Is this team still who we thought they would be?
After the Penn State and Illinois losses that is what I kept hearing from the uber-rational folks here. This team is exactly where we thought they would be prior to the unrealistically raised hopes of 4-0. Get to a bowl game and every thing is hunky-dory.
Well, Michigan has pissed away another game and has now lost five straight conference games (turnover = touchdown; onside kick = touchdown; missed extra point and field goal = loss). The defense gives up big play after big play while the offense can no longer be counted on to make the big play with the game on the line. This team finds a way to lose.
Can anyone really say victories over Wisconsin and Ohio State are possible at this point? Be rational, right?
So what is the Michigan fan supposed to think - in a clam and rational manner - if this team loses seven straight conference games, has a losing season, and misses out on a bowl game?
I am not advocating firing the coach and starting over. I do not think that is the answer. But what I would like to know is what all of these "calm down this is what we expected" folks think at this point.
Because I did not expect this team to compete for a Big Ten title or beat high caliber teams. But I sure as heck expected this team to not get crushed by Illinois and choke a game away against Purdue when they had a two touchdown lead at the half.
It seems likely to me that this team is going to have to improve just to be mediocre next year given the defense. And if the offensive line doesn't get substantially better how are we going to outscore everyone?
Maybe it is my fault for not realizing that Michigan would need three years to be competitive - not national but in the conference - again. Feels like this program is a lot farther behind than I thought.
Well, Michigan has pissed away another game and has now lost five straight conference games (turnover = touchdown; onside kick = touchdown; missed extra point and field goal = loss). The defense gives up big play after big play while the offense can no longer be counted on to make the big play with the game on the line. This team finds a way to lose.
Can anyone really say victories over Wisconsin and Ohio State are possible at this point? Be rational, right?
So what is the Michigan fan supposed to think - in a clam and rational manner - if this team loses seven straight conference games, has a losing season, and misses out on a bowl game?
I am not advocating firing the coach and starting over. I do not think that is the answer. But what I would like to know is what all of these "calm down this is what we expected" folks think at this point.
Because I did not expect this team to compete for a Big Ten title or beat high caliber teams. But I sure as heck expected this team to not get crushed by Illinois and choke a game away against Purdue when they had a two touchdown lead at the half.
It seems likely to me that this team is going to have to improve just to be mediocre next year given the defense. And if the offensive line doesn't get substantially better how are we going to outscore everyone?
Maybe it is my fault for not realizing that Michigan would need three years to be competitive - not national but in the conference - again. Feels like this program is a lot farther behind than I thought.
November 7th, 2009 at 3:51 PM ^
Dongpunch'd.
(Yes, I used this on another thread -- just consider this to be the proper response to every post until sometime around Monday.)
November 7th, 2009 at 3:52 PM ^
Really because last I checked NW just beat Iowa, OSU lost to Purdue and Wisconsin had all it could handle with Indiana.
Yeah we have no chance in hell let's just hang it up.
We score roughly 30 points a game and the defense sucks because of attrition. WHat the hell do you want Rich to do?
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/decimated-defense-part-ii-statisticating
November 7th, 2009 at 4:09 PM ^
We'll get beat by at least 10 in the next 2 games.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:12 PM ^
Future MichMike86 what are next weeks lottery numbers?
November 7th, 2009 at 4:24 PM ^
in the Les Miles thread, "please stop". If you're trying to be rational here then lets look at it that way. We haven't won a road game all year. We won 1 last year. You think we are really gonna go into Madison and beat a ranked Wisconsin team? You are wrong if you think that way. Ohio State? Really?
November 7th, 2009 at 4:10 PM ^
I never said we have no chance whatsoever against UW or OSU. I asked if anyone felt confident stating that we could beat them. Has there been any indication in the last six weeks that this team has the poise and confidence to do it? I don't see it.
Yes, we could play our best games of the season and beat those two teams. But the defense gives up points at an alarming rate and the offense, despite scoring points, seems to have miscues when the game is on the line.
