I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
- Denard?!? Why? It was "Tate Time"! Why wasn't Tate in the game during Tate Time? Because he was playing like crap on the previous drives he had. Because RR is looking at the longview and has to teach his Freshman QB's to do it the right way. Because he threw an interception in OT last week. Who's to say he wouldn't have done exactly the same thing Denard did? If Tate had been in and thrown a game killing INT two weeks in a row, the same people on here screaming for tate now would have been screaming for denard. Also Denard had just led a successful TD drive under pressure. (personally I was worried we would run out of time, more than we would throw an INT)
- OMG TURNOVERS!! Yeah, that kind of sucked. But Iowa is actually really good at forcing turnovers, so it's not that unexpected. Instead of freaking out about the turnovers, realize that even being -4, we still managed to stay within 2 points of a pretty darn good team. Yes it's frustrating, but it also shows that our players have good resilience to come back from those kind of emotional swings. Last year we woulda folded like superman on laundry day. We're only one year removed from a 3-9 year, you can't expect us to be world beaters just yet. We're young, We're learning, and we're going to get better.
- Why does the O-Line suck??? Uhm, no. No. It just played an awesome game against a pretty awesome D-line. Iowa's D-line was twisting and stunting all night, and the line gave our QB's enough time to win.
- Why can't we cover the TE? That guy meowmeowyaki, (or whatever his name is) is an all Big Ten guy. On his first TD he made an awesome fake block and held it for a long time before leaking out. He gave a great false key to our D guy who was in man coverage. It was a brilliantly designed play. Almost like a screen. And he's been out of the lineup for a few games, so the team didn't get to study much recent film on him. He also catches like 10 balls a game or something ridiculous like that. On his second TD, he was the TE on the other side of the formation where they had been running for like 15 straight plays. we had to sell out on the run just to stop the bleeding. He came all the way across on the bootleg and just got lost. It happens. If we could run to one side for 15 straight plays and then do playaction off of that, it would be deadly too. In fact it was back in the days of Griese to Tuman.
- Zoltan is still awesome. I'd say he won his matchup of All-American punters tonight. He was booming 60 yarders all night. I was afraid he was going to out kick the coverage, but we managed to get the tackles.
- Brandom Graham! I think he had 3 sacks and was a beast in most other respects. He had two bad plays (roughing the kicker, and missing stanzi on a rollout) but neither one of them had an impact on the game. (because of mathews fumble, and the D stopped stanzi short of the 1st down anyway)
- Troy! Seemed to be an upgrade at the corner position. (but yeah, mike williams had a couple of breakdowns)
- Brandon Minor. I don't think he's really healthy yet, but he's a workhorse. He basically carried the whole team on his 2nd TD drive.
- Odoms. Had one drop but is turning into an excellent possession receiver.
- O-line. It's coming together. There was a time when we kept running to the right and blowing people off the ball. That was a nice drive. And we scored 3 rushing touchdowns against a team that hadn't given up a single one in 33 FRICKEN quarters.
- GERG! Continues to deliver even though he only has patchwork talent. Let's see what he can do with a couple more recruiting classes.
- Mouton played MUCH better this week.
- Donovan! Yeah, he's awesome.
This week I've introduced a new stat category that is hopefully easier to understand. Basically I just put in a logical operator in the Conversion Efficiency stat that returns a 1 if the score is positive and a zero if it's negative. No one likes negatives. This now makes it a true efficiency that can just be understood as the percentage of times that you throw at a receiver where he is contributing to converting the first down. And so I've renamed the old stat to Conversion Score.
Some things that stand out:
- It's kind of amazing that there are such few redzone passing attempts. This probably speaks well to the talent we have at running back. We're not forced to pass it down there very often.
- Nearly every player has a Conversion Efficiency above 60%, which speaks well about Tate's ability
- The notable exceptions are Mathews, who has gone three games without a catch despite getting 10 balls thrown his way (yes some of those were rain effected), and Grady (19). In Grady's place, Odoms and Roundtree have been getting more looks.
- Other than Carlos, our yac numbers have not been good. And his numbers are inflated due to catching 60 yard swing passes. But even without that he's got the third highest conversion efficiency.
- Ezeh looked bad on Cousin's first long scramble
- In the first half, we were slow to adjust to the bubble screen, especially with white lined up in the slot.
- We were bad on third downs in the first half, both ways. maybe due to it being our first road game.
