Over at The Only Colors (the only MSU blog Brian links to on the left) they've been attempting to do UFRs for MSU. They aren't of top quality, but may be worth looking at.
Scouting MSU at Wisconsin
|kickoff||to the 19||Winston looks a little thick to be a return man|
|1st n 10||Ace||1||about as vanilla as can be, off tackle zone dive|
|2nd n 9||5W Trips right||inc||dropped on the crossing pattern|
|3rd n 9||Shotgun slot rt||inc||no one home, MSU got away with a hold|
|4th n 9||Punt||penalty||kick catch interference, must be that famous dantonio discipline|
|1st n 10||Doube Tight rt, slot left||inc||playaction comeback, open but underthrown|
|2nd n 10||offset right||3||counter left|
|3rd n 7||SG, 4W, Double FL left||inc||greg jones with pressure|
|4th n 7||punt||to the 3||nice hangtime|
|WTF?||torrent missing some gametime, must be a replay|
|1st n 10||offset rt, motion slot rt||8||rollout to the field, man open in the zone|
|2nd n 2||offset lt, motion double TE||-5||corner blitz blew up the pitch sweep|
|3rd n 7||4w||7||crossing pattern, generous spot|
|1st n 10||?? Split FB, RB is 9 yards deep||5||counter tre left. Almost like a power iso with a pulling guard|
|2nd n 5||offset rt||-4||Worthy gets good penetration|
|3rd n 9||SG,3w offset lt||2||crappy draw|
|4th n 7||Punt||touchback||really slow to get the punt away|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot lt||8||White on the stop route on the rt into the boundary|
|2nd n 2||I right||1||zone dive left, vanilla, vanilla, vanilla|
|Welcome to the jungle being piped in…eeeewwwww|
|3rd n 1||fuckyou espn||QB sneek||didn't see the play|
|1st n 10||Ace||inc||PA rt, bootleg left, underthrown out n up|
|2nd n 10||SG 4WR||5||Bubble screen rt, dell was shaken up on previous play|
|3rd n 5||SG 5WR, near slots||inc, penalty||missed white over the middle, but PI called|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot lt||2||1 step hook|
|2nd n 8||3WR, slot lt||intercepted||whoops, thrown right to him, complete misread|
|1st n 10||offset rt||15||QB naked boot run|
|1st n 10||3WR offset rt||5||offtackle rt|
|2nd n 5||I slot left, motion I rt||8||offtackle rt|
|1st n 10||Slot left||13||end around to the left|
|1st n goal||I left, 3TE, motion right||4||Dive|
|2nd n goal||Double Tight lt, offset right||TD, penalty||playaction to th TE at the endline on a slant, but negated|
|2nd n goal at 16||4WR, twins right||TD||TE on the seam, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 36||Winston has good speed once he gets going|
|1st n 10||4WR, trips right||-1||zone dive left, vanilla, vanilla, vanilla|
|2nd n 11||SG, slot right||14||draw trap right, Caper bounces it outside|
|1st n 10||I left||12||5 step drop, comeback, vanilla|
|1st n 10||double tight, I left||14||offtackle rt, vanilla|
|1st n 10||I left||8||hook on the right, cousins does a good job of lookin left at snap|
|2nd n 2||I slot left||3||offtackle right, vanilla|
|1st n 10||motion, slot left||inc||badly overthrown|
|2nd n 10||offset left, near WR||inc||badly overthrown, should have ran it, the flood had taken everyone away|
|3rd n 10||SG, slot left||TD||jump ball fade to dell who made a nice adjustment, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 31||looked like there was a lane, but he got tripped up|
|1st n 10||shift, offset right||penalty||Playaction, post man caught the ball, but negated|
|1st n 10||offset rt, twins left||5||FB in the flat|
|2nd n 5||one back, strong left||18||MSU blitzed, picked up, playaction TE in left flat|
|1st n 10||offset right, slot right||inc||underthrown on the out route|
|2nd n 10||1 back, 3WR, twins right||17||Trap right, Clay bounces it for a big gain|
|1st n 10||1 back, motion, offset left||8||counter trap left|
|2nd n 2||I slot left, motion rt||0||QB boot, is stuffed|
|3rd n 2||1 back, twins left||16||comeback on the outside, #9 for MSU missed tackle|
|1st n goal at 6||4 WR, trips right||TD||TE hooked at the goal line, low ball, nice catch, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 24|
|1st n 10||I left||0||Nichol, power option left, nicely defended|
|2nd n 10||I right||12||8 yard hook to the left boundary, Dell|