As someone else said, I think we have a better chance beating OSU because Pryor seems to go ice cold at times. But that Ohio State defense could also give our offense a great deal of trouble.
I guess we will just have to wait and see.
November 7th, 2009 at 5:52 PM ^
"Can anyone really say victories over Wisconsin and Ohio State are possible at this point?"
vs.
"I never said we have no chance whatsoever against UW or OSU."
Reading is fundamental.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:09 PM ^
I would submit that phrasing it as a question is less than a flat out statement that we can't win those games, but that's semantics. So that's my mistake.
I didn't mean to say that winning was impossible just that it is hard to look at our play the last five games and see us winning.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:02 PM ^
I think that so many of our problems come from being young, a lack of talent and not having a vocal leader. There is no way that before the season started anyone would guess that Kovacs would be a starter for the University of Michigan. This is not a shot at Kovacs in anyway, he does an admirable job but he just doesn't seem like he is a D-1 athlete so when he makes mistakes that some players could overcome with their athletic ability, he gets burned. Also, Mike Williams, although projected as a starter has struggled mightily. I think that some of his issues have to be blamed on the coaches but he has to take some accountability as well. When you are playing with 2 sub par safeties your entire defense will struggle. We cannot play as aggressive as GRob would like us too because we cannot bank on having a solid safety to stop the big play. It also seems like there is no vocal leader on the defense. In his interviews BG has stated that being a leader is not his natural role, but that he has worked at it because he knows the team needs one. Maybe this is why it seems like UM suffers with "momentum" shifts in game. Anyway, I definitely think that the coaches have to take responsibility for the way this team has played but their definitely have been tough circumstances for this team to overcome on the defensive side of the ball.
November 7th, 2009 at 7:39 PM ^
permanent captains they'd have leaders on the field.....
November 7th, 2009 at 3:55 PM ^
Our defense has been terrible (save for 1 or 2 teams) for the better part of a decade.
The streak continues...
November 7th, 2009 at 5:41 PM ^
The defense hasn't been dominant for a long time, but the last two years have been unprecedented levels of suck.
November 7th, 2009 at 3:59 PM ^
But what I would like to know is what all of these "calm down this is what we expected" folks think at this point.
Have a tiny shred of patience. Yes, last year sucked. Yes, this year sucks now. Once we get to a point where we aren't remaking the entire offensive line mid-season, where we've had some time to fix our depth problems - which we obviously can't do mid-season - and for the freshmen and redshirted players to have another offseason to develop, things should hopefully be better next year.
But I sure as heck expected this team to not get crushed by Illinois and choke a game away against Purdue when they had a two touchdown lead at the half.
This is the Purdue team that beat Ohio State, and the Illinois team that has Juice Williams, who has a knack for ripping our defense to shreds. I don't think either of the losses should have been gigantic shocks.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:11 PM ^
I thought his post resonated patience at the very least. I don't think Rich Rod can fix our depth problems on defense before the atmosphere around him and the program becomes toxic. I want Rich to succeed but this is a very bad situation for him. Michigan fans just aren't used to this kind of suck. Maybe it will be good for us to eat some humble pie for a change but it certainly isn't good for Rich Rod's chances of staying our coach.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:33 PM ^
You're right; the frustration on my part stems from the general atmosphere here right now.
Sadly, I also agree with the rest of your post. Rodriguez will succeed if we don't run him out of town, but I'm more and more afraid it'll happen with each loss.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:14 PM ^
I have watched every single game this year. But here is the rub: "things should hopefully be better next year." I hope so too. But hoping is a thin read these days.
If I knew, or had solid reasons to be confident, that the defense wasn't going to be the same or worse and that the O-line would improve I would feel better. But I don't have any reason to do so.
Yes, I think the skill players on offense will be better after a year of playing but I fear this means we will just lose high scoring games.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:32 PM ^
If I knew, or had solid reasons to be confident, that the defense wasn't going to be the same or worse and that the O-line would improve I would feel better. But I don't have any reason to do so.