- Kelvin had an awful drop early on, I think the coaches went away from him a little after that
- I liked the call with Tate at WR, but why run a sweep to that side, meaning you are depending on getting a good block from your QB?
- Koger with a drop too, could it be nerves? I hate the first road game.
- Unfortunate timing for a bad snap, 3rd down in the redzone
- Bad tackling, partially due to the rain?
- MSU killed our zones with corner routes. Cousins has a good arm and was much more accurate this week.
- Coulda called timeout with about 30 seconds left in the half. I can understand not doing it, but with stonum having a pretty good year on returns, we might have left 3 points on the field there, but it woulda been unlikely.
- Talk about a fast first half!
I'm loving how I can actually see the team making good adjustments at halftime. In the first half we were burnt on some bubble screens, and then gave up some big yardage on the fake bubble screen counter pitch or handoff. but on MSU's first drive of the second half we had both parts of that play locked down.(nevermind we just gave up a big TD on this same play at the start of the 4th, they caught us on a blitz and mouton completely ignored the fact that his lineman was pulling. grrrrrrrr bad, very bad.)
- But one adjustment I'd like to have seen sooner, was to only rush 3 and have a 4th guy spy cousins or nichol on 3rd and long.
- I also like seeing Minor and Brown in the backfield at the same time, but Minor didn't hold a block after donovan's INT that would have sprung Carlos to the races. We had caught MSU in a run blitz.
- Actually I like it more with Grady (24) in there because he's a better blocker (I think) and still a decent threat to run.
- At the time, I really thought we should have QB sneaked it on 4th and an inch from our 17, because we had been giving up waaaay too much T.o.P. But while watching the replay I could agree more with the punt. The defense was playing much better than I had thought, despite giving up the long drives. Of course, zoltan must have been thinking we should have gone for it too. OOPS.
- Brandon Graham = teh awesome!
- Our right guard got owned a few times.
- I'm impressed by Roh's pass coverage
- Dear all Defensive lineman, when the man across from you pulls FRICKEN FOLLOW HIM! He'll take you right to the play.
- Denard is just not confident enough in his arm yet. He hesitated on both 2nd and 3rd down called passes.
- I thought the game was almost over when Stonum fumbled. The defense really stepped up in the 4th quarter.
- 3 for 11 on 3rd down until Tate's heroics. Not good enough.
- Stevie Brown was playing with anger, just throwing people down. I like, but he coulda been flagged once, lucky it was still during the play, but it was close.
- Mouton took a terrible angle on Cousins long scramble. He looked like he was jogging. He should run sprints for that effort. A complete lack of effort. Just disgusting. I understand that you're coming up from dropping in coverage and the QB just made you drop your jockstrap, but FRICKEN run after the play in case he fumbles it or something. Don't just give up!
- Right after Stonum made the long TD, you can see a glimpse of GERG grabbing RR, I imagine he's making the case for his defense and asking RichRod to kick it deep. I like that. Shows confidence. Of course it's easier to like it since the D delivered.
- Then GERG had the balls to blitz Kovacs twice on short yardage. Nice.
- Can't argue with going for OT, with the rain and Forcier being completely exhausted after that drive.
- I don't know what the hell Mouton was thinking on Caper's final TD. He put his head down and lept at a man who was engaged with another defender.. Ok, so Troy went high on a guy he shouldn't have, but Mouton is a linebacker who needs to clean up that tackle. Keep your legs and run through it. Someone needs to get him to workout with the wrestling team in the offseason and learn a doubleleg takedown
- MSU pulled out a lot of misdirection plays. It's like night and day compared to their Wisconsin game. I wonder if that was because they were saving the plays, or because of the type of defense WISC was playing. Probably a little of both.
- Our YAC was really down this game. I think two things contributed to this, obviously MSU had pretty good coverage, but many of Tate's throws were low, maybe due to his sore shoulder taking off just a tiny bit of his precision.
But it's strange, I actually feel pretty good about the team after this game. I think a lot of questions got answered on defense. I think JT Floyd is an upgrade at corner over an injured Booboo, and Ezeh had a "better" game, even if he did look bad a couple of times. I'm still worried about Mouton. Van Bergen looked like a man possesed and Roh continues to impress.
