Stop the Madness … OR … Why RichRod Won’t Be Fired By Season’s End
Yes, the dual title is a shout-out to “Rocky and Bowinkle”.
Although this post should be totally unnecessary, idiocy abounds and the madness must be stopped. Short of writing personal checks to players (or some equivalently massive set of rule violations), Rich Rodriguez WILL NOT BE FIRED by season’s end. He will live to fight another day and to coach another year in Ann Arbor no matter what happens on the field this season.
I was listening to WTKA recently and they had some airhead running his mouth about how RR is on the “hot seat” this year, that he needs to have a winning record, etc. I got ticked by his obvious ignorance of what exactly constitutes the “hot seat” and his general lack of analysis, betraying a lack of understanding of the state of M Football. But I dismissed it for what it was: talk radio. They’ve gotta talk about something to justify their existence. And the more simplistic, inane, and agitating, the better.
Then Brian linked a Phil Steele article from the Orlando Sentinel in which Phil lists RR as the #7 coach in I-A (FBS) on the “hot seat” and I couldn’t take it anymore.
FIRST of all, let’s start with the definition of the euphemism “hot seat”. In sports, “on the hot seat” means “you’re about to get fired unless you produce like now.” The last word in that sentence is where Phil (and others) must be getting confused. It’s not “yesterday” or “last year”, because that’s “you WERE fired.” It’s not “in the next 3-5 years”, because that’s a seat that’s just not hot. Hot Seat = NOW … or else.
SECOND, let’s look at what Phil said about RR.
· Phil expects M to be an underdog in 7 games. By implication, that means Michigan would be a favorite in 5 games. No one in Wolverine Nation would be thrilled by a 5-7 finish. But RR won’t get fired over it either. Why? Because Michigan AD, Bill Martin, is a patient man. Bill knows that his football coach is only in his second year of getting his players and his system in place. Bill waited through 5 years of Tommy Amaker, he’ll certainly wait through 3-5 years of RR.
· Phil thinks RR will get us to a decent bowl and make major strides just like he did in his 2nd year at West Virginia. We would need to go 6-6 to go to any kind of bowl, 8-4 to go to a “decent bowl”, as Phil says. Why would that get RR fired? That sounds like the kind of progress everyone is hoping for.
· Phil thinks that a lot Michigan alumni mistakenly assume that RR’s spread offense is a pass-first, run-second scheme (like, who exactly, Phil?). Even if that were true, it would have exactly ZERO effect on RR being fired this season.
I'm sorry, Phil. Why exactly is RR in your "hot seat"?
THIRD, even a major catastrophe on the field this season would not result in RR being fired. Hypothetically, let’s envision Michigan going 0-12 this year. That means we lose to Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Indiana, and Delaware State all at home. Let’s just focus on those four games. Imagine the plausible scenarios by which we would accomplish this level of devastation. Here’s what comes to mind:
· Injuries to every starter AND Nick Sheridan and David Cone and … (Zoltan can play QB and we still beat Delaware State)
· Everyone who returns kicks/punts fumbling the ball (cf. the 2008 Wisconsin game)
· Coaches using a Ouija board to decide what plays to call
· Opponents discovering kryptonite to neutralize Zoltan’s super powers
· Pre-game F-16’s piloted by Bucknuts crashing into the Michigan bench kamikaze-style
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Last year, we beat Miami Ohio, the moral equivalent of Delaware State. Last year, we beat Wisconsin after turning the ball over 5 times in the first half. Last year, Nick Sheridan (bless his heart) led us to victory ON THE ROAD against Minnesota. Last year, we had the worst football team I’ve ever seen, and we still won 3 games.
There’s no way we do any worse than last year. Everyone on the roster has as much (true freshmen) or more (everyone else) experience as last year’s team. Which means we make some (or “significant” according to Phil Steele) improvement this year (somewhere between 4-8 and 8-4). Which means RR will not be fired this year. Which means RR is in no way on “the hot seat” this year.
So give it a rest, folks.
And don’t start talking about those Michigan fans who blindly defend RR at all costs. I’m not saying he’s the second-coming. Heck, we’re probably looking at a 6-6 season. I’m just saying there’s no plausible on-the-field scenario by which he gets fired by season’s end. Get used to the idea that RR will be our coach for 2009, 2010, and probably at least 2011 before he’s at risk of being fired. Like I said, Bill Martin is a patient man, even if you’re not. Use your heads and cool your jets.
And GO BLUE!