I'll admit I don't really have much of a factual basis to be optimistic. It's just better than the alternative of becoming the otter of ennui.
Rodriguez has done well with recruiting in the past, and from the players they've been looking at it seems like he and the staff know what needs to be fixed, and who they'd like to use to fill those holes. The process of getting there has been and will be painful, but I'd like to think that Rodriguez's track record before Michigan says more about his abilities than his almost two years with a horribly depleted, underdeveloped talent base to work with.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:01 PM ^
I thought we'd be further along, too. I get that we're really short on players and didn't expect more than looking generally more competitive against the big boys and beating the small fry again. Sucks to still be having mental lapses and emotional collapses and total team fail, but them's the breaks.
Rodriguez absolutely needs to have a team that is solid fundamentally next year. If we must have a talent gap, then so be it. But a discipline and focus gap, that is something that is correctable. We've got to give him more time to see if that that "Hard Edge' will ever re-materialize.
As a fan, I hope they pull this thing together.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:15 PM ^
They're about right where I thought they would be. The offense is better than where it was last year and that's with a true freshman QB running it. The defense has been the issue this year. If we had any semblance of a defense they would have at least a couple more wins and we'd all be feeling much better.
As the year has progressed, however, I've been sobering up on Tate a little bit. He's a very serviceable QB for this offense, but I'm not sure that he is the answer for us. He's a little slow on his feet and his arm strength could stand to be better (don't know if his shoulder is affecting this any).
I have trouble seeing how getting some good defensive recruits are going to help us in the short term. It's going to be on the guys getting PT right now to get better and step up next year. If they don't we may be in for the same next year.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:05 PM ^
Next year is looking poor. The defense had a few glimmers of hope at linebacker I thought as Fitz and Leach both looked better than those they replaced. But let's be serious about our chances of improvement.
This offense is already very dangerous and can't make up for the terrible defense. Next season we will probably see a drop-off in the effectiveness of the D-Line without BG, a drop-off in our ability to cover (if that is possible, my brain won't let me imagine such horrors) with Warren probably going pro, hopefully slightly better linebacker play though we lose Stevie Brown, and the safties... don't even go there. Too much pain there.
So maybe Tate and Denard can take the offense to another level but the defense looks to fall off a cliff. There shouldn't even be a cliff there but somehow I suspect there is. No matter how great the offense manages to be, I don't see us winning more than around 6-7 games next year. And with how this season is rounding out, three straight losing seasons is a very real possibility.
Gag.
I don't see any way out of this mess. If we make no bowl game recruiting is going to take a major hit as well. I just can't believe how quickly this program went from being on the rise to being on the ropes. Somebody pinch me, I need to wake up from this nightmare.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:03 PM ^
I haven't seen much out of him at all the last 3-4 games. As a point of reference, if you consider that players of the caliber of Ty Law and Marlin Jackson weren't selected until the late 20's of the first round, I don't see any way that D. Warren goes in the first round. Would he leave just to be a second or third round pick?
November 7th, 2009 at 4:08 PM ^
The offense has been decent considering that the QB is a true freshman. You write that they don't always make the big play when the game is on the line, but even the best offenses don't do that. They move the ball far better than they did last year.
The defense has been worse than expected, but for the expected reasons. The new safeties have been totally inadequate and the linebackers have not improved. Unfortunately, we don't have a lot of options at those positions.
Basically, we're bad because a lot of areas that looked like potential problems before the season have been big problems.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:18 PM ^
with just a few more decent secondary players, Michigan would bet getting a passing grade and finish 7-5 easily this year.
I say this with confidence despite the black hole that is the Michigan LB corps.
There was offensive regression also, and the excuse has been injuries (Molk, Minor, Brown).
I was wrong to think the team would steadily improve as the season progressed in 2009. I thought the same back in 2008.
It never works out that way.
As far as 2010 goes, Michigan lost only two games decisively this year (Penn State and Illinois). The rest were close wins or close losses. That's typically a very good sign when your team is very young.
