Recruiting Thought

for this post. But, alas, I don't know how to cook.

This is a great post. IMO It sums up what I have been thinking, but I am too dumb and not articulate enough to be able to express it like that.

Here is my caveman way of saying it: RR and staff have never had this kind recruiting class pool POTENTIAL to draw from. When they get comfy with what the winged helmet* can bring in, you will see a very neat and exciting new level of the spread.

*This is not arrogance, just stating the fact that UofM is pretty good at bringing high level guys in comparison to the WV's of the world....you get my point. And now it is already redundant.

See, no matter how hard I try, I just can't state my point as clear as the OP.

Very well put. I love the reverse engineering of the frustration in the comments on the Drew Dileo Post. I think this is a very fair assesment of the recruiting practices at present state. If they will follow Wolverine32's advise and outwork the other guy while targeting a higher caliber player it will make for a very strong and exciting program!!!!!

I don't see how RR and company didn't realize that they could get better recruits here at Michigan. We went 3-9 last year and they still recruited a better class than they ever had at WVU. So again why are we going after kids that are just "FAST, FAST, GOOD HANDS, FAST". Last I checked Gallon was not a meh 3 star recruit with no offers. This was a huge stretch for a player where we already have a ton of talent for the current/previous class.

Yeah trust the coach, he has forgotten more about football in the past year than I will ever be able to amass in my lifetime but as someone who follows recruiting I hate this move.

I guess we all are trying to make sense of the current profile of our recruits - and there are several explanations. The OP presents one point of view. However, the way I see it, you don't get paid multiple millions a year to take a few years to realize what kind of players you can or can not recruit. I am sure RR and his coaching staff has a better idea than most (all?) of us amateurs regarding what kind of talent is available to them and what kind of talent do they want from that pool. This is their bread and butter, their livelihood - and they have much more information available to them than even the recruiting services - let alone fans like us.

Further, if a group of people were smart enough to figure out how to take advantage of a small recruiting base by designing a custom recruiting strategy and offense around that (as the OP suggests), I am sure they can also figure out how to best take advantage of the current larger recruiting base and what kind of offense will best suit this group.

Just hold on everybody - RR and his team are professionals with a proven record - who live, breath and eat football recruiting everyday. They know what they are doing - and as fans - we should hold judgment until we have more definite proof of a coach's ineptness (just in case we have an ND fan reading this - you know what we are talking about) over a period of time.

I have a different take. I think the staff immediately knew they would be getting better players and overestimated this. Last class, they clearly pursued top players and had success, but they got burned by having too few eggs in the basket. The decommitments were the clue that, although the Michigan brand would get better players, it didn't mean that the better players came easy.

When all was said and done, the class was too small. I think the reaction to the difficulties of recruiting and waiting on top talent has RR of the mind that, by God, he is going to pack this class and load up the cupboard with raw material. Sure Dileo and Drake may not be marquee players, but those players are still necessary. He is going to take 25 players in this class and he'll get his top talent...but he's going to make sure he has backup talent, too.

I never intended to imply that the coaching staff didn't realize they could get better athletes with more defined (less risky) potential. They clearly understand that. What I'm implying is that *they still believe Dileo, et. al. are premium players in their system*. They have yet to make that shift into what the best system is for the level of athlete they can now recruit. It will take a couple of seasons before those two variables stabilize.

For example, does Smith really know what a potential Michigan QB is? Not yet. He won't know until Forcier is a senior. The point being, more changes than just the kid. The kids capabilities drive the system, and vice-versa. Right now, the coaches are working with an outdated model of what the offense is. I believe that's why they offered this guy, AND why I think it was a mistake. They believe he is perfect for a system that will be outdated when he's ready to play in it.

I really believe in 2 years, RR will scratch his head and wonder why they recruited him, but right now he would say "look at him! He's an ideal slot receiver for what we run!"

I'm not sure why everybody's so effing panicked about RichRod picking up a marginally talented white kid to play in the slot. He needs bodies there, and he started with nothing just 2 years ago. Somebody is going to be at the bottom of the depth chart, and not even USC has 5* recruits down that far. Why can't people accept this?

