Returning Offense of 2012 Opponents-Part 2

As promised, albeit a little late, here are the pretty, pretty charts, along with some analysis.

For reference, here’s the first part of the diary: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/returning-offense-2012-opponents-part-1

I make extensive use of Z-scores in this diary, which are simply standardized scores, representative of the number of standard deviations above or below the mean the raw scores are. These scores are helpful in this scenario because they allow us to quantify the difference between teams in each category of returning offense.

Here’s a good resource for more on Z-scores: http://statistics-help-for-students.com/What_are_Z_scores.htm

Now for the fun stuff:

I. Returning Contributors

Top 3 Teams with Most Returning Contributors

1. Ohio St.

2a. Air Force

2b. Purdue

2c. Illinois

2d. Northwestern

3 Teams with the Least Amount of Returning Contributors

1. MSU

2a. Notre Dame

2b. Alabama

Teams on the schedule return an average of 14 contributors on offense, σ=1.87. The minimum number of returning contributors is 10, while the maximum number of returning contributors is 17.

Ohio St. returns the most contributors on offense, returning 17 contributors, z=1.78. Air Force, Purdue, Illinois, and Northwestern all return 15 contributors, z=0.71.

MSU returns the least number of contributors, returning only 10, z=-1.96. Notre Dame and Alabama both return 12 contributors on offense, z=-0.89.

Michigan returns 13 contributors on offense, z=-0.36.

II. Rushing Offense

The formula that I used to calculate the total returning percent for each team’s rushing offense was to give a 33.3% weight to each of returning carries, returning rushing yards, and returning rushing TDs.

Top 3 Returning Rushing Offenses

1. Nebraska

2. Michigan

3. Purdue

Worst 3 Returning Rushing Offenses

1. Iowa

2. Alabama

3. Air Force

Teams on the schedule return an average of 63.68% of their rushing offense from their last year, σ=22.55. The minimum returning rushing offense returns 17.34%, while the maximum returning rushing offense returns 93.83%.

Nebraska returns 93.83% of their rushing offense from last year, z=1.34, and Michigan closely follows by returning 92.80% of the rushing offense from last year, z=1.29.  Purdue follows closely, returning 88.98% of their rushing offense, z=1.12.

The effect of the AIRBHG can’t be understated, as well, as Iowa returns just a meager 17.35%, z=-2.05, of their rushing offense from last year. Also of note is the loss of Trent Richardson for Alabama. Just 40.62%, z=-1.02, of their rushing offense returns from last year. Air Force follows behind Alabama, returning 47.60%, z=-0.71, of their rushing offense.

III. Returning Receiving Production

The formula that I used to calculate the total returning percent for each team’s receiving production was to give a 33.3% weight to each of returning receptions, returning receiving yards, and returning receiving TDs.

Top 3 Teams With Returning Receiving Production

1. Ohio St.

2. Nebraska

3. Purdue

The 3 Teams with the Worst Returning Receiving Production

1. MSU

2. Air Force

3. Alabama

Teams on the schedule return an average of 49.78% of their receiving production from last year, σ=21.08. The minimum returning receiving production returns 18.00%, while the maximum returning receiving production returns 86.10%.

Ohio St. is the clear cut leader in returning receiving production on the schedule, returning 86.10% of their receiving production from last year, z=1.72.  Nebraska follows by returning 77.64%, of their receiving production,  z=1.32. And in 3rd place, Purdue closely follows Nebraska, returning 75.41% of their receiving production, z=1.22.

MSU returns the least amount of receiving production, returning just 18.00%, z=-1.51. Air Force returns 29.35% of their receiving production, good for second-to-last place, z=-0.97. Alabama returns 35.02% of their receiving production, z=-0.70.

IV. Returning Passing Production

The formula that I used to calculate the total returning percent for each team’s passing production was to give a 25% weight to each of returning passing attempts, returning completions, returning passing yards and returning passing TDs.

Top 3 Returning Passing Offenses

1a. Illinois

1b. Nebraska

1c. Minnesota

1d. Michigan

Worst 3 Returning Passing Offenses

1. Air Force

2. MSU

3. Northwestern

Teams on the schedule return an average of 74.43% of their passing production from last year, σ=39.32, although the median returning passing production is 97.43%. The minimum returning passing production is 1.23%, while the maximum returning passing production is 100%.

Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Michigan return 100% of their passing production from last year, z=0.65.

Air Force returns a meager 1.23% of their passing production from last year, z=-1.86, while MSU is close behind, returning only 5.44% of their passing production from last year, z=-1.75. Northwestern follows behind both Air Force and MSU, returning 28.34% of their passing production from last year, z=-1.17.

V. Conclusion: Total Returning Offense

The formula that I used to calculate the total percent of returning offense was to give a 33.3% weight to each of returning rushing offense, returning receiving production, and returning passing production.

Top 3 Returning Offenses

1. Nebraska

2. Purdue

3. Michigan

Worst 3 Returning Offenses

1. Air Force

2. MSU

3.  Northwestern

Teams on the schedule return an average of 62.63% of their offense from last year, σ=21.67. The minimum returning offense is 26.06%, while the maximum returning offense is 90.48%.

Nebraska returns the most offense from last year, returning 90.48% of their offense, z=1.29. Purdue closely follows Nebraska, returning 88.06% of their offense from last year, z=1.17. Michigan comes in 3rd place, returning 80.81% of the offense from last year, z=0.84.

Air Force returns the least amount of offense from last year, returning just 26.06% of their offense, z=-1.69. MSU is right behind, returning only 27.85% of their offense from last year, z=-1.60. Northwestern returns 42.76% of their offense from last year, z=-0.92.

Any comments, questions, or constructive criticisms are appreciated. I hope to have the defensive version out in the next couple of weeks.

All stats are courtesy of http://www.cfbstats.com/.