Say What? Defensive Optimism

The experience that these DB's are getting this year will pay dividends in future seasons. 

As long as Denard can handle the pressure (physically and psychologically), we'll win more than we lose. However, even though it's fun to watch, it's kind of a shame he has to be superman every week to give us a chance to win.

Excellent post.  I think this - "What I am suggesting is that there is a point where defensive ineffectiveness reaches a saturation point in a Bend-Don’t Break strategy that debunks a dark fear in all our hearts that teams will score more and more and more." - states well an idea I've had for a week now but have been unable to articulate this well.  Well done, sir.

I agree with the overall premise that our defense is probably a 30-35 point defense regardless of who we play...there is just a limit of the amount of time you have and points you can score if you are forced to produce using long drives.

But, that assumes that things stay relatively the same.  I think the formula is very different if we start turning the ball over (possible) or if Denard goes down for an extended period of time (also quite possible).

I'm really excited for the future of this defense with the young talent we have. Right now it's hard to like this defense but the fact is that we are getting W's and that's the point of the game. These next few years we have Cam Gordon, Kovacs, Floyd, Martin, RVB, Demens, Roh, and Carvin Johnson back on this defense. Add guys like Jibreel Black, Marvin Robinson, Troy Woolfolk, (depending on his health and recovery) Will Campbell, and hopefully a few good recruits here and there, we will have an experienced and talented defense on the field. We lose guys like Banks, Rogers, Moundros, Ezeh, and Mouton but that's a far less number than we return. Their senior leadership will be missed and especially Mouton's numbers but someone will step up. It is frustrating this year but the fact is that they are keeping us in games with key stops. We can argue about the scheme and coaching another time but with this core of players we will return and hopefully gain with recruiting will be huge for us in the future with our offense putting up big points.

but also have no reason to think they will do much better, AND we have good reason to think the offense will do worse (against quality defenses) what does that say for the outcomes in the weeks to come?

When an 80-yard drive simply isn't enough, GERG goes the extra mile to serve you a tasty, mouth-watering 99-yarder that will keep you coming back for more. GERG also serves delicious 4th-and-15 appetizers for half-off on Happy Hour Tuesdays.

I'm sorry, but I just don't think the TOP argument holds much water.

Here's why:

You can only score once per possession. If our opponent gets the ball first, then it doesn’t matter whether it takes them 8 minutes or 8 seconds to score their first TD. By the time we get the ball, the score is still 7-0 and we run the same offensive plays once we do get the ball.

Generally, a low TOP is thought to be a bad thing because it usually means you’re going 3 and out or just not finishing drives. But when your TOP is low because you’re scoring quickly, that concern isn’t present. In fact, there’s a benefit to scoring with a low TOP since it means you’re scoring with fewer plays and not having to show your entire arsenal of plays in order to get the job done.

There’s a semi-legit argument that opponents longer drives wears out our defense, but that doesn’t make it an “anti-Denard potion”, and the fact is longer drives wears out their players on offense as well.  

The TOP will be less unbalanced against teams like MSU, PSU, Wisky, Iowa etc. I, for one believe that although these types of teams are better defensively than UMASS or Indiana's of the world, I still doubt that they have the team speed on D to shut us down. We will get our against anybody we play. However, the drives will start to resemble the UCONN and ND drives.The methodical, time consuming stop us if you can drives, as opposed to the big play kill shots that we had against Indiana. The evening out of the TOP will help our D a ton, as even our D, gets a few stops here and there. Our D looked eve more rancid against Indiana because our offense scored 42 points in 18 minutes. Stick any defense in the world on the field for 48 minutes of a football game, and you will have some ugly stats.

That picture of our defense is nightmare fuel... thanks for that.

Those scoring drive percentages will continue to be high because the M defense doesn't even challenge the opposing offenses.  With the likelihood that our offense will be slowed by good B10 defenses, the outlook is distressing.   So, our defense MUST improve or we're going to end up with yet another losing record in the B10, because I doubt our offense is going to average 40+ points per game in the B10. Hey, I hope I'm wrong.

