Summer Time Defense Depth Chart
With June days away, and the board under constant Nike v Adidas attack, thought I'd steal some Mr. Yost thunder and do a 2 deep for the defense for 2015. I was going to do this for the offense but as I looked over the RB, WR, and even OL positions it is really in constant flux - any number of guys could be starters or backups and even positions on the OL are not set in stone. So it's way more guesswork.
Unlike Mr. Yost who does this as a data set I'll add some thoughts and comments.
Defensive Ends:
- SDE: Charlton OR Wormley / Charlton OR Wormley
- WDE: Ojemudia / Marshall
Other contributors (i.e. 3 deep): Godin, Hurst (?), Jenkins-Stone, Poggi**
Freshmen: Johnson, Jones
Lost in the Weeds: Strobel
Views: Of the 5 position groups on defense the DEs have the most variability and question marks. Depth is an issue - any injury could cause havoc. Or cause the team to go heavily to a 3-4 system.
Ojemudia played decently in spots last year but this will be the first time starting. Charlton is already a JR - he is one of those guys who you wonder if he is a great athlete or a great football player. One hopes he turns into the latter in the next 2 years. For now he has the "potential" label. Wormley intrigues me as he is a guy who can flex out to SDE and in a 3 man front could be an end. I see him as potentially being more impactful than Charlton but that's just an uninformed guess - he does seem to make splash plays and will be 2 years removed from his ACL this year. He could also play inside but I think the depth chart says we need him outside next year. If he breaks out, a lot of concerns for the DEs could go away.
From there the dropoff in experience is vast. Marshall is a projected backup WDE but right now that is based on no one else on the depth chart. He did make a splash play or two in the spring game but... it's a spring game. Godin is a plugger at the WDE and could also play inside at 287 lbs. Then you have a few not perfect fits - Hurst is more of a DT but with his "quick first step" and weight (281) he could play as a DE in a pinch. Jenkins-Stone was a highly ranked LB out of HS who has done next to nothing in his time at UM other than in spring apparently where he is always hyped as doing well. Then fall comes and he disappears. I don't expect much from him but at 240 lbs he would seem to be the 3rd WDE. Speaking of disappearing 4 star Strobel is a guy most fans probably don't even remember at this point.
**They seemingly have shipped Poggi to TE but in theory - in case of injuries - he could flip back to WDE.
UM recruited 2 freshmen in 2015 but it would seem - barring a lot of injuries - neither is going to be playing in 2015 at their current projected weights. Each could use 15+ lbs (i.e. a redshirt year).
Defensive Tackles:
- NT: Glasgow / Mone
- DT: Henry / Wormley / Hurst
Other contributors (i.e. 3 deep): Godin
Freshmen: None
Medical?: Pipkins
Views: Having a strong 2 deep at the DT is a nice luxury for the 2015 team. There should not be much drop off from starters to backups. In fact if Mone and Wormley were starting at Utah over Glasgow and Henry you wouldn't bat an eye really. You'll notice Wormley here along with Hurst - these are probably their more natural positions but in a 3-4 they could be your ends (along with a Charlton type). Heck Henry might be an end in a 3-4. It will be interestng to see how it plays out.
Henry is tantalizing - he is talked up by the staff and does some very good things on the field. Then sometimes he doesn't. Have to remember he was only a RS SO last year - the next 2 years should be very good for him and the no nonsense staff should help any potential attitude issues (i.e. drive). Glasgow is a 297 lb NT - that's tough but (cliche time) you can't measure heart! He is not going to get you much in pass rush but seems like a very good run stopper. Mone makes hearts flutter and performed much better than Pipkins in these sets of eyes in their respective freshman years. The FR to SO leap for an interior linemen should make him a serious contributer this year and in the 320s he is a mountain of a man.
Wormley has proven pass rush capabilities from the inside and Hurst - again a young guy that it seems like we've been hearing good stuff on from practice reports for a few years - seems like he is ready to take a step as a contributor much like a Bolden did a year ago in the LBs. This sets up a lot of flexibility in pass rush options as you could have a big stout but still pretty effective pass rush group of say Charlton, Henry, Hurst, Wormley. Whatever the case the DTs have talent, depth, and lots of competition among talented players which should drive the group.
I've assumed with so much fire around his name, Pipkins will have be a medical...
Linebackers:
- SAM: Ross / Jenkins-Stone
- MIKE: Morgan / Gedeon
- WILL: Bolden / Gedeon
Other contributors (i.e. 3 deep): Gant, McCray, Furbush, Wangler
Freshmen: None
This is a solid workmanlike group but it seems to lack elite playmaking. I'd also argue it lacks depth. And it gets downright scary in 2016 when all 3 projected starters graduate. (UM might take 2 grad transfers here in 2016 the way this depth chart looks!!)