Besides, it's very early in the recruiting cycle. Some of these kids that look like a stretch may turn out to be better than initially thought and their rankings will be boosted as a result. As ShockFX pointed out below, a lot of our up and coming talent didn't have too many stars this early in the cycle.

Let the Dileo commitment ride, and let's just wait to see what happens.

This is a very well written post. As others have stated it clearly explains my thoughts on this topic as well.

I like the "managing the risk" angle of the post; maybe that comes from the nerd in me. You are completely correct that RR and his staff had to bring in higher risk kids while at WVU, both from a character standpoint as well as from a skill hit or miss standpoint. The standard deviation in terms of both were just much larger.

He does not need to take such large risks in recruiting in A^2 from either standpoint. The standard deviation in both a recruit's character and skill level should be much smaller and the bell curve much steeper. Sure there will be outliers such as McGuffie. However by recruiting more discreetly those outliers should be few and far between compared to his days in Morgantown. It's also much easier to justify missing on a 4/5 star kid in McGuffie that it would be in a lower ranked player such as Drake.

I agree that over time RR and his recruiting staff will tighten it up a bit once they are finally comfortable with the fact that they were just handed the keys to a Ferrari and no longer have to be seen driving around town in a Hyundai.

is more quick than fast,good hands, fast

I think that once RR gets enough bodies that fit his vision of his program, he will feel more comfortable turning down the more "marginal" prospects. For right now, though, he needs those kids.

Some people seem to be judging RR by one season in which he was stuck with a team whose maximum potential was probably 5-7, even with the old offense. I think he walked into a cesspool, performed admirably, and will produce a lot better results this year and subsequent years.

As someone else alluded to, this staff will develop players better than Carr's did for one major reason: the Barwis factor. I am happy with the early class so far, and look forward to seeing the RR machine working at full capacity on the recruiting trail in subsequent years.

Once RR demonstrates that his offense is going to get the ball to everybody, and that it will result in a highly-ranked team at the end of the season, he could be in the enviable position of having four and five-stars "selling" him instead of vice-versa.

Please refer to John U. Bacon's most excellent book, "Bo's Lasting Lessons", chapter 11.

Also...

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050828/SPORTS17/...

Interesting read....

I couldn't find any star ratings on Rob Lytle--maybe they didn't exist back then. Woody tried like heck to get him--even drove to his house in a final attempt and make Rob look him in the eye.

Recruiting, in my mind at least, with regard to fans is just entertainment. We don't have the inside info coaches have, and until a kid steps onto the field we don't really have a clue.

However, I do enjoy watching everyone getting their panties in a bunch over this junk....

I was with you until this passage:

The risk of pursuing this strategy is that the system you crafted can be attacked or beaten in some fashion, that is, it is a weaker overall offense than something else. But so far, so good for the spread.

In what fashion can the spread be attacked by opposing defenses? And what is the offense that it is weaker overall than? You throw these comments out there without clarification. We had a pro-style offense, loaded with future NFL players, under Carr, yet we generally were just middle-of-the-pack in offensive production. Meanwhile WVU under RR was way ahead of us.

sounds like we all want to trust RR, i know he knows what he's doing but i believe the complaint comes from the fact that, from the knowledge that we have now from the recruiting web sites is that most of these recruits will still be there after their senior year. so why are we offerring them so early? which i think brings a few questions.
1. are these kids hidden studs that will blow up their senior yr and be recruited by everyone?
2. is RR just trying to get as many people as he can in case of de-commits?

IMO it is not the offensive style that makes it hard to defend. Diversity in attack makes it effective. As long as you can utilize all your weapons and execute I see no inherent advantage in one system over another. So I understand when you say that by operating a certain system you increase the chances of a defense figuring out a way to stop said system. But, I do not see how defenses have a better chance of figuring out RR's system over say any other offensive system.

"I do not believe they have fully adjusted to their new recruiting reality... But I also don’t think that they realize they can recruit a fast, fast, fast, tall or at least not short slot receiver yet (and lots of other recruiting possibilities as well.)"

You're drinking the maize and blue Kool-Aid. I drink it too, but come on man.

3-9, new coach, different system, program on the decline, a series of recent recruiting class flops... what do you expect?

