Projecting the 2016 Class - V2.0

Submitted by alum96 on

As we get closer to the end of the football season (noooooooo) we enter the heart of recruiting season. So I'll post one of these every so often as enough information changes to make a new post worthwhile. We had a very nice interview with Lorenz 2 days ago that helped clarify a lot of things.

Just for fun I did do one of these mid summer entitled "Way too Early Edition" - I always like to keep track of how foolish I look.... and who we thought the hot names at the time were.

Here is my framework

  • Lorenz indicated Michigan has now signaled they have 27 spots (not 28 as we all assumed)
  • Various peeps with premium access say we will grayshirt here or there, so I made some projections with that in mind
  • We will have attrition from our current 21 recruits, so I took best guesses and knocked out 3. That knocked current class down to 18.
  • I grayshirted 1 player. That knocked down class to 17* (grayshirt is still part of class but doesnt count against scholarship until January).
  • My new commits are based on "most likely" within reason and based on momentum; of course things change weekly in that aspect.

My projections leave the class with 27 immediate scholarship and 2 grayshirts = 29 players which yield a 247 score of 285.25. That would have been 5th overall in 2015.

Image result for commitment

Section 1 deals with current commits - who is staying and who is going. And who is going to open a spot by grayshirting. I listed us with 17 immediate scholarships and 1 grayshirt - with 3 decommits. Will discuss below chart.

  STAYING       GOING  
Pos Name Ntl Rnk   Pos Name Ntl Rnk
OL Ben Bredeson 37   ATH Chris Evans 328
QB Brandon Peters 78   LB David Reese 553
OL Michael Onwenu 90   ATH Kiante Enis 634
WR Ahmir Mitchell 127        
OL Devery Hamilton 234        
OL Erik Swenson 240        
DL Ron Johnson 277        
WR Brad Hawkins 279        
DL Carlo Kemp 307        
ATH Victor Viramontes 428        
CB Sir Patrick Scott 663        
RB Kingston Davis 886        
S Devin Gil 993        
TE Sean McKeon >1000        
CB Antwaine Richardson >1000        
LB Dytarious Johnson >1000        
DT Rashad Weaver >1000        
             
             
Grayshirt            
S Josh Metellus >1000        

 

Comments

  • Guessing on a grayshirt is hard to do. Half a year at UM for an out of state is still $12K or whatnot so I don't know how many kids families - esp in economically challenged spots - can afford this. Maybe they can financial aid. But a full ride elsewhere could always be the easier route. So I didn't want to put 3-4 grayshirts like some assume, so I am simply going with Josh Metellus as a guess.
  • As for the 3 decommits, David Reese seems the most likely for multiple reasons. He wants early entry, all the crystal ballz of late have him to Texas, and we are recruiting a ton of LBs still.
  • Chris Evans I put there because he was visiting Purdue. Now maybe that means nothing and he wants to visit school friends there. But I needed to make spots in this class for new kids and I think the staff really likes Weaver and Johnson so I have only so many kids I can eliminate - he was one.
  • Kiante Enis - the quote in this week's roundup from Ace makes me feel like UM is "pulling a Stanford" on him where begin to lack communication with commits they don't especially want in a class (personally I don't love this methodology but it is what it is). I don't buy the reasoning some has offered that everyone is too busy and not one staff member can find 10 minutes in his day once a week to give a shout out to Kiante. If you want a guy you recruit him non stop even post committment which in this day and age means little. So hearing he has talked once to UM in a month has me thinking he will be replaced.
  • Antwaine Richardon impressed coaches in a camp setting on a bum knee so I have him staying in the class; however maybe someone like he or Sir Patrick Scott could be bumped out of class if David Long, Lavert Hill and Chris Brown all want in. But I have them both in the class at this point.

 

Image result for projecting the future

Section 2 is who we will land and who we will miss on. This is based on trying to reverse engineer - obviously these things can change on a dime. I cheated here a bit by saying Quinn Nordin will be part of the class and decommit from PSU and go to UM despite having to pay out of pocket for a semester. That's a bit of a stretch but he is a Michigan kid and hey Harbaugh or Franklin for 4-5 years? So I have 11 commits which takes us to 29 total... 2 grayshirts.

