The Shifting Odds On The Michigan Wolverines

Submitted by jamiemac on

[Ed: you know what? I'm just going to bump this instead of linking it again.]

[Quick JCB plug: We’ve got you covered on all the weekend action, including a great preview on the stellar prime time schedule tomorrow night from SteveY and a breakdown of the Evil Empire vs Little Brother match tomorrow afternoon. More to come later today including a deeper look at the Nebraska-Wisconsin showdown and, of course, my weekend card of picks, so bookmark us already!]

October is hours away. And so is the start of the 2011 Big 10 conference season. Out of conference games are more or less over and we're about to begin an historic Big 10 season, one with Nebraska in it, two divisional races and a winner-take-all championship in, of all months, December. This will be season to remember, but will Michigan be a factor?  The numbers from September are in, and the early math points to the Wolverine's showdown with Nebraska in November being for the division title.

But we've all been here before with Michigan looking good on the verge on the conference campaign only to see the September numbers wither with the changing seasons. I have a feeling this year will be different, but that doesn't mean the Wolverines will run the table or boss their division. My prediction for the division has always been its pretty mediocre and that we'll see three teams tied atop at 5-3. Michigan has as good a chance as anyone to hit that 5-3 mark. My other prediction was if they beat ND, they would be one game better through ten games than a year ago, so that's 8-2 heading into the nasty double date at the end of November with the Huskers and Ohio State coming to town.

There are plenty of storylines to be had in tomorrow's league opener for Michigan against Minnesota. The Little Brown Jug is on the line, fer gawd's sake!! We get another data point in the evolution of the new offense. How does Minnesota look with the whole Jerry Kill situation? Can these young, new playmakers on the Michigan defense continue their progression. And, of course, in my world, can Michigan cover the point spread. Generally speaking, I don't consider covering the line or not a true storyline for the masses. But in Michigan's case this season, I do. Don't forget, the Wolverines didn't cover a single point spread in Big 10 play a year ago. That's only the fifth time in the last decade that any FBS school didn't cover against the closing game in all their league games.

The paranoid ninny in me is naturally not happy that Michigan is the biggest chalk on the Big 10 board in the wake of last year's 0-8 ATS mark and 4-20 ATS mark the last three years against the Big 10. Obviously part of that is Minnesota's serious sucktitude so far this season. But some of it is indeed a changing mindset towards Michigan within the gambling community. Back in the summer, not only was nobody betting on Michigan, but everybody and their pet cats was betting against the Maize and Blue. However, a month into the season, Michigan has showcased some defensive competency, they still have Denard Robinson and, well, the rest of the Big 10 just looks terrible. The result? A major shifting of the odds in favor of Michigan. The Wolverines used to be 8th in line on the board with Big 10 Championship odds, checking in at +1600. But with the shifting Big 10 odds, today they are third in line at +800, behind Wisco and Nebraska. And when books re-released lines for future games on Monday, Michigan, which had been an underdog in almost every Big 10 game available, is now the favorite in almost all those games.

[ed: specifics after the jump. Thanks for being terrible, Big Ten.]

This doesn't mean folks are putting their tin can money on the Wolverines, but its a signal of a different tune. In the peak of the summer, in order to get equal money on both sides, oddsmakers had to give the Wolverines a boatload of points. But, with four games of evidence in the books, in order to get equal money on both sides, oddsmakers have to give Wolverine foes points. The ironic thing is we can all agree that Michigan isn't even close to peaking, yet their performance, combined with the rest of the Big 10, has altered the betting mindset. Rather than continue to preview tomorrow's game, lets instead take a look at Michigan's future games and the new pointspreads attached to them. The only game not on the board is the Homecoming tilt with Purdue in four weeks.

