Projecting Denard
Projecting Denard*
So we all know that Denard has been climbing the all-time leaders list in several categories here at Michigan. I figured I would take the time to figure out exactly where he stands now, and where he projects to be by the end of his Michigan career. I projected him to have 14 games left, erring on the side of pessimism (not including a B1G title game next year). I then averaged his stats per game from his two years as a starter over 14 games and added them to his currently accumulated stats.
DENARD ROBINSON CAREER STATS (all-time Michigan ranking)
|
|
Pass YDs | Pass TDs | Rush YDs | Rush TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 4,814 (8th) | 38 (6th) | 3,216 (11th) | 35 (7th**) |
| Total (Projected) | 7,406 (3rd) | 56 (4th) | 4,820 (2nd) | 52 (2nd**) |
ANY of those projected statistics would deem a player worthy of being suggested to be memorialized on a patch. To have all four categories up there? There will be a patch for players wearing 16, no questions asked.
Curious what kind of a season it would take for Denard to take ownership of 1st place on each of the lists?
How about passing for 4,902 yards and 50 touchdowns while rushing for 1,825 yards and 21** touchdowns? Does Denard have a shot at any of these categories? He better have a damned good bowl game this year. The rushing titles are attainable but unlikely. We would need to recruit all of Tacopants' 8-foot-tall younger cousins*** this year in order for him to think about the passing records.
Breaking it down even further, Denard would have to average the following stat line for the next 14 games to overtake our current leaders:
351 / 4 / 131 / 1.5
* - Projecting Denard - also a great name for a crappy Ann Arbor garage band or a chick flick featuring Julia Stiles trying to court Taye Diggs (or equivalent).
** - Records prior to 1949 are not official. If they were, Denard would project to 3rd all time in rushing TDs, well behind Willie Heston with 72.
*** - Raul, Ernesto, and Don Pablo Tacopants.
December 1st, 2011 at 1:05 PM ^
If you didn't include the B1G title game, that would be 13 including a bowl bid.
I don't see him getting 1600 yards rushing next year - let's hope Fitz gets 1600 instead, thus reducing wear and tear.
I really think Denard could care less as long as Michigan wins.
December 1st, 2011 at 1:11 PM ^
That's next year. He still has a game to go this year.
December 1st, 2011 at 1:41 PM ^
You are right...I was only counting next season. And Denard couldn't care less.
December 1st, 2011 at 1:17 PM ^
2012 bowl game + 12 regular season games in 2012 + 2013 bowl game comes out to 14 more, assuming we make a bowl appearance next year.
And agreed, I think it's been obvious from day 1 that Denard cares more about winning and helping his teammates succeed than accumulating gaudy stats for himself. Not that there's anything wrong with accumulating gaudy stats for himself, though...
December 1st, 2011 at 6:36 PM ^
2012 Big Ten Championship game.
December 1st, 2011 at 1:26 PM ^
I agree with you as long as you mean Denard couldn't care less.
December 1st, 2011 at 1:58 PM ^
He probably couldn't care less. That doesn't mean we can't live vicariously through his production. Isn't that what fans do, stake ourselves to the achievements of others?
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:23 AM ^
Meddler was actually replying to bluebyyou, who wrote that Denard "could care less" about stats and such, "could care less" being a common mistake when what people really mean is that they could NOT care less. In this context, the mistake suggests that Denard DOES care about his stats, although we don't know how much.
(which, ok, you obviously understand the concept, given the post to which I'm replying. think of this as a PSA for those who don't know)
December 1st, 2011 at 1:12 PM ^
I would prefer him winning the heisman over any of these.
I'm hoping he looks like a faster shiftier Russel Wilson next year, which he started to look like the last 2 games
December 1st, 2011 at 1:34 PM ^
I beleive the term is now "professional skepticism."
December 1st, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^
But part of me doesn't think career stats mean a ton these days. I agree with Johnny Blue that I'd rather Denard win the Heisman. What Denard has accomplished has been remarkable, I'm still not sure how he wasn't invited to NY last year being the first ever 2500/1500 yard man in college football.
My only complaint with career stats (and single year stats I guess) is how many games they play now a days. This career stat criticism doesn't apply to Denard directly as he didn't play much his Freshman year, but I noticed it especially as they've been showing the 1 year TD record. Barry Sanders played in 11 games scoring 39 TDs rushing at OkSU. (Not including his Bowl when he got 3 more, the NCAA starting counting bowl stats since). Monte Ball has a chance to break that, or come close, he's around 30 if I remember correctly... Through 12 games. Ball plays 2 more. So if he breaks 39 (I hope he doesn't) He'll have broken the single season record, only he played in 3 more games, or 25% MORE GAMES than Barry played.