RR's contract has pretty hefty buyout payments in the early years. The first year it was to the tune of $4M -- yep, that amount -- and it's still in that neighborhood until after year three.
That makes me think there's no way in hell he's fired after this year (nor next) no matter what happens. Personally, I think he's a good football coach and there won't BE a reason to consider firing him at the end of the season. But that's just, like, my opinion, man.
I race cars, play tennis, and fondle women. But I have weekends off, and I am my own boss.
I think a lot of patience has gone out the window. UM entered the modern age with Rich Rod's hire. The circus-like atmosphere of all the WVU stuff, the losing, the coaching change, the defections and decommits--anyone who turns a blind eye to all that stuff is being stubborn.
Does anyone really think Rodriguez would survive a sub-500 2009 and survive with anything less than a New Year's Day bowl (on the heels of a 10-2 record at worst) in 2010? Two years and gone is preposterous--but don't go past that in assuming anything. If 2009 is another disaster, 2010 will bring a Big Ten championsip and a BCS bowl, or Rodney will be packing his bags. And he'd better not start out 0-3 against all his big rivals, and yes, he'd better find a way not to start out 0-3 against Tressel.
If UM and the fans accept anything less than a serious super-duper electric charge at the Big Ten title in 2010--UM is in the wrong business.
You simply can NOT go into a school like Michigan, after he 40-year run they just had, and carpet bomb that run two straight years and expect ANY kind of leash.
That being said, it is what it is.
Yeah, actually, I agree and stand corrected. I originally wrote that RR would be our coach through 2011, but very poor years in 2009 and 2010 would definitely put him at high risk of not seeing 2011.
That said, I do think we'll go between 5-7 and 7-5 this year, with more improvement in 2010. We could compete for the Big Ten title by then, and RR will be held up to that standard. If he is trending towards annual improvement (as I expect he will be), I think it's likely he'll be around for a while. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen. I'm just saying it's likely.
Thanks to everyone for the vigorous back-and-forth. We can all agree on one thing: GO BLUE!
We DO need to remember the talent level and the defections the transition (naturally) caused. Bo took the thing by storm in '69, then went, I believe, the next six years being undefeated coming into the OSU game. Not gonna happen here.
Still, barring conference championships and bolw game wins and bigger things, I think we need to see pretty solid improvement beginnin this year. Of course, 7-5 is momunmental over last year. I'd say you go into 2010 expecting to be a favorite in the Big Ten and living up to that. Really, if UM goes 7-5 and bowling (especially bowling and winning)--would anyone settle for 8-4 in 2010? I don't think even Rich Rod would.
That being said, it is what it is.
will make the subject of this thread a moot point by November. This IS the University of Michigan we're talking about, and RR will win enough games to show more than reasonable improvement.
http://midnightmaize.blogspot.com/
DRod will get three years - then Les will be courted
bob_ufer
Les turned the job down already.
I'm gonna take two weeks off, and then quit.
It's hard to blame Zombie Bob Ufer for his ridiculous comment; his medulla rotted off sometime before 1992. Nowadays he spouts inane hot seat rumors and feasts on human flesh.
I blame anyone for any ridiculously stupid comment they make, regardless of who it is.
I find myself becoming more the crotchety old man every day, less and less tolerant of blatant and obvious stupidity. I don't heckle people and I prefer not to be heckled.
I say back under their rocks with these losers.
Wasting away in Ohio, a Wolverine in a sea of red and grey
I don't think RR will be gone by the end of this season. And that primarily has to do with the fact that I think that we'll have a winning record and go to a bowl game.
However, I do disagree on one point you made where you related Bill Martin's patience with Tommy Amaker as being the same as with RichRod. No. UofM football and UofM basketball are not even near the same level of being under scrutiny by alumni.
i only respect other superfans
I guess it's hard to say really. Michigan football has been stable enough that we haven't had to deal with a coach firing, at least in recent history. The closest we have is Moeller resigning, but those were for public embarassment reasons and not for lack of bowl games.
So, while I agree Michigan football is on a different level than Michigan basketball, we also don't have a history of lopping off the heads of coaches either.
This will all of course be completely irrelevant once the season actually starts and we start rolling people.
It's Bullwinkle.
...and by that, I mean helter-skelter, willy-nilly and putt-putt!
And that asterisk being that I flew across the country to a game with the explicit thought that "At least there is no way we can lose." That game is now known as The Horror.