I think we're going to have a lot of nail biters in conference play. But this team looks so much better than what we were thinking before the season started. If we finish 7-5 it might be a slight dissapointement after starting 4-0, but a bowl game would be nice. If we go 6-6 and miss a bowl, that'll be a huge dissapointment based on the progress I've seen so far.
Anyway, GO BLUE!
|kickoff||to the 19||Winston looks a little thick to be a return man|
|1st n 10||Ace||1||about as vanilla as can be, off tackle zone dive|
|2nd n 9||5W Trips right||inc||dropped on the crossing pattern|
|3rd n 9||Shotgun slot rt||inc||no one home, MSU got away with a hold|
|4th n 9||Punt||penalty||kick catch interference, must be that famous dantonio discipline|
|1st n 10||Doube Tight rt, slot left||inc||playaction comeback, open but underthrown|
|2nd n 10||offset right||3||counter left|
|3rd n 7||SG, 4W, Double FL left||inc||greg jones with pressure|
|4th n 7||punt||to the 3||nice hangtime|
|WTF?||torrent missing some gametime, must be a replay|
|1st n 10||offset rt, motion slot rt||8||rollout to the field, man open in the zone|
|2nd n 2||offset lt, motion double TE||-5||corner blitz blew up the pitch sweep|
|3rd n 7||4w||7||crossing pattern, generous spot|
|1st n 10||?? Split FB, RB is 9 yards deep||5||counter tre left. Almost like a power iso with a pulling guard|
|2nd n 5||offset rt||-4||Worthy gets good penetration|
|3rd n 9||SG,3w offset lt||2||crappy draw|
|4th n 7||Punt||touchback||really slow to get the punt away|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot lt||8||White on the stop route on the rt into the boundary|
|2nd n 2||I right||1||zone dive left, vanilla, vanilla, vanilla|
|Welcome to the jungle being piped in…eeeewwwww|
|3rd n 1||fuckyou espn||QB sneek||didn't see the play|
|1st n 10||Ace||inc||PA rt, bootleg left, underthrown out n up|
|2nd n 10||SG 4WR||5||Bubble screen rt, dell was shaken up on previous play|
|3rd n 5||SG 5WR, near slots||inc, penalty||missed white over the middle, but PI called|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot lt||2||1 step hook|
|2nd n 8||3WR, slot lt||intercepted||whoops, thrown right to him, complete misread|
|1st n 10||offset rt||15||QB naked boot run|
|1st n 10||3WR offset rt||5||offtackle rt|
|2nd n 5||I slot left, motion I rt||8||offtackle rt|
|1st n 10||Slot left||13||end around to the left|
|1st n goal||I left, 3TE, motion right||4||Dive|
|2nd n goal||Double Tight lt, offset right||TD, penalty||playaction to th TE at the endline on a slant, but negated|
|2nd n goal at 16||4WR, twins right||TD||TE on the seam, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 36||Winston has good speed once he gets going|
|1st n 10||4WR, trips right||-1||zone dive left, vanilla, vanilla, vanilla|
|2nd n 11||SG, slot right||14||draw trap right, Caper bounces it outside|
|1st n 10||I left||12||5 step drop, comeback, vanilla|
|1st n 10||double tight, I left||14||offtackle rt, vanilla|
|1st n 10||I left||8||hook on the right, cousins does a good job of lookin left at snap|
|2nd n 2||I slot left||3||offtackle right, vanilla|
|1st n 10||motion, slot left||inc||badly overthrown|
|2nd n 10||offset left, near WR||inc||badly overthrown, should have ran it, the flood had taken everyone away|
|3rd n 10||SG, slot left||TD||jump ball fade to dell who made a nice adjustment, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 31||looked like there was a lane, but he got tripped up|
|1st n 10||shift, offset right||penalty||Playaction, post man caught the ball, but negated|
|1st n 10||offset rt, twins left||5||FB in the flat|
|2nd n 5||one back, strong left||18||MSU blitzed, picked up, playaction TE in left flat|
|1st n 10||offset right, slot right||inc||underthrown on the out route|
|2nd n 10||1 back, 3WR, twins right||17||Trap right, Clay bounces it for a big gain|
|1st n 10||1 back, motion, offset left||8||counter trap left|
|2nd n 2||I slot left, motion rt||0||QB boot, is stuffed|
|3rd n 2||1 back, twins left||16||comeback on the outside, #9 for MSU missed tackle|
|1st n goal at 6||4 WR, trips right||TD||TE hooked at the goal line, low ball, nice catch, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 24|
|1st n 10||I left||0||Nichol, power option left, nicely defended|