Bolden seems like the most sure thing as a starter after he and Jake Ryan combined for an enormous amount of playing time last year. UM played a ton of 2 LB sets, essentially erasing the SAM position for large portions of games and going with a nickel. Morgan is a presumed starter at the MIKE but I hold out hope Gedeon is seriously going to push there. He is another tantalizing guy that we've seen splashes of to get our interest up but not over a sustained period of time. At the SAM, Ross is a mystery - a 2 year starter he entered 2014 expected to continue to be an undersized fast LB - but disappeared for much of the first half of the year it seemed like. One hopes he re-emerges this year - his size hurts him but with a guy like this if you can keep him clean he is one of the few guys in the LB core with serious speed. His backup is RJS but again see notes above - guy has been a disappearing act for 3 years so I am not counting on him. I really would have liked to see Dymonte Thomas bulk up to 210-215 lbs and take a swipe at SAM in his remaining 2 years at UM.
The backups are worrisome and injuries to this unit could be a big issue. Not recruiting an impact LB this class hurt as he could have been someone who was part of the 2 deep, especially at that SAM position. And it will hurt even more in 2016 when this team is probably going to be running out multiple freshmen on the 2 deep. With Winovich switched to TE (head scratcher to me) and Ferns transferring all you are left at from the 2014 class is often injured Furbush and Wangler. Can either help this year? They will have to in 2016. McCray is a MIKE type who has yet to really make any impact on the football team (was injured this spring) and Gant is a lightly regarded SAMish type. Again the worry is depth here - once you get past LB #4 (Gedeon) you open up a lot of question marks. The starting unit should be "solid" but it would be nice to really develop LBs other teams have to game plan for.
Safeties:
- FS: Peppers / Thomas or Kinnel
- SS: Wilson / Hill
Other contributors (i.e. 3 deep): Clark
Freshmen: Kinnel
The much hyped Peppers joins Wilson at the safety position. If Dymonte Thomas had developed as projected out of HS (or Hoke didnt stop recruiting wonderkid Montae Nicholson - grrrr), one wonders how dynamic a corner tandem of Peppers and Lewis could have been but that is not our situation. So Peppers takes over and is joined by a solid if unspectacular Wilson. There will be a learning curve for Peppers and a busted assignment here or there but one hopes the football IQ and pure athleticism helps hide that, especially by the time the conf season rolls around.
Thomas and Clark are sort of ... well meh for now. Clark played nicely vs App State and you have sugar plum dreams of a 6'4 safety but that was App State. When real competition rolled in Clark did not look good. Dymonte Thomas is a worry as a guy who will never reach his potential - this year should be a make or break year as he is already a JR and if he doesnt make an impact this year, your only hope is a Will Campbell SR yr miracle.
The 2 that intrigue me are Hill and Kinnel. Hill had a rough 2014 with all the injuries - he had supposedly won the starting spot across from Wilson and then promptly was hurt. He returned later in the year, but getting trucked by Connor Cook was a testament to the type of season it was. He still seems like someone who has good potential and a good year for him would help alleviate worries about the 2016 SS position. As for Kinnel, I am for some reason buying this kid's hype. He has great size at already 205 and is one of the guys I could see losing his redshirt with the inevitable injuries every team has in the secondary.
In nickel defenses one assumes Peppers moves over to nickel and Hill and Wilson are your traditional safeties. Unless Dymonte Thomas has a break through and can figure out nickel.
There is also a wildcard here with a guy like Moncrief from Auburn but he was a backup beat out regularly by other, younger players and frankly a prospect like Hill seems more interesting. But maybe he provides injury insurance if he were to arrive.
Cornerbacks:
- CB: Lewis / Douglas
- SS: Lyons OR Watson OR Stribling
Other contributors (i.e. 3 deep): Dawson
Lost in the weeds: Richardson
Freshmen: Washington
I am expecting great things out of Lewis. It might not show up in the stat sheet if teams avoid him. Barring injury I don't see a reason to ever take him out of the game - the drop off between him and anyone else is vast, especially Douglass/Dawson types.
At the other corner the loss of Countess hurts. He wasn't a great player but he was needed depth. Lyons is an ok player (see my diary on him here) but not a world beater - that said Pac 12 QBs crush Big 10 QBs with the exception of OSU, MSU and most years of late Indiana. So he will have an easier job in the Big 10 facing Minnesota and Rutgers type offenses (err, excluding SuperGaryNova). But my hope is Brandon Watson beats him out. Watson looked great in the spring game but ... sigh... it was against our QBs and WRs. He has good size and if he beats out a veteran in Lyons it would be a lot like if Morris beats out Rudock - it would give you a nice floor as a backup and mean very good things for the new starter. Stribling is also there and unfortunately had a rough SO campaign. I thought he would show up last fall up 15 lbs heavier and ready to build on the very understandable mistakes of an unheralded FR CB. Instead he seemed marginalized even further by the coaching staff. And then this year shows up for spring at almost the exact same weight - again. Frustrating. 6'2 195 lb Stribling seems far better suited for Big 10 play than 6'2 178 lb Stribling. He is still a wildcard and I hope the new staff does more with him as he seemed interesting as a freshman.
