True Freshman Punters and You: Partners in Freedom

How about Ws for Will? Nice writeup, sounds like the least of our worries.

Really good idea for a diary. It's always great to get solid confirmation for gut feelings; after all, they might be ulcers.

The only problem I can foresee is a few "freshmen mistakes" under duress.  Stereotypically, "freshman mistakes" are usually chalked up to a "lack of poise," but are more than likely part of the learning curve concerning "game speed," which is a lot faster in major college ball than in HS.  Once that adjustment is made, though, I really think he will be fine.

Hopefully, any "freshman mistakes" happen at times when they don't cost the team a game.  Everybody will get to laugh at him in the locker room afterwards, the coaches will have something to coach him up about, and I can't imagine him making any of them twice.

There are some worries about how long he takes to get his punts off.  He may need to speed up the process a little in college.

Our kicking game is the least discussed part of our team and I am pretty scared by the lack of experience. We just don't know what we are going to get in game situations. I think our field goal unit may cost us a game during the year, but thanks to your diary, I am feeling a lot better about our punting.

I'm much more worried about our FG/PAT kicking. I think that's the part of our ST play that is most likely to contribute mightily to a loss. Aside from fumbling punts ourselves, that is.

but new punters/ kickers will always scare the shit out of me. I sure hope they dont cost us a game this year. It sure sounds like Will is going to be a great one for M. Who are the kickers?

The most meaningful stat here is Hagerup's 44.5 yd average in his senior year. The guy has a boot! While there may be some buried insights in your statistical breakdown, they are not immediately obvious. When the top guys' averages are about 4 yards higher than the middle-of-the-pack guys, we can't make much of the conclusions (issues of punting on a shorter field, etc.). You did point out that there are all kinds of statistics for punters and I don't blame you for not combing through all of those. But, the fact that Hagerup has a huge leg is very encouraging. As long as he can handle the snaps and we have a competent special-teams line, it seems we should be in good shape for the next few years.

Punting-Check. Field Goals/Kickoffs- Unresolved.

Thanks for taking your time man. Good job.

My favorite thing about the stats I found is:

2006:

2007:

Whoops. I'm not sure what happened here, but ouch for Illini special teams. And while the sample size is small, we can determine that using a true freshman punter for two years in a row is not a good thing.

How does Ryan Erxleben not get ranked? You'd think people would be interested in seeing how the son of one of the all time greats performs.

And I am indeed less concerned about Will Hagerup, than Brendan Gibbons.  Still, there is this re: Hagerup  -- we better have some seriously big, nasty, pipe-hittin' brothers out there to protect Hagerup.  Because, as indicated, the option after any injury to Hagerup is.... Tate.

The new luxury boxes will keep sound in but will likely reduce punting distances. Rumor has it that Dollar Bill installed giant fans that will blow in Michigan's favor at key kicking moments.

My brother happens to be on one of your above stated lists.  Quick background.  He averaged 49.5 punts per game his senior year in HS.  He went in as a true freshman and took the position from a 2 year starter.  I can tell you his freshman year, as stated above, his average was about 9.52 yard/punt lower than his senior year avg..  This past year, as a sophomore, he ended up 1st team all conference.  My point... it actually is a big jump from HS to college for punters.  It takes time.  1st off... speed of the game is much faster.  He was told how fast they want him to get off punts and it's night and day from HS.  In HS, you typically did not have really anyone rushing you.  In college.. everyone is trying to make a name for themselves and get on the field.  His coverage team wasn't the greatest his freshman year, so much as they changed the up man a few times, just to protect him a litle longer.  Also, I remember his first, "big" away game, it was a change for him.  In front of more fans than he ever played and the crowd was into it.  He had one blocked... then another.  Got in his head a bit.  He went from playing every down in HS, offense, defense, special teams, to playing 4-6 plays as a freshman, only punting.  You get a bit rusty, standing there on the sidelines.  

I guess my point is/was.  A. It was cool to see my little brother on Mgoblog.  And B.  Expect Will to NOT have a lights out year.  As all true freshman go... it's a change and it takes time.  I have no doubt he'll be fine, but let's not all freak out the 1st time he's on the road and he shanks one off the outside of his foot, flying 12 yards out of bounds.  It happens... be patient.  Let him become a great punter.  My guess is he will NOT average 44.5 yards in college his freshman year.  If he does... the kid is a stud.  Expect around 38/punt.  But as long as the coverage team holds, he gets good hang time, and they protect him... all will be good.  Sometimes distance really isn't as important of a stat.  I'd rather have great hangtime and 38 yards, forcing a fair catch and no return, than a 45 yard line drive punt, and a 30 yard return.  It's ALL about NET yards!  DON'T let them return!  If Will does that... we'll be in great shape!   

Seems to me that in rating a punting prospect, the speed at which a punter gets the ball off his foot is something that gets considered.

While I don't expect him to be Zoltan 2: Electric Boogaloo right off the bat, he was also rated with Zoltan and Brad Nortmann as the only 5.5s on the list.

Also, optimism is much more fun than having another thing to worry about for 2010.