|2nd n 10||I right||12||8 yard hook to the left boundary, Dell|
|1st n 10||I right (looks illegal)||intercepted||jump ball on a fly to the right sideline, terrible throw, safety in position|
|1st n 10||1 back, 3WR, motion strong rt||inc||boot right, field side, good coverage|
|2nd n 10||Shift, oneback, h-back left||penalty||encroachment, more dantonio discipline|
|2nd n 5||motion offset right||7||TE (lined up at FB) in the flat, same play as before|
|1st n 10||motion, offset left||4||offtackle trap left|
|2nd n 6||flanker right||penalty||bad formation, illegal motion|
|2nd n 11||SG 3WR, twins right||penalty||missed on the comeback, but sparty got PI, held the jersey|
|1st n 10||motion offset right||1||offtackle trap rt, MSU finally adjusts and shuts this down|
|2nd n 9||1 back, 3WR, flanker left||inc||ball batted on what was going to be another comeback route|
|3rd n 9||SG, 3WR, twins left||15||rub route cross to the left|
|1st n 10||fuckyou espn, twins right?||5||rollout to the right (field), comeback was wide open|
|2nd n 5||twins left||inc||fly route was wide open, overthrown|
|3rd n 5||4WR||6||hook to the boundary slot|
|1st n 10||3WR, twins left||17||In to the boundary side (right) and a facemask|
|1st n goal at 1||I 3TE||inc||play action, overthrown, both crossing TE were wide open|
|2nd n goal at 1||I, 3TE||TD||Inside Trap, clay just bowls in, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 21|
|1st n 10||SG, Slot left||1||draw trap left, Wisc DT's blow it up with penetration|
|2nd n 9||SG, slot left||-7||Cousins sacked, had the flat left, but didn't see it.|
|3rd n 17||SG, slot right||penalty||Dell went out, and caught the ball for an apparent first, but negated|
|4th and 17||Punt||to the 47||punter went down, no flag, hit by own man|
|1st n 10||SG, trips left||inc||ball dropped, a little low, to the left, nickle blitz was picked up|
|2nd n 10||SG, split, flanker left||inc||another blitz, another pickup, and another drop|
|3rd n 10||SG, split, flanker left||inc||pressure, overthrown, anderson beat the right tackle|
|4th and 10||punt||at the 15||fair caught|
|1st n 10||5WR, trips left||17||Dell on the out|
|1st n 10||slot left, confusion||inc||threw inside of the slot on the cross out|
|2nd n 10||5WR, trips left||3||boundary slot ran a flat|
|3rd and 7||4WR||inc||commenters ripping on the sparty offense, haha, overthrown|
|4th n 7||Punt||to the 28||low kick,made two men miss, but the first came back to make tackle|
|1st n 10||twins right||4||Dive left|
|3rd Quarter||21-7 wisconsin leads|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 15||nice coverage|
|1st n 10||I, double tight right||13||offtackle trap right|
|1st n 10||I tight, left||6||Iso left|
|2nd n 4||I doulbe tight left||fumble||pitch sweep, bad hands by the RB|
|1st n 10||Ace||2||Zone dive left, cutback right, vanilla|
|2nd n 8||I left||15||counter trap left, winston busts through some arm tackles|
|1st n 10||I slot left||4||Iso right|
|2nd n 6||I right,||-2||Sweep right, run blitz blew it up|
|3rd n 8||split, flanker left||inc||overthrown to the right, white was wide open on the far side|
|4th n 8||FG||FG|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 26||short kick|
|1st n 10||Double Tight left, motion||6||counter dive, nice cutback|
|2nd n 4||Offset left||2||inside trap|
|3rd n 2||I tight right||5||counter play action, TE flat|
|1st n 10||I tight right||2||Trap right|
|2nd n 8||1 back, twins left||6||trap left, the DT whose guy pulled just missed a TFL|
|3rd n 2||Offset, strong left||4||student body left|
|1st n 10||Double tight left, offset right||3||counter tre right|
|2nd n 7||I doulbe tight left||3||counter tre left|
|3rd n 4||strong I right||penalty||PA to TB in the flat, but negated by downfield block|
|3rd n 3||? Uhh..wingbacks?||3||counter trap left|
|1st n 10||Strong I, double tight left||5||Dive left|
|2nd n 5||Strong I, double tight left||0||Counter trap left|
|3rd n 5||SG, 4WR, Left side near stacked||7||just a simple out|
|1st n 10||I left, shift, I right||0||Offtackle right|
|2nd n 10||1 back, twins left||inc||deflected at the line|
|3rd n 10||SG twins left||inc||pressure, overthrown, both tackles were beaten|
|4th n 10||FG||FG|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 30||Winston is a load, but he doesn't have the acceleration|
