RR Recruiting Strategy
Disclaimer: This may have been talked about before. And this may be such an old and tired subject, that just seeing the title causes many of you to groan. Then seeing Meeechigan Dan causes even more of you to groan. I will keep it brief; just killing time.
RR appears in our eyes to be Hugh Jackman getting excited about dates with fat girls when he should be holding out for dates with Adriana Lima or Marisa Miller.
I would suggest that Hugh's plan is to never be without a date ever again.
Now that this bad analogy is over, I will translate. I think RR is shooting for a 25 man class, perhaps as high as 28. He wants raw material. Last year, he learned that the danger of only asking Marisa and Adriana out is that if both say no, you are sad and alone. At this stage, I think he is falling back on his tried and true WVU recruiting strategy: finding system guys that are diamonds in the rough and lots of 'em. He knows that, with Michigan gravitas behind these offers, he can stockpile as many as 15 three star system guys while he waits for the supermodels to call him back. He knows there will be attrition and that he can easily accommodate a class of that size without even sniffing Saban territory. He is not going to wait ever again (until success brings 'em a running, like with Texas recruiting, if that ever happens) to fill holes in his roster. Every hole will be filled with guys he feels can contribute before Sentreal or Corey or Gholston pull the trigger.
In other words, last year while basking in the glow that the Michigan name opens all doors, he perhaps said, "Jay, don't offer that guy yet, we're waiting on Pearlie" or "Bruce, let's see if we can get so and so in the fold before you make that trip to Maryland for that one kid."
The danger, of course, if that a position looks filled, maybe someone is scared away. But his advantage is that with the lower-rated guys in the fold first, what stud is going to be scared away?
Finally, I would say that this is not a permanent strategy, but a two-year strategy. To get the roster loaded with bodies while success on the field comes. Once gridiron success is combined with the Michigan name and the recruiting effort of this staff, RR can ease back a little on the system guys.
Am I making lemonade out of lemons?
We are in the most BORING time of year if you're a college sports fan, especially college football, so any conversation is fair game.
Anyway, I think I agree with what you're saying. If you closely examine RichRod's classes at WVU, it seems as though he had a throw-everything-against-a-wall-and-see-what-sticks mentality. He recruited a million 2 and 3 star RB's, WR's and Slot guys over the course of 5 or 6 solid recruiting years, and out of those emerged Steve Slaton and Pat White, Darius Reynaud and Chris Henry, and perhaps a few others. Those guys were all low-rated recruits and turned out to be stars in that offense.
Now at Michigan he is recruiting a million 3 and 4 star guys at the same positions. It will be interesting to see how this develops on the field in the next few years.
Granted it's not like anything I've just said hasn't been said before, it just seems as though people tend to forget that stuff when they actually see the recruits coming in. People seem to expect that since RichRod is a "name"-coach, and Michigan is a top destination for football players, we should be pulling in recruits like Florida or USC. I think that can happen eventually, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. Besides, it took Tressel a good 5 or 6 years before he really started bringing in a lot of elite prospects, and look how successful he has been, and was before.
No question, there has to be an element of the super studs wondering if RR is going to fail, especially with the negative recruiting planting this seed. Super studs do not want to be part of rebuilding or, worse, failed rebuilding. RR is going to have BECOME elite a little bit WVU style - with lower rated system guys.
Not sure if I buy your theory completely, though it sums up my high school dating career...sitting around waiting for the hot girls to break up. I think RR has stated his philosophy clearly just no one wants to listen. RR has made it clear he expects total dedication from his players. He wants his players fast and physical and nasty. For this you need to be maniacal in your approach. The Pahokee and Florida guys are examples of this... raw talent and a deep hunger. Most were 3 star guys but many wowed when given the chance in spring practice or All Star games. RR wants the most talented guys sure, but if their attitude isn't where he wants it I think he walks to the next guy. If you look at many of the recruits bios you see a similar refrain. Nasty, plays with a fire etc.... You see this with Tate he has buried himself in football. Many of the fans faith in RR has wavered over the last year, but I have not. I like what I see and believe we will see positive signs this year and a very impressive team in 2010. The competitive enviornment Barwis and RR set combined with the Michigan tradition are going to be unstoppable in a few years. I truly believe that and I am making a list of all the naysayers. A. Ware you just made the list.
That's possible, but does it necessarily correlate that high ratings = less hunger and dedication? I think that even if his primary characteristic is the hungry, nasty player, he doesn't want to wait. He doesn't want to get burned anymore as far as depth on the roster is concerned.
I think it is universally accepted that RR is recruiting players that fit his system. Most of his recruits have the following characteristics:
Speed- all positions from WR to OL. RR is looking for players that that can move-quickly.
Hunger- players that love football and want to learn and work hard.
My problem, and I think a problem many people may have, is as follows:
Are there not 4* and 5* players with the characteristics RR is looking for? Why has RR not targeted the 4*+ players that are fast and hungry? For example at RB Vincent Smith and Tony Drake are 3*. They may turn out (and I hope they do) to be excellent backs in RR's system. Smith certainly has looked great in practices and the spring game. The problem is there are 10 apb 5'11/190 or less rated higher than both of them. Are they not fast enough or hungry enough?