|1st n 10||I right (looks illegal)||intercepted||jump ball on a fly to the right sideline, terrible throw, safety in position|
|1st n 10||1 back, 3WR, motion strong rt||inc||boot right, field side, good coverage|
|2nd n 10||Shift, oneback, h-back left||penalty||encroachment, more dantonio discipline|
|2nd n 5||motion offset right||7||TE (lined up at FB) in the flat, same play as before|
|1st n 10||motion, offset left||4||offtackle trap left|
|2nd n 6||flanker right||penalty||bad formation, illegal motion|
|2nd n 11||SG 3WR, twins right||penalty||missed on the comeback, but sparty got PI, held the jersey|
|1st n 10||motion offset right||1||offtackle trap rt, MSU finally adjusts and shuts this down|
|2nd n 9||1 back, 3WR, flanker left||inc||ball batted on what was going to be another comeback route|
|3rd n 9||SG, 3WR, twins left||15||rub route cross to the left|
|1st n 10||fuckyou espn, twins right?||5||rollout to the right (field), comeback was wide open|
|2nd n 5||twins left||inc||fly route was wide open, overthrown|
|3rd n 5||4WR||6||hook to the boundary slot|
|1st n 10||3WR, twins left||17||In to the boundary side (right) and a facemask|
|1st n goal at 1||I 3TE||inc||play action, overthrown, both crossing TE were wide open|
|2nd n goal at 1||I, 3TE||TD||Inside Trap, clay just bowls in, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 21|
|1st n 10||SG, Slot left||1||draw trap left, Wisc DT's blow it up with penetration|
|2nd n 9||SG, slot left||-7||Cousins sacked, had the flat left, but didn't see it.|
|3rd n 17||SG, slot right||penalty||Dell went out, and caught the ball for an apparent first, but negated|
|4th and 17||Punt||to the 47||punter went down, no flag, hit by own man|
|1st n 10||SG, trips left||inc||ball dropped, a little low, to the left, nickle blitz was picked up|
|2nd n 10||SG, split, flanker left||inc||another blitz, another pickup, and another drop|
|3rd n 10||SG, split, flanker left||inc||pressure, overthrown, anderson beat the right tackle|
|4th and 10||punt||at the 15||fair caught|
|1st n 10||5WR, trips left||17||Dell on the out|
|1st n 10||slot left, confusion||inc||threw inside of the slot on the cross out|
|2nd n 10||5WR, trips left||3||boundary slot ran a flat|
|3rd and 7||4WR||inc||commenters ripping on the sparty offense, haha, overthrown|
|4th n 7||Punt||to the 28||low kick,made two men miss, but the first came back to make tackle|
|1st n 10||twins right||4||Dive left|
|3rd Quarter||21-7 wisconsin leads|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 15||nice coverage|
|1st n 10||I, double tight right||13||offtackle trap right|
|1st n 10||I tight, left||6||Iso left|
|2nd n 4||I doulbe tight left||fumble||pitch sweep, bad hands by the RB|
|1st n 10||Ace||2||Zone dive left, cutback right, vanilla|
|2nd n 8||I left||15||counter trap left, winston busts through some arm tackles|
|1st n 10||I slot left||4||Iso right|
|2nd n 6||I right,||-2||Sweep right, run blitz blew it up|
|3rd n 8||split, flanker left||inc||overthrown to the right, white was wide open on the far side|
|4th n 8||FG||FG|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 26||short kick|
|1st n 10||Double Tight left, motion||6||counter dive, nice cutback|
|2nd n 4||Offset left||2||inside trap|
|3rd n 2||I tight right||5||counter play action, TE flat|
|1st n 10||I tight right||2||Trap right|
|2nd n 8||1 back, twins left||6||trap left, the DT whose guy pulled just missed a TFL|
|3rd n 2||Offset, strong left||4||student body left|
|1st n 10||Double tight left, offset right||3||counter tre right|
|2nd n 7||I doulbe tight left||3||counter tre left|
|3rd n 4||strong I right||penalty||PA to TB in the flat, but negated by downfield block|
|3rd n 3||? Uhh..wingbacks?||3||counter trap left|
|1st n 10||Strong I, double tight left||5||Dive left|
|2nd n 5||Strong I, double tight left||0||Counter trap left|
|3rd n 5||SG, 4WR, Left side near stacked||7||just a simple out|
|1st n 10||I left, shift, I right||0||Offtackle right|
|2nd n 10||1 back, twins left||inc||deflected at the line|
|3rd n 10||SG twins left||inc||pressure, overthrown, both tackles were beaten|
|4th n 10||FG||FG|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 30||Winston is a load, but he doesn't have the acceleration|