|1st n 10||1 back, double tight left||9||PA Zone left, TE moved like he was pulling but went to the flat, first non vanilla play|
|2nd n 1||slot left, motion ace,||12||Dive left, weak play, but roken arm tackles|
|1st n 10||Strong I right,||27||PA TE on the seam, nice pass, nice catch|
|1st n 10||Offset right||3||Trap left, play was stuffed, but winston falls forward for a couple|
|2nd n 7||slot right||TD||play action post, amazing catch by cunningham, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 31||hesitated coming out of the endzone|
|1st n 10||motion, offset right||45||PA fly, nice pass, stutter and go|
|1st n 10||strong I left||1||counter tre left|
|2nd n 9||strong I right, motion left||3||offtackle right|
|4th Quarter||wisconis 24-17|
|3rd n 6||4WR,||TD||slot guy beat man coverage and a nice pass in front of the safety, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||penalty||returned to the 34, penalty to the 7|
|1st n 10||3 WR, split flanker right||10||FB in motion, ran an 8 yard hook|
|1st n 10||SG, 3WR slot right||inc||underthrown on the seam|
|2nd n 10||4WR||13||hot slant to the slot|
|1st n 10||I left||fumble||Iso to the right, more penetration by the wisc DL|
|1st n 10||Strong I right||2||off tackle left, MSU got penetration|
|2nd n 8||I right, shift, offset left||7||Off tackle right, nice cutback, great blocking on the backside|
|3rd n 1||Strong I right,||TD||PA, blitz was picked up, no one coverd the TE, PAT good|
|That's his third TD!|
|1st n 10||Ace||5||Zone dive left, vanilla|
|2nd n 5||split, flanker right||inc||overthrow|
|3rd n 5||penalty||false start|
|3rd n 10||SG, 3WR, slot right||35||nice pass beating the deep zone|
|1st n 10||SG, 3WR, slot left||5||TE ran an out|
|2nd n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||inc||tipped, nearly intercepted|
|3rd n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||inc||held the ball too long, good coverage, overthrown|
|4th n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||8||boundary WR ran a slant, took a big hit but held on|
|1st n 10||?? Fuespn, SG slot right?||inc||barely overthrown cunningham on the deep post|
|2nd n 10||SG, ace||inc||white dropped the 5 yard hook|
|3rd n 10||SG, 4WR, trips left||inc||wanted the screen to the left (boundary)|
|4th n 10||SG, 4WR||sacked||that's the ball game.|
|1st n 10||Strong offset right||5||missed handoff, QB kept for positive yards|
|2nd n 5||offset right||17||Clay just running through arm tackles|
|1st n 10||Strong offset left||2||just grinding the clock|
|2nd n 8||Twins left||7||counter trap left|
|3rd n 1||Strong I right||4||off tackle left|
|1st n 10||Strong I left||2||counter tre left, wisconsin is starting to look as vanilla as MSU|
|The difference is that they have a 21 point lead|
|2nd n 8||Offset right, motion||0||QB kept it, maybe a busted play|
|3rdn n 8||4WR, stacked right||7||rollout right, hit the out route, good tackle to prevent the first down|
|4th n 2||Strong offset left||0||pitch sweep left|
|1st n 10||5WR trips right||penalty||false start|
|1st n 15||5WR trips right||27||Dell, Wisc is in umbrella|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot left||6||slot out|
|2nd n 4||F .U. espn ??||25||Nichols runs a QB keeper for a nice pickup,|
|Looked like max protect, 3 men in the pattern|
|1st n 10||4WR||inc||tipped|
|2nd n 10||SG 3WR slot right||inc||jump ball to dell, hung up in the air|
|3rd n 10||SG 4WR||intercepted||jump ball to the endzone, msu got away with more holding|
|1st n 10||Strong I||1||run left|
|2nd n 9||offset right||6||run right|
|3rd n 3||??||1||QB boot, held it, just killing clock here|
|4th n 2||punt||to the 37|
|1st n 10||SG slot left||20?||Sims is wide open against the prevent zone|
|1st n 10||SG ?||inc||overthrow on the flag route|
|2nd n 10||SG 4WR||20?||deep out is open|
|1st n 10||SG 3WR||TD||Soft zone and missed tackle, WR dove over the pylon, 2pt no good, sacked|
|kickoff||onside kick||wisconsin recovers|
|1st n 10||run|
|2nd n 14||run|
|who cares||punt to the 9 yard line|
|1st n 10||SG 5 WR||91 TD||how the hell does that happen?|
|What was the point spread?|
|kickoff||onside kick||wisconsin recovers|
- MSU's offense was BOOOOOORRRRRRRIIIIIINGGGG!!!