Douglas and Dawson are not people I feel comfortable rolling out as contributors at this point. Hopefully they can contribute something. Terry Richardson falls into the Strobel camp - a 4 star recruit who has had zero real impact on football Saturdays - and at this point you can't really count on to contribute. Also I don't expect Washington to see the light of day - he looks like a player who really needs a RS year both from size and learning this position.
Overall:
While Michigan's NCAA defensive rank was pretty decent all that does is rank teams by average yards given up per game. And that gives a major advantage to every Big 10 defense as the offenses - save for a few - have been anywhere from pedestrian to poor by and large for years. Advanced stats showed a Michigan defense which ranked around 40ish in the country and 6th to 8th in the Big 10 last year. That felt about right - and that was disappointing considering the defense was expected to be top 3 going into 2014. Even the things the team did right (rush defense) let the team down when needed (Minnesota). It wasn't a bad defense but it wasn't as good as it looked on paper. The end of 1st half implosions also caused us to pull out our hair.
While the NFL losses are significant (specifically Ryan and Clark) better position coaching should help as will any reversion to mean in the turnovers caused which was abysmal in 2014. The entire team had 5 INTs last year; multiple DBs on other Big 10 teams had more than our entire team. Fumbles caused was also pathetic. Just adding 8 more TOs a year by this unit - which would just be a "normal" year, should help change the field and make the defense "feel" better. I dont buy the "defense was on the field too long" argument at all for last year's failures - Michigan not only had the ball over 30 minutes a game on offense they also played at a very slow pace in real time terms. Lack of dynamic playmakers and ability to flip the field hurt more.
The 2015 defense should also be interesting in terms of formations - while others have said the type of "3-4" Durkin runs won't be a sea change the position flexibility of a few players on the DL (Charlton, Wormley, Henry, Hurst) should make for interesting post game analysis. The obvious strength are the DTs with a potential pair of top end DBs - Peppers still needs to prove it on the field vs non MAC competition. LBs seem solid if not game changers. Finding solutions at the 2nd CB and DEs are the key - pressuring the QB is probably going to be the #1 issue for this defense. #2 will be depth at various positions - while one feels comfortable with the starters at most spots, the backups are either unproven or proven to be a significant step down, esp in the back 7. So when injuries do hit - can we get servicable production from the next guy on the totem pole?
I hope something positive comes from Dymonte's time on campus. He did have a great punt block against CMU his freshman season but aside from that, he hasn't done much. Hopefully he can make the most of it.
Yep definitely remember that and thinking "well that's a great sign from a young stud". He then disappeared for the rest of the year. If he can't figure out playing in space - which seems to be his issue - I would, as I wrote above, pack on 20 lbs on him and return him to his HS position and have him be an OLB on 3rd down passing sets.
If he had turned out to the level of his recruitment level we'd have a DB of 3 potential studs (Lewis, Thomas, Peppers) married to a solid SR in Wilson and it would be a hell of a safety net. I know we do love Peppers as a run killer from the S spot and that's probably where his NFL future lies but if you have 2 erasers at CB ...well it's just a rare thing. This would assume of course Peppers is an eraser @ CB - we don't know that.
What's strange with Thomas is you hear more hype from guys like Royce Jenkins Stone every spring than you do with Thomas. And RJS is not a guy who really contributes in the fall. Not that buzz is everything - its hit or miss i.e. Bolden v Canteen - but it seemed like another quiet year for him this spring. People seemed more excited about Hill.
I kind of wonder what he could do at WR.
Seems reasonable. I'm getting killed in another thread for saying the same thing, but not nearly as well. Only thing to add here (hot take alert) I can't shake the feeling that if we go press that we see a bit of Peppers at CB before the year is out.
Ross - I know he gets dinged some for his size but I remember a couple of plays last year where he absolutely clocked the olineman. So much so that while Ross wasn't credited for the tackles, his aggresiveness and success in taking on the block completely blew up the play. (yeah, two plays is very small sample size but it shows the potential is there??)
I'll be very surprised if he stays on offense. They needed to move someone to TE for the spring due to injuries.
I think Taco is going to be the starter at WDE with Wormley starting at SDE. Marshall has gotten a lot of buzz but may not be able to hold up to the run. Could see Wormley sliding inside on passing downs to bring in Marshall.
In recent years, the problem for Michigan with supposedly undersized guys like that is that Mich just couldn't figure out how to use them properly. While our staff insisted on more size at DE and LB, Gregory and Denicos Allen were tearing up the league.
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Randy Gregory played lighter than his listed weight at 218. Vic Beasley who was one of the best pass rusher in the country played at 230 lbs.
But the obsession with size over speed that came from Hoke's staff may remain in effect because of Mattison. I'm sure he had a lot to do with it.
It'll be interesting to see if it changes under Durkin and Harbaugh. We certainly had some missed opportunities with Furman, Thomas and others.
If you are just a pass rusher you can honestly play at whatver weight gets you around the edge. As you said, Gregory was successful at about 220 lbs. That being said Gregory was a liability when teams ran at him. It doesn't take much for a team to say "wow, that DE looks severely malnourished and takes run plays off! Let's run our corn-fed, B1G left tackle down his throat."