Basically, there are 4* and 5* guys that would fit RR's system, why not take them?!
This comment hits the nail on the head. Coach has explained his philosphy. He wants kids who are coachable and hungry, guys who will work their asses off and kill themselves to win. Remember he is trying to make a culture change here. Part of me wonders if he would shy away from a five star prima dona type without the work ethic who expects to play simply because they are talented. When the culture is right that player will come to UM expecting to work his tail off because that is the new Michigan way. So you get guys on the edge who are smaller, less highlyu regarded and you coach them up. Remember...Coach's average class rating was in the 30's nationally yet played in teens interms of the polls, one of the biggest "coaching up" ratio in the nation.
The new motto, forgive me if it quoted wrong, "We are the best conditioned, hardest working team in the nation." Welcome to the new Michigan. The new Michigan man is not necessarily the most talented or the highest rated...perhaps they will start giving out extra stars for work ethic. UM may end up being the highest rated "lunch bucket" team in the nation.
any coach would shy away from the five star prima dona type with no work ethic who thinks they should play based on talent. Screw those kinds of kids.
Yes everyone wants to pay for a winner, but you also hear a lot of kids who want to play immediately. In some programs that is not going to be possible and I think that will again be the case here in a couple of years.
Some of the recruits are going to be lower rated because of the schemes being run on both sides of the ball IMO. Slots are more playmaker than WR and smaller RBs fit in nicely. The deathbacker position and hybrid safety/LB position can also be filled with tweeners. Odds are that players recruited for these positions might be only 3 star because of either lack of ideal size or not being blazing fast.
The classic system guys that many have talked about being a player more valuable to RR than to traditional programs. Agreed.
...just gave birth to Marko Jaric's child.
So I have no hope?
I think he is taking a Deep Sea Fishing approach. Right now he is trolling the waters. He has got multiple lines out the back of the boat as he drives the boat over the various schools of fishes he sees. He is looking to see which fish is interested in the bait on his hook and if any are, he reels them in whether they are big or small (1-3 stars). At the same time, he is on Shark patrol. He is also waiting to see if there is a Shark (4-5 star) in the water that is looking for a little snack. He keeps his little fish on the bait for a while in hopes that the Shark will come and finish them off. Now he has got a prize in his class.
Good. I think he wants to make sure he has a class like Column 1 as opposed to Column 2 (sorry about the spacing):
Col 1 Col 2
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I agree with this MDan. I think you also need to add how this benefits the recruits too. Kinnard and Williamson were on NO ONE'S radar until they committed. Now, if they are subtlety dropped ( I doubt it though, Kinnard is Bell/Toussaint's former teammate and Williamson is from Harding, OH, plus is FAST) then other teams are aware of them and know they rated a Michigan offer/accepted commit. For someone like Tony Drake, this can't hurt.
But in essence this is based on 1 recruiting class (last years) as 2008 had RR just trying to maintain the players committed.
Michigan could have taken a full 25 players (perhaps 27 with early enrollment), and got 22. So this change in recruiting approach for this year's class is based on these 3 (or 5) open slots from last season. I am not sure how compelling these few slot being left open is.
But during the recruiting season, I do think that the de-commitments and many soft verbals (is he coming or isn't he) played havoc with his recruiting.
It could be argued that some of these open slots were due to players de-committing from Michigan, a few fairly late in the recruiting cycle. It could be just as easily argued that this is driven by decommittments and that RR is not too worried right now in getting more verbals than slots available, knowing full well there will be a few de-commitments and perhaps an unexpected loss (McGuffie) that opens up an unanticipated slot or two.
If he does have a few more verbals than slots, soft verbals interested in taking visits elsewhere can be dealt with a little differently.
One major factor that you have to keep in mind IRT Michigan's recruiting this year is that UM has a new defensive coordinator in place after essentially firing the last one after a single season. Even though all the position coaches remain in place, that kind of thing has to place havoc on recruiting for the defense.
I suspect that may be one of the reasons why he might be having trouble attracting the really top-level defensive talent this season. If the team shows a more coherent and improved defense under Greg Robinson in 2009, then that should change the overall outlook.
It actually looks like the secondary recruiting should be in pretty good shape this year, so the primary questions surround linebacker and defensive line--particularly at the tackle position.
As for me, I'm still in a wait-and-see mode as the recruiting season progresses. There's still a football season in the fall and quite a few months left until LOI signing day.
People also have to realize that these 3 star players with offers from Virginia, Pitt, WVU, Boston College etc will jump at major offers to a program like Michigan.
For the 4/5 star players with offers from Florida, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, the decision process isn't as easy. Signing day is 8 months away and a lot is going to change from now until then. People just need to relax. We're building depth, as attrition has hit us hard in key places.
You're saying that Richard the Rodriguez is tossing out offers left and right because:
A) We have room
B) He wants to stockpile the roster with guys that fit his system, regardless of star rating
C) High-profile players have nothing to fear of the lesser recruits who might otherwise be filling their spots because, in theory, they are better than the existing player
Yes, I agree with this.