- Which was strange since I saw them run several trick plays against CMU (CMU!)
- Winston is a bruiser, but not very nimble.
- Caper has good strength and speed and likes to bounce it outside
- Blair white had a horrible day, but he looked pretty acrobatic against CMU
- Their TE Sims looks like a decent pass catching threat
- Their offensive tackles were getting pushed around all day
- Dell is a pretty good jumper, but he seemed to be suffering from the same landing problems as the ND receivers. Nearly broke his own collarbone.
- Cunningham is a fairly athletic receiver too
- Cousins did not have a good day. Way too many overthrows.
- My impression is that he's not really that good at reading defenses.
- Of course he is just a sophomore (but tate's a frosh!)
- If they only run zone stretches and dives at us all day, ezeh and mouton might actually end up with plusses in brian's UFR
- Nichols is not much of a passing threat. He's got a decent arm, but his instinct is to run. And let's just say he doesn't have Denard's speed.
- He also didn't look that great on the one option play they ran, but maybe Wisc just had it defended well.
- Greg jones was causing havok all day, but Wisc did a good job neutralizing him with short passes and extra TE's to block.
- This is a trap running team. There is almost always a pulling lineman
- They have about 5 running plays but
- they run them from about a hundred different formations
- And they use a ton of motion and shifts, so it's hard to determine what formation they're in until late
- Which is important, because they run to strength nearly 90% of the time (estimate)
- Their TE graham had a great day.
- Toon looked like a very serviceable receiver.
- This will be a "line em up and smack em in the face" game when we play them. I'm hoping will campbell is ready for some major minutes by that time.
- so, worry if we've got defenders running around looking like they're lost before the snap.
So what's it mean for this week?
I've seen 3 of sparty's games and they looked worse than normal against Wisconsin. They seemed emotionally lethargic. It wasn't really as close as the final score. Wisconsin made them pay for silly turnovers. Even the play calling was ridiculously vanilla. It was like watching a game from 1993.
Sparty will be up for us this week. Expect them to play much better. Expect them to have special trick plays, that they were saving for us. I think our front 7 will be able to slow down their run game "enough", but yes, I'm worried about the corner-not-named-warren.
What worries me most is that it's in east lansing, where nefarious shenanigans have been known to take place. I forsee a pretty high scoring game. But with the good guys coming out on top thanks to Tate's general awesomeness, and Denard's teleportation powers.
I say Michigan 41- Sparty 34
UM vs. EMU
- eh, it's just a mac team. can't really tell much.
- of course CMU is just a mac team too, so of course I prefer this result to MSU's
- Booboo seemed to do much better when not covering future NFL stars. still was giving a little too much room on the goal line though.
- Carlos is fast.
- Carlos might have a future in the NFL as a third down back. Decent blocker on the blitz pickup. Catches the ball well out of the backfield. Has that home run speed. But he needs to work on his leg strength. he goes down a little to easily.
- We absolutely MUST get Denard on the field more. I don't care how. He's just too much of a threat to not have on the field against the tougher competition. If not, it's a huge waste. (Korean word for the week, 아깝다 "akapda!")
- It's not that Denard is fast, he's got amazing quickness. He's got major acceleration (and the little known third time derivative of position, "Jerk") that is usually just called a quick first step. But it's more than that. His acceleration is not linear. I'm in awe.
- Sparty, NO! wow, two weeks in a row. talk about rescuing defeat from the jaws of victory.
- Their QB's actually looked pretty good, except for the last two passes.