I think that is the concern of most in regards to Marshall or RJS's durability
you can live with him being a liability against the run because pass rush trumps run defense especially with so many teams running spread offense.
Little late getting to this, but good work as always alum96. It will be interesting to see if an improvement in causing turnovers or short yardage defense takes place under the new staff.
Your post linked to in your signature has been very interesting as well. There are big losses after this year coming to the linebackers and it will be interesting to see how the staff this year lays the groundwork for the coming seasons. I have a ton of confidence in the primary tandem of Durkin and Mattison, but you're right to be sounding the alarm on defensive recruiting. We need to reload across the board.
Great read, alum96, but man this is depressing. The pundits are pretty unanimous that we can expect the ass-kickings vs the rivals to continue even at home this year, next year they're back on the road, and it sounds like a personnel crater is approaching after that due to the small '14 and '15 classes. Ugh...is an annual influx of grad transfers really a reasonable expectation, or are we seriously looking at another half-decade before an entire season of Michigan football is truly an enjoyable experience? I mean, hell, all I heard in '12 and '13 was that '15 was the year to wait for...
Well it is amazing at the long term implications of a bad class (or two) can have on a program. Not only was 2010 the worst recruiting class in modern history it left holes everywhere - holes that eventually got Hoke fired, along with (apparently) promising Morris not to recruit a QB in the year after him. A complete no no. Then that was followed up by a 2011 class that was transitional (Hoke + RR) and had a lot of non performers and people who checked out early. If not for Morgan's injury we'd not have 1 single RS SR from that 2011 class....as it stands with Hayes, Heitzman, Bellomy and Countess transferring, we only have 1. And truthfully of that group Countess was the only front line starter. For comparison I think MSU has something like 12 RS SRs - 5 of their front 7 on D alone are RS SR. Unlike basketball having 22/23 year old men out there helps a lot in football.
I do like to look ahead (see signature) and yes we have personnel issues coming. The tiny defensive haul in 2015 will hurt down the road. Like a bad class in 2010... you wont "feel" it until 2017-2018. We have 5 whole defensive players in this class - with normal attrition, injuries, players who don't pan out - you may get 3 of those guys to truly contribute as JRs/SRs. That is going to mean a young defense down the rroad. The 2014 class was also not huge on defensive players.... only 8, and 1 has transferred. 1 seems to be a TE now.
So in those 2 classes combined you have at most 12 lottery tickets i.e. players. If you take a traditional class of 22 recruits, maybe 11 in 1 year will be defense. So 22 over a 2 year cycle.... we will only have 12 for that 2 year cycle (at most). So we're going to be in that sorrt of situation lacking JRs and SRs down the road.
What does it mean? It means you can't be MSU on defense and redshirt guys, sit them, develop them. You need high ability guys who can come in and play right away. And you need you offense to be great to offset the young defense - OSU has some studs on defense but aside from Bosa they dont talk about OSU's defense because the offensive is so high flying and effective. UM's wont be as pretty as OSU but it can be ball control dominant in theory and keep the defense off the field.
The lack of a LB in this past class will have implications for this year but especially 2016. The lack of a DT doesnt matter for this year because we are stacked but wouldnt you want a guy to come in and be a RS in 2015 then be a RS FR in 2016 and be ready to be a major contributor as a RS SO in 2017? Because we lose almost all our interior lineman save Hurst and Mone after 2016. So we'll have true SOs and RS FRs at best as the backups - doable but not ideal. And the entire secondary is going to have to be rebuilt in 2 years, esp if Peppers goes pro. Lewis, Stribling, Lyons, Wilson, Peppers are all gone - you basically have Kinnel, Washington, Watson and a lot of questions in 2 years. Would have been nice to land another fish or two to supplement that in 2015 as the back 4 are going to be very young in 2017 outside of those 3. But to a degree you can plug in younger guys easier in the secondary than the DL... but you will still have rookie type mistakes that comes with the position.
This is why I am a bit surprised our defensive recruiting is going so slow. We can offer monster playing time at almost every position (except ironically DE, where we actually did land 2 players in 2015 and have some younger guys still) in 2016 (LBs) and 2017 (S, CB, LB, DTs). It's important to land guys in these next 2 classes on D who can play immediately or near immediately.
And no, I don't think a yearly influx of grad transfers is going to be a great solution. If you could take pure transfers more often it would help as Hoke could have taken 3 OL JUCOs a few years ago to supplement the 2013 OL and Harbaugh could have accepted 2-3 LB JUCOs this year to have ready for 2016. But it's not really an option at UM. Grad transfers are generally going to be guys like Furman or Lyons or Hayes Moncrief - guys who were displaced or never really grabbed a starting role. I see them more as depth guys and not guys you plug in as a starter. Guys like Countess are more of an exception to the grad transfer situation - he is better than average.
I don't think you can really fully judge a class that was recruited to play in Rodriguez's system but ended up in Hokes. There was a lot of busts, yeah, but the class was significantly better than 2011 even without considering players like Josh Furman who had success in another system.
