Trying to make a fair evaluation (long)

Submitted by msoccer10 on
I am not a coach, just an avid fan. If you don't want to read a long winded evaluation of our season by a lamen, please just skip it and don't bother slamming me I think many people get on here and make extreme statements like "we will win 10 national championships in the next few years" or "Rodriguez is terrible and we would have won 9 or 10 games with Les Miles". Of course, there are a number of people who try to be reasonable. I will try to make my case for what has been good or bad this year. I think a 6-6 year would have been a good year. By that I mean, the team would be outperforming reasonable expectations based on all the factors going into the season. Those factors are the same ones Brian laid out for us in the summer. If you have followed college football closely and this blog before the season, you know how hard it would be to get a team as inexperienced as this one and make it a big time winner. Let's look at our schedule. Utah-a possible BCS buster with a running senior QB. They should beat us on paper. The only reason they didn't get more press preseason is that they were supposed to lose to us in their first game and that would have killed their BCS hopes. I don't think they are a great team and if we lined the same teams up against them next year, i think we would win. But not this year with only one returning starter on offense. (I don't count Butler) Miami-we should never lose to a MAC team. Just my opinion but the recruiting difference is so vast. The only time it should maybe happen is when we are having a really down year and its the best MAC team in the conference with a bunch of seniors. Notre Dame-They are a young team with an overated coach, but they still have a bunch of sophomores with more experience than us who were part of a great recruiting class. We played in South Bend. I thought they should beat us on paper. Wisconsin-should have killed us on paper. Of course, they ended up being worse than we thought, but still, they have a better team than us this year. Illinois- they are better than us this year. Juice Williams alone put this game in their favor. (I did however incorrectly pick an upset here in my preseason predictions) Toledo- see above about MAC teams. Penn State- We knew they'd have a decent team this year. No way we should beat them on paper. MSU- On paper we're closer to these guys but its a rivalry we've been winning a lot. We needed a great comback last year. MSU was due and they have a pretty good runner in Ringer. MSU should win this. Purdue- Sadly, we are close to this team on paper but by now inexperience isn't as much of a factor as the year goes on. I thought we should win this. Minnesota- I didn't predict the turn around for them, but we should beat them. We just have more talent. Northwestern- Tough one to predict preseason because they played us tough last year. However, its at home and we have had a season to work out the kinks. I think this is a game we should win. OSU-Preseason these guys destroy us on paper. Looking at that, it seemed like, imho, if we played at our players potential: wins- Miami, Toledo, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern. Loses-Utah, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU, PSU, OSU I hoped we'd win in an upset and not get upset ourselves making a "good" season 6-6. Now the reality. Early in the year, things went approximately how I expected. Our offense was more inept than I had imagined and the defense not quite as good as I had hoped, but there were moments and our offense looked like it had potential if you squinted just right. But we beat Miami like we were supposed to and even got our upset against Wisconsin. We had a two point conversion to tie Utah and outplayed Notre Dame in every department except turnovers and points. We went up by 14 over Illinois and all sorts of unrealistic ideas floated through my head. Then Juice sliced us up and we were at 2-2. Then, Toledo happened. I blame a lot of the game on Threet being out in the second half, but I think our team should have won anyway. I don't blame our coaches as much as the players. The scheme wasn't enough of an issue that I can ignore the lack of playmaking. MSU- Our D and our offense let us down this game. We scored 21 points but had a lot of three and outs. Either way, MSU was just a better team than us this year, imo. Purdue- First major complaint against Rodriguez starts here. I think the 3-3-5 was a mistake. As Brian and a lot of other people on this site have stated, we need our best 4 players on the field. Also, putting Harrson or Cissoko at db/linebacker puts another better defender out there instead of Thompson. I think Rodriguez took a chance and was wrong. Minnesota- good game for us but don't forget we had a really hard time getting in the end zone and Sheridan got lucky on a couple passes. Northwestern- Really depressing. Also, typical for the season. Our defense hasn't improved throughout the year the way you would hope. D played well for most of the game but gave up touchdowns on three long passes. They also gave up a lot of short passes in the second half. Our secondary is a huge disappointment and I do blame our coaches for not getting them to play better as the year went on. Our offense looked terrible. Against NW we had our worst offensive performance since Toledo. Maybe it was the weather. Maybe it was the Threet-Sheridan tango. Maybe it was missing Minor. Whatever it was, the offense took a step back and its too late in the year to completely blame it on inexperience. There is some lack of talent this year compared to years past, but we still have more than NW. Imho, Rodriguez has to share blame for NW. Our special teams has also been the same all year. Half it is great, the other disaster. We scored on a punt block, but gave them great field position on the Odoms blunder and missed a field goal. So, how much of this season can we blame on Rodriguez? Not much, but some. I think our players significantly underperformed in a few games. Our defensive and special teams coaching are a bigger issue right now I think. Our season has gone a lot worse than I thought possible. At the beggining of the season, I would not have been surprised with a 4-8 finish, but that really was my absolute bottom. In the end, beating OSU will be the only thing to redeem this season. Otherwise, it will be a long cold winter waiting for our team to start playing to its potential again, and hopefully, exceeding it.