Michigan is an incredibly young and undermanned football team. There will be a lot of players coming back next year on both sides of the ball.
If Michigan goes 5-7, which it looks like they will, it'll be interesting to see how recruiting finishes up in February.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:20 PM ^
First, apologies for noticing your typo. It was the only amusing thing to happen today.
This is a bad team. No question about it. Good teams have bad games, and bad teams pull together a few good games. We've pulled together a few good games, but regressed toward the team's mean ability and talent level in the rest. Thus, we are probably headed toward 5-7.
I would like to believe we are better than last year, and I think the offense is, but the offense is only 1/3 of the team and the game. The other 2/3 does not look much improved. The defense just plain sucks, and Zoltan the Magnificent is the only bright spot on special teams.
My heart would like to believe that we can beat Wisconsin or Ohio State. But, my calm, rational mind looks at this team and says, "When pigs fly."
What worries me more than the rest of this year, is next season. Us, calm, rational types maintained (at one time) that by 2010, the team will have more experience, be more comfortable with the system, and possibly be challenging for a B10 title.
Take a look at the roster on defense and tell me that's realistic. Does anyone really believe that Kevin Leach, Ryan Van Bergen, and Jonas Mouton are going to be significantly better next year? At best, we're looking at a year in which the offense had better score a shit-load of points, because the defense won't be able to stop a skateboard with square wheels.
During his WTKA appearance on Monday, Brian talked about next year's defense, and how there is just not that much to get excited about. There won't be any much more depth that what we see right now, and much of the starting unit (BG notwithstanding) will be the same folks. Probably the same leaky sieve we have now, and possibly worse, if it can be believed.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:24 PM ^
How has the ST not improved? We've returned kicks for touchdowns, we've blocked punts, we are muffing less punts, and our punting game is one of the best in the nation.
How is that not progression? And the defense is exactly where we thought it would be.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:32 PM ^
I refer specifically to our inability to hang onto the damned ball in fielding punts. Even Zoltan has had his moments, (MSU, last week). And today, the interference call on Purdue was a gift to UM. He fumbled the ball purely on his own. The replay showed no contact with him.
I'll grant you that ST have had some good moments. But, net-net, we're about the same as last year.
November 8th, 2009 at 12:06 PM ^
I don't think there was a resounding majority opinion that the defense would unseat last year's D as the worst in Michigan history.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:24 PM ^
Well, clearly, not at all.
There are some big questions ahead:
-Can we salvage the season by picking up a win over these last two games?
-If the defense next year looks just as bad as it does this year, what will Rodriguez do?
-Will Bouje continue to yell at anyone that doesn't shower praise on Rodriguez?
-What is the realistic win count next year before we can say Rodriguez is safe?
Who is hired as AD is probably the biggest question of all though. If Brandon gets hired, and Rodriguez has a less than stellar season next year, I don't think we can expect to have him back.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:31 PM ^
No. This is not a Dennis Green moment. They are worse than what we thought they would be. Toss away the Del State win which was meaningless and you are looking at the true state of the Michigan program.
November 7th, 2009 at 11:19 PM ^
"They are who we thought they were" does not only apply to the record.
Did most people pick UM at 6-6 or 5-7 preseason? Probably. However, it's the stuff behind the numbers that matters.
I expected them to lose to ND and beat Illinois. Same record going into the Purdue game, but, less insanely high expectations for this young team. Being 5-4 with a loss to ND and a win at Illinois changes the culture for the fan base. We lose to teams with great players (ND) and beat the teams we're supposed to beat (UI). 5-4 like that makes much more sense and we're not seeing all these folks after another close loss (Purdue) with a healthy need to be talked off the ledge. In fact, I'd imagine that the general topic of these diaries would be how Michigan is young, competitive, talented (on offense) and a few defensive players and a little experience away from getting back to being a powerhouse in the conference and perhaps nationally again.
4 - 0 coupled with Forcier, Matthews, et al making great plays at perfect times blew the expectations completely out of the water for this team.