- ND's outside receivers have great ups, but they need to work on their landing skills. even last week, tate dropped the ball when he landed on his back, floyd skinned his knee. and they had some other drops. this week floyd breaks his collarbone and tate dives into the wrong band (which, LOL!) along with some other drops.
- Rudolph is a serious receiving threat. Pass catching tightends are pretty valuable in the pro's. But he needs to bulk up and learn how to block better
- MSU was slow to adjust to rudolph on the bubble screen. They kept blitzing from the far side but never got there.
- How many TE's do you see running bubble screens?
- ND fans shouldn't get uppity about this win just yet. They had to beat MSU eventually, and got a little lucky that sparty spartied themselves this week.
- ND looks like it might go 9-3 or 10-2 and with the loses by byu and utah might end up in a bcs bowl (which makes me want to PUKE!)
- Auburn's offense looks a lot like the old single wing, just out of a shotgun formation.
- WVU was on its way to a blowout until Jarret Brown turned into a turnover machine.
- I chalk that up to bad coaching and a lack of mental discipline.
- There's something about Auburn's uniforms or shoulder pads that make them look slow. They're not, they just look slow. Maybe their guys are wearing extra rib protection or something.
- Mallet looks pretty good
- I keep thinking he's only got 4 plus games of experience, but he's really in his third year out of highschool and looks much more like a polished junior than a guy in his 6th game.
- But he did stink it up in the fourth quarter, probably due to georgia's defensive adjustments. But hey, coffee is for closers.
- I don't know why Arkansas would ever run, other than to just keep the defense honest. their passing attack is so much better than their rushing attack.
- Just like WVU, it looked like Arkansas was going to blow them out, but turnovers helped swing it the other way.
- I think Erin Andrews is dressing more conservatively since her incident.
- Holy crap, Ben Terry has 12 fingers! Someone go tell Inigo Montoya! Mutants are walking amongst us! Shenanigans! Shenanigans!
- Brian Kelly = good coach
- If you were him, would you go to a second tier SEC school just for a ton of money... eh, yea probably.
- Why exactly was BYU favored in this game? Ok, so they have a nice offense, but if you looked just at talent, FSU has bigger and faster players at just about every position. FSU looked really good in coming up just short against miami. That was a BCS powerhouse game. BYU looked pretty meh in defeating a bradfordless oklahoma. yeah, FSU looked lethargic against jacksonville state (or whatever they're called), but it's an emotional letdown game and completely understandable.
- Anyone else think it's unfair that many of BYU's players are like 26?
- So now Boise will finally be ranked ahead of BYU (which, like DUH!) but boise's schedule is pretty awful.
- Why the hell is ole miss ranked so high? What exactly have they done? (this was written before last night's game)
- The more time I have to watch actual football, the less desire I have to read about it. It's completely backwards. Sports columnists don't write much in the offseason when I actually need something to fill the void. And during the season I don't really care what their uninformed opinions are because I can download the games for myself.
- I have almost completely stopped reading columnists I used to read weekly just a couple years ago. Easterbrook, Fiutak, Mandel. Maybe if I was stuck at work all day and needed a diversion. But they seem to be filled with stupid opinions, and I hate stupidity. I want actual analysis.
- Picture pages are awesome.
- In general, anything worth reading regarding Michigan is posted to the board here, so why bother wading through all the unrelated crap at the big websites?
- Or why bother reading some guy's opinion about michigan when he only saw the 5 plays that made the highlight reel?
- not a great week for the big ten, but still virtually tied with the pac ten and SEC for best out of conference records.
- The top of the MAC has definitely pulled even with the middle of the big ten.
- Indiana is 3-0. Who woulda thought this was going to be a matchup of undefeateds just a month ago?
- If iowa beats PSU, should I be excited that PSU is mortal or worried about going into Iowa? I guess both.
Before we get started, I just want to say "WOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!" I know it's thursday, but that's how good that game made me feel! Ok, now lets get to it.
As always, small sample sizes screw around with efficiency stats. But as the numbers accumulate, these will be more telling. So please have patience.
Category 1: Yards/TA is the total receiving yardage divided by the number of times a receiver is "thrown at". The idea here is that if a receiver can't get open, or if he drops the ball, his stats should reflect that in some way. "Thrown at" can be subjective if more than one receiver is in the area. But usually the primary receiver can be deduced based on alignment, coverage, routes, and who the QB chews out after the play. In extreme cases of throw aways or intentional groundings, no receiver is assigned. But if the QB throws it at the feet of a RB who can't get open on a screen, that still counts.