(Lines from Sportsbook.com)

at Northwestern, 10/8

August Line: Northwestern -1; Current Line: Michigan -3

This line has done a full 360. Originally opening as Michigan -3 back in June, the wave of Anti-Michigan sentiment eventually bowled this line all the way to NW -3. Over the course of the summer, the line slowly shrunk, eventually settling into the NW -1 for the last several weeks of the off season. I contend this is a major trap game for Michigan. As long as Persa is on the field, the Cats have a puncher's chance against anyone in this league. But it's a trap game for two reasons. Michigan's horrible history over the last generation in its first road game of the season. I hate teams going on the road after beginning the season with four or five home games in a row. Its just a setup of for failure. Remember how much Michigan struggled in 2007 against a worse Northwestern team? That was their first road game after four straight to start the season at home. The other reason is that its a notorious look ahead spot with rival Michigan State and their unprecedented three-game winning streak in this series slapping every Wolverine in their face. Sharps have made money for years betting against teams in look ahead spots like this. Clearly, we're all watching the Illinois-Northwestern game this weekend to see if Persa actually does play and just how well he looks in his return.

at Michigan State, 10/15

August Line: MSU -4.5; Current Line: MSU -3

The only future line where Michigan remains an underdog is the state championship match in two weeks. The line was once as high as MSU -7, but by the time a majority of online books finally released game of the year lines, it was MSU -4.5. And, its pretty much stayed there until this slight adjustment down to a field goal spread when lines we re-released on Monday. I have tons of thoughts on the game that I will develop as we get closer to game time, but here's a sneak peak. Despite the scoreboard looking rout, I thought Michigan, at least on offense, played MSU better a year ago than they did the prior two seasons. For the first time in a number of years, Michigan might have an advantage in the trenches in this match, especially our Defensive Line against their woeful Offensive Line. And, I know this wont go over well, but I would trade defensive rosters with MSU. I would have changed in a heartbeat back in July. But as October approaches, I am less bullish on that statement because, well, the Wolverines appear to be doing something odd and unexpected: They're finally developing playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. So maybe that doesn't count as a legit statement because events on the field have--thankfully--changed my mind a bit. I still like MSU's defensive roster a lot, but Michigan appears to have enough defense of their own to make the Spartans pay for the gross weakness they have on the offensive front. A year ago, a feeling of dread washed over me when I saw one of our freshmen, in this case Cullen Christian, matching one on one with an MSU receiver, and the play resulted in a long, back breaking TD to open the second half. I wont feel the same sense of dread if I look out there and see Blake Countess on an island. From the defensive hole Michigan has been in, this counts as impressive progress. I'm still putting this game in the 'L' column for Michigan, but like almost every game I feel so much better about the team's chances than I did in the summer.

at Iowa, 11/5

August Line: Iowa -3; Current Line: Michigan -3

Iowa is going to be an interesting storyline this season. They are completely revamping their identity. At least, if they want to win this season, they need to revamp it. Gone are the days that the Hawks could play conservative offense and let their mean, nasty defensive front, that specialized in making quarterbacks look bad, take over games from there. This season, they're rebuilding on defense. From what I saw against Pitt and Iowa State, this defense looks about as shaky as Michigan's the last two years. They have about as many 2-star recruits in the starting defensive lineup as 3-stars and while the Hawks have mined recruits like that into legit Big 10 players, they still haven't done that with this corps just yet. Their linebackers look slow and their defensive front looks average instead of dominant. But, they can light you up on offense with that passing game. There aren't many better WR duos in the league than Marvin McNutt and Keenan Davis. They will be a huge test for the young and still developing Michigan secondary.

at Illinois, 11/12

August Line: Illini -3; Current Line: Michigan -1

I wont lie. I don't understand the line movements behind the future Illini games. They've been about the most impressive team in the league this month outside of Madison. Yet, as I pointed in my Big 10 column at the JCB earlier this week, all the lines are going against the Illini. In addition to the 4-point swing in this game, the Illini have ballooned from +6 to +11 in their home clash against Wisconsin later in the season, while they've shrunk from 9-point chalk to 7-point chalk against Minnesota. That last one is a head scratcher. But so too is the line shift in the Michigan game. I don't understand why oddsmakers moved the number at all, let alone shift it four points to make the Wolverines chalk. I think most would agree this road trip will be harder than the one in Iowa City and that's probably a fan mindset that's changed since August. We have an improved defense in Ann Arbor, but the Illini have been a terrible matchup for Michigan recently. Michigan just hasn't stopped this offense, giving up 45, 38 and 45 points in regulation the last three years. I think the Illini have had 10 different 100-yard rushers against Michigan in that time. I didn't look that one up, but I am sure its right.

