Home
i'm an actor, not a reactor

Primary links

  • About
    • About
    • $upport (lol)
    • Ethics
    • FAQ
    • Glossary
    • Privacy Policy
  • Contact
    • The Editor
    • Advertising/Associate Editor
    • Managing Editor/Hoops
  • MGoStore
    • MGoStore
    • Hail to Old Blue
  • MGoBoard
    • MGoBoard
    • MGoBoard FAQ
    • Michigan bar locator
    • Moderator Action Sticky
  • Useful Stuff
    • Depth Chart By Class
    • Unofficial Two Deep
    • Football Schedule (wiki)
    • Hoops Depth Chart by Class
    • Ticket spreadsheet
    • MGoFlickr
    • User-Curated HOF
    • Where To Eat In Ann Arbor
    • Diaries, Windows Live Writer, And You
Home Diaries dnak438's blog

Navigation

  • Forums
  • Recent posts

User login

  • Create new account
  • Request new password

MGoElsewhere

  • @MGoBlog (Brian)
  • @aceanbender
  • @Misopogon (Seth)
  • @Aeschnepp (Adam)
  • @BISB
  • @EUpchurchPhoto
  • @FullOfTwitt (Fuller)
  • Hail to the Victors 2016
  • MGoFacebook
  • MGoPodcast
  • WTKA
  • Instagram

Michigan Blogs

  • Big House Blog
  • Burgeoning Wolverine Star
  • Genuinely Sarcastic
  • Go Blue Michigan Wolverine
  • Holdin' The Rope
  • MVictors
  • Maize 'n' Blue Nation
  • Maize 'n' Brew
  • Maize And Go Blue
  • Michigan Hockey Net
  • MMMGoBlueBBQ
  • The Blog That Yost Built
  • The Hoover Street Rag
  • The M Zone
  • Touch The Banner
  • UMGoBlog
  • UMHoops
  • UMTailgate
  • Wolverine Liberation Army

M On The Net

  • mgovideo
  • MGoBlue.com
  • Mike DeSimone
  • Recruiting Planet
  • The Wolverine
  • Go Blue Wolverine
  • Winged Helmet
  • UMGoBlue.com
  • MaizeRage.org
  • Puckhead
  • The M Den
  • True Blue Fan Forum

Big Ten Blogs

  • Illinois
    • Illinois Loyalty
    • Illinois Baseball Report
  • Indiana
    • Inside The Hall
    • The Crimson Quarry
  • Iowa
    • Black Heart, Gold Pants
    • Fight For Iowa
  • Michigan State
    • The Only Colors
  • Minnesota
    • GopherHole.com
    • The Daily Gopher
  • Nebraska
    • Corn Nation
    • Husker Max
    • Husker Mike's Blasphemy
    • Husker Gameday
  • Northwestern
    • Sippin' On Purple
    • Lake The Posts
  • Notre Dame
    • The House Rock Built
    • One Foot Down
  • Ohio State
    • Eleven Warriors
    • Buckeye Commentary
    • Men of the Scarlet and Gray
    • Our Honor Defend
    • The Buckeye Nine
  • Penn State
    • Slow States
    • Black Shoe Diaries
    • Happy Valley Hardball
    • Penn State Clips
    • Linebacker U
    • Nittany White Out
  • Purdue
    • Boiled Sports
    • Hammer and Rails
  • Wisconsin
    • Bruce Ciskie

Links of Note

  • Baseball
    • College Baseball Today
    • The College Baseball Blog
  • Basketball
    • Ken Pomeroy
    • Hoop Math
    • John Gasaway
    • Luke Winn/Sports Illustrated
  • College Hockey
    • Chris Heisenberg (Class of 2016)
    • College Hockey Stats
    • Michigan College Hockey
    • Hockey's Future
    • Sioux Sports
    • USCHO
  • Football
    • Smart Football
    • Every Day Should Be Saturday
    • Matt Hinton/Grantland
    • Football Study Hall
    • Football Outsiders
    • Harold Stassen
    • NCAA D-I Stats Page
    • The Wizard Of Odds
    • CFB Stats
  • General
    • Sports Central
  • Local Interest
    • The Ann Arbor Chronicle
    • Arborwiki
    • Arbor Update
    • Ann Arbor Observer
    • Teeter Talk
    • Vacuum
  • Teams Of The D
    • Lions
      • Pride of Detroit
    • Pistons
      • Detroit Bad Boys
      • Need4Sheed
    • Tigers
      • Roar Of The Tigers
      • Bless You Boys
      • The Daily Fungo
      • The Detroit Tigers Weblog
    • Red Wings
      • Winging It In Motown
      • On The Wings
    • Michigan Sports Forum

