Time is a Flat Football: Wide Receivers

Submitted by MilkSteak on

  "Time is a Flat Football" is a series of posts which will explore players from Michigan football history members of the 2015 team resembles the most. Tackled in these posts will be the offensive "skill" position groups: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Receivers/Tight Ends. My apologies go out to the offensive line, but it's very difficult to get o-line statistics, and more difficult to compare the groups. I used Python and Pandas almost exclusively for this quick trip to the past. Any "predictions" can be described as unscientific, but kind of fun.

Disclaimer: Obviously caveats do apply here. These are namely the effects of other position groups, coaching, and style of offense on the players being analyzed. Also, the past probably has no bearing on what current players will do, unless you believe Rust Cohle. I plan to deal with these issues by completely ignoring them. It's the off season, people (but not for long).   The receiving core, much like the rest of Michigan's offense, struggled last season. The one guy that stuck out was Devin Funchess, who was underutilized and even when he was used it was for bubble screens, which, well, yeah. The rest of the receiving core Let's take a look at their stats, gathered from sports-reference.com. Here are their stats throughout the years they have been active.  

  Yr Rk Cls Player Rec Rec Yds Rec Avg Rec Td
0 2014 1 2 De'Veon Smith 3 26 8.7 0
1 2014 2 5 Devin Gardner 1 18 18.0 0
2 2014 3 2 Derrick Green 2 26 13.0 0
3 2014 4 3 Drake Johnson 1 11 11.0 0
4 2014 5 4 Justice Hayes 11 65 5.9 0
5 2014 6 3 Dennis Norfleet 15 111 7.4 0
6 2014 8 3 Joe Kerridge 6 53 8.8 0
7 2014 9 3 Devin Funchess 62 733 11.8 4
8 2014 11 1 Freddy Canteen 5 22 4.4 1
9 2014 12 2 Amara Darboh 36 473 13.1 2
10 2014 13 2 Jake Butt 21 211 10.0 2
11 2014 14 3 Jehu Chesson 14 154 11.0 0
12 2014 15 2 Khalid Hill 4 37 9.3 0
13 2014 16 3 A.J. Williams 4 33 8.3 0
14 2014 17 4 Keith Heitzman 2 32 16.0 1
15 2014 18 NaN Bo Dever 1 26 26.0 0
16 2014 19 NaN Da'Mario Jones 1 11 11.0 0

    Top performer Funchess has moved on to the greener pastures of the NFL. In addition, Gardner, Hayes, Norfleet, Heitzman, and Dever are off the squad due to a combination of graduation, transfers, and medical hardships. These players account for a decent number of last year's receptions - 48.7% to be exact. This leaves the 2015 team with what appears to e a very inexperienced receiving corp. But is this true? I'll look into the number of receptions each team since 1975 has returned.   figure_1   You can see here that the 2015 team will be returning receivers responsible for just under 100 receptions last year. This is roughly the same amount as we've seen each season since 2011. This year's roster doesn't seem to be all that depleted compared to 1995, 2007, or even last year (thanks in large part to Jeremy Gallon's departure). Percentages may be more helpful in exploring this type of information.   figure_2fix   The bars of this graph represent the returning group of receivers by percentage of receptions from last year. For instance, the receivers currently on roster made up about 50% of the receptions on the 2014 team. In this case, maize bars represent years similar to this year's team. Light blue bars are teams which returned a higher percentage of receptions, while dark blue represent teams which returned a lower percentage of receptions. The similar teams in this comparison are 1980, 1986, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2012. These teams were comprised of receivers responsible for near 50% of the receptions from the season before. Let's take a look at how the three most recent comparison teams fared after losing about half the production from the previous season.  

2005

The 2004 squad was loaded in general, but boasted an especially talented group of receivers. This year had it all: the burner in Steve Breaston, the reliable possession receiver in Jason Avant, and of course, the All-American and eventual 3rd overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, Braylon Edwards. Beyond them were tight ends Tim Massaquoi and Tyler Ecker. Running backs Mike Hart and Kevin Grady caught a few passes out of the backfield as well, contributing to a passing offense which was good for 248 receptions for a total of 2,795 yards. Braylon Edwards alone accounted for 97 receptions and 1,330 yards - about 41% of the receptions and just under 50% of the yards. Edwards and a few other contributors departed following the 2004 season, leaving a lot of receptions up for grabs.