I had to type it myself because my brain is fried after learning of Adriana Lima's pregnancy. I literally cannot believe she met, dated, married, and had consensual unprotected sex with Marko Jaric. Almost nothing could be more unfair.
Nationally, few coaches have gotten worse press over the last year than RR for off-the-field stuff (99% of it undeserving), and when you add in the craptacular 08 season, followed by more staff turmoil, additional player departures, and the continuing bad-mouthing or outright disregard by the national media, I think that it's amazing they're in on as many high-profile guys as they are.
Obviously the 09 season is going to be huge. I would think that maintaining the recruiting momentum after another losing season would be a far more difficult task than he's had to face so far. Most recruits are going to consider a single 3-9 season an outlier, especially given Michigan's tradition and RR's past record. Follow it with a 5-7 season, and all of sudden the inevitable negative recruiting by our competitors is going to look much more persuasive.
My problem is that every time I look at the schedule I have a hard time seeing more than 5 victories.
Any post mentioning Marisa Miller is a great post.
on a bad argument, but found I agree with you. I think the statement "he is falling back on his tried and true WVA strategy' is true. And that worries me. But based upon last year, he may not have any other choice, as pointed out above.
I think, in a loose analogy, that RR is trading down in the draft. Going for numbers in the middle rounds rather than using his 1st round pick. Now, in many ways, this analogy sucks because he can't trade anything, except maybe effort and where he places his focus and he may still get a first rounder (Sentreal). Clearly, he's going for numbers, not in a helter-skelter way, but in a way that maximizes raw material for his system. And to think of it, I always want my NFL team to trade down...I always am more excited with three 4th rounders, four fifth rounders, etc.
I am beginning to concur. If you watch the AMP piece on Rivals for Christian Pace, they comment about why he is a 3 star vs. a 4 star. They think he is phenomenal plays nasty, but in the end they give 4 stars to kids who have a chance to be drafted, and while they think Christian may be a terrific fit for Rich Rod, he probably does not have the frame to be able to put on the weight in muscle that will get him drafted in 4-5 years.
Why are we inundated with 3 star kids? Because 260 lb linemen work in Michigan, but don't get drafted. 5'6" WR work in Michigan, but don't get drafted. etc. While it is still hard to get past picking up every midget that runs a 4.2 in the country to be a slot WR, I'm starting to see how it may translate in to wins in the grander scheme of things, and once we get to 10-2, BCS game every year, and a winning string against Ohio State who cares!
That said, this little experiment HAS TO WORK. If it does not, it will take 3 years minimum to fix, because these kids would not fit 70% of coaches systems out there.
Your last paragraph scares me very much.
me very much!
It's why, I think, that Adriana Lima chose Marko Jaric over me.
Nice post. Obviously, most of these guys will probably never see the field as starters, but many will make contributions to the scout team and special teams.
Another small point is that since graduation rates do count, is it advantageous to have a core of guys in each class who don't leave early or transfer before they graduate (and who bring up the average). Not that that's a reason to take someone, but there has been a lot of attrition over the last few years. They are student-athletes after all...
that the "student" part comes before the "athlete" part. If I can get off topic a big, that's what bothers me about oversigning. I don't like the idea of screwing kids who might be "bad" players out of an education. Believe it or not, some kids use football as a way to set up their life in the "real world." I also hate when people say "oh, well kids on academic scholarships need to meet certain standards, so should the players." This basically says athletics should be place on the same level of importance as academics, which just shouldn't be the case. Many of these kids couldn't afford the education otherwise. The football scholarship possibly makes the lives of many of these kids.
Today's Detroit Free Press has an article indicating Pace will enroll at Michigan next January. See http://www.freep.com/article/20090604/SPORTS06/906040474/1054/SPORTS06#…
In the article, his head coach indicates he will probably go up in weight to about the 290-lb range once he gets to college. I have no doubt his physical conditioning will be superb as he works with Coach Barwis, although I also expect he'll redshirt his first year. Ultimately, he's going to be looking at a position in the interior line--either guard or center.
I think in some cases you maybe right, but in others you're wrong. Yes, RR definitely wants to upgrade the speed at UM and in particular with the slot receiver and rb. In a lot of cases, the guys that RR is going after for the slot (small size, very fast) aren't going to get high ratings no matter what they do on the field in high school cause of their size. Thus, you are going to maybe see a lot of 3 star guys there.
However, look at some of the guys RR has commits from and is targeting (using rivals):
1. Devin Gardner - 4 Star
2. Seantrel Henderson - 5 star olinemen
3. Brennan Clay - 4 star rb
4. William Ghoston - 4 star de
5. Ricardo Miller - 4 star wr
6. Jerald Robinson - 4 star wr
7. Marvin Robinson - 4 star lb
Over the course of RR's tenure at WVU, he had something like 1 5 star and 10 4 star recruits in all of his recruiting classes. The caliber of player that RR is targeting at UM is for the most part higher then the caliber of player he was targeting (or at least getting) at WVU.
RR is doing fine for 2010. Heck, Carr usually had a handful of 3 star recruits in his classes, and really, just about every school has a handful of 3 star recruits in their classes.
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