I'm not sure what to make of it, but thanks for pulling it anyway. I'm sure it'll come in useful down the line.
Rivals250 to watch 2012: A Brief Analysis
A few weeks ago there was a post that talked about the myth of SEC speed, and the larger issue of player quality among the different US regions. I don't know that I agreed with the article linked in that post, but it did bring up some interesting points. When I reviewed the Rivals250 watch list for 2012 , I had this in mind and began analyzing player location. Of course I didn't come up with anything other than very crude conclusions re. that particular issue, but I did find the exercise more generally informative about recruiting as a whole. I'll present it here, with the understanding that many similar analyses have likely been completed in the past, and those much better in findings and scope.
First up - where do they come from? Well, that's Texas, Florida, and California, and you knew that. The top 15 states in terms of the most R250 players:
- TX, FL, CA, GA, and LA together hold nearly half of the preliminary 250, with 124 athletes
- The Top 15 states, which you'll notice includes MI, hold 82% of the R250
- There are 34 states represented by the R250, and 19 of them have 5 or fewer players
- 16 states are not represented at all. Many of those are smaller states or Alaska, but some surprises: Kansas, West Virginia, Connecticut, and our new B1G member Nebraska have no players in the R250
- Iowa, Oregon, and Wisconsin each have 1 player
- Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana (home of ND, Purdue, and IU) have 2 players
- New York also has only 2 players - it's hardly the empire state for football, despite having an enormous population. There are probably answers to those player quality questions here, which likely involve player development and the popularity of football in the area. But this is just speculation.
In terms of which conference the players belong to, I made some crude assumptions: players play at home, and states are split according to popular custom. Re. the latter, the example would be MI and OH are 100% B1G states, but PA is 2/3 B1G and 1/3 BEAST (for Penn State and Pitt respectively). FLA is 2/3 ACC and 1/3 SEC, to recognize MYTM, FSU, and UF. Yes it's simplistic. It's also hard to do it any other way.
|*B1G = 15% of total|
So yes the SEC RULZ. They get there by taking 1/3 of FLA (11 players), and all of GA (15), LA (10), and AL (8). The PAC10 comes in second by virture of CA, AZ, and WA. ACC is third? That's what 2/3 of FLA, plus MD (and their 4 OLGC players) and NC will get you. B1G is fourth, more in a bit. B12 is fifth, made up almost entirely of 2/3 of TX (the other 1/3 went to OTHER), plus 3 kids from MO and 2 from OK. The B12 is Texas in every way it can be anything. BEAST is hopeless, but that's a pretty good abbreviation eh?
The B1G is made up of OH, PA, IL, and MI. Michigan isn't in a terrible position, but with B1G regions making up just 15% of the total, needs to be in FL, TX, and CA to be a national power. ND has nothing in IN and does just fine.
What about the position breadowns?
Not sure how this compares to previous years, but the good news is that there are 39 OL and 36 WRs - two positions of need next year. DEs are also very deep - OH has six alone (and that doesn't include Pharaoh Brown or Odenigbo). But also very few DTs or TEs. MI has only one of either, and unfortunately O'Brien looks to be vexed by the orange sun and questionable head coaching strategies of UT. OH has neither a DT nor TE, and only one each of LB, OL, and DB. We'd like to keep all of the MI guys who represent, yo:
|Kelby Latta||OL||Battle Creek, MIHarper Creek|
|Danny O'Brien||DT||Flint, MIPowers Catholic|
|Royce Jenkins-Stone||LB||Detroit, MICass Tech|
|James Ross||LB||Orchard Lake, MISt. Mary's|
|Efe Scott-Emuakpor||WR||East Lansing, MIEast Lansing|
|Terry Richardson||DB||Detroit, MICass Tech|
|*128 <200s (51%)|
- 86% of the R250 are 6'0" or taller - marry a big girl
- 51% of the R250 are in the 200s or lighter, surprisingly - it's OK to marry a thin girl
- Want a 300+ pounder? There are only 17 in the country right now (though they may grow over the year): 11 OL and 6 DTs - not enough of you are marrying big enough girls
No grand conclusions, but some interesting info. I haz spreadsheet, so questions are welcome. The data at Rivals is easy to copy and paste into Excel. I'll probably update this when it changes from watch list to the actual R250. Go Blue and that is all
good work. On the height list I think it would be interesting to see position players seperated from the lineman IMO. its obvious that the lineman are going to bolster the size in the weight and height department. minus the human Mrobot dorial green-beckman. ( my wish is for him to come to michigan or stay the fuck away from the big ten because there isn't a Dback at michigan that can cover that thing/man). just a thought but great work again and it was a good read.