  Yr Rk Cls Player Rec Rec Yds Rec Avg Rec Td
0 2005 14 4 Jason Avant 82 1007 12.3 8
1 2005 10 1 Mario Manningham 27 433 16 6
2 2005 8 4 Steve Breaston 26 291 11.2 2
3 2005 15 4 Tyler Ecker 21 285 13.6 2
4 2005 1 2 Michael Hart 16 154 9.6 1
5 2005 2 1 Kevin Grady 14 113 8.1 0
6 2005 12 4 Carl Tabb 12 96 8 0
7 2005 16 5 Tim Massaquoi 11 86 7.8 0
8 2005 7 1 Antonio Bass 8 64 8 0
9 2005 17 2 Mike Massey 8 51 6.4 2
10 2005 18 4 Brian Thompson 6 41 6.8 2
11 2005 19 2 Doug Dutch 4 34 8.5 0
12 2005 5 2 Max Martin 2 2 1 0
13 2005 6 4 Alijah Bradley 1 15 15 0
14       Total 238 2672 9.45 23

  The next season did not see a significant decrease in receptions or yards, coming in with just 10 fewer receptions and 123 less yards, a basically negligible decrease. Jason Avant stepped up in a big way, accounting for 44 more receptions and 560 more yards than his 2004 season. While Steve Breaston's production remained largely the same from his 2004 season, freshman Mario Manningham stepped in to become Michigan's second receiver in terms of receptions, yards, and TDs, and led the team in Yds/Catch with 16. Sophomore Chad Henne was the quarterback for the 2005 season, and he was pretty damn good.  

2006

One year later, Jason Avant left the ranks along with a few other contributors. As mentioned above, the 2005 team totaled 2,672 yards on 238 receptions, for an average of 9.45 yds/carry and 23 TDs. The 2006 receivers were led by Steve Breaston, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington, who returned from a season ending injury his sophomore year to have a very productive junior season.

  Yr Rk Cls Player Rec Rec Yds Rec Avg Rec Td
0 2006 7 5 Steve Breaston 58 670 11.6 2
1 2006 13 3 Adrian Arrington 40 544 13.6 8
2 2006 8 2 Mario Manningham 38 703 18.5 9
3 2006 14 2 Carson Butler 19 166 8.7 1
4 2006 1 3 Michael Hart 17 125 7.4 0
5 2006 15 5 Tyler Ecker 12 155 12.9 2
6 2006 16 3 Mike Massey 8 72 9 0
7 2006 17 1 Greg Mathews 7 68 9.7 0
8 2006 18 4 Obi Oluigbo 2 23 11.5 0
9 2006 2 2 Kevin Grady 1 8 8 0
10 2006 4 1 Brandon Minor 1 9 9 0
11 2006 12 5 Alijah Bradley 1 -5 -5 0
12 2006 19 5 Carl Tabb 1 2 2 0
13 2006 20 NaN Rueben Riley 1 -9 -9 0
14       Total 206 2531 7.707143 22

  The 2006 team did not fare quite as well as the 2005 squad, but still performed very well considering they again lost their leading receiver. In this case the emergence of Adrian Arrington was a huge help to the squad. He and Breaston combined to make up for Avant's departure, plus an extra couple yards and 2 TDs. Mario Manningham improved upon an already impressive Yds/Catch, jumping from 16 Yds to 18.5 despite having an extra 11 catches. Overall the 2006 squad had about 22 fewer catches, and 141 fewer yards. Not too bad for losing a great receiver like Avant. The receivers had a junior Chad Henne passing to them, who is almost definitely better than any QB on the current roster, something to consider.

2012

The 2012 team was coming off a solid 2011 campaign, with the receivers being led by Junior Hemingway, Jeremy Gallon, Kevin Koger, Roy Roundtree, and a number of other contributors. It was an interesting season in which no receiver had more than 35 receptions or 4 TDs receiving. Junior Hemingway posted a ludicrous 20.6 Yards/Catch. As a whole, the team had 155 receptions, 2377 reception yards, and 22 Rec TDs. Hemingway and Koger were the only departures going into the 2012 season.  

  Yr Rk Cls Player Rec Rec Yds Rec Avg Rec Td
0 2012 8 4 Jeremy Gallon 49 829 16.9 4
1 2012 12 4 Roy Roundtree 31 580 18.7 3
2 2012 10 3 Drew Dileo 20 331 16.6 2
3 2012 4 3 Devin Gardner 16 266 16.6 4
4 2012 13 1 Devin Funchess 15 234 15.6 5
5 2012 5 4 Vincent Smith 10 74 7.4 1
6 2012 2 4 Fitzgerald Toussaint 6 62 10.3 1
7 2012 14 2 Jerald Robinson 5 69 13.8 0
8 2012 15 4 Mike Kwiatkowski 4 37 9.3 0
9 2012 16 3 Jeremy Jackson 4 31 7.8 0
10 2012 1 4 Denard Robinson 3 31 10.3 0
11 2012 17 3 Joe Reynolds 3 22 7.3 0
12 2012 3 2 Thomas Rawls 1 6 6 0
13 2012 18 1 Joe Kerridge 1 12 12 0
14 2012 19 NaN Dylan Esterline 1 7 7 0
15       Total 169 2591 11.70667 20