Anyway, Gardner/Ryan/Dileo >> Clark/Morgan/Countess/Taylor
A single bad class is not a problem, but what it does is erase margin of error. If you have two bad classes in a row at almost any position group, you're in trouble.
In other words, it wasn't the 2010 class or the 2011 class that doomed Hoke, it was two consecutive classes that failed to be developed into productive groups. And, in the case of the worst of the worst (the OL) the problem got extended into 2012 ( a good class on paper but one that took a long time to develop and wasn't big enough to address the massive need.)
Grad transfers are absolutely a great way to get through these sort of bumps in the road. I don't know why people are so pessimistic about them when you have guys like Countess and Lyons moving around. Are they going to win the Heisman? No -- but Russel Wilson could have, and if MIchigan had a couple more NFL caliber players (a LT and a WR, say) Rudock might be a viable candidate too.
I just don't think there are that many grad transfers of value out there. Wilson is a massive anomaly who had very specific circumstances around him. If you put 100 grad transfers in a bucket you can't pick the very best one of those 100 and say "look how effective it is". The average grad transfer is a ho hum player who is probably a backup. I didnt think Blake Countess was an all star but I thought he was better from Lyons as I read up on Lyons.
Countess also would probably be in the top 10% of grad transfers - these are exceptions to the rule. The typical grad transfer is a lot more like Rawls or Moncrief - a guy constantly beat out by other guys and not a starter type.
Can you support the depth of a group with grad transfers? Sure. But if you are counting on front line starters for a team competing for conference championships it is difficult to rely on this system for a multitude of players. And it speaks to how bad your own development is if you need so many.
Of course he's an outlier (a super bowl QB always is), but we've seen so many example of proven player - starting caliber proven players - moving around, just around the Michigan program. I just don't see it as a bad thing in any way.
Michigan's lost Mundy and Furman and they've become not just good players but all-conference caliber impact starters. Countess could be that as well. But Michigan's also gained Lyons and Rudock. Rudock's a proven big 10 starter that could be the 3rd or 4th best QB in the Big 10 this year (or better, depending on how much faith you have in Harbaugh). Lyons may not be a 1st round NFL pick but he absolutely can be an average to above average starter in the Big 10.
You certainly have a point about the 'average' grad transfer, but Michigan's not going to get the 'average' grad transfer any more than they're going to get an 'average' recruit. Your median 4-star recruit isn't going to ever develop into as a good of a player as Rudock or Lyons. We get these guys for 1 year, at the peak of their college careers, which lets us put more scholarships on developing other positions (e.g., allowing us to red-shirt freshman or accept transfers like OKorn).
The game has evolved into a lot of 5th year players behaving like NFL free agents. These mercinaries aren't as awesome as having a heisman-caliber player you recruited yourself, but they are known commodities who can fill needs when your recruiting doesn't pan. They only require one scholarship year. Michigan should continue to bring as many of these kids as they can that will play a meaningful role. It sure beats losing them (e.g., Horford, Countess).
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We forget what Harbaugh and his staff did with much lower ranked players at Stanford. It's true that we lose all our starting linebackers next year, but it's not like we don't actually have players at that position. Thye just need to be coached up. Dantonio didn't get into his present situation by having a boatload of highly ranked players but by developing the players he had. I admit the raw numbers are small, but the underclassmen we have now need to perform. Harbaugh has been pretty good at that in the past.
Harbaugh is not a defensive coach just like Urban Meyer is not. I wouldnt talk about the D at Stanford in Harbaugh terms - he sets the program tone and works with the offense mostly. Stanford got by with offense their first 3 years - not defense. Stanford's first 3 defenses ranged from bad to mediocre - they were poor mostly. It wasn't until the 4th year when Vic Fangio showed up that the defense took a huge leap. Or you could argue Harbaugh's recruiting which took a few years to kick in on the defense combined with an elite coordinator. The same Fangio who did very good things with the 49ers.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/cc-statistical-look-jim-harbaughs-stanford-y…
(2007-2010)
| W/L | Tot Off | oFEI | oS&P+ | Tot Def | dFEI | dS&P+ | ||
| 2006 | 1-11 | 118 | - | 113 | 97 | - | 99 | |
| 2007 | 4-8 | 107 | 61 | 83 | 98 | 49 | 85 | |
| 2008 | 5-7 | 67 | 48 | 31 | 75 | 80 | 87 | |
| 2009 | 8-5 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 90 | 91 | 113 | |
| 2010 | 12-1 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 6 | |
| 2011 | 11-2 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 13 | 22 |
Still it took 4 years to get there - not a solution for 2016 for UM. And yes we get a higher quality of player but again we only have 12 of them in total for 2 years worth of recruiting on the defense. It's a numbers game - we should have had 20-22.
As for Dantonio - MSU has a model of redshirting almost everyone who is not a 5 star or close (2-3 guys a year dont redshirt, and usually 1 is a kicker type) and then having them make an impact in year 3-5 of their career. That is not the typical UM model and certainly aside from Furbush and Wagner not an option for UM. Gedeon is the only guy who seems on the MSU track i.e. redshirt, then get some taste of the game in year 2-3 but not be relied upon ....then play a key role in year 4/5. Gant is thus far a non entity and McCray really has not been heard from other than special teams. So those guys don't fit that model. And I have doubts that guys who have had zero taste of real playing time on the D suddenly become front line starters as JRs/SRs.