In the immortal words of George Carlin, "Calm down and have some dip."
Go Blue!
November 7th, 2009 at 4:34 PM ^
-Can we salvage the season by picking up a win over these last two games?
Yes, but at the same time I don't know how realistic this really is.
-If the defense next year looks just as bad as it does this year, what will Rodriguez do?
Rodriguez will pack his bags because there's a good chance that he'll be gone. Sorry.
-Will Bouje continue to yell at anyone that doesn't shower praise on Rodriguez?
We'll see.
-What is the realistic win count next year before we can say Rodriguez is safe?
7-6 minimum. Going 6-6 and getting beat by Akron at the Pizza Pizza Bowl won't cut it.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:38 PM ^
Somehow we did manage to prevail against Notre Dame. We were in that one to the end. And then we stopped improving week by week. I don't know why. BTW, I have tried having clam thoughts but lose interest after several minutes. There are only so many repetitions of "filter feed...must...filter feed" I can endure. Perhaps I can get back into clam thinking when it's time to reproduce. Or not.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:40 PM ^
What do you want the "rational" people to say? Losing sucks. I'm not happy about it - nobody is. But what the fucking alternative? Rabble on a fucking message? Express my EXTREME DISAPPOITMENT in tiny little pixels? Jesus - the best thing that can happen is that Rodriguez succeeds. As a fan, I'm going to root for that, rather than play some stupid-ass game of one up-manship so you can claim some sort of bizarre satisfaction in seeing "the reasonable people" eat their hat. You people can sit here and speculate what future W/L records gets the man canned, but I'd rather shoot a nail gun through my scrotum. We're 5-5. I'm going to cheer for them next weekend. That's all I know.
November 7th, 2009 at 4:44 PM ^
their hat" want RR to fail so that they will be right.
I want to win and I will continue to cheer on the team and think that they can beat them because if the Big Ten has proven anything this year it's that every team can lose on any given day. We've had:
OSU losing to Purdue
Wisconsin almost losing to Indiana
Iowa losing to NW
Every game this year in the Big Ten is winnable and to act like "oh we have no chance" is a piss poor analysis.
Good post chitown
November 7th, 2009 at 4:48 PM ^
Seriously, what crawled up your ass and died? You've been nothing but an unmitigated schmuck to just about everyone that doesn't agree with everything you state. This is a blog. People are going to be pissed after losses and talk about the future. If you don't like it, you can go back to your little blog and try to do what BHGP does, but with less funny results.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:02 PM ^
"play some stupid-ass game of one up-manship so you can claim some sort of bizarre satisfaction in seeing "the reasonable people" eat their hat."
that perfectly sums up what's actually going on with the OP. ctb happens to be good at that. if there weren't so much stupid shit on this board, he'd have to use that talent less. personally, i'd prefer the right people be assholes so as to encourage the shitty people to stop posting. kevin whateverhislastberrynameis posts diaries on a regular basis dressed up in pretty english that say absolutely nothing of value. ideally he'd leave forever. in the very least, he needs to stop posting diaries.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:21 PM ^
Oh, are you trying to get a date with the brats at the WLA? Chitown Blue and the rest of those brats are hypocrites. Oh yeah, we would NEVER snipe on a message board.
Oh , no, we'll just start our own irrational, bratty blog and rip all those who question the Genius of The Mighty Godriguez and act like we know all--and of course, get all snobby and rant at people who of all things, post things we disagree with, those little fucks!.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:52 PM ^
the Communist bit is an act, friend.
November 7th, 2009 at 7:05 PM ^
I'm not really referring to his thoughts about the OP. This is what came out of it and struck me:
"You people can sit here and speculate what future W/L records gets the man canned, but I'd rather shoot a nail gun through my scrotum. We're 5-5. I'm going to cheer for them next weekend. That's all I know."