Pos Name Ntl Rnk Projected   Pos Name Ntl Rnk Projected
DL Rashan Gary 1 UM   TE Isaac Nauta 9 GA
RB Kareem Walker 34 UM   ATH Mecole Hardman Jr 21 GA
OL Terrance Davis* 62 UM   LB Caleb Kelly 23 OK
DL Jordan Elliott 98 UM   CB David Long 66 Stanford
CB Lavert Hill (PSU) 136 UM   LB Jeffrey McCulloch 73 Texas?
DL Keyshon Camp (USC) 188 UM   DT Boss Tagaloa 82 UCLA
LB Devin Bush Jr 230 UM   OL Jean Delance 92 Texas?
WR π Young** 388 UM   WR Dylan Crawford 94 Oregon
LB Jonathan Jones**** 415 UM   WR Donnie Corley 118 MSU
DB Chris Brown***** 710 UM   LB Dontavious Jackson 119 Texas?
PK Quinn Nordin*** (PSU) >1000 UM   ATH Jordan Fuller 124 OSU
          DL Chris Daniels 161 OK
          DL Connor Murphy 198 USC
* Delance gets this spot if he wants it       DL Levi Onwuzurike 273 ?
** Crawford gets this spot if he wants it       TE Jacob Mathis 313 UF
*** Cramming Nordin into class via grayshirt       WR Eddie McDoom 390 UK
**** McCulloch, Kelly, Jackson get this spot if any want it       WR Velus Jones (USC) 420 ?
*****

 
Long gets this spot if he wants it       LB Khaleke Hudson 593 WV
          DL Terrel Lucas >1000 Duke
                 
        .        

 

Image result for yes

Comments on Projected "YES"

  • DL guys: Gary, Elliott, Camp are UM's 3 targets per Lorenz. We all know the Gary story - UM vs various and sundry SEC folk. UM seems to be the leader. Elliott got 2 major crystal ballz yesterday in Lorenz and Ace; concurrent with DL target Chris Daniels to Oklahoma. He will be here this weekend - momentum seems to be building. Last, Camp is coming to UM on an unofficial - that takes money and shows seriousness; he'd be a USC flip. He has a HS friend on the team as well in Jones.
  • Walker - could be a silent committment at this point; 17 of past 18 crystal ballz to UM; he even wore a UM towel which is a clear signal this is 102% guaranteed. UM is not seriously recruiting another running back either.
  • UM wants Delance as they want to add an OT. Davis is a guard. Lorenz indicated if UM gives green light to Davis he will accept and come to Michigan. So this is a waiting game on Delance. So that spot could be either OL guy - I went with the sure thing but its a coin flip at this time.
  • Hill is a long rumored PSU flip - his brother plays on the team and he has been to UM 5x this year and apparently 0 to PSU. Maybe - just maybe - UM is slow playing him as they think they can get another corner ala David Long? I don't know - I also wouldnt risk that as some think he will flip to MSU with HS friend Corley if not to UM.
  • LBs - hard to predict with a lot of moving spots and I assume 2 open spots. I gave them to Bush Jr who is probably 50/50 with UM v FSU and Jonathan Jones who like Davis has been a "UM lean" for half our adult lives. I suspect Jones is possibly being slow played while UM sees if it can land a Dontavious Jackson type. I imagine we'll get 2 LBs - but which 2 (Kelly, Jackson, Bush, Jones) is an unknown. We'll probably know a lot more about Jackson's prospects after this weekend, Bush will be at UM Dec 11th. If Jones suddenly commits to Notre Dame that may actually be a good thing for UM as it might mean he has received word we don't have room for him as someone else "silently" took his spot.
  • UM wants Dylan Crawford but Crawford has said Oregon is his dream school and they recently offered. So it's a battle for his services - if he says yes, we get him and we are done. If he says no guys like McDoom, Young, Jones are next in line - I went with the sure thing in Young as he seems like he would say yes tomorrow if given the green light.
  • I projected a 2nd corner - while I would love for that to be David Long who is a Stanford commit who really liked his UM visit, I went with Chris Brown (NTCB) who is a Texas v UM battle. If Long says yes that obviously takes Brown's spot unless Lavert Hill is rated lower on UM's internal board I guess. Or 1 of our current commmitted corners is bumped out of the class.
  • I slipped in Nordin as a grayshirt as noted above - it's a reach to assume that.