|1st n 10||1 back, double tight left||9||PA Zone left, TE moved like he was pulling but went to the flat, first non vanilla play|
|2nd n 1||slot left, motion ace,||12||Dive left, weak play, but roken arm tackles|
|1st n 10||Strong I right,||27||PA TE on the seam, nice pass, nice catch|
|1st n 10||Offset right||3||Trap left, play was stuffed, but winston falls forward for a couple|
|2nd n 7||slot right||TD||play action post, amazing catch by cunningham, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||to the 31||hesitated coming out of the endzone|
|1st n 10||motion, offset right||45||PA fly, nice pass, stutter and go|
|1st n 10||strong I left||1||counter tre left|
|2nd n 9||strong I right, motion left||3||offtackle right|
|4th Quarter||wisconis 24-17|
|3rd n 6||4WR,||TD||slot guy beat man coverage and a nice pass in front of the safety, PAT good|
|kickoff||kickoff||penalty||returned to the 34, penalty to the 7|
|1st n 10||3 WR, split flanker right||10||FB in motion, ran an 8 yard hook|
|1st n 10||SG, 3WR slot right||inc||underthrown on the seam|
|2nd n 10||4WR||13||hot slant to the slot|
|1st n 10||I left||fumble||Iso to the right, more penetration by the wisc DL|
|1st n 10||Strong I right||2||off tackle left, MSU got penetration|
|2nd n 8||I right, shift, offset left||7||Off tackle right, nice cutback, great blocking on the backside|
|3rd n 1||Strong I right,||TD||PA, blitz was picked up, no one coverd the TE, PAT good|
|That's his third TD!|
|1st n 10||Ace||5||Zone dive left, vanilla|
|2nd n 5||split, flanker right||inc||overthrow|
|3rd n 5||penalty||false start|
|3rd n 10||SG, 3WR, slot right||35||nice pass beating the deep zone|
|1st n 10||SG, 3WR, slot left||5||TE ran an out|
|2nd n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||inc||tipped, nearly intercepted|
|3rd n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||inc||held the ball too long, good coverage, overthrown|
|4th n 5||SG, 3WR, slot left||8||boundary WR ran a slant, took a big hit but held on|
|1st n 10||?? Fuespn, SG slot right?||inc||barely overthrown cunningham on the deep post|
|2nd n 10||SG, ace||inc||white dropped the 5 yard hook|
|3rd n 10||SG, 4WR, trips left||inc||wanted the screen to the left (boundary)|
|4th n 10||SG, 4WR||sacked||that's the ball game.|
|1st n 10||Strong offset right||5||missed handoff, QB kept for positive yards|
|2nd n 5||offset right||17||Clay just running through arm tackles|
|1st n 10||Strong offset left||2||just grinding the clock|
|2nd n 8||Twins left||7||counter trap left|
|3rd n 1||Strong I right||4||off tackle left|
|1st n 10||Strong I left||2||counter tre left, wisconsin is starting to look as vanilla as MSU|
|The difference is that they have a 21 point lead|
|2nd n 8||Offset right, motion||0||QB kept it, maybe a busted play|
|3rdn n 8||4WR, stacked right||7||rollout right, hit the out route, good tackle to prevent the first down|
|4th n 2||Strong offset left||0||pitch sweep left|
|1st n 10||5WR trips right||penalty||false start|
|1st n 15||5WR trips right||27||Dell, Wisc is in umbrella|
|1st n 10||3WR, slot left||6||slot out|
|2nd n 4||F .U. espn ??||25||Nichols runs a QB keeper for a nice pickup,|
|Looked like max protect, 3 men in the pattern|
|1st n 10||4WR||inc||tipped|
|2nd n 10||SG 3WR slot right||inc||jump ball to dell, hung up in the air|
|3rd n 10||SG 4WR||intercepted||jump ball to the endzone, msu got away with more holding|
|1st n 10||Strong I||1||run left|
|2nd n 9||offset right||6||run right|
|3rd n 3||??||1||QB boot, held it, just killing clock here|
|4th n 2||punt||to the 37|
|1st n 10||SG slot left||20?||Sims is wide open against the prevent zone|
|1st n 10||SG ?||inc||overthrow on the flag route|
|2nd n 10||SG 4WR||20?||deep out is open|
|1st n 10||SG 3WR||TD||Soft zone and missed tackle, WR dove over the pylon, 2pt no good, sacked|
|kickoff||onside kick||wisconsin recovers|
|1st n 10||run|
|2nd n 14||run|
|who cares||punt to the 9 yard line|
|1st n 10||SG 5 WR||91 TD||how the hell does that happen?|
|What was the point spread?|
|kickoff||onside kick||wisconsin recovers|
- MSU's offense was BOOOOOORRRRRRRIIIIIINGGGG!!!
