A Quick Sugar Bowl Preview and Game Theory Follow-Ups

Posted in another thread ("game-theory gods"), but had to ask  you directly.  Was this tweet sarcasm or serious?

Odds of making a 42 yard FG, 56%, odds of making even a 32 yard FG, 79%. Easy call to kick it there and not try for a single yard.

Everyone was blasting Richt for the conservatism and it sure seemed like playing for a 3rd down FG was a mistake, but you don't seem like the type to identify that as an "easy call" sarcastically.  Also, which D'Antonio 2 point conversion attempt was the worst, or are they all equally dumb?

Forgot my sarcasm font on that one. As the chart above shows, that area yards are critical to improving your odds. Wouldn't take a coin flip shot at winning without trying to something more. 

All of the Sparty 2 pt attempts were questionable. The first two were way to early but at least the argument could be made at that point that MSU offense was stalled and you have to try, even if its still the third quarter. By the time the try in the fourth came MSU had started moving the ball on offense. Even though time was getting tighter, there were several possessions left and obviously scenarios where the foregone points would have cost them. If Sparty kicks to go up 21-19, the Georgia TD gives them 25-27 depending on what they decide to do for PAT (I would kick, go up 5), but no matter what, the final MSU TD seals the game. With 14 seconds left I might even take a knee instead of try a point (assuming you were trailing by 4 or 5, not 6), just to avoid what happened to Nebraska. 

envied the sheer calculated clarity of your statistically proven world.  I suppose you always get a great night's sleep?

Stanford has a first down around the 20 with 52 seconds and 3 time-outs.  They run into the pile to center it for a ~35 yd field-goal, and let the clock run down to 3 seconds before using a timeout.  I remarked to my patiently-awaiting-end-of-game wife that even a good college kicker will miss from there at least 1 time in 5 ... and sure enough, they do.  You have the Heisman runner-up in a game where he's been preternaturally accurate (26-30 in regulation with 1 pick - and that one pick was a fantastic effort by the DB to break, leap and come down in bounds), and you're not going to give your kicker another 5 yards?  Run a quick screen or a fade - something low-risk, sure - but get him more yardage.

Ok.St.'s in OT was at least a chip shot and known to be the game-winner, but it still seems like the chances of missing an extra point are greater than the chances of a turnover on a fade or other low-risk play.  Not to mention that if something bad happens like a fumble or bad snap, if you recover you can still try the field goal; if you don't you play OT again.

If I'm reading your post from a week or so ago correctly, MSU had a 5% chance of winning that game after throwing that pick on the first posession of OT.  Is that correct?  If so, Richt truly is the master of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

deciding not to try to get a first down with 4 minutes left in the game and a 7 point lead.  Instead they try  3 straight ahead running plays to try and run as much time off the clock as they can.  Then they punt to MSU with 2 minutes left.

They deserved to lose.