Turnover Analysis Updated Thru EMU
Synopsis for Turnovers: For the third week in a row, M had a positive turnover margin. The game had a total of 3 turnovers. Michigan lost 1 but gained 2 from EMU, leaving M with a TOM of +1 for the game and +6 for the year.
Interestingly, all the TOs occurred within the first 17 minutes of the game.
For the first time in 3 games, turnovers did not impact which team won the game.
M | EMU | |
Actual Score | 31 | 3 |
Adjust for TOs | -3.4 | 0.0 |
Score Without TOs | 27.6 | 3 |
(See the Section on Gory Details below for how the adjustment for Expected Points (EP) is calculated.)
National Rankings: Remember the table below includes the WMU game and will NOT be the same as the (incorrect) NCAA Rankings. DRob continued his TO problems with an interception and a fumble (the fumble was recovered by M). Interceptions are ranked #94 Nationally a slight improvement over the #100 ranking last week. Overall, M remains at Numero Uno in turnover margin (for the second week in a row).
TO Lost | TO Gained |
FMB | FL | Int | Tot | FMB | FR | Int | Tot | TOM | |
Total | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
M Natl Rank | N/A | 1 | 94 | 44 | N/A | 3 | 18 | 5 | 1 |
The Gory Details
Expected Point (EP) Analysis: Basically, the probability of scoring depends on the yard line that the offense is at (which seems fairly obvious in retrospect). Therefore, the impact of a TO also depends on the yard line where the TO is lost and the yard line where the TO is gained.
Here are the details for the EMU game.
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
Qtr | Time | Down | LOS | TO Lost By | EP Lost | TO Gain By | Spot | EP Gain | EP Gain W/O TO | Net EP Gain | Total EP Diff |
1 | 12:42 | 1-10 | M49 | EMU | 3.6 | M | M35 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
1 | 9:41 | 4-5 | V34 | M | -3.6 | EMU | V27 | -1.7 | -1.8 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
2 | 13:11 | 2-4 | M41 | EMU | 3.2 | M | M03 | 0.9 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 2.3 |
TOT | 3.4 |
EP Differential: + is M advantage, – is M disadvantage
The analysis is a bit tricky because: (A) the TO directly results in lost EP for the offense but (B) only modifies the EP for the team gaining the TO because the team gaining the TO would have gotten another possession even without the TO (due to a punt, KO after a TD, KO after a field goal, etc.). The Net EP Gain must take into account the potential EP gain without the TO. The EP gain without the turnover is based on where the field position would have been for the next possession if the TO had not occurred.
Here is a summary chart of Yard Line vs. Expected Points:
Yard Line | M 0-5 | M10 | M20 | M30 | M40 | 50 | V40 | V30 | V20 | V10 | V5 | V1 |
EP | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.5 |
Details for Turnovers: Here is overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game).
TO Lost | TO Gained |
Player | FMB | FL | INT | Player | Force | Recover | INT |
Denard | 1 | 4 | Herron | 1 | 1 | ||
Hopkins | 1 | 0 | Kovacs | 1 | 1 | ||
Gallon | 1 | 0 | RVB | 2 | |||
Campbell | 1 | ||||||
Floyd, JT | 1 | ||||||
Robinson, M | 1 | ||||||
Robinson, T | 1 | ||||||
Gordon | 1 | 1 | |||||
Black | 1 | ||||||
Total | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
September 19th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^
I know it doesn't matter since we recovered but I think Denard was down when he fumbled. Clearly, it is an official fumble, but I wanted to see if others thought the same.
September 19th, 2011 at 3:02 PM ^
I had the same thought watching the game. Looked like the ground caused the fumble.
September 20th, 2011 at 4:49 AM ^
Clearly, it is an official fumble, but I wanted to see if others thought the same. Buy Barcelona Shirts.
September 19th, 2011 at 3:27 PM ^
Fundamental football play means winning the TO exchange battle. To me, this is the most exciting aspect of our (early) season but for the W's, Dilithium and Gallon. It suggests that a team has been coached to be mentally aware even though physically tired. Muscle memory. It helped win against ND and it may still account for yet another W. The fact coaching staff brought back certain drills and sleds has me almost in tears I very be so damn happy man. So happy.
September 19th, 2011 at 3:55 PM ^
despite what BTN tells you. I posted videos on the Board of UM practicing on the sleds last year.
This has been a test of the Emergency Meme Killing Broadcast System.
September 19th, 2011 at 4:17 PM ^
In any event, the sleds were owned by the women's rugby team at the time. Both women savaged them from what I hear. And I helped kill the Dominoe's Noid, so in comparison a meme should be rather easy. I believe it's stone cold now. Thanks.
September 19th, 2011 at 9:19 PM ^
Denard has a bad habit of almost always keeping the ball in his left hand when he runs, even when he's running to the right. He's got to learn to switch hands when he runs right. A lot of his fumbles could be avoided if he had the ball in his outside hand.
September 19th, 2011 at 11:00 PM ^
counting the WMU game Michigan is a net +6 or 2.0 a game for turnover ratio. which would make them 5th overall in the country and SDSU is at a 2.5 a game... dont like that.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:08 AM ^
Litmus test game. Three things I will be looking out for: Run game formations and carries per player; DL pressure, and turnover margin. It should be an interesting data point.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:42 PM ^
Turnovers and turnover margin was a HUGE problem the last few years. I don't think you can understate it. In addition to opponent's making plays, we often just gave them the ball like ND did for us this year. Plus our defense wasn't creating turnovers. This year they are. Against EMU, for example, the forced fumble and the INT were great plays by our defense. Hopefully this continues well into Big 10 season.
September 20th, 2011 at 9:26 PM ^
I agree it has been a huge problem the past few years.
Another point on turnovers from the past few years is that two turnovers this year have led directly to points (Fumbled recovered for TD, INT for TD in the Western game). Although both occured in the same game, the fact that the defense was scoring points is a huge bonus. Those two defensive TD's in one game were enough equal half as many defensive TD's as the defense had over the past 3 years. Look for this trend to continue as this defense seems able to force turnovers more often now.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:02 PM ^
Last year M after 3 games:
M had lost 2 TO (1 interception and 1 fumble)
M had gained 6 TOs (4 interceptions and 2 fumbles)
Net TOM was +4
Interestingly, we were +3 in TOM against ND last year.
M had a + turnorver margin for the first 2 games of 2010. For the remainer of the season, 6 games with a -0- turnover margin, and 4 games with negative TOM (MSU, Iowa, Illini, osu), and ended the year with a TOM of -9.
Good news, we have had 3 straight games with a + TOM this year. I am still nervous (the last 3 years have messed with my confidence).
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