Nebraska, 11/19

August Line: Nebraska -5.5; Current Line: Michigan -1

Did Nebraska lose a game, and I forgot to notice?  That's the only way could understand a 6.5-point swing in this line over the last week or so. Of course, the Huskers haven't lost a game, but I still don't know what bettors could possibly be seeing to force such a radical shift. Could I see the line shrinking to -3 in favor of Nebraska? Absolutely. Michigan looks improved. Nebraska hasn't looked dominant. But, we're still talking about a Michigan program that has been terrible money burners for three years running. I have a hard time imagining a flock of Wolverine money coming in on this game right now to force the oddsmakers hand so strongly. However, here's the dirty little secret about Nebraska. They are exactly like Michigan. Their offense? It's Taylor Martinez running and a bunch of moon balls in the passing attack. A year ago, the Huskers had a legit 3-headed rushing attack. This year, it's just a two-headed attack and Rex Burkhead, the tailback, isn't exactly a gamebreaker. Basically if Nebraska cant get a 40-yard play somehow of out Martinez, they just don't move the football that well down the field. Their passing game's reliance on chuck it and pray seems to be more notable than Michigan's. I actually don't feel I'm going out on a limb saying that from a personnel standpoint Michigan has an edge over Nebraska at QB, WR, RB and Oline. And while they have those famous Blackshirts on D, they've looked very vulnerable against the run in games against Fresno and Washington. The Wisconsin Badgers this weekend against the Huskers will bring in a much better rushing attack than those teams. And so will Michigan come November. I haven't talked myself into Michigan yet on this game, but I do feel much better about it than I did a month ago.

Ohio State, 11/26

August Line: OSU -2; Current Line: Michigan -3.5

This line movement I understand. Kind of, at least. The Buckeyes had been installed as underdogs over the summer in every big game they had on their slate. The lines in both the Nebraska and OSU games against Michigan have shifted more than 5 points during the course of the first month of the season. I can understand the OSU movement because they look very shaky, almost losing to Toledo, getting woodshedded by Miami and just looking like a shadow of the Evil Scarlett and Gray Empire we've come to despise and resent. Another thing to consider with this line is that it originally opened as a pick 'em when it was finally released and bet to OSU -2. Every other game they put on the board for Michigan began with them as an underdog, but this one didn't. So, its not that odd to see the line come back to even or even slight Michigan chalk. But, man, I'll believe a Michigan win over Ohio State when I see it. On one hand, the gap still feels pretty wide between the teams. On the other hand, everything is lining up for Michigan in recent months in this rivalry. The only thing missing is a result on the field. The line suggests that oddsmakers now assume the betting public will expect said result. Please don't be a tease.

Comments

profitgoblue

September 30th, 2011 at 11:15 AM ^

I just don't understand how Vegas can have Michigan as the underdog of only one game the rest of the season.  I guess when you break each game down and the opponent's weaknesses I understand the resulting line.  That said, it just doesn't make sense on the whole.  Its always difficult to win at Kinnick Stadium and Nebraska is a top-10 team.  I'm just a layperson but I don't agree with the lines in those two games.  Nebraska is a 9 out of 10 on my Ace fear scale and Iowa is up there at a 7 or 8.

 

Drenasu

September 30th, 2011 at 11:40 AM ^

I recognize that the line is not the same thing as our chances to win, but setting that aside for a moment, it's hard to believe that our toughest game is at Michigan State.  I like our chances to win that game a lot more than I do to beat Nebraska - at least as things stand right now.

Maize_in_Spartyland

September 30th, 2011 at 11:58 AM ^

I want no part of the Northwestern game until I see what Dan Persa does this Saturday.