Beveled Guilt

Site Search

Diaries

  • New
  • Popular
  • Hot
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 4 days ago
  • Thirteen unlucky minutes (TL;DNR-This is a bit of rant about the refs)
    docwhoblocked - 3 weeks ago
  • Fan Satisfaction Index End of Season Bball Survey
    OneFootIn - 3 weeks ago
  • How likely are we to revert to the mean?
    Bo Glue - 3 weeks ago
  • It's time to avenge Villanova's 1985 NCAA tourney upset over Michigan
    Communist Football - 3 weeks ago
  •  
  • 1 of 2
  • ››
more
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 1,547 views
  • 14 Months Ago: The Fire Beilein Threads.
    stephenrjking - 237 comments
  • This Month in MGoBlog History - April 2008: No Spring Game at the Big House! Hockey loses to ND in the Frozen Four!
    Maize.Blue Wagner - 9 comments

MGoBoard

  • New
  • Recent
  • Hot
  • Moderator Action Sticky 2018
    6 replies
  • Dantonio: players will decide if Reschke can rejoin the team
    81 replies
  • Brandon Wimbush Highlights in Notre Dame Spring Game
    23 replies
  • OT: Archer Danger Island
    23 replies
  • OT: Golden State Killer suspect arrested in California
    33 replies
  • SIAP: U of M Dearborn Bball Team Needs the Money Cannon!
    5 replies
  • Ibi Watson to Dayton.
    47 replies
  • NFL Draft Eve Debate
    85 replies
  • Scrimmage Observations
    126 replies
  • Quote from Nebraska A.D.
    90 replies
  • PSA: 2018 FOOTBALL SEASON TICKET UPGRADES
    10 replies
  • More MSU takes. From USA Today
    65 replies
  • OT: National Park Week; What's Your Favorite?
    173 replies
  • New Q&A with Cam McGrone, video
    3 replies
  • Rice Commission recommendations to be released today
    77 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • Dantonio: players will decide if Reschke can rejoin the team
    81 replies
  • NFL Draft Eve Debate
    85 replies
  • Scrimmage Observations
    126 replies
  • Moderator Action Sticky 2018
    6 replies
  • Brandon Wimbush Highlights in Notre Dame Spring Game
    23 replies
  • OT: Golden State Killer suspect arrested in California
    33 replies
  • Ibi Watson to Dayton.
    47 replies
  • Quote from Nebraska A.D.
    90 replies
  • OT: Archer Danger Island
    23 replies
  • PSA: 2018 FOOTBALL SEASON TICKET UPGRADES
    10 replies
  • OT: Rick Pitino Rumored to be Candidate for Detroit Mercy Job
    80 replies
  • OT: National Park Week; What's Your Favorite?
    173 replies
  • More MSU takes. From USA Today
    65 replies
  • Harmoniously OT: UM Men's Glee Club in AZ
    18 replies
  • SIAP: U of M Dearborn Bball Team Needs the Money Cannon!
    5 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››
  • OT: National Park Week; What's Your Favorite?
    173 replies
  • The Evolution of Commerce - What Industries are Dying, What's Thriving?
    148 replies
  • Pep Hamilton on Shea: Can extend the play, make all the throws, plus other QB's
    129 replies
  • In-state recruiting rankings update
    125 replies
  • Scrimmage Observations
    125 replies
  • OT - Jalen Hurts possibly looking to transfer
    121 replies
  • Notre Dame Spring Game: analysis from M n B, video
    119 replies
  • Hello? Boring Tuesday POSbang Happy Hour Thread
    117 replies
  • Nebraska football
    105 replies
  • OT: Map of college stadiums that sell alcohol
    96 replies
  • Karsen Barnhart - did we cool on him?
    92 replies
  • OT: College Football video games coming back
    90 replies
  • Quote from Nebraska A.D.
    90 replies
  • UCF Knights unveil 2017 championship banner
    89 replies
  • NFL Draft Eve Debate
    84 replies
  •  
  • 1 of 6
  • ››

