Rivals/Scout & Underrated/Overrated Players

Submitted by blueloosh on
This post is an extended follow up to a comment from Tim in a prior post on the Rivals 250: "There's no such thing as an 'underrated' guy to the people who do the rating. They're just rated where they are." That made me laugh, and on its face it is undeniably true. But I'll explain. A player can be underrated or overrated by a single recruiting service because the services have regional and team-specific sources, but then make national pronouncements. So a regional group may believe a player is a top 100 guy but fail to convince everyone else. Hence that kid is rated 221 or something while local affiliates maintain he is much better and "underrated." Tim surely knows this better than I, but it is worth remembering: Scout, Rivals, ESPN, etc. are not monolithic entities, one-man shows (does Lemming actually operate that way?), or some mysterious unseen force that gathers all data in a computer and spits something back. It's a room full of guys arguing for the players they're high on. They do not render settled, uniform opinions when they rate comparatively. I agree it would be stupid if Rivals published a Top 100 and in that same publication declared a player too high or low. (If so, move him up/down.) But the most knowledgeable writers and scouts--the local affiliates--for Rivals may continue to publish "Rivals" opinions stating that a guy should be rated higher and get more respect. Most of my reading takes place on that local level, so I will read that Rivals guys in NY think Mike Hart is no 3 star and is being "underrated." Cameron Gordon with Scout last year is another example that comes to mind. I do not mean to say a kid is clearly underrated if Tom Beaver or Josh Helmholdt thinks he is better than Scout or Rivals says. But in general, if we get a kid from Ohio or Florida, I value the opinion of the sites for area teams. I think it is worth considering and harmonizing with a national rating. Boisture is a good example. He's a Rivals 100--but where do people within the state rate him? You factor in for team bias, but it is useful information. I continue to be excited about guys who have huge buzz locally, but can't convince the national office (e.g. Odoms, Gallon after his initial Rivals plummet). I would actually put Big Will in that category. And certainly Devin Gardner. I am always suspicious of hype coming from the fans and writers of the team receiving a commitment, but I like local hype. I think with area hype, smoke often points to fire. To say I expected Gholston or Anderson to be "underrated" is to say that what I had read to date suggested local evaluators thought the player was terrific but were having trouble convincing the national people. Clearly those two had their cases successfully made.

Comments

Seth

March 13th, 2009 at 2:03 PM ^

I've been through a few of these and I typically find that junior commits don't end up at the top of the national services' lists, regardless. Sometimes, a recruit commits so early, he never gets the national offers or the national exposure of a guy on the fence. And it behooves Rivals et al. to do this. They don't want their No. 1 overall prospect to be some guy with no suspense. They want the No. 1 guy to waffle between the five schools with the largest fan bases in the country, and make his decision two weeks after signing day. Naming Pryor top dog of 2008 worked out brilliantly for the recruiting services when his recruitment became a down-to-the-wire dogfight between the biggest rivalry in college football and Penn State. Their clicks went ballistic. Conversely, after Stan Edwards' son committed to U-M in late 1998 (for the 2000 class), when the Class of 2000 rankings were being made in '99, nary a peep was made for a legacy recruit who didn't even wait for a big list of offers. That's not saying that Fred Jackson's son is going to be a second Braylon, but it does suggest Rivals is more likely to overlook him than Ricardo Miller.

Tater

March 13th, 2009 at 8:18 PM ^

If this is done by region, it can tend to make many FL, TX, or CA players underrated, because each region can only get so many in. In other words, the system sounds like it equalizes the number of players in each region that "get in." That means that, by the sheer force of numbers, a four star from MI or OH might not be as good as a three star from FL. A look at the NC's for the last ten or fifteen years will tell you that most teams that win the big one have predominantly southern players. This is no accident; I cannot begin to tell anyone from A2 how much better HS football is down here in terms of both skills and athleticism. The reasons are really inconsequential and can be debated ad nauseum, but the bottom line is that more and better athletes are coming from warm weather states, particularly FL, GA, and TX on this side of the country, and CA on the west coast. And that is why I am soooo excited that RR has a great pipeline into FL. I want to see UM play USC without feeling that I am watching a college team play an NFL team. I also want to see UM win the NC game soon. That isn't going to happen by, as little sister likes to say, "dominating instate recruiting." I love what they are doing right now: getting the elite kids out of MI but a lot more kids from other states, particularly FL. I know I harp on Florida athleticism a lot, but Miami under Butch Davis and Florida under Urban Meyer have done great by pretty much putting a fence around Florida and going out of state for a few recruits. RR can't put a fence around FL, but he can get plenty of kids from down here that are superior to the kids up north.