Iowa is down this year, but I agree, I think there is a false sense of optimism for that game.

I really don't get the Illinois game, either.  The Illini are much improved and could be an L, especially on the road.

I'm interested to see how Nebraska plays tomorrow.  I don't expect them to win, but if they can keep it close, they might be able to learn from any mistakes they make and exact revenge in the Big Ten Title game.

bluebyyou

September 30th, 2011 at 4:33 PM ^

With a couple of the teams that are in our upcoming schedule, how at this stage of the season can you tell how good they are? We don't play Wiscy, but their schedule pre-B1G was comprised of four cream puffs.  Maybe they  will live up to their press clippings, but it is hard to tell. That's the same story with Nebraska - easy non-conference schedule.  As for the odds, I just don't see why they have changed either.  

I started out thinking 7-5 or 8-4 and know I am starting to lean towards 9-3, but really want to reserve that until we play MSU. I figure that if we find a passing game we are going to beat one of MSU, OSU or NEB, but we will lose one along the way that we thought we would win. If the last three years have taught us anyhthing, it should be don't put games in the win column until the contest is concluded.

It's all about the passing game and the continued improvement of the D.

Blue Durham

September 30th, 2011 at 11:23 AM ^

action confined to the Ann Arbor area?

Favored against Nebraska?  Favored against Ohio State?  And I am a little wary about all of the away games, given we wont play our first one until next week.

But given all that, and the current state of the Big Ten, I do think Michigan is most likely to go 5-3, with 6-2 more likely than 4-4.

MGlobules

September 30th, 2011 at 11:32 AM ^

real potential competition in every game that follows. We're not likely to win 'em all. As a former RR guy, I have to say that I'm pleased with the progress on D. Over the next few weeks we'll see whether a) Gorgeous Al has been playing his cards close to the chest, b) is a truly inspired play-caller, and/or c) is smart/flexible enough to keep Denard in the shotgun.

Likely it's a mix of all the above elements, but I like us to be competetive in every game, and believe that's what we can legitimately hope for in this, Hoke's first year. 

Maize_in_Spartyland

September 30th, 2011 at 12:15 PM ^

Thanks for the post jamiemac, as always, love your work.

Northwestern - I'm holding off until I see what he does against the Illini.  If he's back to his old form pre-injury, he should have a pretty good game.  And if he does, something tells me betting Michigan against a veteran QB with the first road contest of the year isn't a wise choice.

Michigan State - I'd take State in this one.  Yes, Sparty has a weakened offensive line, but Cousins is still a good QB.  As I said before with Persa and on the road, I fear this one is a loss, and Sparty will cover.

Iowa - Home team is 4-2 in the last 6, with the average MOV favoring the home team by roughly 2 points.  I like James Vandenberg at QB, A LOT.  I'm chalking up the loss to Iowa State as a rivalry game, and nothing more.  The way Iowa beat Pittsburgh is impressive, even if the Panther's only impressive win to date is South Florida.  I'd take Iowa here, with the points.

Illinois - This one completely baffles me.  Personally, I think the Illini have been more impressive to date.  With games against Northwestern and Ohio in the next three weeks, we'll learn more about them.  I think with their schedule, they have the potential to go 10-2 (they avoid Nebraska, MSU, and Iowa); especially with the favorable conference schedule (Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, and Minnesota on the road - teams went a combined 9-23 in conference play last year).  The losable games they do have are all at home, facing two weakened teams (Northwestern and Ohio) and two teams they have had decent success against, in Michigan (2-2 in last 4 meetings) and Wisconsin (1-3 in last 4 meetings, 2006 was a 6 point loss).  I'll take Illinois, my only hesitation being that Wisconsin is the week after the Michigan for them.  The Illini have a bye week before Michigan and it is a pretty big game for them.

Nebraska - Their defense has been subpar, certainly not up to the Blackshirts standard.  I'll hold off on this one until I see what they do against Wisconsin.