  2012 saw a small increase in the passing game for Michigan. The receptions increased by 14, yards by 214. Jeremy Gallon stepped up to become the top receiver, and the Devins Gardner and Funchess pitched in, especially on the Yards front. The QB situation this year was less than ideal. In a move designed to maximize on field talent Devin Gardner played receiver for the first few games. Denard got injured, leaving an overmatched Russell Bellomy to take the reins in the most frustrating Michigan game I think I've ever seen. The next week Gardner took over QB duties and finished out the season there. Needless to say, the 2012 team's quarterback position was not a strong point.

Bottom Line

Michigan teams which had to replace roughly 50% of their production usually did so remarkably well. The 2005, 2006, and 2012 teams barely skipped a beat, even though they had to cover up the losses of Braylon Edwards, Jason Avant, and Junior Hemingway. In each of these cases, veteran receivers picked up some of the slack while new receivers including a freshman Mario Manningham and junior Greg Matthews made big impacts. Hopefully we'll be able to add the 2015 season to this category.

Losing Devin Funchess seems roughly on par with losing the three receivers mentioned above, and I wouldn't be surprised if we had a breakout receiver on the roster. Seniors Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson should pick up some of the slack, and between guys like Freddy Canteen and Drake Harris, Michigan should have a guy ready to step in and pick up the slack. Additionally, this year's team has a potential All Big Ten tight end in Jake Butt to ease any growing pains that switching to a Harbaugh offense might cause.

In sum, I'm not worried about the receivers. Replacing 50% of the production is not unheard of, and has generally worked out pretty well for Michigan in the past. We have enough talent on the roster to cover the loss of Funchess, and I'm excited to see which of our receivers step up to the challenge. The bigger issue may be whether or not the quarterbacks are able to deliver the ball. The 2005 and 2006 teams were lucky enough to have one of the best quarterbacks in recent Michigan history throwing to them. The 2012 team was not as lucky, although Gardner was not a terrible passer. That seems to be the best comparison for this year's team. Rudock and Morris will be serviceable passers, but expect the offense to go through the running game, just as the 2012 offense did.

If anyone is interested in using the data I've compiled you can get the QB data here and the RB/WR data here. As I mention at the beginning of these posts, the stats were gathered from sports reference. However, I also went through the names and added the class of most players to each entry.

Comments

Trebor

August 21st, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^

This post reminds me how ridiculous it is that we've never had a QB throw more than 25 TDs in a single season, and only once has someone cleared 3000 yards.

For comparison, 39 QBs threw for more than 3000 yards last year alone, 21 of which were in P5 conferences. 24 QBs threw for more than 25 TDs, 13 of them in P5. Yet, with all the talent we've had in the past at QB and WR/TE...

mgobaran

August 21st, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^

Sure, we need to replace the 50% lost from last year, but getting back to last years numbers shouldn't be a goal. 

If last year's numbers are the goal, here is what we need to replace:

78 receptions, 885 yards and 5 TDs. 

Last years offense sucked. So let's not go for that easily obtainable goal.

Now here are the numbers we need in addition to what we are bringing back to achieve 2005 and 2006 numbers.

2005:  127 receptions, 1,515 yards, and 18 TDs

2006:   95 receptions, 1,374 yards, and 17 TDs

Seeing how 2005/2006 were both years that we replaced 50% of the receiving numbers, and came back with similar numbers as the year before, those offenses would have had to replace numbers that look like the ones above.

100-120 receptions, 1,200-1,350 yards, and 11 TDs.

If we can have Darboh, Chesson, Butt, and some young WR's all contribute, the numbers to get our passing game back to what it was in the mid-2000's don't seem far fetched.

Expect a big jump in the passing game folks. You heard it here first.

 

TL;DR

Estimated Receiving Numbers for 2015:

210 Receptions for 2,400 yards and 15 TDs.**

**No joke, I just looked this up after writing this whole post. But Jake Rudock passed for 213 completions, 2,436 yards, and 16 TDs in 2014.

 

Michigan4Life

August 22nd, 2015 at 3:36 PM ^

with no proven WR who can show that they can produce on a consistent basis.

The biggest concern is their ability to separate from DBs coming off the break which is important or the QBs would have to try to throw into tight windows and hope the WRs come up with contested catches.  They don't have a true deep threat and one must emerge in order for the offense to function well IMO or the defense are just going to load up the box to stop the run.