It's this weak attempt to think that, because those that offer unwavering/unquestioning support to Rodriguez currently enjoy more momentum on this blog, those that do question Rodriguez are, without a doubt, wrong. I fall a lot closer to the support camp, but some "supporters" are being, quite frankly, idiots. Since the very inception of the internet, controversy has been the name of the game. Expecting others to not post their dismay after a frustrating loss is ridiculously naive.
November 7th, 2009 at 8:50 PM ^
Aside from that, if he was expecting others not to post their dismay he wouldn't have had to make a post. The idea is to get people to drink their sorrows away without touching a keyboard.
November 7th, 2009 at 10:35 PM ^
"The idea is to get people to drink their sorrows away without touching a keyboard."
People posting things on the internet after drinking? Or just posting stupid shit? I've never seen that before.
But I'll give Chitown credit, he's definitely starting in the right place to get people to stop getting drunk and posting. According to google, there are 83,500 hits related to the exact phrase "posting drunk," so he may need some time after this.
November 8th, 2009 at 3:41 AM ^
let's make mgoblog the fucking /b/ of college football. n00dz plz.
November 8th, 2009 at 3:33 PM ^
Tits or gtfo.
November 7th, 2009 at 5:06 PM ^
Decidedly un-clam but I concur. I now better appreciate Brian's decision to limit or suspend posts at times. We're like bowlers who, once the ball is on the lane, flail their hands in one direction or other to put spiritual english on the rolling ball. Just accept the gutter ball and look forward to the next set. -Blueto
November 7th, 2009 at 6:14 PM ^
1) I will cheer for this team and watch every game no matter how ugly it gets. I saw the once dominant Pittsburgh Steelers struggle for years before winning a Super Bowl, I will be a Michigan fan no matter how bad it gets or for how long.
2) I have repeatedly said I don't want the coach fired nor do I think that is the answer.
3) What I wanted to know is whether the folks who continually told us not to panic feel like panicking yet. To me this team feels much closer to last years team in terms of poise and finding ways to lose - despite the better offense - than I would have hoped.
And it doesn't seem obvious to me that we will make huge strides next year.
November 7th, 2009 at 5:02 PM ^
Times like this make me wish my Michigan diploma was shipped with a complementary bottle of Maker's Mark this summer.
November 7th, 2009 at 5:20 PM ^
This is not my beautiful house!
This is not my beautiful wife!
November 7th, 2009 at 6:07 PM ^
true freshman quarterbacks and 4 walk-on equivalents on defense? Is that something that changed? What changes is how easily we're able to resolve those facts with our desire to think positively about the team.
November 7th, 2009 at 6:15 PM ^
I thought The Mighty Godriguez could win with INFERIOR TALENT?!
I though The Mighty Godriguez didn't give a fuck about starz and shit--his system just WORKS!
Man, enough excuse making for this guy. The program is in complete disarray. Remember when UM was 4-0? Well, la-de-frickin'-da--The MNighty Godriguez was THE coach and the players were finally listening to this staff! WOWIE!
Now, the excuses roll out and we need to be patient. Ha! Right--and now we are a joke.
And if there isn't much hope for the defense (not to mention the offense) next year--then this WAS a mistake!!!
Here's something interesting: I was listening to the game on XM radio, to the Purdue feed (Brandy and Beckman? I'd rather eat a big pile of poop, thank you). After the game a Purdue offensive lineman was interviewed and asked about his belief that Purdue would move the ball on UM in the second half.
His reply (paraphrased): We felt they were small and light [on defense] and we could just push them out of our way and we were right. They were too easy to move off the ball.
Also, the Purdue announcers were wondering why Rodriguez was taking time outs with four minutes to go, Purdue pinned deep in their own zone, and punting into the wind. Well, I was too.
Yada yada, give The Mighty Godriguez another year--I agree with that sentiment (sediment?LOLZ--TOo soon?). But if this team looks half as shitty next year, wow, it's time for TMG to go, go, go.
And don't call for assistant coaches to be fired. Who the fuck is gonna come here to replace anyone if they don't know whether they'll be back in 2011? Tough call.
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