Support MGoBlog: buy stuff at Amazon

The realm of the possible (updated)

By dnak438 — July 14th, 2011 at 10:55 PM — 15 comments
Filed under:
  • defense
  • football

In my last diary I suggested that there might be some room for extra defensive improvement due to the upgrade at DC from Greg Robinson to Greg Mattison. Although I am in general agreement with Brian that massive improvements in the defense should not be expected, I began to wonder what was possible--that is, in the past 5-6 years, has a team improved its defense by leaps and bounds? To that end, I looked at scoring defense ranks of all 120 FBS teams from 2003-2010 to see how teams improved from year to year. Based on the numbers at Rivals, here is how the data shake out:

Note: the x-axis represents changes in rank (negative is good), the y-axis number of examples (out of 840 [120 teams * 7 years]). So the distribution is more or less normal, with a change of 80 rank positions (in either direction) being the maximum, more or less. The largest improvement in our dataset is 94 positions, so if that is the maximum possible then Michigan in 2011 could move up from the 102nd scoring defense (in 2010) to 8th (in 2011). HOORAY!

I had originally suggested that this level of improvement was unlikely, but turd ferguson pointed out that my percentages were misleading, because middling- to highly-ranked defenses simply cannot improve by a large margin. Looking at teams ranked 91st or worse in scoring defense, then, we get the following chart:

You can see that teams with bad defenses improve 20 ranks on average, in part because they have more room to improve than they do to regress. 31% of the time teams ranked 91st or worse improve 30 ranks or more; and 17% of the time they improve 50 ranks or more. To get into the top quartile of defenses, a team ranked 102nd (like Michigan) needs a 70 rank (or more) improvement, which has happened 5% of the time. Looking at the teams with huge improvements, it is difficult to generalize about how they did it. Here are the most improved teams in each year for which we have data (bolded numbers represent the year in which the big improvement was made):

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Iowa St 112 39 16 107 96 112 43 76
TCU 27 106 12 5 16 2 6 1
UCLA 56 67 110 27 34 82 33 87
Uconn 60 41 21 94 11 24 60 22
N Illinois 39 66 37 42 89 16 31 16
Nebraska 6 74 25 30 115 84 2 8
A&M 118 45 98 32 56 115 104 27

In some cases they seem based on the emergence of a superstar player on defense. For instance, Suh for Nebraska in 2009, which jumped from the 84th scoring defense to 2nd, or Von Miller for Texas A&M, which jumped from the 104th scoring defense in 2009 to the 27th in 2010.

In other cases you have teams that are consistently fairly good who for some reason have a collapse but then recover to their old form. UConn, for instance, usually has a pretty good scoring defense. In 2005, they were 21st, and in 2007 they were 11th in the country, but in 2006 they were 94th. Likewise, TCU has a pretty amazing scoring defense but in 2004 they were 106th in the country. The year before they were 27th, the year after they were 12th. They had some NFL talent, but all 2nd day draft picks or free agents.

Michigan is obviously not in the second type of team. Our defense hasn't been top 20 since 2006. It seems likely that for Michigan to have a good-to-great defense next year, something unexpected will have to happen. The most probable in my opinion is that one or two of our defensive players becomes dominant. Note: my excel spreadsheet is available for download here.