Don't get me wrong, what Denard is doing is remarkable, and will be more so for being only a 3 year starter... Just something I've noticed as they keep adding games to the CFB Schedule.
December 1st, 2011 at 2:18 PM ^
Not that it detracts from your point at all, but Barry actually had 5 TDs in the 1988 Holiday Bowl.
December 1st, 2011 at 2:44 PM ^
All I can think to say....
December 2nd, 2011 at 3:02 PM ^
Ball has 34 TD's this year. He's had multiple 3-4 td games, so with 2 games left, i'd say it's definitely possible. That is just insane to me.
December 1st, 2011 at 2:30 PM ^
December 1st, 2011 at 3:52 PM ^
Rick Leach had 76 so Denard crushed that.
All-NCAA: 1.Case Keenum - 173 and counting 2. Dan Lefevour - 150
December 1st, 2011 at 4:00 PM ^
Chad Henne had 87 TDs through the air and 3 on the ground, so I think his 90 is the mark to beat. Denard should get it pretty easily (he only needs 17 more to tie), as long as he stays healthy.
As for Denard reaching #2 on the list, that would be quite the amazing accomplishment. If we assume 5 TDs in the bowl game (not out of the question, but would certainly be one hell of a performance), he will have 78 career TDs. To hit 150, he'd have to get 72 total TDs next year, which holy shit.
December 1st, 2011 at 4:13 PM ^
Yeah I screwed up a lot in that post. I took Denard's projected as his current total.
December 1st, 2011 at 4:36 PM ^
Keenum is 32 years old.
December 1st, 2011 at 6:39 PM ^
But Case really isn't that old especially when compared to 28 year old Weeden of Okie State.
December 1st, 2011 at 9:51 PM ^
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:27 AM ^
bauserman could be greg oden's grandchild...
December 1st, 2011 at 2:40 PM ^
looking at the last 2 games, if the performance trend continues through his senior years, denard is in a strong position to become truely legendary. His near perfect passing, reads, decisions, check downs and creative scrambling, and dilithium speed, plus his mastering of reading defenses and leading the team, all project him to be (and michigan to be) the most dangerous scoring machine ever. the heisman is not his goal, and that is another reason that he will win it. Hang on for the ride everybody. Alabama, and everyone else needs to be very very scared.
December 1st, 2011 at 3:42 PM ^
Denard will top all categories by mid-3rd quarter of the UMass game next year.
You've been warned, Air Force, shit's going to get ugly in week 2
December 1st, 2011 at 4:34 PM ^
If he gets the yards needed and scores the points likewise, we probably win the big ten. Wouldn't you project?
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<br>That Diggs and Stiles movie needs to happen as well. She's totally mature enough now.
December 1st, 2011 at 4:42 PM ^
I actually think that Denard might break A-Train's rushing TD record. If he scores 2 in the bowl, that's 18 this season. Assuming he stays the same next year, he's then tied with A-Train. Give him an extra game in the BTCG and he's bound to break it. The season record is 19 too, so that would mean he would at least tie that.
December 1st, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^
Excellent breakdown. Follow-up questions - where does Denard rank in yards per carry, and what would he need to be #1?
December 1st, 2011 at 10:30 PM ^
To me, the most encouraging thing WRT Denard is that his interceptions dropped DRAMATICALLY after the bye week, and during a stretch where we played several of the best defenses we faced all year. Between Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and OSU he threw four picks. Of those four, one was a hail mary before halftime. Another was an uncalled PI where his pass bounced of Roundtree's shoulder and went straight up. Yet another was a batted ball which bounced straight up. He really only threw one bad pick in that final stretch.
December 3rd, 2011 at 12:00 AM ^
But averaging his two year's stats doesn't really make much sense given the change in coaching regime. It would make more sense to take this year's stats and assume he will repeat them.
On the other hand, he is made of dilithium and will grow into the offense so he'll be much better next year and his stats may be more like the previous year. But then again, David Molk is graduating so that will hurt.
So, predicting the future is hard. The most conservative way to do this would be to take the worse of the two year's stats then create three scenarios by multipying by 75%, 100% and 125%. These should give reasonable "worst case" scenarios for where he will end up on the all-time lists. Odds are he'll be top 5 in each, just eyeballing it...
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