Category 2: YAC/TA is the amount of yards after the catch divided by the number of times thrown at. This measure is especially important for slot receivers and running backs who can make a lot of easy catches near or behind the line of scrimmage, but then have to make something happen with their feet.
Category 3: C Eff stands for Conversion Efficiency. I've made a change to this metric to reduce the amount of negative numbers. The formula is :
This isn't really an efficiency in the strictest sense of the word (more of an average score), but positive numbers here indicate that a receiver is doing enough to continue moving the chains and collecting first downs. On first down, a receiver only needs to get 1/4 of the remaining yards to go to get a positive score. But on 4th down, if the receiver doesn't convert, there's no more chances, and he gets a big old negative for coming up one yard short. If it's 3rd and 8 and you only get 5 yards, that's negative. But if you get 7, even though you didn't convert, you made it easier to convert on 4th down, so the score is positive.
Category 4: R Eff stands for Redzone Efficiency. This is just the number of TD's scored in the redzone divided by the number of times thrown at in the redzone (I count the redzone as the 20 yardline and closer, some people like the 25). This number is important for TE, FB, and bigger WR. Every team needs at least one person who can score high on this metric. Otherwise you're doomed to lots of bad angle field goal attempts. (unless your running game is awesome)
|Player||Yards/TA||YAC/TA||C Eff||R Eff|
I included ND's top four for comparison's sake. The high numbers across the board for Yards/TA show what a wild game it was. Another thing that stands out is Carlos Brown's ability to get yards coming out of the backfield. Allen and Rudolph both got big chunks of yards on screens leading to their high YAC/TA . Mathews kind of had another rough day, (better than last week) but BOY DID HE COME THROUGH WHEN IT MATTERED!
Now that's a guy who looks like he's having fun on the sidelines!
It's still just week 2, but here's the Year to date stats.
|Player||Yards/TA||YAC/TA||C Eff||R Eff|
Can't really draw conclusions from this yet, other than that Grady has not been much of a factor in the passing game (he got some good runs against western michigan). This may be due to ND's scheme cutting off our bubble screens.
Our running game has been good enough where we haven't really needed to throw much in the Redzone. But Koger is still 2 for 2 on the year.
You can see the loss of Hemingway really hurt during the ND game. Not just on catching the long ball, but also on bubble screens and just plain fighting for yards after a catch. Just like rushing stats, you want a YAC/TA above 3, and closer to 4. But it's not as important for outside receivers.
And now for the random comments:
- I'm really beginning to hate the 3 addidas stripes on the back of the coaches shirts. I keep seeing them during many different games and they remind me of nazi barcodes.
- A Duke DB had back to back pick 6's. 16 seconds apart! I've never seen that before.
- The big ten had a bunch of squeakers. Only PSU, ILL, and Iowa won by more than a TD. The margins of victory in the other games were 3, 4, 2, 3, 4, 7, 3, 2. Exciting football, but not real great for the conference's image. However, the conference is still 18-4 and basically tied with the pac 10 for the best non-conf record.
- USC won, but did not "kill" tosu as predicted here last week. I chalk this up to homefield advantage.
- But that also makes me worry about our trip to MSU as it's our first road game (some, CMU did just beat them there).
- And it makes me think ND will get some bogus calls and help from the crowd to beat MSU this week.
- THANK GOD, they didn't play that Chesney crap country music this week! At least I didn't hear it, if they played it.
- The blue block "M" looks awesome from the aerial shots! Way to go students. Now if the alumni could just figure out that there's a huge block M painted on the eastern side of the stadium...
- I thought GERG made excellent halftime adjustments!
- Clausen STILL can't handle pressure. Every ND opponent from here on out should just blitz the hell out of him.
- UCLA looks to be greatly improved too. I hope they upset USC.
- I'm loving that a 4 gigabyte torrent only takes me 20 minutes to download!
- With no bye weeks, we really need to use the next two weeks as an opportunity to get healthy. Conference play is going to be a grind. Thank god for a well placed delaware state matchup.
- It's really hard to keep my expectations down after that game. I have to remind myself that 7-5 and a bowl game would still be awesome. (even if I am dreaming of 10-2)