  • dnak438's blog
  • Login or register to post comments

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
July 14th, 2011 at 11:16 PM
#2
Wolverine In Exile
Wolverine In Exile's picture
Joined: 11/08/2008
MGoPoints: 5357
Interesting

If your superstar theory is to come to fruition, you have to identify a potential breakout star who can instantly impact... I would propose Mike Martin is the only player with that potential on our team today. *IF* a competent 3-tech DT emerges, that might be the easing Martin needs to have a blowup year and become a Suh-like dominent force. A dominating interior lineman is the quickest way in my opinion to improve a defense as a dominating interior lineman can singly disrupt both an interior run game and timing passing game, leaving a DC to scheme around a quick passing game or outside running game. But Martin has to stay healthy and Big Will or Ash HAS to show up as a sufficient DT. If they don't, it's last year all over again where Martin gets double-teamed until his ankles break.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 14th, 2011 at 11:27 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
ILwolverine
Joined: 02/24/2011
MGoPoints: 1397
My guess is Washington shows

My guess is Washington shows up as the savior at NT to free the other three up to really dominate the game.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 14th, 2011 at 11:31 PM
#4
turtleboy
turtleboy's picture
Joined: 04/22/2011
MGoPoints: 17694
The defense has a ton of upside

for this year. While I don't expect miracles we have all of the things that quantify a BIG statistical jump working for us. We return the most starters, our main rivals take a big hit in returning starters. We have the coaching change from several underperforming coaches to 3 stellar D line coaches, 2 with a long proven track record. We not only have emerging talent (Gordon-Ryan-Demens,) but we also have players who we all thought were ready to turn the corner, we have star talent returning from injury (Woolfork-Floyd-Martin) and we have overburdened talent (Martin-RVB-Roh) suddenly being taken off the leash and properly utilized. We're switching from a 3 man front to an (at times) 5 man front. We had a tougher road schedule last year and the easier home schedule this year. We have our main competitors offenses taking large steps backwards, while ours adds better clock management and it seems like the planets have aligned themselves just to give us a big statistcal jump. We'll likely not be where we ultimately want to be this year, but we couldn't arrange it much better to make a bigger 1 year improvement unless we switched to a weaker conference.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 14th, 2011 at 11:47 PM
(Reply to #4) #5
maineandblue
maineandblue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2370
Yes.

All of these things, plus we no longer have the youngest and shallowest defense in the B1G (and I believe it was one of the youngest in all of college football). Moreover, some of the upperclassmen were only playing because of injury and lack of young studs.

The OP's analysis is very much appreciated and does provide some hope, but as for the "conclusions and implications" section I think there's a third theory to help explain the potential for a significant improvement: last year we had a perfect storm of factors come together to result in a terrible defense. This year there could be a perfect storm of factors to create a significant jump in the defensive rankings. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high, but I truly do expect us to be ranked in the 50s or 60s, with the potential for 40s or even 30s if we start clicking, winning, get on a roll, and get some attitude.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 14th, 2011 at 11:41 PM
#6
leu2500
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 1068
Wonder if Nebraska would be a good analog.

In 2007 they gave up an avg. of 37 ppg, including the embarassing 76 to Kansas.  Tom Osborne fires Callahan.  Brings in Bo Pelini, defensive background, to be head coach.  Nebraska's defense improves 31 positions. 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 12:04 AM
#7
WolverineBlue
WolverineBlue's picture
Joined: 01/09/2010
MGoPoints: 564
Different perspective

Projecting defensive performance for 2011 in terms of how big a jump in the rankings is required is, I think, somewhat misleading. It makes it seem like a statistical miracle is required to return to any kind of respectability. The remarkable statistical anomaly is already in the books: it is the epically, historically atrocious performance of last year's defense. That, let us hope, was an unfortunate outlier that Michigan fans will never again bear witness to.

If, instead, we simply forget all historical statistics and try to objectively compare the 2011 Michigan defense with the other 119 FBS teams in terms of talent, experience, and coaching, I think we would conclude that it is not a top 20 unit, but something like 40th would be a reasonable estimate. I don't think it is unreasonable or unrealistic for Michigan fans to expect a return to semi-normalcy following the recent excursion into the twilight zone of bad defenses.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 1:53 AM
#8
MCalibur
MCalibur's picture
Joined: 07/16/2009
MGoPoints: 2670
I like stats -- a lot -- but

I like stats -- a lot -- but I think there needs to be more discussion about WHY Mattison would be another 30 spots (I abhore straight rankings, but that's a different matter). In other words, you need a mechanism. In Brian's post the other day the mechanism was returning starters. In this diary, the mechanism is...nothing.

