With news reports continuing to expose more violations on almost a weekly basis, it may still be premature to estimate the types of NCAA penalties the Ohio State football program may ultimately face.  But with the information already available, it appears that the Buckeyes could be headed for some of the fiercest sanctions the NCAA has imposed in over twenty years.  Times have certainly changed, and medieval penalties like TV bans or the vaunted SMU “death penalty” are probably off the table.  But with major college sports seemingly on the brink of a plunge into lawlessness, the infractions committee is likely to feel enough pressure to impose sanctions at least as stiff as similar offenders from the past.  Here’s a look at some prior NCAA scandals with elements similar to the malfeasance in Columbus, which—if the infractions committee wants to be consistent with its past punishments—may supply some guidance as to just what kind of damage the NCAA cyclone will do when it finally touches down.

1. Free Shoes University

What happened:  A Las Vegas sports agent made cash payments to at least 9 star players on Florida State’s MNC-winning football team, and funded at least one “after-hours shopping spree” in which players received shoes, coats, and other gear on the agent’s dime.  This most famously included a 1993 excursion to a Tallahassee Foot Locker, which ended with four carloads of FSU players carting off $6,000 worth of merchandise.  As Corey Sawyer, one of the players involved, later told Sports Illustrated, “We just bought out Foot Locker, period.   At least half the football team was there.” 

Sanctions Imposed: One year probation

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  Pretty similar to Tatgate in terms of the numbers of players involved, the nature of the infractions, and the amount of money the players received.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) while there were some indications that FSU coaches may have suspected that players had received improper benefits and did not take prompt action, this was never proven, and there was absolutely no evidence of a purposeful cover-up like at OSU; (2) the free shoes scandal was not coupled with a “test-drive our cars forever” policy at a local dealership

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: much greater, both because the OSU scandal is substantially more egregious and because the NCAA was heavily criticized for the laughably weak sanction it gave FSU for an infraction involving “half the football team.” 

     2. The USC/Reggie Bush Scandal

What happened:  USC star Reggie Bush set up a “business” with a sports agent, through which members of Bush’s family received benefits, including cash and a house, estimated at nearly $280,000 in value.  This happened at the same time as a separate scandal involving USC basketball star OJ Mayo, resulting in a dreaded “lack of institutional control” charge.  Trojans head football coach Pete Carroll, who had encouraged sports agents to hire USC players for internships, was found to have known about the improper benefits.

Sanctions Imposed: Two-year bowl ban, loss of 10 scholarships for three years (30 total), four-year probation in football, plus forfeiture of wins and championships; one-year post-season ban, loss of 3 scholarships over two years, and recruiting penalties in basketball

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  Probably the most significant point of commonality is that the USC head football coach was aware of the improper benefits but did not report them, and may have had a hand in facilitating the infractions (similarly, Tressel may have steered players to the Kniffen car dealership and may have connected Terrelle Pryor to greenpalmed boosters like Ted Sarniak).  While not engaging in an OSU-style cover-up, USC also failed to satisfactorily cooperate with the NCAA investigators.  The USC and OSU scandals are also close in time.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) Despite rampant speculation that players other than Reggie Bush received improper benefits, Bush was the only football player clearly proven to have done so; (2) USC violations spanned multiple sports whereas OSU’s violations were concentrated in football*

*Of course, it is possible that the Jim Tressel violations could date back to Jim O’Brien era in Buckeye hoops (see: M. Clarett) ; also, a recent report suggested reporters from ESPN are looking into possible point-shaving activity by OSU players, probably in basketball.

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be:  About the same.  The USC sanctions seem to have established a new standard in the current era, in which TV bans (let alone the “death penalty”) are considered cruel & unusual.  The OSU facts are arguably worse, with an active cover-up and proof of widespread player involvement, but so if the NCAA finds the violations are limited to one sport then they might be less likely to drop the LOIC hammer.

     3. Michigan Hoops – Ed Martin Scandal

What Happened: Four Michigan basketball stars (Chris Webber, Mo Taylor, Louis Bullock, and Robert Traylor), and possibly a fifth (Albert White), accepted a total of more than $600,000 in “loans” from basketball booster Ed Martin—a former Ford Motor Co. electrician who also ran a numbers racket at Detroit auto plants.  Michigan coaches Bill Frieder and Steve Fischer allowed Martin access to the players and the program despite knowing of repeated instances in which Martin supplied or attempted to supply improper benefits to players or their families.  The NCAA learned of these violations through an investigation it launched following a 1996 roll-over car accident involving several players returning to Ann Arbor from a Detroit house party, when media reports indicated that UM had violated a rule against transporting a recruit (Mateen Cleaves) more than 30 miles from campus.

Sanctions Imposed: One year post-season ban, four years’ probation, loss of 4 scholarships over four years, ten-year “disassociation” from Webber, Bullock, Taylor, and Traylor, forfeiture of wins, championships, and post-season honors.  (Contrary to popular belief, the hiring of Brian Ellerbee was not an NCAA-imposed sanction).