 

Image result for jessica alba sexy heels

[this photo has nothing to do with the piece but it needed more photos so this one works for me]

Comments on Projected "Misses" not mentioned above

  • Hardman Jr has pushed back his committment to NSD. That only helps UM. But right now I assume Georgia until we see a flurry of crystal ballz change. Hopefully he is a signing day shocker.
  • Nauta - see Hardman. He apparently loved his UM visit and this offense is built for TEs but until we see some tangible movement I assume Georgia.
  • Caleb Kelly it's been pretty quiet here - some people think its 50/50 UM v OK but not a single crystal ball has turned UM's way. If that changes at some point he would seem more viable but hard to project him for UM right now.
  • David Long seems like a 50/50 with Stanford v UM. Of everyone in this group of "misses" he probably (?) is the most likely to be in the UM class
  • Guys like McCullouch, Tagaloa, Fuller are sort of just guys out there UM likes but until there is more significant movement on their part hard to put them in the class.
  • I think Donnie Corley has been a silent MSU commit for a long time - so "he gone" Dec 8th.
  • Connor Murphy is interesting from the family connection to Harbaugh - I think he has an official scheduled in December (?) [could be wrong] but hard to find a spot for him if we take 3 DTs (Gary a DT/DE hybrid]
  • Onwuzurike is a guy no one seems to know anything about - he must be very quiet. But same issues as Murphy in terms of room in class.
  • One problem with my class projection is it only has 1 TE - and a lower rated if athletic one at that. With the season Florida is having I see it as difficult to go to Jacob Mathis at last minute if Nauta falls through and say come to Michigan, you were always #2 in our hearts but we want you now ... but crazier things have happened. I want to put 2 TEs in this class somehow but it might be just 1?

 

Comments

alum96

November 25th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^

a) if anything is longer than 100 words a segment of the main board starts whining

b) this would be off the front page of main board within 12 hours; it lasts longer here even if diaries get 10% of traffic of main board.

814 East U

November 25th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^

Alum96, your write ups are great. Keep them coming. What are your plans moving forward? Every couple weeks? Once per week? 

I start getting into recruiting a lot more once the season is over. There will probably be some chips that fall soon with the season being over and the coaching change rumors all over the country.

alum96

November 25th, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^

I do something similar but in a very different format (i.e. potential rectruiting board based on 24/7s warm interest) once a month.  But now as we get closer to NSD it's time to change gears and make the format more narrow as there are less people involved and more intelligence being leaked.

So in the home stretch it will really be based on how often things change.  At minimum I will do once a month but based on last February I was posting stuff like this every 48 hrs the last 2 weeks before NSD. :D 

Not going to repost it with 1 commit for example but if suddently 4-5 variables change I'll do respost.  So we'll just determine it as it comes in.  Also some people on here are more recruiting gurus so as I read what they have to say it may impact it too.

alum96

November 25th, 2015 at 2:13 PM ^

Woo hoo I got a Brian comment.  Thought it would take 50K points to get one. 

I think a few of the DBs are in play to decommit but not sure which.  The Flanagan defensive backfield could be at risk.

I am still worried about the Enis comments.  Hoping Chris Evans is staying.

ericcarbs

November 25th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^

I don't see Quinn nordin being a huge stretch for a greyshirt. He is from Rockford so he has in-state tuiton. Also, he favors Michigan according to multiple reports apparently. I can defitenly see him going blue and only pay 1 semster of classes.

alum96

November 25th, 2015 at 2:16 PM ^

Yep but in his case it was more of a PSU v UM... both blue blood programs thing as opposed to cost out of pocket or like in Metellus case it is UM vs Georgia Southern - not exactly programs in the same stratosphere.

I dont think its outlandish, just said a bit of a stretch.  It does seem probable he is in the class from the tea leaves.