And here is an important point to remember: with each passing week, the opposition gets to analyze our team's weaknesses and prepare more and more focused game plans to ATTACK those weaknesses.  Both offensively AND defensively. The result is that as the season wears on , teams will be more and more effective against us. 

That's what happened last year and count on it happening this year.   There are many ominous indications that this thing IS going to get worse.

This was a good read and I agree with what you're saying.  RRod/GERG seem confident that we'll score 40 a game and are happy to give up 25 or 30 points to the opposition.  I just can't wait until we have corners and safeties who can make play after play on the ball.  Hoping this happens next year as everyone knows our schedule is set up to make quite a run

Mostly concur. Strongly agree that Chappell was great, and probably the best we will see this year. I am curious about several things, however.

1. How much of a dropoff do you think we see with Tate in as QB? While I would prefer Denard by a mile, I actually think that our backup is good enough to keep Michigan in any game.
2. What about our defense vs. a strong running game? Does it matter if a team can "run" all over us (vs. passing.)
3. I still am concerned about special teams, and think that if we are basically playing "even" with someone, special teams may tip things in our opponents favor.

All in all, however, I think our defense is doing the best they can, and it will only get better, assuming no catastrophic injuries.

Here is the biggest reason for optimism, broken down:

- IU and UMass were huge underdogs, or at least felt like it, and therefore approached the game the way underdogs do.  That is, do crazy things that offenses don't usually do, and pass a lot.  The likes of MSU and Iowa and such are coached by stodgy old Big Ten coaches confident in a Bo-like manner: ours can beat theirs if we just play football.

- "Just play football" means running about as often as you pass.  This defense can stop the run with a reasonable amount of success, and it can especially stop the run if the run isn't especially imaginative because Barwis.  Look what it did against IU's run with eight men in coverage.  Dantonio, Bielema, Ferentz, et al. are not the kind to feel the need to come up with a devastating aerial assault the way IU has to just to survive.

- "Reasonable amount of success" is good enough as long as the offense continues to have the potential to score on one play from literally any yard line.

This post gives me more hope then any other has.  Forcing a lot of long drives gives more opportunities to get stops or turnovers and we can use as many chances as we can get.  I do hope that as the year continues we can trust our DBs to stop giving such huge cushions and challange them to throw maybe even one deep ball a game.
Also, I can't hardly believe they only scored on 55% and 42% of their possessions respectively.  Watching the game it feels like it's closer to 80% or 90%.  What's left of my remote thought they scored on most of their drives too.

In the vain of optimism that was put forth in this post, consider this. RR and GERG are controlling the TOP exactly as planned. They know we will score on more than half our possessions, and an average possession for us seems to be about 2-3 min (needs confirmation). So, we will average 40ish points per game with 8-10 possessions. If the opponent drives take twice as long and score on 40-50% of the possessions, that is a recipe for wins. I'm not saying it is the case, but if RR and GERG have thought about this, it might just be their plan to bend-don't-break to the tune of 6-minute opponent drives.

Love this post.  I think I'll sleep a bit better tonight.  This year I don't care if every game is 42-41.....as long as we have the 42!

I think Michigan State, from a defensive perspective, is going to be the toughest test we have left so this is the game I'm most worried about for our defense.  The reason why is the fact that they are so balanced offensively.  Other than Notre Dame, we haven't really played a truly balanced offense yet.  Between their running game and Cousins, plus the receiving options they have, it's going to be really tough to stop them if they have it going early.  

Although Wisconsin's offense is similarly scary, Tolzien just has not been playing that well. Stanzi has played pretty well but is capable of making mistakes.  Ohio State's offense has not looked scary at all.  I'm more worried about what those defenses will do against Denard, but defensively we will hopefully be dealing with less of a challenge than this week.  

I think this week is really going to tell how much better we are than last year, and if Sparty is still Sparty. If we can win this, basically anything left is winnable.