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  (1) these scandals are remarkably similar in the nature of the violations and  in spanning long time periods; (2) the chairman of the NCAA infractions committee, Thomas Yeager, referred to the UM scandal as “one of the three or four most egregious violations of NCAA bylaws ever,” and the OSU scandal surely deserves a similar description.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) UM did not get caught in a secondary cover-up scandal; (2) whereas Michigan players accepted money from just Ed Martin, the OSU situation appears to involve multiple boosters and numerous sources of improper benefits (e.g., Ted Sarniak, the Kniffin car dealership, Fine Line Ink, etc.); (3) hoops vs. pigskins

 Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: somewhat greater.  The Ed Martin investigation dragged on for six years, the A.D. and all of the players and coaches implicated in the scandal had left by the time the sanctions came down—a factor that may have led to some leniency on the part of the NCAA; by contrast, the NCAA appears to be moving much more quickly in OSU’s case, and will likely impose the sanctions while delinquent players, coaches, and administrators are still in C-Bus.  This could change at the end of the 2011 season if, as is widely expected, Luke Fickell is replaced as HC by an outsider with a clean rep.  But this may be easier said than done for OSU administration if the players rally behind Fickell and turn in another 11-win season.  

     4. Alabama Football Recruiting Scandal

What Happened: Numerous Alabama boosters were found to have made large cash payments—many over $10,000 and one case $115,000—to high school coaches in return for steering recruits to sign with the Crimson Tide.  One recruit received the use of a car in return for his commitment to Alabama.  A booster was also found to have made cash payments directly to a recruit, but this violation occurred outside the NCAA’s limitations period.   The scandal, which involved conduct beginning in 1995, was exacerbated by Alabama’s status as a “repeat offender,” having been placed on probation in 1995 due to (former player) Antonio Langham accepting money from an agent and thus competing while ineligible during the 1993 season.

Sanctions Imposed: Two-year bowl ban, five years’ probation, loss of 21 scholarships over three years

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  The Alabama sanctions were the heaviest the NCAA had imposed on a football program, short of the death penalty, until the USC sanctions—and media reports (if you believe them) suggest the NCAA seriously considered the death penalty in Alabama’s case.  Yet, the Alabama scandal appears to have been even more egregious than the USC scandal.  This may indicate that the NCAA has stiffened its overall level of discipline.  Another point of similarity is that the Alabama investigation turned up evidence of gross violations (e.g., a $20,000 payment to a recruit) that were outside the NCAA limitations period; similarly, Tressel appears to have a well-documented history of misconduct that may not be admissible in connection with the present OSU proceedings (ahem, Clarett, ahem, hack, cough, Ray Isaac, ahem...).

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) Alabama was largely punished for allowing boosters to pay high school coaches, not for providing benefits to recruits directly (as the OSU boosters appear to be doing); (2) it is not yet clear what the NCAA will be able to prove regarding the extent of OSU coaches’ involvement in arranging or “not noticing” the receipt of improper benefits by players.

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: about the same.  See USC above.

     5. Pell Grant Scandal at The U

What Happened: Between 1989 and 1991, an “academic advisor” at Miami helped 50 or more athletes obtain over $200,000 in federal Pell Grants by submitting falsified applications.  Since the players had full-ride scholarships, the grant money went directly into their pockets.  In the wake of the scandal, SI called on Miami to disband its football program, and reported that “[f]ifty-seven players were implicated in a financial-aid scandal that the feds call ‘perhaps the largest centralized fraud upon the federal Pell Grant program ever committed.’"  The ensuing investigation also uncovered over $400,000 of other financial aid improperly paid to 141 football players, as well as other improprieties regarding a drug test policy.

Sanctions Imposed: One-year bowl ban, loss of 31 scholarships over three years, one-year bowl ban; also, the academic advisor who prepared the false applications was sentenced to three years in prison

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  While the nature of the infractions are considerably different, the end results are the same—large numbers of players receiving improper benefits having a relatively low cash value.  With the Miami case appearing objectively much more egregious than the OSU violations, the penalty ultimately assessed seems to suggest that the NCAA will not seriously consider scholarship reductions much above 30, or bowl bans lasting longer than one or two years, even for the worst offenses.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  At least with the OSU scandal, the players have who took money and cars from willing boosters and memorabilia dealers appear to have violated only the NCAA bylaws, not criminal laws.  In the Miami case, the funds were fraudulently procured from the U.S. government.  Even with the botched cover-up, it is unlikely the OSU scandal will eclipse the Miami scandal in terms of sheer criminality.   Also, the central role of Miami’s “academic advisor” lent a degree of plausible deniability to the coaching staff and athletic administrators—OSU’s folks are unlikely to enjoy that luxury.

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: milder.  Tressel may have been a liar and a cheat, but at least he does not appear to have allowed university officials to steal public funds to pay his players.   

Oh, and since I know how much the mgoblog community likes charts:

Prediction for Ohio State (based on the above): 3-year bowl ban, reduction of 11 scholarships per year for 3 years (33-scholarship loss total), 5 years probation, forfeiture of wins and trophies for all games in which Terelle Pryor competed after he began receiving improper benefits

Some forseeable things that could aggravate the sanctions: (1) the NCAA amplifies the penalty due for having allowed it to happen less than five years after the OSU basketball scandal; or (2) violations in other sports (such as the rumored point-shaving in hoops) are uncovered; or (3) OSU fails to clean house after the 2011 football season