Listen, there are a lot of good teams, with good history and reputation out there who can go 9-3, 8-4 every year, like Lloyd could. I know, I know, the helmets. They get you a player or two. But Jesus Christ, you make it sound like we're USC, LSU or Florida.

I think RR has been a rockstar of a recruiter. Take a look at our O-line next season. That's the place to start filling the cupboard and he nailed it. Next will have to be the D, where, if you'll note, Lloyd was good a getting one, one single good recruit per season. Where'd that leave us?

CARLOS FREAKING BROWN! I'd take last seasons recruiting class over many of the recent years prior. I think that tells you all you need to know.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of to many slot receivers that are very tall. Can you? The two in the pros that immediately come to mind are Brandon Stokley and Wes Welker, neither of whom are very tall I think. Heck, the colts drafted the guy from OSU (Gonzalez?) to replace Stokley, and I don't think Gonzalez is that tall.

I had completely forgotten about the whole "run to the line of scrimmage in the 4th quarter" thing. Did the team actually do that in any of the games last season? I honestly can't remember, and I forgot to look for it at the time.

I agree completely on two main points: recruiting and "outworking opponents".

RR hasn't proven anything yet and has all of his work ahead of him following the 2008 season debacle. There are no good excuses for losing to Toledo, Northwestern and Purdue last year.

About taking a 3-star athlete nobody wants and applying them into a system which transforms them miraculously into a "5-star at their position" is an interesting concept. We haven't observed this very much at Michigan, with the exception of Mike Hart who was a 3 star RB that many teams wanted.
I hope Odoms, TRobinson and some of the 3-star speed demon slots shine this fall, however. With a better QB, they probably will.

About "outworking opponents", this is meaningful only if it yields results in games. There's something to be said about working smarter versus working harder. When the OL runs to the line of scrimmage, this brings the full force of mental and physical toughness to bear on opponents, to be sure, but it also is about offensive efficacy. It's part and parcel of running a no huddle spread option offense. I'm sure Michigan's players worked very hard and had very physical practices last year. But then the UM coaches stated repeatedly that the success at these mid-season practices was just not translating into games, and they appeared confused as to why this was the case.

I agree with the concept of "outworking opponents" as long as this extra effort pays off in increased productivity. Having the 300 lbs defensive lineman volunteer to run extra suicides at practice for the team shows commitment, dedication, desire and physical and mental toughness. That kind of "work" should eventually translate to on-field success, but for whatever reason (lack of buy-in, lack of commitment, poor coaching) it hasn't.

If there is anyone who knows the exact type of player needed to run this version of the shotgun spread-option, it's RR. Forgive me for this, but who are you to question his plans? One thing that I love about this new scheme is that there IS a concrete idea of the size/type/skill set for each position. If RR wanted a big guy, he would put him on the outside at X or Z. The Y is a slot back who is an agile, quick in space, make you miss kind of guy that can break one for 6 at any time. Besides, this kid Dileo is going to return kicks and punts and probably play corner. Dileo is the first kid in the history of Louisana to pass for a TD, run for a TD, catch a TD, return a punt for a TD, and return a kick for a TD all in one season. Sounds like a playmaker to me. That's the other thing. Every guy on offense UM gets is dangerous, and is a serious threat to go the distance. He likes explosive "splash play" guys and I like his style. Last year was a necessary evil to run this team through the "let's change everything" gauntlet. Everywhere RR has coached, he has trouble his first year. It takes time to re-learn everything from blocking landmarks, to his "check with me" on certain plays. If some of you missed the spring game you should go check it out. The offensive line is 10x better, and they are moving as a unit instead of a bunch of guys running around. This kid, Tate is special. I am certainly drinking maize and blue kool-aid, but watching Tate run the offense is a night and day difference. He is quick to make decisions, accurate with hitting guys not only perfectly but in stride to set up YAC. He will also make big plays with his feet when the pocket breaks down, and that adds a whole new element to the offense. Then when David Cone came out, it looked like Threet all over again. The reason is the new QB's skill sets actually fit the offense. Now the read option is actually an option, where last year it was just a key on the back. Here's to starting 4-0 this year and sending Weiss back to the NFL where he belongs. Go Blue!!!!!!!!!!!!