Rush Offense vs Purdue

Michigan Off: +8, 2nd nationally, 1st Big Ten

Purdue Def: +0, 54th, 6th

Key Players:

Denard Robinson: +7, 1st nationally

Michael Shaw: +1, 7th in Big Ten (RB only)

Vincent Smith: +0, 10th in Big Ten

For the first time all season Michigan put up a huge day on the ground without Denard having a big day rushing. Shaw, Smith and Hopkins all had strong days against a very good defense. Purdue’s defense has been consistently average. All of their games so far this year have been between +4 and –2.

Last week proved that the offense can be big even without Denard gaining hundreds of yards on the ground. Purdue’s consistent averageness makes a strong day very likely. Let’s hope that the backs can continue their progress from last week and Denard can limit his carries enough to make it through a full game.

Prediction: Michigan +8

Pass Offense vs Purdue

Michigan Off: +5, 10th, 1st

Purdue Def: +1, 48th, 5th

Denard Robinson: +5, 5th in Big Ten, 23rd nationally

Junior Hemingway: +6 5th, 28th

Roy Roundtree: +6, 7th, 34th

Darryl Stonum: +3, 15th

Despite two early interceptions and a host of drops, Michigan’s two-headed passing attack produced one of their top two games of the season. Roundtree and Hemingway produced most of the highlights but Stonum added several key catches as well. It was far and away Michigan’s best Big Ten performance since Indiana and considering the stakes last weekend, probably their best showing of the year through the air.

Purdue’s pass defense has been all over the map. They have produced very good games against Wisconsin and Minnesota but have been terrible against Illinois and Ohio St, two teams with mobile quarterbacks. If Purdue’s weakness through air has been due to a focus on running quarterbacks, it should be a fun day Saturday.

Prediction: Michigan +4 with the possibility for much more.

Rush Defense vs Purdue

Michigan Def: –4, 109th, 11th

Purdue Off: –0, 67th, 7th

Key Players:

Dan Dierking: +0, 8th in Big Ten

Michigan has had three really bad games defending the run against some of the best Big Ten rushing teams. Against more mediocre ground games the porous Michigan run defense has held up OK.

Purdue hasn’t put more than +1 on the ground in any Big Ten game and only did it once against Toledo in non-conference play. Purdue doesn’t look like a team that can do the damage that Illinois, Penn St or Michigan State did.

Prediction: –4 by the numbers but a good chance it’s closer to 0 barring another Siller-tastrophy.

Pass Defense vs Purdue

Michigan Def: –4, 110th, 11th

Purdue Off: –4, 107th, 11th

Key Players:

Sean Robinson: –2 average against Illinois and Wisconsin

No qualifying receivers

That’s a whole lot of ugly all around. Michigan has been in the –6 range for most of Big Ten play. The Penn St showing might start to look better as they put up a better opponent adjusted score against NW than they did against Michigan. Purdue hasn’t been better than –6 versus anyone that’s not Minnesota or Ball St.

Although this matchup looks like what we thought would happen at Penn St, Purdue has a more known quantity behind center and McGloin has proven for at least two games to be a significant upgrade to the Penn St offense which has been +10 opponent adjusted the last two games after being –5 prior.

Prediction: Push, Purdue does more than normal but no major damage.

Special Teams vs Purdue

Michigan: –2, 107th, 10th

Purdue: +0, 82nd, 8th

Michigan Kicks: Push, both teams are bad

Purdue Kicks: Advantage Purdue, we are not good

Michigan Punts: Big advantage Michigan, hopefully don’t need it

Purdue Punts: Advantage Purdue, they’re not good but they’ve been better than us

Kicking: slight advantage Purdue, they’re not good but they’ve been better than us

Purdue hasn’t been great at any special teams but they haven’t been the disaster Michigan has been, either. Hopefully our offense renders most of our special teams weaknesses irrelevant.

Predictions almost certain to cost you money if taken seriously

Michigan 35 Purdue 30 The Vegas number seems a bit high but even though the numbers are calling a 5 point game I think there is substantially more upside than downside with a depleted Purdue offense.

Illinois 31 Minnesota 10 – Illinois gets a nice cupcake to bounce back after last week’s tough loss

Iowa 42 Northwestern 20 – Sorry Jamiemac, still not buying NW this year

Ohio St 31 Penn St 21 – Walk-on Favre keeps it closer than the experts think and if the Penn St offense can keep up their strong performance of the last two weeks then I think Penn St actually has a shot to pull the upset.

Wisconsin 38 Indiana 20 – Another bottom feeder for the Badgers before their trip to AA next week.