So I take a little exception to "Zoltan can play QB and we still beat Delaware State"
Sarcasm is my drinking buddy
Regardless of it's right or wrong, I really don't think it is out o the realm of possibility that RR could be fired at the end of this season if he fails to make a bowl. While I understand that Bill Martin is fully behind RR forever and for always, who is behind Bill Martin? After he seemed to botch the Les Miles situation, he is not the most liked person in AA. Does RR deserve 3 years? Probably. But, boosters and alumni are powerful people in this program and someone needs to buy these new suites, so while I don't think it will happen, it's more possible than you're making it, I think.
And to Don's post, you said that going back to a pro-style would be a "major transition." While I'm not a football coach, nor a player of organized football, I don't think it would be a difficult transition. The O-line already knows how to block for a pro-style coming out of high school, while Tate is too short to run a pro-style, Devin Gardner is 6'5, he could stand in the pocket and could still use his legs the way Troy Smith did in OSU's pro-style. We'd need more size at the wide receive position but Daryl Stonum should suffice there, and we would need to add another with recruiting. Call me on this if I'm completely wrong here, but I don't think it'd be too hard for Jim Harbaugh to get it going here.
"There isn't a Michigan Man who wouldn't like go out and scalp those Buckeyes right now. They had the audacity, the unmitigated gall, to tear down the coveted M-Banner that Michigan's going to run out from under! But the M-men will prevail." - Bob Ufer
I think many alumni, myself included, do not want Jim Harbaugh as the coach after the comments he made. He can stay at Stanford. IME, RR is a better coach and recruiter.
I'm gonna take two weeks off, and then quit.
It's people like you who put my University's football program at risk. Please stop trolling here. Stop trying to stir things up. Any alum from UM (donor or not) understands we need to be patient. We've made an investment. A well thought out investment. RR's record speaks for itself. Lloyd Carr stated that Rodriguez was the best young coach available.
I see you as someone who fears RR, and is praying we make a foolish decision and fire him after this season.
Go back to farming, or go back to wearing buckeyes (anal beads) around your neck.
Lastly, go fuck yourself.
I put the program at risk? How so? I am just a student and fan, I give no money, I have no position at the University, I have no control. Also, you seem to know every alumni as any alumni is patient you say, but really that is not the case. I have spoken with multiple alumni who are unhappy with the situation and if you have spoken with many who are patient and happy, then we should agree to disagree. I have no fear of RR, I hope he wins, I do, but all I was saying if he doesn't produce he will be fired. I do not farm and I am personally opposed to the use of anal beads, just a personal thing.
Lastly, chill the fuck out and stop taking things as a personal attack.
"There isn't a Michigan Man who wouldn't like go out and scalp those Buckeyes right now. They had the audacity, the unmitigated gall, to tear down the coveted M-Banner that Michigan's going to run out from under! But the M-men will prevail." - Bob Ufer
So, to get this straight, you took the time to respond by saying, "Yeah, it's probably unlikely, but technically speaking it's not impossible." Is that right?
Do you have anything else? Specifically, what possible scenario comes to mind when you say that RR could be fired by season's end if he doesn't make a bowl? What would boosters and alumni do to pressure Bill Martin into firing a head coach he just hired less than two years earlier?
You and I both know that Bill is gonna have no problems selling those boxes, no matter what happens on the field this year. The people to whom he's marketing these boxes have the money and motivation to snatch them up before someone else does. They'll have an eye towards the future and what could be. Few if any will say, "I'm a huge M fan and I'm rolling in the dough, but after consecutive 3-9 seasons I'm not buying a luxery box on matter of principle. Fire the coach, Bill, and then I'll reconcider."
You're saying: "Mathmatically, it's possible."
I'm saying: "It won't happen. It's so unlikely that you can count it as a certain impossibility."
Scott, you're very good at over-simplifying situations to the point where they seem ridiculous. Actually on second thought, you're right, I was definitely thinking that the boosters were going to say" ' I'm a huge M fan and I'm rolling in the dough, but after consecutive 3-9 seasons I'm not buying a luxery (sic) box on a matter of principle. Fire the coach, Bill, I'll reconcider (sic)" I'm saying boosters are fickle people, and if I was giving large amounts of money I would look for immediate results. There wouldn't be misspelled quotes as you pointed out; but there would be pressure, people were mad at Bill Martin for messing the Les Miles deal and it wouldn't take too much more for Mary Sue Coleman to send him packing. Further I'm not saying it's mathematically possible, I'm saying it's probable based upon certain mathematical results, like a sub-.500 season.