Comments

Huss

November 17th, 2008 at 11:22 AM ^

You could have just said: We all expected a rough season. Maybe 6 wins. But we were epic fail against Toledo, NW and such. Those tiny margins are the difference between a .500 season and an 8 loss season. Beating OSU will erase any of this seasons hardships. See? Isn't that better than a long, ego-stroking diary entry? P.S. You'd also sound a lot smarter if you quit mentioning who we should have "beat on paper." This isn't NCAA 09 - what you perceive about the talent on this team isn't exactly true.

tbliggins

November 17th, 2008 at 11:38 AM ^

How is it ego-stroking if he fully admits at the beginning that he simply an avid fan? While I don't agree w/ everything here, it just nice to see someone looking at the season on the whole w/out saying "OMG RR SUX!".

Huss

November 17th, 2008 at 11:54 AM ^

his evaluation has been repeated ad-nauseum around here. He's just another in a long line who try to look at the games "objectively" yet still insist that we "should" be beating team x and somehow thinks he's qualified to determine that the coaches "failed" with our secondary.

ShockFX

November 17th, 2008 at 12:04 PM ^

Objectively thinking we "should" win any game this year with Sheridan at QB is to deny reality. He's awful, and only Minnesota failing to catch balls thrown right to them prevented another loss there.

msoccer10

November 17th, 2008 at 12:35 PM ^

yes, but I feel we "should" be able to run, play defense, and punt well enough to win against the likes of NW and Toledo, especially at home. That's how OSU beat us last year. That is how a lot of teams win. Baltimore won the goddamn super bowl that way. Clearly, our D isn't what we expected, but as long as Sheridan doesn't turn the ball over, which he didn't Saturday, our team should have a chance, which they did despite him playing piss poor. We lost Saturday because of the defense giving up bad tds and our special teams mistakes just as much as Sheridan's play. Also, all of this is opinion.

ShockFX

November 17th, 2008 at 8:41 PM ^

I feel that after watching the team play so far, "should" goes out the window. The only should that I can see goes like this, "Michigan SHOULD NEVER have a walk-on QB start over half the games in a season."

Michigan Arrogance

November 17th, 2008 at 12:13 PM ^

"we have the most inexperienced offense in the nation" i'm not being a dick (this time)... but is there a data base that has this info anywhere? I've been thinking about this a lot this year... specifically: [talent] + [experience] == [team qaulity]. but is the operator + or *? should talent/experience be squared? IDK.... but i thought it might be interesting.

Huss

November 17th, 2008 at 12:24 PM ^

another offense that has just one returning Oline starter(who isn't that good: Schilling), the rest of whom includes a converted DT. Then you have the backs and receivers, and true freshmen are our leading yardage-makers at both RB and WR. No returning starters to be found here either. Then you have the QBs, and I'm not even getting into that. I don't think there are any stats short of going through every teams eligibility chart and such - but considering we had zero seniors to consider as offensive captains in preseason, that's pretty telling. I'd love to find another team that had 10 offensive starters that didn't play at all last year.

jfs52

November 17th, 2008 at 12:23 PM ^

Yeah, I don't see the problem with this post, it seems mostly right to me. I think it bears repeating too- for not only the reason stated by tbliggins, but also for the other side of the extreme opinions coin- people that think that RR is somehow blameless this year. The following statements are NOT mutually exclusive: 1. RR should not be fired 2. RR is having a bad season. I think both of those statements are true.

myrtlebeachmai…

November 17th, 2008 at 4:37 PM ^

and that some people need to learn to read: a) forewarning that it's long and b) that the author isn't claiming any "qualifications" other than a lay-opinion. The fact is there are a lot of people who agree with you, and this post is nowhere near "ad nauseum" as the plethora of "we can't blame anyone, coaches or players, because we're just to young" posts around here

maizenblue311

November 17th, 2008 at 7:46 PM ^

OK, I have been a Michigan fan since the ripe-old age of 11...and I am not 28. I have loved every second of Michigan football until this year. I thought that a few years ago when the team went 7-5, that was the worst that I was ever going to witness in my lifetime. That was until this year. I was all for Rich Rodriguez (although I would have prefered Les Miles), but THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE. Being 3-8 heading into the Ohio State game is just totally unacceptable. Michigan is not a program that has up and down years...every once in a blue moon they put together a 7-5 season, but the very next year they are in the top 15 and ready to compete! I just can't believe they didn't think about this more before going with RR. The second point I wanted to make was about the hiring of RR. There has to be some sort of process as where the AD asks the question during the interview, "what do you know about the UM-OSU rivalry and what do you plan to do to keep the rivalry alive and bring the shift in power back to Michigan?" I don't believe that this question was ever asked to RR...when he talkes about the game, it just seems like it is another game to him. Does he not unstand that there is only 1 game each year that TRULY matters...and that game is OSU? This isn't just another game...this is life for Michigan! I'm not sure that he will ever have the mentallity and shear determination to destroy OSU...which was evident from when he was introduced in Crisler Arena and continues to be evident in his interviews. I am just an outraged fan who has truly lost sleep and who is totally consumed by what has become of his beloved Wolveries...we are not the Hurricanes, Florida State, or even Notre Dame! We don't fall off the map, not even for a year! It is truly too Great, to be a WOLVERINE!