things go poorly
Week 11 analysis and prediction can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-11-yardage-analysis-and-predictions...
I'm not going to go into a review of the Wisconsin game because, honestly, I've forgotten about it already, and I'd rather just keep it forgotten. I will say this... UMs offense had their third worst game of the season in a game in which they needed their best to win.
An interesting stat to note that I heard from Ira on WTKA is that UM is 1-4 when they score less than 21 points in the first half and 6-0 when they do score 21 or more. Let's hope for a fast start against OSU.
Let's move on to the charts shall we.....
As you can see from this chart, UMs defense gave up more than their season average and the offense gained less than their season average. UM has an even tougher contest tomorrow against the Buckeyes. Let's hope they can pull out a ridiculous performance; one that will stand the test of time. Unfortunately, that's exactly what they'll need if they want any chance tomorrow.
As you can see, UM has yet to play an offense as good as Ohio States, nor a defense as good as Ohio States. And OSU's defensive stats aren't even close to the next Big Ten team. They are 70 yards per game better than the next defense, Iowa. One bit of hope is that UM torched Iowa's defense for 522 yards. They'll need this performance tomorrow.
The predictor was pretty close for the Wisconsin game.
Now on to the predictor....
UM does have a chance to outgain the Buckeyes, but they'll need a ridiculous performance out of both their offense and defense. Even then, OSUs defense is giving up a touchdown every 121 yards they give up while UMs defense is giving up a TD every 93 yards. If OSU score 42 points on the day, UMs offense is going to have to gain almost 730 yards of offense just to keep pace.
I guess I'm not even sure what else I can say/type to convey that UM has a very slim chance of winning this game. The game has a better chance of becoming a blowout win for OSU than a UM win. I'm not even going to make a prediction on this because my heart can't take it anymore. Please, God, have mercy on UM football tomorrow.
Week 11 predictions and analysis can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-10-yardage-analysis-and-predictions...
Statistically, UM had a good game defensively and a bad game offensively. Yeah, pretty much what you and I already knew. It's tough to really go into any kind of analysis because with the weather, everything was affected. Both offenses struggled to hang onto the ball. Both defenses probably played their best games of the year. I guess one positive note that can be taken from the Purdue game, and really the entire season, is that UMs offense has still not be held under their opponents average yards given up per game. The Purdue game was the lowpoint for the season, at just over 109% of Purdue's defensive average. On the flipside, UMs defense had their best game of the season statistically. They held Purdue's offense to 82% of their season average. Again, how much of this really matters based on the effect weather played in this game is up to you. I guess the one big thing I'd take away from the Purdue game, besides the win, is that UMs offensive line is really the heart of this offense. They played poorly, thus cutting down time for DR to throw the ball and open up running lanes. Anyway, glad they won, but let's move on.
Before Wisonsin massacred Indiana, they were the 5th ranked defense and 6th ranked offense on UMs schedule. Hanging nearly 600 yards on your opponent will do that to a ranking with such a small sample size. Take these rankings with a grain of salt, but, according to this, Wisconsin is the third best team UM will play this year. That Iowa vs. OSU game this weekend also looks like it could be a great game to watch. Go Hawks.
Percentage Error calculation took a hit this past weekend. UMs offense was short nearly 150 yards and their defense gave up nearly 110 yards less than I predicted. At this point, UMs offense is more capricious, while the defense is more consistent.
Wisconsin got a major boost for their offensive prediction from the IU game, Their average starting position was on the IU 49 yard line, so they scored a bunch of points on fewer yard than it would normally take on average. They were averaging right around 50 yards per TD scored against IU. For the season, Wisonsin is averaging 74 yards per TD scored. Before the IU game, they were averaging nearly 81 yards per TD scored. UM is averaging nearly 97 yards per TD scored on the season. Turnovers, penalties, bad starting field position are all culprits.
With that said, UM still has a good shot in this game. They look like a 6 to 7 point dog going into the game. Add on the -3 for homefield advantage, and you have UM +3 or 4. If UM is going to have any chance in this game, they need a good to great game from the offense and defense.
UM - 472
UW - 450
UM - 42
UW - 38
Week 9 Predictor and analysis can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-9-yardage-analysis-and-predictions-...
