There's absolutely no way that ends up on a bulletin board somewhere
Purdue Recap: Right back where we started from
With two games left in the regular season the total picture is starting to come into focus, and it’s right where a lot of us thought it would be going in, 7-8 wins for the season. With a home date against Wisconsin this week and then a trip to Columbus, I have a 46% shot at staying at 7, a 48% chance of splitting and going 8-4 and a slim 6% chance of running the table.
Sure we got a little carried away after another hot start and we got doom and gloom during the rough October stretch, but with two games left, at the top level this team is where many of us expected. Yeah, the offense has been better than we hoped at times and the defense has been worse than we feared at times, but add it all up and for the most part it makes sense.
Purdue Notes
With all the turnovers generating field position for the offenses, this game had a 32-29 advantage for Michigan in terms of expected points based on field position. The offenses responded with essentially a 21-9 result. Michigan offense under performed the field position by 11 points (12 if you count the special teams costing an extra point) and Michigan’s defense held Purdue 20 points below their expected points, not too mention adding a touchdown of their own. Yakety Sax it was.
Game scores:
Michigan rush: +2
Michigan pass: +2
Purdue rush: +0
Purdue pass: –13
Denard: +8 pass, +1 rush, –1 punt!
Tate: –2 pass, –1 rush
V Smith: +2
S Hopkins: –1
M Shaw: –1
R Roundtree: +8
D Stonum: +0
J Hemingway: +5
K Koger: +3
M Webb: +3
Big Ten Race
Based on remaining win probabilities and my best understanding of the tiebreaker procedures, here are my Big Ten Auto-berth odds:
Wisconsin: 36%
Michigan St: 30%
Ohio St: 19%
15% chance that everyone ends with at least two losses and craziness really ensues.
My Ballot
Based on suggestions last week I moved to a loss-penalty (-5 pts PAN) and am now ranking teams based on a loss-adjusted PAN.
| Rank | Team | Conf | PAN | SOS | Loss |
| 1 | Auburn | SEC | 23.1 | 5.33 | - |
| 2 | Boise St | WAC | 19.9 | -2.68 | - |
| 3 | TCU | Mtn West | 19.7 | 0.61 | - |
| 4 | Oregon | PAC 10 | 15.5 | -1.16 | - |
| 5 | Oklahoma St | Big XII | 19.6 | 2.95 | 1 |
| 6 | Stanford | PAC 10 | 17.6 | 2.27 | 1 |
| 7 | Nebraska | Big XII | 16.4 | 0.12 | 1 |
| 8 | Ohio St | Big Ten | 15.2 | -0.40 | 1 |
| 9 | Arkansas | SEC | 19.5 | 5.75 | 2 |
| 10 | Michigan St | Big Ten | 13.3 | 2.36 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama | SEC | 18.0 | 3.31 | 2 |
| 12 | LSU | SEC | 12.4 | 5.22 | 1 |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 15.7 | 0.19 | 2 |
| 14 | Oklahoma | Big XII | 15.6 | 4.12 | 2 |
| 15 | Texas A&M | Big XII | 20.6 | 4.91 | 3 |
| 16 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 9.3 | -0.08 | 1 |
| 17 | Missouri | Big XII | 13.7 | 6.05 | 2 |
| 18 | S Carolina | SEC | 18.2 | 7.54 | 3 |
| 19 | Nevada | WAC | 7.5 | -3.20 | 1 |
| 20 | Hawaii | WAC | 14.8 | 4.23 | 3 |
| 21 | Utah | Mtn West | 9.7 | -1.38 | 2 |
| 22 | Iowa | Big Ten | 13.9 | 2.19 | 3 |
| 23 | USC | PAC 10 | 12.7 | 2.23 | 3 |
| 24 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 12.2 | 3.94 | 3 |
| 25 | Mississippi St | SEC | 11.2 | 4.75 | 3 |
FWIW Michigan checks in at #33
November 15th, 2010 at 1:25 PM | 
Good post as always. I know
Good post as always. I know
November 15th, 2010 at 1:27 PM |
Thanks for all the work. It's
Thanks for all the work. It's
Thanks for all the work. It's good to see the way the numbers point out that we see on the field.
Oh, and a Maxine Nightingale reference is always worth bonus points.
November 15th, 2010 at 2:01 PM |
Man. Computers all over the
Man. Computers all over the
Man. Computers all over the world despise Wisconsin. What did Bielema do to piss off Bill Gates and Steve Jobs?
"Those who stay will be champions."
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1."
November 15th, 2010 at 2:56 PM |
See:
See:
Wisconsin's traditional and annual cup cakey delicious out of conference schedule.
Excellence is Good
November 15th, 2010 at 3:43 PM |
Yup
Yup
Sagarin has Wsky SoS at #83.
UNLV (2-8)
SJ State (1-9)
ASU (4-6)
Austin Peay (2-8 FCS)
Minnesota (2-9)
Indiana (4-6)
Life should not be a journey to the grave to arrive safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What A Ride!" HST
November 15th, 2010 at 6:22 PM |
Lose to Sparty
Lose to Sparty
Lose to Sparty
November 15th, 2010 at 4:14 PM |
Coin flip to split...
Coin flip to split...
sounds good to me. Maybe we'll pull a "not so fast" , and surprise the home crowd with a win on Saturday. Thanks Mathlete !
November 15th, 2010 at 5:37 PM |
I am hopeful of...
I am hopeful of...
an upset this weekend. It is good to see two wins that we are complaining about over the last two weeks...it means we expect more from this team....combine that with Wisconsin's cupcake schedule (really should've lost to ASU...Steven Threet anyone????). I like our chances this weekend...a lot.
The hole that Yost dug, Crisler paid for, Canham carpeted and Bo Schembechler fills every cotton-picking fall Saturday!
November 15th, 2010 at 6:24 PM |
What are the odds we win out
What are the odds we win out
What are the odds we win out and everyone else gets three losses? Who gets the Big 10's bid then? MSU (please no)??
November 15th, 2010 at 6:49 PM |
The highest ranked team in
The highest ranked team in
The highest ranked team in the Big10. Considering we would have won our last 5 games including our last two being against top 10 teams and everyone above us would have to lose once or twice, that would probably be us.
November 15th, 2010 at 9:29 PM |
Nice work. A little
Nice work. A little
Nice work. A little surprised you have Oregon ranked 4th with a negative SOS, but I'll trust your numbers.
I think the chance of a split to end the season rests entirely on the Wiscy game. If the OSU game was home I would be much higher, but to ask this team to win in the Port-a-Shoe is probably too much, even with the mediocre OSU offense and banged-up secondary.
November 15th, 2010 at 9:58 PM |
prior to the MSU game
prior to the MSU game
there was a 6% chance we would go 0-3 against MSU, Iowa, and PSU. Now there is a 6% chance that we run the table. lets hope lightning strikes twice
Ann Arbor is a nice girl, it's Mary Markley who's a whore
November 16th, 2010 at 10:33 AM |
Don't really care about the stats, this year.
Don't really care about the stats, this year.
They don't have a losing record for the season, and I pray they can finish on a winning note. Logic says no, but why not believe in the unforseen.So praying for the best!
HAIL TO THE VICTORS!
November 16th, 2010 at 11:17 AM |
So you're far more optimistic about the UW game
So you're far more optimistic about the UW game
Given your overall odds (and assuming you treated the two games as independent events), you've got us with a just over 47% chance of beating Wisconsin and a just under 13% chance of beating OSU. I guess I can't argue too much with those numbers.
Good post as always. I know we're all pulling for a Denarding and average defensing in one or both of our remaining games.