Stringer Bell

November 25th, 2015 at 2:38 PM ^

Really hope we can land Nauta somehow.  Butt is showing just how lethal an athletic, pass catching TE can be in this offense.  Nauta would really blossom into a star here.  Hard to see why he would choose Georgia, especially given all the uncertainty around Richt's job security there, but I guess it's not easy to just pack your bags and come north for 4 years.

d_ronii

November 25th, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^

Our roster is setting up to have an infusion of talent and ability with this 2016 class. It will be very interesting to see the kind impact that these recruits could make in their first year. The defensive line talent is starting to look ridiculous. We can win championship with a dominant line like this.

Side note : I wonder how many people would get Carlo Kemp and Keyshon Camp names mixed up?

DonAZ

November 25th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

Terrific write-up.  Very nicely done.

And there's not one damn thing wrong with that extra photo.  It's like the pinch of salt that's needed in cake frosting ... you just accept that it's a necessary piece and go with it. ;-)

bronxblue

November 25th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^

Great stuff. Breaks how I expect, though the TE spot may be one UM just rolls with and expect to fill internally with a position change unless a Nuata falls to them.

MinWhisky

November 25th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^

I realize it's a little off-topic but it does relate to the 2016 roster and I find your comments thoughtful and insightful.

I'm especially interested in your reaction to the idea of moving Jabrill Peppers to more of a LB position, ala' Dhani Jones and Ian Gold in the late 1990s.  It seems like that would increase the number of plays where Peppers plays a key role and better utilize his strength, speed, athleticism, and football instincts.  It woud also reduce his pass coverage responsibilities, which is not his strong suit as several have pointed out, including Brian.  I could even see UofM's coaches getting creative to design a position especially for Jabill and add in some defensive scheme changes to go with.

I also wonder if Deveon Smith would make a good candidate for LB in 2016 given his size, toughness, and willingness to engage in contact and considering UofM's needs at that position.

 

alum96

November 25th, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^

I have no insight on this but my thoughts are identical with Brian on 2 fronts:

  1. I'd enjoy Smith as a FB/3rd down back (his pass blocking is Vincent Smith in Hulk size) IF and only IF we get a legit guy who runs on 1st/2nd down and is good at it.  Otherwise he is stuck at rb.  I have no idea if Walker would be that guy and I am hesistent to assume anything based on our history with highly rated rbs.  Last time we did this 3 years ago everyone said Fitz would lose his job outright at start of season to Green or "by start of Big 10 at latest".  Now Green is basically Darko - the human victory cigar.  So until you get a viable back who can do 60% of the carries you can't do Smith to FB.  If Walker can replicate Saquan Barkley who wrested the starting job in game 3 (same time I beieve Hart did) then you have options. 
  2. Peppers impact on D is probably immeasurable.  There is a reason the D is so good and aside from the DL I think its Lewis and Peppers.  Next year you lose Wilson and all the LBs and now people want to lose Peppers too.  I think that's nuts.  I am sure teams watching his film game plan around his strengths - all those plays come back into play with him as a full time rb, and all year we complain about guys making plays in space and we need more guys like that and now people want the 1 guy who does that moved.  Your question is more to LB - at his size he'd be crushed taking on OL guys that our DL missed.  He is doing exactly the right job for his skill set now.  MSU has a position I think called star LB where they bulk up 210 lb guys to 225 and make them their "coverage" LB but I don't see that in Jabrill's body type.  He's 5'11 in reality when you see him stand next to Woodson ....throwing 20 lbs on him changes his body and potential speed/explosion.  That said I expect a lot of 4-2-5 next year as Gedeon has not beaten out our worst LB this year (Bolden) so that tells me we have issues at LB.
  3. Winovich might go back to LB, I hope he does and can help.  Boggled he played TE this year as I'd think to prepare a guy with no game experience having him rep at LB all year in practice would be ideal. Would be very sad to get nothing out of Winovich, Wangler, Furbush as that was 3/4 of 1 LB class.  Furbush apparently at least is beginning to kick in on ST but we need 1 of those 3 to be something as a LB.
  4. If Canteen sticks around (some whisper he may not) he hopefully is corner as we dont have much depth - that position rakes up injuries and right now we have our top 3, Watson, and Washington (a project).   We also have S depth issues next year - Thomas, Hill and Kinnel are really the only 3.  1 gets injured you may need to push Clark back to S and then when is your CB depth and people want to move Peppers out of DB?