"There isn't a Michigan Man who wouldn't like go out and scalp those Buckeyes right now. They had the audacity, the unmitigated gall, to tear down the coveted M-Banner that Michigan's going to run out from under! But the M-men will prevail." - Bob Ufer
So here's what we've got for probable cause:
(1) Alumni and Boosters doing something as yet unnamed to pressure Bill Martin into firing RR, but certainly not what I said they wouldn't do/say
(2) My inability to correctly spell a couple words in a blog post, which were hyperbolic quotes invented to make the opposite point
(3) The fury of Mary Sue Coleman in the wake of two disappointing seasons (would she be firing Bill Martin, RR, or both, in your estimation?)
DGlenn26, I think everyone is looking for immediate results. But I also think enough people are willing to suck up a couple bad seasons in the expectation that RR can turn the ship around. Bill Martin is one of those people, and he'll be able to keep the fickle alumni and boosters in check for two years, no matter what the on-the-field results are.
I'm not hoping for it, but we might just get to test our divergent hypotheses, becuase it's likely we will be at or below .500 this season.
Okay.
"There isn't a Michigan Man who wouldn't like go out and scalp those Buckeyes right now. They had the audacity, the unmitigated gall, to tear down the coveted M-Banner that Michigan's going to run out from under! But the M-men will prevail." - Bob Ufer
who will probably buy expensive seats in 2010, I would not want Rodriguez fired even if he went 0-12 this year, which will not happen. If he was below .500 this year and next and continued to have attrition problems and the team didn't seem to get better, then I could see wanting him fired after 2010, despite the trouble that would cause for the program.
And not all boosters and alumni think Martin botched the Les Miles hiring. I don't think Les Miles is that great of a coach. Didn't he win the NC with Saban's players and get really fucking lucky on a couple bone headed coaching calls, like letting the clock wind down and chucking up a desperation pass at the end of a game? I have read on this board (don't know if its true) that Lloyd hated Miles and didn't want him as the new coach. And finally, whether Martin "didn't answer his cell phone" or whatever, I think it is presumptuous to assume that Miles would have come here in any circumstance, since his situation at LSU is pretty sweet.
I personally believe Martin is doing an excellent job. I really like Beilien, Rodriuez, the renovations and the fact that our athletic department is in the black. He is also attuned to the desires of the Michigan community and is scheduling a BCS opponent for a home and home to start 2010. What more do you want from the guy?
While you may be "spelling great," your posts haven't been without flaws. For example, in your previous post you said something about "multiple alumni." That is redundant as the word "alumni" is already plural. I'm no grammar nazi and don't really care, but I figured it was worth pointing out
Yeah you're right. The title was meant to be more of a joke, though I now see that it looked like a complete cheap shot as if I had nothing legitimate to say so I just talked about his spelling.
"There isn't a Michigan Man who wouldn't like go out and scalp those Buckeyes right now. They had the audacity, the unmitigated gall, to tear down the coveted M-Banner that Michigan's going to run out from under! But the M-men will prevail." - Bob Ufer
Jim Harbaugh will never be considered for the Michigan coaching job. You don't directly throw your own legendary coach under the bus, assailing his integrity and that of the program he cared so much about—not to mention when he can't defend himself—and then expect that the Athletic Department will then simply forget what you said and dangle millions of dollars under your nose. Ain't gonna happen.
I would think historically speaking Michigan's general resistance to firing anybody (Amaker for example) would be enough proof that Rich Rod isn't going anywhere after two years. So shut up already, Media.
This in addition to the high likelihood that our beloved football shows substancial progress this year, naturally.
I agree that, absent any ethical malfeasance, there's no chance he will be fired at the end of this season, regardless of what happens.
However, if we have a losing season this year, and then God forbid, have the same in 2011 with no apparent progress being made by then, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Needless to say, the bigshot alumni donors will be apoplectic over a losing season this year, and after the same in 2011 Bill Martin would have to go into hiding. That doesn't mean he'd let RR go, but the pressure on him to do so would be intense.
The problem with letting him go after 3 years is the same with letting him go after this year: who do you get as a replacement, and what kind of system will they want to implement? If we got somebody who was a proponent of a pro-set offense like we used to have, then we're staring at another massive transition. If we sought out somebody who would continue the spread in some way, who's really going to be better at running it than RR?
RR has a lot to prove; his past record is an indication of likely success, but it guarantees precisely squat. My epinion is that by 2011 we'll be a solid contender for the B10 championship at the minimum. If we aren't, there's going to be a lot of grumpy people around these parts.