- Which was strange since I saw them run several trick plays against CMU (CMU!)
- Winston is a bruiser, but not very nimble.
- Caper has good strength and speed and likes to bounce it outside
- Blair white had a horrible day, but he looked pretty acrobatic against CMU
- Their TE Sims looks like a decent pass catching threat
- Their offensive tackles were getting pushed around all day
- Dell is a pretty good jumper, but he seemed to be suffering from the same landing problems as the ND receivers. Nearly broke his own collarbone.
- Cunningham is a fairly athletic receiver too
- Cousins did not have a good day. Way too many overthrows.
- My impression is that he's not really that good at reading defenses.
- Of course he is just a sophomore (but tate's a frosh!)
- If they only run zone stretches and dives at us all day, ezeh and mouton might actually end up with plusses in brian's UFR
- Nichols is not much of a passing threat. He's got a decent arm, but his instinct is to run. And let's just say he doesn't have Denard's speed.
- He also didn't look that great on the one option play they ran, but maybe Wisc just had it defended well.
- Greg jones was causing havok all day, but Wisc did a good job neutralizing him with short passes and extra TE's to block.
- This is a trap running team. There is almost always a pulling lineman
- They have about 5 running plays but
- they run them from about a hundred different formations
- And they use a ton of motion and shifts, so it's hard to determine what formation they're in until late
- Which is important, because they run to strength nearly 90% of the time (estimate)
- Their TE graham had a great day.
- Toon looked like a very serviceable receiver.
- This will be a "line em up and smack em in the face" game when we play them. I'm hoping will campbell is ready for some major minutes by that time.
- so, worry if we've got defenders running around looking like they're lost before the snap.
So what's it mean for this week?
I've seen 3 of sparty's games and they looked worse than normal against Wisconsin. They seemed emotionally lethargic. It wasn't really as close as the final score. Wisconsin made them pay for silly turnovers. Even the play calling was ridiculously vanilla. It was like watching a game from 1993.
Sparty will be up for us this week. Expect them to play much better. Expect them to have special trick plays, that they were saving for us. I think our front 7 will be able to slow down their run game "enough", but yes, I'm worried about the corner-not-named-warren.
What worries me most is that it's in east lansing, where nefarious shenanigans have been known to take place. I forsee a pretty high scoring game. But with the good guys coming out on top thanks to Tate's general awesomeness, and Denard's teleportation powers.
I say Michigan 41- Sparty 34
I was actually going to say something about that site. The scoring of the DL, LB and Secondary is nothing like what Brian does here, so don't go skipping to the charts and expect it to match up to Brian's UFRs here.
As for the actual UFR, it is definately worth looking at. It should give some insight into how MSU is faring on the offensiv and defensive sides of the ball.
NOT GOOD ENOUGH
Completely understand about not wanting (or being able) to spend too much time on this stuff. Still, could I ask for some more player names and yard lines so we know where they are on the field? Thanks...
Nice breakdown. I think MSU fans are realizing that while Brian Hoyer certainly was not a great QB, he brought some stability to the position that neither Cousins nor Nichols have provided.
I've said the same thing to Sparty fans I like to torture...and they are still clueless about it.
...when the coaches can't settle on one QB. Most of us have advocated ending the QB carousel and giving the reins full-time to Cousins.
Lot of time it takes to do this
theonlycolors.com is a good blog i read daily. They modeled (and named) their UFR after Brian's and include a lot of the same metrics. Worth checking out:
MSUFR Defense at Wisconsin
MSUFR Offense at Wisconsin
Whatever you read, thanks goes to BlueSeoul for taking the time to create his own UFR.
I wonder what the differences are going to be between Brian's UFR and the MSUFR next week... how much bias will there be, etc.
i was thinking the exact same thing, it will be very interesting to compare. Although, if I'm not mistaken, the UFRs don't really grade out opposing players...
I write the Offense UFRs. (Signup glitch prevented me from using CPT Hoolie here; long story). One thing I've learned is that they are more difficult to do correctly than it appears. I put about 10-12 hours into the reviews and I haven't even enabled videos yet. Coming up with worthwhile metrics is tough as well. Most difficult, as you can see from the above, is remaining objective (viz. "Must be that Dantonio discipline").