I have to assume Winovich is going to be flipped back to LB just from a #s perspective. But if he is going to be a LB in 2016 he should be training as one in 2015. He has no college game experience at the position so thrusting him in a starting role (if he wins one) after practicing a year at TE would not make sense to me. Losing Ferns was a huge hit - he seemed like a Harbaugh recruit if ever there was one. Furbush has seemingly been hurt constantly since on campus and Wangler - name aside - seemed more like a legacy recruit. We'll see if he can become something. Unlike the DTs with say a Hurst you don't hear a thing about the Furbush, Wangler types pushing the older players based on pure talent.
But the bigger point of this issue is you need X candidates to develop Y starters... and Z backups. And in college football no matter how good the coaching you get a certain # of flameouts. With such low #s to begin with (12 defensive players over 2 recruiting cycles) and with flameouts ineviable you have a very limited pool of players to develop. So guys who would not normally be starting probably will end up doing so just because we need warm bodies at those positions. I do think if we land a Caleb Kelly type - he might be a starter right off in 2016.
We're all guessing, but my guess is that the previous staff struggled tremendously both with developing young players and figuring out how to best deploy the useful players they had. I think you'll see a different defense (and offense, and special teams) immediately.
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I agree with this. We really don't know what we have, and the possibilities range from mediocre (no one is better than what they showed under Hoke) to excellent (nearly everyone is better than what they showed under Hoke).
We just don't know. After last year, I'm extremely gunshy about predictions that are anything close to optimistic.
I also don't think Peppers is going to play a traditional FS role.
The thing I think people forget when making the Stanford comparisons is that Michigan is starting with FAR more talent than what JH walked into there - even on offense. Certainly on defense, where we also have the benefit of continuity from Mattison and a (potentially) elite coordinator in Derkin. It is absolutely reasonable to hope for (expect?) a top 20 defense when you look at the personnel and coaching talent.
Offense - OK, there aren't much in the way of playmakers, and lots of crap to unlearn from what was a pretty horrific coaching staff at developing talent. But the raw materials are there, a 5th year veteran QB, experienced OL, and still more talent at the skill positions than almost everyone in the Big 10.
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There was a time in the late RR/early Hoke eras that we seemed to trot out a lot of undersized and/or 3-star types. I know recruiting is recruiting, but sheesh, this was THE year I was really excited about a few years back. We were finally going to have a QB that could throw the ball down the field (Morris). A big o-line full of 4-stars would be old enough to start to show their stuff (Kalis, Mags, Kugler, Dawson, Fox, Bosch, LTT, etc.). We had a star running back (Green) and playmakers at WR and TE that can test defenses (Butt, Funchess, Harris).
Even though that sounded great on paper, the defense is what I am most surprised with. I know they have been much better than the offense, but I figured after those two classes, this group of jr's and sr's would be one of the top groups in the country. There were two top 150 corners in Lewis and Richardson, two good safeties in Wilson and Thomas, LBs galore in RJS, Ross, Bolden, McCray, and Gedeon, and all the talent you'd need up front in Wormley, Pipkins, Ojemudia, Charlton, and Poggi. Take that and throw in your token top young world beater in Peppers and you've got yourself a top defense.
I know this sounds like a pipe dream and maybe other teams can go position-for-position in recruiting stars in two upperclassman classes like this too, but when I think about the difference between where we could have been and where we are it's disapointing. There are so many guys that may still do a lot in their last season(s), but that I expected many to have already been proven playmakers, or at the very least have shown enough in backup roles to be convinced they are gonna be really good this year. Instead most of them are huge question marks, busts, now-or-never types, or we are already looking at the next guy recruited behind them. Guys like Morris, Green, Kalis, Harris, RJS, McCray, Gedeon, Richardson, Pipkins, Charlton. I mean that's a lot of recruiting stars to have done very little so far in their UM careers.
I was going to do a diary post reranking the 2012 class i.e. what their original star rating was and what it is looking like now as they hit the back end of their careers. It was pretty depressing so I decided to just junk the post since I already sound like a negative nelly hah.
Yes a lot of stars are left on the table. It amazes me that a team like Minnesota (whose 2012 class had NOT ONE 4 star on it) and Utah (who has I believe 3 four stars on the entire roster) can physically dominate a UM squad.
I think defense is just difficult to play in a lot of conferences with the spread concepts - you can have a great D but still get exploited from time to time. But Big 10 offenses are mostly quite boring and staid excl Indiana, OSU - its not a league full of exotic offenses so the defenses should be doing better here than in other leagues.
