EP Lost TO Gain By Spot EP Gain EP Gain W/O TO Net EP Gain Total EP Diff
1 12:42 1-10 M49 EMU 3.6 M M35 2.0 1.0 1.0 4.6
1 9:41 4-5 V34 M -3.6 EMU V27 -1.7 -1.8 0.1 -3.5
2 13:11 2-4 M41 EMU 3.2 M M03 0.9 1.8 -0.9 2.3
TOT 3.4

EP Differential: + is M advantage, – is M disadvantage

The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO directly results in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.

Here is a summary chart of Yard Line vs. Expected Points:

Yard Line M 0-5 M10 M20 M30 M40 50 V40 V30 V20 V10 V5 V1
EP 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.3 6.0 6.5

Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).

  TO Lost TO Gained
Player FMB FL INT Player Force Recover INT
Denard 1 4 Herron 1 1
Hopkins 1 0 Kovacs 1 1
Gallon 1 0 RVB 2
Campbell 1
Floyd, JT 1
Robinson, M 1
Robinson, T 1
Gordon 1 1
Black 1    
Total 3 0 4 3 6 4

Comments

trickydick81

September 19th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^

I know it doesn't matter since we recovered but I think Denard was down when he fumbled. Clearly, it is an official fumble, but I wanted to see if others thought the same.

BlueFordSoftTop

September 19th, 2011 at 3:27 PM ^

Fundamental football play means winning the TO exchange battle.  To me, this is the most exciting aspect of our (early) season but for the W's, Dilithium and Gallon.  It suggests that a team has been coached to be mentally aware even though physically tired.  Muscle memory.  It helped win against ND and it may still account for yet another W.  The fact coaching staff brought back certain drills and sleds has me almost in tears I very be so damn happy man.  So happy.

jmblue

September 19th, 2011 at 9:19 PM ^

Denard has a bad habit of almost always keeping the ball in his left hand when he runs, even when he's running to the right.  He's got to learn to switch hands when he runs right.  A lot of his fumbles could be avoided if he had the ball in his outside hand.

TheDirtyD

September 19th, 2011 at 11:00 PM ^

counting the WMU game Michigan is a net +6 or 2.0 a game for turnover ratio. which would make them 5th overall in the country and SDSU is at a 2.5 a game... dont like that.

blueneverquits

September 20th, 2011 at 12:42 PM ^

Turnovers and turnover margin was a HUGE problem the last few years.  I don't think you can understate it.  In addition to opponent's making plays, we often just gave them the ball like ND did for us this year.  Plus our defense wasn't creating turnovers.  This year they are.  Against EMU, for example, the forced fumble and the INT were great plays by our defense.  Hopefully this continues well into Big 10 season.

M-Glow-Blue

September 20th, 2011 at 9:26 PM ^

I agree it has been a huge problem the past few years.

 

Another point on turnovers from the past few years is that two turnovers this year have led directly to points (Fumbled recovered for TD, INT for TD in the Western game). Although both occured in the same game, the fact that the defense was scoring points is a huge bonus. Those two defensive TD's in one game were enough equal half as many defensive TD's as the defense had over the past 3 years. Look for this trend to continue as this defense seems able to force turnovers more often now.

Enjoy Life

September 20th, 2011 at 2:02 PM ^

Last year M after 3 games:

M had lost 2 TO (1 interception and 1 fumble)

M had gained 6 TOs (4 interceptions and 2 fumbles)

Net TOM was +4

Interestingly, we were +3 in TOM against ND last year.

M had a + turnorver margin for the first 2 games of 2010. For the remainer of the season, 6  games with a -0- turnover margin, and 4 games with negative TOM (MSU, Iowa, Illini, osu), and ended the year with a TOM of -9.

Good news, we have had 3 straight games with a + TOM this year. I am still nervous (the last 3 years have messed with my confidence).