It's a work in progress. Brian is several years ahead of us in development and even he tinkers with the feature. Brian has been great and has provided us with assistance and encouragement.
On the MSU offense: Yes, it's boring. [Anything is boring compared to the UM Crazy Ninja Offense, which, speaking as a college football fan in general, is highly entertaining.] But it works: MSU is currently first in the league in total offense. But it's not been good enough to overcome the defense's inability to stop anyone.
Your blog is amazingly refreshing to read compared to other blogs out there -keep it up. but while you're here, I've got two questions for you:
1. How do you think your UFR will compare with Brian's (post MSU-UM game)? I'm not trying to insinuate that one is better, but rather I'm curious to see how much bias will show through from each side. While neither UFR grades out opposing players, I wonder if both sides will have more/less the same notes on the game despite the blinding fan goggles we all wear.
2. What's your honest-to-god prediction for the game?
Let me caveat by saying that I'm not one of the principals of The Only Colors, I just post there a lot. I like TOC because its tone is a lot more reasonable and hopefully more intelligent than the ES or SpartyMSU. (RCMB: hochhhhhhptooey.)
I am equally interested in seeing how my "MSUFR: Offense vs UM" differs from Brian's "UFR: Defense vs MSU", not only because he's a lot better at it than I am, but also to see how we view the same play from two different perspectives. I believe that in the UFR methodology there is an inherent observer bias, in that (for example) I am evaluating how MSU's offense executed (or failed to execute) the play while knowing already what the outcome of the play, and game, are. But it's all from the perspective of rating what the offense did. It would be a lot more work to hand out pluses and minuses to the other team's defense. I suppose at some point in the future you could have one commentator from each side both evaluating the same play simultaneously, but I wouldn't want to tackle that until more blogs started doing UFRs.
My honest-to-god prediction? Ugh. Both defenses are so porous, I could just as easily see 42-28 UM as I could see 37-27 MSU. What's interesting to me is the movement in the line: started at OFF, then UM -1, then MSU -2. As of noon today it's MSU -3. Wooooo direction of the line being right 67% of the time! (Or whatever it is).
That said, I'm very afraid of UM's Crazy Ninja Highly Entertaining offense gashing MSU repeatedly. Ok, 3 opportunities ((c) Brian):
*Over 1000 yards total offense combined.
*Last team with possession wins in another controversial finish.
My heart says "Go State". My head says "Michigan is going to run around, and over, MSU's defense". My wallet says "take the over."
I've checked it out and appreciate it for being a rational MSU site, in stark contrast to others like RCMB, Enlightened Spartan, or SpartyMSU. I just feel sad after seeing some of those sites.
Good God, man. Sounds like quite the labor of love. They are fun to read, though.
Excellent post. Thanks.
Thanks for the write up, informative and enjoyable to read. I fear the worst in East Lansing as well; The Wiscy game was their 'letdown' game and they will be full bore prepared for us this Saturday. Teams tend to take on the character of their coach and this one seems full of spite! It's gonna be a slobber knocker.
Basing my prediction on the Indy game, I feel it will be a high scoring affair but if you had asked me before that game I would of said that we would win something like 45-21; now I'm thinking it will be closer, say 45-35. Both scores dependent upon Tate's health; Denard has improved but there is still a significant difference between the two. If Tate is knocked out, can Denard lead us to victory? Who knows, if could be Denard's breakout game too; he isn't anywhere near his ceiling. I think it's going to be an exciting game, could be a classic.
A very big Thank You goes out to [email protected]; I asked him to do the msu vs. wisconsin game for me for exactly this purpose.
Very happy someone came through with a UFR on this. :)
on a side note, watching wisco's receiver nick toon always makes me miss ren & stimpy.
defense is really bad. Other than Greg Jones, they are horrible. They tend to overpursue, take bad angles or are slow which is a good thing for Michigan because their offense will kill them IMO.
The charts look nice, but not good enough...
one of the ancillary benefits of beating ND was that msu had to watch that footage all week before they later lost to ND. My biggest concern is turnovers. I thought msu defense had some pretty good blitzes but Wisc had an answer most of the time.
Can be up for this game all they want, and UM fans can be scaredy-cats and rationalize for Sparty all they want.
Bottom line is: the are just not very good, and are probably leaning towards being a bad team due to lack of talent; (gasp) youth and inexperience; and a so-so coaching staff.