I do think it goes down to position coaching - it really does. Way too much (IMO) is made of the coordinators... I think position coaching is the least appreciated part of a program. You have limited hours with these kids so not only do you have to teach the physical part, but the mental part and distilling game planning in an easy to absorb manner. Having 2 weeks to prepare for MSU the past 2 years and them only having 1 and still beating us around like a rented mule showed me the vast difference in the coaching staffs up and down the line. As does the landing spots of all our ex position coaches - we had 1 position coach land a P5 job and that was at one of the worst P5 schools. The others are in a myriad of bad football schools. Who judges football coaches better than anyone else? Their peers. The peers of UM's position coaches under Hoke were not impressed.
I do think other than the guy at the top the position coaching will be the biggest difference go forward and I am excited about that. Even Carr had some issues with this IMO - I think Seth did a great diary a few months ago on how some guys got jobs in the Carr era. I think Harbaugh has already developed a lot of good assistant coaches and if someone is failing for 2 years he won't be grandfathered or moved to another spot - he will be jettisoned. As it should be.
It's hard for a casual fan to know anything about coaches, beacause lets face it, we have no idea what happens in practice. We only see what happens during the games. The hard part about that is that whatever Hoke was selling seemed so effective in his first year and so ineffective as the years went on. I guess I credit that to the culture change and "rah rah effect" if that makes sense.I hope we have a little more substance and a little less rah rah effect with the new regime so we can develop some long term consistency. We need a system and a true identity that we can follow long term, but that will require some actual success. Hoke wanted to do that, but didn't have any success. Anyways, I trust Harbaugh, but my mentality is a little beat down due to the presence of continued medoicrity. Thanks for the discussion.
May be good with an 8-4 or 9-3 record, but I agree the lack of depth at LB will hurt this team in 2016, especially with playing MSU and OSU on the road. But if JH can get the offense humming this may mitigate a less than perfect defense in 2016. Eventually JH will right the ship and we will be getting top recruits who will RS their first season and he will build depth. That's why I think it will take JH 4 years to return us to the point of being a top 10 team and entering the playoffs on a year bases! I'm more optimistic talking up the 4 year plan with JH than Hoke!
While I agree it may take a few years, I was very optimistic with Hoke after a 10-2 season and two very good recruiting classes in '12 and '13. To be fair to Hoke, so far his recruiting has been better than Harbaugh's. But, that may be in part because of Hoke's great first season, which may have been due to what was left him more than his coaching ability and that of his staff. And, that team got a lot of luck and a lot of turnovers, which seem to be very much a part of chance. Harbaugh was left a pretty solid group too, especially on defense. But, he's lacking at a pretty important position (QB). Hoke had D-Rob who had huge games and important wins against ND, Nebraska, and OSU. Of course, it helped that OSU had an interim head coach was was surrounded by turmoil amist TatGate and this year's OSU team is expected to via for a second straight NT, but whatevs. I still have faith in Harbaugh. But, I think it will take some time and I was very optimistic with Hoke at one point too.
Our program will be down for years to come. But I think JH will turn it around. We need to give him time to recruit players, build depth and coach players up!
I just don't see failure as an option for Harbaugh. Now it may take longer than most on the board wish or hope for but there are certain people who just perform wherever they go and Jim will be one of those people here. But there will be some shoe horning between now and "then".
Why does everyone think there's going to be a massive redshirt program going on? Harbaugh believes in competition. The best players play. If a true freshman has earned the right to play, he's going to play. Yeah, there's certain position groups that lend itself to redshirting (oline and QB). However, in this day and age if you're a top recruit you aren't going to college to redshirt you're freshman year. You're going there to play on Saturdays.
Is there going to be some redshirting? Sure, but there's still going to be plenty of guys who aren't redshirting.
This is an excellent run-down of the depth chart and great conversation-starter for the summer. Nice work.
Things I like:
- · Recognition of positional fluidity
- · Marginalization of linebackers in comparison to DBs
- · Certainty of injury
- · Calling BS on blaming the offense for the defense’s failures
- · “Peppers needs to prove it”
Things I think could have been better addressed:
- · Not enough DTs listed. Backup DTs are FAR more important than backup safeties, linebackers, etc. because of rotation. Same goes for the 3rd string DTs – who will see meaningful snaps almost every game, whereas your 3rd string SAM for example is all but irrelevant.
- · Why bother worrying about LB depth if it’s more like 2 positions than 3?
- · Is depth really a concern anywhere outside of DE? We aren’t Alabama, but when your worst case scenario is playing people like Jeremy Clark or Dymonte Thomas – how bad is it really?
- · Couldn’t/shouldn’t we expect a senior season ‘step-up’ from Bolden, Wilson, Ojemudia and maybe even Ross. HARBAUGH?!?
I’d pencil him in a the starter at SDE until proven otherwise. The DT depth is loaded. The DE spot is a weakness. Mattison and Derkin have both displayed a fondness for versatility and are comfortable with 3-4 type personnel.
Even if you need 5 guys to adequately man the two interior DL positions, Michigan has it. Glasgow, Mone, Henry are all proven players. Godin’s been a contributor and Hurst is reported to be pushing. That’s without even going into the SDE types who have been used by Mattison as interior pass rush specialists pretty consistently (e.g., Charlton) or including Pallante (whose long-term home still seems at DT to me). We’re loaded here, even without Wormley – who can always slide back inside if injuries accumulate.