Well, as I stated from the previous diary, UM needed to have one of their best games defensively and offensively against Illinois to get a win. While UM giving up 45 after regulation, and 65 for the game, looks bad, yardage wise it was just about what I predicted. Illinois gained 486 yards in regulation and I predicted 458 yards for a 5.7% difference. I think a better metric for showing just how well the UM defene played would be yards/possession. You can also look at the fact that UMs defense held Illinois's offense scoreless on 50% of their possessions (8 of 16). UM tackled well and really seemed to play faster. This is great to see out of a young defense.
UMs offense fair exceeded expectations. Even though they put up 67 points on the day, the team missed opportunities early in the game to get a lead and pull away. Turnovers hurt the offense, but the defense picked them up. Yardage wise, this was UM best game of the season. Illinois typically gives up 275 yards of offense to the opponents. UM put up 601 yards in regulation, a 218% mark. That brings UMs offensive efficiency up to 158.21% for the season.
Moving on to Purdue...
This is what UM has done to date...
Offense and Defense rankings (only teams on UMs schedule). The rankings do not include the head-to-head matchup with UM.
Predictions for Purdue game. Include percentage error, high and low.
Percentage Error season calucation
Taking a look at Purdue's yards/point metric, they're the opposite of what you want. Their offense is scoring slowly, and their defense is giving up points quickly; even more quickly than UMs defense. UMs offense is scoring just about as fast as Purdue's defense is giving them up. All this spells a good game for UM. One theme that seems to classify college football this season is emotion and how you respond. South Carolina goes out and beats #1 Alabama and then loses to unranked Kentucky the following week. Missouri beats #1 Oklahoma and then loses back-to-back games to Nebraska and unranked Texas Tech. Now, while the win over Illinois isn't exactly a win over the number one team in the land, it was an emotional victory for UM. And they have to play on the road this weekend with an even bigger game against Wisconsin the week after. Can UM come out focused against Purdue and take care of business? I think so.
UM - 625
Purdue - 350
UM - 48
Purdue - 24
Post Week Analysis can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-8-yardage-analysis-and-predictions-...
The analysis above for the Penn State game basically found that the only way UM was going to leave Happy Valley with a loss was for the offense to end up on the low end of the prediction and for PSU's offense to gain on the high end of UMs predicted defense. What happened was exactly that.
UMs offense low end was predicted 417 yards. UM gained 423 yards. PSU's offense gained 435 yards with a predicted high end of 438.
What is even more disturbing is that with the yards that PSU gained, they should have only scored around 28 points when you take their yards/point metric for their season average. PSU scored 41 points. This can only be attributed to PSU ridiculous starting field position. Once again, special teams woes have hurt the team. Blame could also be put on the defense for failure to get off the field. UM lost the time of possession by 15 minutes.
When looking at the PSU game and where UMs offensive and defensive efforts rank, we see much the same thing. PSU gained 29.13% more yards than their season average, which is good for 4th worst finish this season (46.28% vs. Indiana, 38.83% vs. UMass, 29.63% vs. MSU).
UMs offense gained 27.41% more yards than the PSU defense averages per game. Normally, you'd think that number was pretty good, except for the fact that, for the season, UMs offense is gaining almost 54% more yards than their opponents give up. That 27% mark is the offense's second lowest mark this season, only beaten out by 14.46% mark put up against MSU.
What's significantly dissappointing about the PSU game numbers? The disastrous showing by the offense and defense come after not only a two-week preperation window, but also after the offense's and defense's best games of the year against Iowa. It seemed there was progress being made on both sides, but the PSU game was a major let down.
Now, moving on to Week 10 of the college football season and UM showdown with Illinois.
Let's bring up the charts....
This game isn't looking too promising for Michigan. It looks like UM is going to need one of their better offensive days of the season AND one of their better defensive days of the season against Illinois. Perhaps if homefield advantage is worth 3 points, then we have a dead heat and only a bad defensive showing will spell doom for UM. That is, of course, given UMs offense gets back on track. It's going to be a tall task against the 15th ranked defense (yards/game) and 12th ranked scoring defense. The only bit of hope is that Iowa is the 12th ranked defense and 8th ranked scoring defense and UM had a good game on both sides of the field.
So, my prediction based on these statistics....
UM - 470 yards
Illinois - 460 yards
UM - 28
Illinois - 31
Just a quick refresher from week 7 game vs. Iowa. Diary can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-6-yardage-analysis-and-predictions-... . UM's offense and defense both came to play against Iowa. The offense was predicted to put up 407 yards of offense. They put up 522 yards. This was UMs best offensive day of the season, posting a 200% of Iowa's season average. This moves UM season average up to gaining nearly 159% of what their opponents typically give up.