Shouldn't the ACC get half of GA for GA Tech?
But from my admittedly limited knowledge of recruiting, it seemed like the non-UGA kids end up at other SEC schools. And the data supports that, albeit not completely and in a small sample based on recent history. In 2011, GT only pulled one 4* kid from anywhere (happened to be from Georgia), with the same result 2009 and 2008. In 2010 they did pull four 4* from Georgia, and in 2007 they took five. The argument could certainly be made for a 2/3 vs. 1/3 split in those years. But again in conventional terms, it seems like the other SEC teams take more than GT. The 2011 top kids in the state made their way primarily to the SEC:
|Isaiah Crowell||5 stars||Georgia|
|Ray Drew||5 stars||Georgia|
|Stephon Tuitt||5 stars||ND|
|Gabe Wright||4 stars||Auburn|
|Avery Walls||4 stars||California|
|Quan Bray||4 stars||Auburn|
|Jay Rome||4 stars||Georgia|
|Justin Coleman||4 stars||Tennessee|
|Justin Scott-Wesley||4 stars||Georgia|
|Malcolm Mitchell||4 stars||Georgia|
|A.J. Johnson||4 stars||Tennessee|
|Damian Swann||4 stars||Georgia|
|Chris Mayes||4 stars||Georgia|
|Corey Moore||4 stars||Georgia|
|Amarlo Herrera||4 stars||Georgia|
|Nick Marshall||4 stars||Georgia|
|Sterling Bailey||4 stars||Georgia|
|Jabari Hunt-Days||4 stars||G. Tech|
|Xzavier Dickson||4 stars||Alabama|
|James Vaughters||4 stars||Stanford|
|LaMichael Fanning||4 stars||Alabama|
I may be wrong, but I doubt the ACC with be 3rd when all is said and done. Yes, Florida State, Miami, and Clemson pull in great recruiting classes almost every year, but I doubt in the end it will add up as predicted.
Not saying the data is flawed - it's very good analysis - just saying I expect the ACC to choke.
Good job, yo
When are we going to get a d a m n committment?
Had the chance to see and hear Lee Corso speak on this subject 3 years ago. The demograhics of the South and Southern California will continue to drive college football recruiting. Michigan still needs to focus on pipelines into California and FL.
The numbers dictate where the players are located and the analysis of the OP helps to prove this point.
The reason that there aren't many 300 pounders is that most of them are fat asses who would vomit from stepping onto a football field not there aren't enough of them.
I'd be curious to see how that state-by-state Rivals breakdown compares to players who make it to the NFL. Maybe there's a state or two that consistently produces underrated players.
Also, a zip code analysis would make for a great map. Superimpose that on top of demographic data, etc. to show how race/socioeconomic status/musical taste correlates to football skill.
good stuff. STATS!
On this whole list... I want Terry Richardson so bad. Mattison should do everything that he can to get that kid here. I believe that if Richardson knows whats best for him, he will stay close to home and work with a Professional coach to help him get to the next level and that man is Mattison.
I don't think most NYC schools have football teams. Knock 10+ million people off the population of New York and the numbers make more sense.