Meanwhile, over at DE we have Charlton – who has been hyped, has got some run at both DT and WDE, and seems like a natural fit at SDE. While that all sounds nice, he hasn’t played nearly well enough to instill confidence as a starter yet as he enters his junior year. Neither has Poggi of course. Wormley has – even if he doesn’t exactly fit the prototypical pass-rush threat he can at least be there for downs 1 and 2.
Putting 3 DT types on the field at once supports a better run defense and helps allow a rangier pass-rush threat on the edge. Ojemudia will certainly play a big role but has been pedestrian at best thusfar. I think Michigan would like to get Marshall and the true freshman on the field immediately. If not them than a 240 plus pound LB is another option and McCray, Gedeon, and RJS all have come in for praise at various times. It would come as no shock if those guys added weight by fall and ended up around Ojemudia’s 250 lb size.
The best way to get our best athletes on the edge is to keep the OL occupied with 3 powerful 300 pound DTs on the field at once.
I don’t think this is even remotely a problem in 2015. (2016 is a different story, but there’s no point in worrying about that over the summer.)
Ryan was a great player for us but putting him at MLB seemed to limit his playmaking ability. Morgan and Bolden can replicate his production there. Gedeon’s been pushing quality players for 2 years and seems ready for a starting gig if called upon. Ross, at the very worst, is a quality player.
That’s 4 good to very good players at a position where you only really need 2, as discussed in the article. In other words, depth is sufficient before you start considering McCray, RJS, and the others. Oh and don’t write-off Winovich yet. Harbaugh moves people around way too often to consider this a permanent move yet.
I think we’re a lot better off than people think for two reasons: positional flexibility, faith in Stribling and Watson.
An injury would hurt of course but this is where Peppers is so invaluable. If Lewis or Lyons go down for an extended period there’s a good chance that Peppers can step in at CB and excel. He might even if the coaches find that Lyons is a better fit at safety than as their ‘other’ CB. We seems to have a pretty well established top 5 and Lyons and Peppers have versatility that allows positions to be fluid. I honestly don’t get the Moncreif transfer talk. Our secondary is loaded – if there wasn’t a starting spot for Countess why would Moncreif have one? Nobody is taking a grad transfer to play special teams.
I too was bummed when Stribling failed to add weight a year ago but lets keep things in perspective here. Lewis looks like a stud and Countess was a darn good player too (struggles last year or not.) Is it really a surprise that Stribling didn’t overtake them? You can argue he should have seen more time (instead of say Hollowell), but we’re still talking about a kid who looked on par with Lewis as a freshman and was in Allen Robinson’s pocket before getting overpowered repeatedly. I also thought he looked more than competent in 2014. His recruiting profile said he was going to be raw and skinny and he was. Be patient, take your medicine, and don’t worry. I’d like to see some of the blind optimism being doled out to Ty Issac, Shane Morris, and Brian Cole redirected to a kid who actually played pretty well for a skinny underclassmen. Prediction: Stribling’s 2015 season makes us very comfortable heading into 2016, penciling him in as Lyon’s replacement.
Even if I’m dead wrong on Stribling, Watson has gotten consistent praise so that’s not a guy I’d worry about playing either. So, we’re talking about 2 proven starters and 2 guys who signs say could end up being very good starters and should make excellent backups this year. Plus, that Peppers kid is a helluva insurance policy if things go really bad outside and we have a couple other promising freshman in the secondary too.
I don’t really understand the FS/SS distinction for this coaching staff yet, but it seems backward to what I’m used to; Wilson as the deep guy (FS) with Hill/Peppers creeping up to the box (SS). Clark and Thomas seem like decent backups.
We have a multi-year starter entering his senior year. We have a freshman who was praised for his freak athleticism and strength for his size plus got hype since the day he hit campus...and Jabrill Peppers too. Behind those 3 we have post-hype Dymonte Thomas and a small-forward sized guy people talked about putting at corner back (in Clark).
We're going to be juuuuust fine.
Nice write up, thanks for giving me a good read at work.
I don't have any more information than you other than (sigh) spring reports, but I really think Wormley will have a great year at SDE. Like a 2nd or maybe even 1st team All-B1G year opposite Bosa. He has managed to keep his athleticism that he came in with while putting on weight. I really think this is the year we see the beast in him.
This would be huge for us if we could basically not take him off the field making the depth at WDE Charlton-Ojemudia-Marshall. Taco could move to SDE to spell Wormley/for passing situations too. It will take a fortunate year injuries-wise, but our defense should be very good.
I think the rotation at NT will be so rampant that there won't really be a starter. Mone and Glasgow will probably go about 50/50 on running downs, with Henry and Hurst/Wormley as your DT's in passing situations. I expect Willie Earl to have an all B1G year too, kid has the strength/explosion of a lowland gorilla, needs to show up every down. I think he does that for Harbaugh, and then harbaugh turns around and says to Rashan Gary "look at your future".
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