The defense also had a stellar day giving up 383 of the predicted 454 yards of Iowa offense. Statistically for the defense, this was their best game of the season. They held Iowa to 91% of their season output. This was the third time this season the UM defense held their opponent under their season average.
The score predictor nearly hit a grand slam two weekends ago. I predicted a 35-28 UM loss. The final score was 38-28 Iowa. Despite UM having a great day moving the ball and having a relatively decent day holding Iowa in yardage, they did not succeed where it counts: on the scoreboard. Iowa was scoring 1 point every 12.69 yards on the season. In the Michigan game, they scored 1 point every 10.08 yards; well above their season average. Iowa had damn good field position all game and plays like Sash made on the block FG returning it past midfield, really hurt UMs chances in this ballgame. Not to mention the TWO!!! kickoffs out of bounds.
Where was UM on yards per point? For the season, UM was scoring a point every 13.75 yards. During the Iowa game, UM scored one point every 18.64 yards. A product, no doubt, of penalties and turnovers. UM, after the Iowa game, is score a point every 14.78 yards. Something interesting to note is that UM was scoring a point every 13.03 yards in 2009. Despte that, UM is on pace to score 78 more points this season than last. Go figure.
What does this mean moving forward?
It all has to be positive. I mean, the DEFENSE HAD THEIR BEST STATISTICAL GAME OF THE SEASON!!! That alone is reason to celebrate. On top of that, UMs offense had their best game as well. If UM can limit their turnovers the rest of the season, or they can create some of defense, then I feel comfortable saying that there isn't a team on UMs remaining schedule that they can't beat.
Anyway, let's move on to week 9. Game at PSU...
Charts first? Yes... CHARTS
Well, with the bye week, UMs stats did not change. However, PSU was able to help their cause a little bit. They put up their second highest point total on their fourth lowest yardage total. That increased the predicted point total by 1 point.
UM still remains a favorite to outgain their opponent in all of their remaining games besides OSU. They are a -113 yard dog to OSU. However, UM was a 48 yard dog to Iowa and out gained them by 139 yards, for a 187 yard turnaround, so anything is possible.
UM - 527 yards
PSU - 369 yards
Score Predictor based on statistics...
UM - 35
PSU - 24
My score predictor based on gut feeling and blue shades - UM 42-17
I just took the prediction down the next avenue. I've calculated a percentage error of my predictions and then formulated a high and low for yardage output and their corresponding point totals.
A quick recap of what week 6 was and what was predicted... Week 6 predictions found in previous diary here.
Prediction vs. Actual
UM offense: 553 yards vs. 377 yards = 68%
UM defense: 495 yards vs. 536 yards = 108%
While UM ended up short of their predicted yards based on ridiculous output to date, they were still able to gain more yards than Sparty typically gives up in a game. (377 vs. 350). On the flipside, the UM defense gave up nearly 100 yards more than Sparty typically gains. Needless to say, those are not good numbers. When you combine them with three turnovers, the likelyhood of a win is slim.
On a positive note, UM left 18 points on the field in the form of a dropped TD by Hemingway and two INTs thrown by DR in the end zone. In other words, UM was three mistakes from being dead even in this game.
My predictor came up with a final score of 40.5 for UM and 39 for Sparty. Not much analysis needed here as score is based entirely on yardage. On to week 7.
Because of the poor numbers, both on offense and defense, Michigan's yardage lead slid nearly 50 yards to Iowa. The Hawkeyes join OSU as the only teams predicted to outgain UM. At this point, Michigan still has a favorable matchup against Purdue and Penn State. The recent success of Illinois has really made that game quite a tossup.
As with last week, I added an offensive and defensive ranking based on yards. MSU moved up 2 spots to number 8 after the UM game. The game this week against Iowa should prove to be another huge test for the Michigan offense.
At this point, with the score predictor, I'm inclined to throw away the "hybrid 2009/2010" stats. We have just edged past the halfway point of the regular season and teams have started to display an identity. As many yards as UM is putting up this year, they just haven't scored as much. It is definitely taking UM more yards to score the same amount of points. Because of the special teams woes [Ed: and bad defense] UM is finding itself in bad field position game-after-game.
UM - 407
Iowa - 454
UM - 28
Iowa - 35