Ohio - I liked Michigan as a dog in this one, especially with Bauserman at QB.  With Braxton Miller now under center, they game concerns me a bit.  I want to see what Braxton Miller does against Sparty (and a good defense), before I pass judgment.

 

Bodogblog

September 30th, 2011 at 12:22 PM ^

Should be on the front page

But doesn't the Western game explain a bit of the Illinois drop?  Bettors are like investors, at least I assume they are, and investors despise few things more than uncertainty.  I don't have any idea how good or bad that team is.

Brightside

September 30th, 2011 at 3:44 PM ^

I have always wondered how much weight LV puts on the fanbase of a team when setting the odds...  Anyone know how and if they account for this?

Logic says that most fans bet on their team to win...  but is that enough of an influence to move the odds?

AlbanyBlue

September 30th, 2011 at 4:09 PM ^

Michigan is always overbet, and I think these line moves are a bit of an overcompensation to reflect that. Implicit in that view is the assumption that a whole lot of anti-Michigan money has been put down on these games, and the book is simply trying to balance things. So you have that idea, coupled with the feeling that tons of Michigan money will be coming. Adding to that, you have Michigan covering against SDSU last week. Lots of factors in play here.

Getting points with Iowa is tempting, but I never bet against Michigan anyway. It's either take them or pass for me.

Highflowing

September 30th, 2011 at 5:07 PM ^

Thanks for the interesting piece jamiemac.  

 

I find it a little scary to be favored in the Nebraska game specifically, but I am also weary about vegas favoring us at Iowa, at Illinois, and at Northwestern.  Since we haven't played a single road game to this point, this truly doesn't make sense to me.  

 

We're all Michigan faithful here, and we've seen what has happened on the field and over the last several years.  So wouldn't you all agree that it'd be smart to bet against Michigan in quite a few of these games?

jmblue

September 30th, 2011 at 9:16 PM ^

I don't understand the line movements behind the future Illini games. They've been about the most impressive team in the league this month outside of Madison.

Hold on. I know the score-comparison game isn't an exact science, but compare our performance against WMU with Illinois's. They escaped with a 3-point win against a team we probably would have beaten by 30+ if the game hadn't been called. As for us not stopping the Illini offense the last three years, well, who did we stop defensively the last three years?

jamiemac

October 1st, 2011 at 6:18 AM ^

For the record, I took NW +10 vs Illinois today.

--Not sure this will explain it better, why I labelled Illinois more impressive. We're talking about outcomes, things that have happened to make possible bettors think differently from August. While I dig whats going on in Ann Arbor more so than at Illinois, I think the general public still has doubts about the D bigtime and OH NOES DENARD CANT PASS and dont forget the last two years. So I dont think MIchigan has impressed enough to move lines. As for Illinois, despite their struggle last week against one of the top-3 teams in the MAC (IMHE) compared to Michigan's ease....isnt really the only true difference between the two efforts the Ryan/Herron play in the defensive red zone in the second quarter, something to think about.........anyway, Illinois has impressed to move lines, at least I expected, because nobody thinks of Illinois ever, so if they look spunky early in the year, I just assume some odds may shift in their favor. Also, this Illinois program is something like 12-4 ATS so I thought Illinois had been 'impressive' enough for nuetrals to say hey lets get back on the bandwagon and thus shift lines. It was really just semantics and could have been worded better.

--But none of their lines shifted in their favor. So maybe most people are not impresed, therefore casting obvious doubts on the opinion I raised in that segment. I guess thats the point I really wanted to hit home is that everybody is talking up Illinois, they're in the blog poll, one of the few league teams we've really only said good things about yet the oddsmakers and betting public arent impressed, so your  instincts are shared by many

--I cant belive it took half a day for somebody to call me out on the Illinois = bad matchup comment based on exactly what you said. Really? Team X's offense was a bad matchup for michigan's D? Is water still wet? It is? Phew. I should have just cut that sentence or two out and just let the 10 RBs got 100 yards on us quip speak for itself there

Regadless good points all around, jmblue.