Son of Lloyd Brady

Today in "Please God give me Football," I look at some of the best rivalries in today's sports. I originally began this about a month ago as a look at just college football rivalries but I realized there were very few that I cared enough about to waste my time looking at. I then expanded my research a little bit into pro football, basketball and baseball and was pretty interested in what I found. I have a link at the end of the Diary that will take you to the data that I used for the analysis.

I wanted to look at how closely some of the most celebrated rivalries have been played – the scores,  series record, and score difference – but I realized that if I wanted to compare them I would need to look at it a different way as score difference in baseball would be much less than football. I decided to look at the average difference as a percent of the total score (from here on out referred to as ADTS) to give me a better idea of how close the games were actually played.

Looking at The Game, I was surprised to see the magnitude of the point spread, especially when compared to the Red River Rivalry, over 3 points between UM and Ohio, while less than 1 point separated UT and OU. Also very interesting in the RRR, UT holds a considerable advantage in the series record but has a lower average score.

The same also goes here for the Tenn/FL rivalry – Tenn averages 6 more points/game but is losing in the series standing. The series for the Iron Bowl is actually much closer than I anticipated, I have normally thought of Auburn as Bama’s Michigan State, makes a run in the series every couple of decades but generally inferior in the long run. UA has actually held their own quite well, but with Bama’s recent dominance (apart from Cam Newton) it looks like the series gap may start to widen.

The two basketball rivalries I looked at are much closer in ADTS than one would think when looking at the separation in the series record. Despite being down in the series 30 games, Duke scores less than 1 point less than UNC. I find that very amazing after nearly 250 meetings. The Celtics and Lakers have a higher average score than I would have guessed as the two teams usually seem to have some of the best defenses in the league and over 105 points is a rather high scoring average.

The storied rivalry between the Bears and Packers definitely lived up to its reputation, very close series average, close scores as well as ADTS. The Cowboys/Redskins matchup is not quite as close but still has a small scoring difference. Some of the flare from this rivalry has been diminished as both of the teams haven’t fared well for the better half of the past decade but it is still a strong rivalry.

I figure most of you have either stopped reading and skipped this part or are losing interest so I’ll wrap it up. Last I looked at the Yankees and BoSox, and this information was a bitch to find (pardon my French, but this was not a fun one to put together either).  Yankees have a considerable lead in the series and while the average runs scored are right in the ballpark (pun intended) of what I would assume, they are closer than what I thought they would be looking at the series record.

Man, I really need football to start, is it September 1st yet?!

Data can be found here: https://skydrive.live.com/#!/edit.aspx?cid=778D17BE3D63472D&resid=778D17BE3D63472D%21107&nd=1

Due to extreme boredom at work as well as my curiosity for how Denard matched up with other dual-threat QB’s last year, I decided to compare him with RGIII, KSU’s Collin Klein, Taylor Martinez, & Braxton Miller. None of my statistics are groundbreaking, I am not the Mathlete, but I do find the stats interesting and some a bit suprising.

Denard Robinson

In out of conference games (OOC) Denard was atrocious throwing the ball, with nearly 1-1 TD/INT ratio and less than 48% completion. However, he was very effective running the ball at almost 7 YPC. In conference games, his passing stats improved quite a bit but rushing took a dip, except for RUSH/TD which actually increased. His statistics for home games compared to conference games are very similar to one another, as are away and neutral compared to OOC games.

Personally, I felt like Denard looked much better later in the season than his numbers indicate, and aside from his ATT’s/INT the last 7 games his numbers actually decreased in proficiency.

RGIII

If it seemed like RGIII was putting up video game numbers to open last season, well he wasn’t because you can’t put up numbers like that in video games. He started with amazing proficiency and I got all too well known #DIV/O! error message for his OOC ATT/INT & TD/INT because he didn’t throw any picks until conference play. Although his stats weren’t as gaudy in conference, I’m sure any QB in the nation would have accepted that level of play as he was still extremely effective.

What I find most amazing is that over the first 6 games, he averaged only one pick per 91 passing attempts. From there his stats plummeted to a dismal INT every 55 throws.

/s, obviously.

I’m not analyzing any more of his stats because they are all incredible and I guess that’s why he won that Heisman thing I keep hearing about.

Collin Klein

Klein’s stats are very comparable to Denard’s, much more than I realized, and top to bottom seem very pedestrian until you notice that he rushed for 27 TD’s last season. His conference rushing numbers were outstanding as he averaged a TD about every 10 rushes. His passing numbers were solid but not spectacular, as there were no glaring weaknesses in his game and he was very consistent across the board whether home, away, in or OOC.

Interestingly, while Klein averaged a pass/game more than Denard, Denard was much more volatile, passing for more TD’s but also throwing more INT’s than Klein did TD’s. Overall Klein will not ‘wow’ you with his skill, but he is a good QB for what KSU is running and will keep them in games without losing it in bad decisions.

Taylor Martinez

Taylor Martinez began 2011 rushing the ball with great proficiency, scoring 9 TD’s in 6 games (once nearly every rushes) and averaging close to 6 YPC. His passing was an entirely different story as he had a 1:1 TD/INT ratio and completed less than 55% of his throws.

The second half of the season was a complete flip-flop for Martinez as his rushing YDS/GM fell from 97 to 41, YDS/RUSH down to 3.3, and he did not find the endzone on the gound. His passing numbers however were much better as his completion % increased to 57.9%, TD/INT ratio increased to 3.5:1, and he threw a pick every 80 passes rather than every 22 passes during the former part of the season.

While his numbers were not outstanding later in the season, Martinez improved greatly passing the ball as the season progressed. Some of the credit for this improved most definitely has to go to Rex Burkhead as he carried the rushing load for the team later in the season while Martinez focused on passing.

Braxton Miller**

And cue the talks of multiple Heisman’s coming from Columbus (coincidentally the same city I sit in as I type this). Actually, Braxton had quite a successful freshman campaign, with numbers very comparable to Denard’s. While Denard was more effective running, Miller actually had a better TD/INT ratio (we all know why from The Game) than did DR, albeit with a smaller sample size as OSU threw much less than Michigan.

Braxton improved substantially as he gained more experience towards the end of the season, seemingly in every category besides rushing. Overall, a solid but not spectacular season for Braxton and even though I hate to admit it, he will likely be a pain the ass for the conference for the next few years.

(All of the numbers for my statistics came from cfbstats.com)

(*OOC STATS INCLUDE BOWL GAMES)

(**MILLER DID NOT PLAY IN 2ND GAME OF SEASON)