Third Down Numbers and Other Stats

on 3rd down is absolutely killing us. We are rated 45th in the country in terms of pass efficiency defense, and 61st in the country in terms of completion percentage. That being said, we're 96th in the country in terms of overall passing yards allowed, that's a huge discrepancy, and while I don't have the numbers, I don't think it's a huge stretch to say that the huge passing gains allowed on 3rd down are responsible for that discrepancy. The stats below

http://www.thespread.com/index.php?option=com_statfeed&page=cfb/defstats...

http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/rankingSummary?year=2009&org=418

That was the Iowa game, not MSU.

Also, that play was on 2nd down.

The Yahoo drive log shows that "Brandon Moore" intercepted Stanzi...um, okay, Yahoo.

Edit: I think I figured out that first MSU 3-and-6. You mean Stevie Brown's interception of Cousins, no?

I think this problem in defending 3rd down (relative to the norm), particularly 3rd and long, has been a problem for Michigan for a number of years now.

I think this can be trace back to poor safety play and linebackers who have great difficulty in coverage. The approach often is to rush 3, maybe 4 and try to defend receivers with more guys.

But this approach only allows for Graham to be more easily neutralized. IME, if you have problems with your coverage guys, the solution should not be to have more of them on the field, but to ensure that there is pressure on the QB. Not a jailhouse, 7 guy rush; but at least 4-5 guys rushing the QB on every 3rd and 3 or more. Less time to throw (rather than more guys on the field, who if could cover, would already be on the field) will help minimize the coverage problems.

This has got to be bullet number one for the D this week. I do think we were more aggressive, I would hate to see Mich step it down to address this. Basically Williams and Kovacs (or the Safety of the moment) need to man up with Woolfolk at CB (though some of this bleeding is on Woolfolk as safety.)

As for the O ... pls don't go back to last year wrt turnovers.

Nice data driven diary. Thanks.

Thanks for crunching these numbers. There really isn't a lot of positive to glean from it, as it contains about 50% games against weaker opponents (certainly at least 1/3).

Giving up the big plays on a regular basis has been frustrating. Before the season, observers were noting how the offense was picking up big plays against the defense in practice. There were many who wondered if it was a positive for the O or a neg to the D. It seems to be a bit of both. Unfortunately, we've seen that carry over against opposition.

Teams attack both between the hashes and edge of the D successfully, which points to large issues like speed and football-driven playmakers.

I said this before, but it seems like for this season, the defense consists of a stout line, a good corner, and several thousand prayers before each snap that the other 6 can not be exploited. There is a lot of scheme gambling going on to try to stop opponents, since M generally isn't winning the one-on-one battles for those 6.

It's going to be an interesting season the rest of the way. It seems like Michigan is going to be a bit like Illinois of last year, where it has to find ways to outscore the Big Ten to get those wins. It's a very foreign place for Michigan to find itself, but critical that M gets it done to preserve recruiting momentum for the reloading underway.

I am not satisfied with 40% conversion rate for our offense, although I would like to see us get 70%. However, I am not unhappy with 40%. On defense, my instinct tells me we are better off on 3rd and short than in any other situation b/c it will most likely be a run. Defensively, the goal is to hold the opponent to 25% on 3rd down.

Having said all that, our conversion percentages aren't the main problem. Sorry about not being able to do a chart, but:

M 6/16 37.5% WMU 5/14 35.7%
M 5/14 35.7% ND 6/14 42.9%
M 5/11 45.5% EMU 8/19 42.1%
M 9/17 52.9% IU 3/15 20.0%
M 7/16 43.8% MSU 8/18 44.4%
M 3/11 27.3% UI 8/18 44.4%

As you can see, the 3rd down battle is key. Only in the ND game did we lose that battle and win the game, and I think we can all agree that if Jabba runs the ball late in the game on 2nd and 3rd down, we lose. Also note that despite being outgained by 95 yards and losing the turnover battle against Indiana, it was our ability to outplay Indiana on 3rd down that won us that game, particularly defensive stops in the red zone.

While we want to have good percentages in and of themselves, the real goal is to out-convert our opponents each game.

So I had a lot more written on this, but the preview button didn't work and all of my writing disappeared...

Anyway a few points.

1. Might as well throw the third and sevens in with this. It's essentially the same thing.

2. I think the biggest issue with this defense is talent and experience, not scheme. Last year was a fright of three man rushes and 15 yard cushions. Not to say that hasn't happened this year, but not at the rate it was (in my observation at least). I think this defensive scheme is a lot more solid and a lot more sensible than what they've run the last few years and I feel good that when the talent and experience are there, this will work out fine and be a strength of the team. The idea of having someone who half DB and half LB and another that is half LB and half DL is brilliant in my opinion and gives you the flexibilty to adjust to everything that offenses throw at you these days without getting caught running people in and out of the game.