Probabilities of wins in the remainder of the season
There is a site (http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com) where you can create a fantasy matchup between two teams in the present or past era and the game is simulated and a score and statistics are generated. I ran a trial of 1,000 games for each of the remaining games on the schedule and recorded the scores and amount of Michigan wins. Using the amount of Michigan wins, I calculated the “win rate” or the statistical percentage for the probability of a Michigan win in a given instance based on the results of the 1,000 trials ran (This was done by taking the amount of Michigan wins divided by 1000 x 100 for a percentage) . (You can run 25 trials at a time and it gives you the scores along with the average score and the number of wins for each team). The results were as follows:
* Home field is taken into consideration.
Average Score
Michigan – 15.3
Penn State – 31.625
Win Rate: 3.8%
Michigan – 26.6
Michigan State – 24.8
Win Rate: 58.0%
Michigan - 23
Purdue – 26.1
Win Rate: 38.5%
Michigan – 25.325
Minnesota – 25.79487
Win Rate: 47.2%
Michigan – 25.975
Northwestern – 23.125
Win Rate: 62.7%
Michigan – 14.875
Ohio State – 29.175
Win Rate: 6.6%
I also did 1,000 trials for the Utah game for reference and comparison.
Average Score
Michigan – 16.675
Utah – 24.45
Win Rate: 21.4%
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