The only thing this data says is that we should expect the average improvement in ranking; we should expect nothing. Why isn't he worth 80 spots? How do we know he's worth anything at all?

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 8:01 AM
(Reply to #8) #9
dnak438
dnak438's picture
Joined: 08/12/2009
MGoPoints: 6956
You need to read the other diary

entitled the GERG effect. These data don't speak to that issue at all, I agree. I wasn't claiming that, though.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 2:53 AM
#10
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 30564
Possible?

Including a bowl game, this team could win 6 games or it could win 11.  There is a lot of "possible" this season.  And because of the wholesale coaching changes, we won't really have any idea until the games happen.  The games that really count will be ND (loss), MSU (win), Nebraska (loss), and Ohio (win). 

If Hoke continues the upward trend and they go 9-3, the bandwagoneers will all be satisfied that the program is "going in the right direction."  That would be a great start.

 

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 6:59 AM
#11
turd ferguson
turd ferguson's picture
Joined: 12/09/2009
MGoPoints: 26489
posted from iPhone

Thanks for putting in the work on this and posting. I have a note about a statistical issue that makes these numbers pretty misleading, though. Part of the reason that you so rarely see jumps of, say, 70 spots is that only a fraction of teams could possibly make that jump no matter how much their D improves. If a team's D shot from #65 one year to #1 the following year, that wouldn't qualify as extreme improvement with the way you've set this up. In fact, that would count as a team that failed to make a 70-spot jump (since it'd be in your denominator but not your numerator).



One simple analysis that might be interesting would be to take the handful of defenses that finished right around where Michigan finished last year (say 5 in each direction over 10 years for about 100 teams) and plot where they finished the following year. This might give a better feel for the distribution of past outcomes.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 7:38 AM
(Reply to #10) #12
dnak438
dnak438's picture
Joined: 08/12/2009
MGoPoints: 6956
That's totally correct

Thanks for picking that up. I'll update the discussion to reflect this.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 8:57 AM
#13
bmwfanatic
Joined: 10/19/2010
MGoPoints: 8
an improvement...

an improvement from 102nd to 70th seems realistic to me.  The 70th ranked team in PPG allowed last year was Idaho at 28.3.  With an easier schedule, improved scheme, coaching, and personell, that sounds about right.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 15th, 2011 at 12:18 PM
#14
BlueHorn35
BlueHorn35's picture
Joined: 07/15/2011
MGoPoints: 8
One Improvement I would like to see

I know that the board has had numerous discussions related to the defense and how much we as fans can/should expect it to improve. I find these posts to be very interesting. I hope the defense shows up this year.

One thing that a defense must do, and has been missing, is intimidate the players accross from them. I don't care if guys are out of position, or if they miss tackles, or the other side happens to be more athletic right now; but I do care about how much effort and physicality is being put into it. a lesser athlete can always make up ground by being more physical and simply intimidating the other side. When was the last time we had a Michigan defense where to a man you could say you would not want to be hit by any of those guys? I can't remember the last time I saw a solid de-cleater where a Michigan man was on the giving side and not the receiving side. I just want them to HIT SOMEONE.

As my college defensive coordinator used to say "find someone and make them your B$TCH!"

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 16th, 2011 at 12:12 AM
#15
sheepdog
sheepdog's picture
Joined: 06/15/2011
MGoPoints: 2568
posted from iPhone

I

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
July 17th, 2011 at 11:30 PM
(Reply to #15) #16
Seth
Seth's picture
Joined: 10/14/2008
MGoPoints: 94491
...shoulda known better with

...shoulda known better with a girl like you.

Top
  • Login or register to post comments
Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system
Theme provided by Roopletheme; sidebars adapted from Chris Murphy.