I will be curious what they do with Wheatley as well - it sounded like kidding but Jay Harbaugh said he wants to keep Wheatley away from Drevno.  Gentry some think will be TE not QB - who knows.  I'd love to see Travis Wilson 2.0 coached under Harbaugh which is Gentry's upside.

I do still think some younger guys on O depth chart might be forced to go to D in the next 18 months.  Our 2015 class had a whopping 4 defensive players so we have a donut hole in experience.  The 2014 class was smaller than usual too for D.  So after 2016 when almost the entire 2 deep save Hurst (and Mone) graduate you are looking at a ton of inexperience.  Which is why this class is critical and how we finish it - its almost all defensive players we are focusing on and a ton of these guys may be starters as rs fr or true so in Sept 2017.   I will be curious on Cole - he came out of HS as a S/Wr - they seem to have promised him to be a wr and maybe that is where he is best but in 2017 our safety rotation is currently Ty Kinnel and nobody, backed up by nobody.  Etc.

Wolfman

November 26th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^

even before JH, but the last guy to play the Wolfman position under Bo, actually at M completely was Dufek and his skill set given the era is a lot like J. Peppers. I mention the era because there was so little passing and Don, of course, did not return punts or kickoffs. He did, however, do something on defense that remind me a lot of what Peppers is doing now. I think the coaches have given him quite a long leash and a good number of green light plays where if he decides he can blow the play up before it gets going he's allowed to let instincts take over and bounce rather than fall back and read his keys. He has an uncanny ability to dissect plays much like Dufek did and act on what he saw unfolding, often times appearing as if he came out of the opponents backfield knowing which play they were running.

Harbaugh has said things could get crazy next season and many have interpreted that to think Peppers will somehow be in our offensive backfield. I'm not reading it that way for the reasons Brian has mentioned and the fact that w/preparation we can manufacture enough points to win most of our games based on our defense's efficiency which would suffer greatly if you take the best player on that unit away. It is the defense that keeps us in games. It is Harbaugh's genius that allows a limited amount of highly skilled players to put up reasonably impressive numbers. It's also his genius to recognize what Peppers means on that side of the ball and he is not going to allow him to take the direct hits that a RB gets running between the tackles. So yes, he will play offense, but it will be on jet sweeps, screen passes, passes from the slot as he progresses as a receiver, etc. He will not line up at tb. As Lloyd told Woodson, if he saw any dropoff in any of his defensive assignments, his role on the offense would be gone. I have to believe that is Jim's mindset as well. He knows what he has, how to use him and to date I think he's been reasonable in incorporating him enough to give opposing DCs extra time in preparation that enables us to gain a few pts each week out of the offense as a direct result. So, expect him to remain on the D, and like I said, look for an increasing role there as he is given even a longer leash as Durkin utiizes even more covereage schemes, allowing him to read and react.

 

Rabbit21

November 25th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^

The Indiana RB's both play RB and provide extra shots with a position of obvious need, but are also versatile enough to play multiple positions, something Harbaugh se M's to prize. I'd be shocked if they ended up elsewhere. Great write-up and a good look at a realistic recruiting pool.

Wall

November 26th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^

Personally, I hope that we'll be able to hold on to Enis and Evans. I just feel being how versatile our staff is with players like them, it would be a great fit. Harbaugh would know exactly what to do with them.

LSA Superstar

November 27th, 2015 at 7:55 PM ^

Alum96, do you think there's the possibility that Bush is holding out on his commitment so as to ensure that his teammates are extended full offers?  I think it's strange that we're his rumored leader (to the point where we may be a silent commit) but he hasn't committed after months of waiting while two of his less-heralded teammates jumped at the chance.

alum96

December 1st, 2015 at 3:41 PM ^

Camp is out due to weather so will move him off the list next update.

All 9 Elliotts who commited this weekend will also be in the next update.

Weaver is visiting Temple so looks like could join the pool of "non Reese" decommits.  I assume Reese is already well on his way to decommiting - the rest are guesses for now.