Probabilities of wins in the remainder of the season

Submitted by jswavel34 on

There is a site (http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com) where you can create a fantasy matchup between two teams in the present or past era and the game is simulated and a score and statistics are generated. I ran a trial of 1,000 games for each of the remaining games on the schedule and recorded the scores and amount of Michigan wins. Using the amount of Michigan wins, I calculated the “win rate” or the statistical percentage for the probability of a Michigan win in a given instance based on the results of the 1,000 trials ran (This was done by taking the amount of Michigan wins divided by 1000 x 100 for a percentage) . (You can run 25 trials at a time and it gives you the scores along with the average score and the number of wins for each team). The results were as follows:

  

* Home field is taken into consideration.

          Average Score

                               

Michigan – 15.3

Penn State – 31.625

 

Win Rate: 3.8%

   

Michigan – 26.6

Michigan State – 24.8

 

Win Rate: 58.0%

   

Michigan - 23                                                                                 

Purdue – 26.1

 

Win Rate: 38.5%

   

Michigan – 25.325

Minnesota – 25.79487

 

Win Rate: 47.2%

   

Michigan – 25.975

Northwestern – 23.125

 

Win Rate: 62.7%

   

Michigan – 14.875

Ohio State – 29.175

 

Win Rate: 6.6%

   

I also did 1,000 trials for the Utah game for reference and comparison.

 

            Average Score

 

Michigan – 16.675

Utah – 24.45

 

Win Rate: 21.4%

   

Comments

BlueSwave34

October 15th, 2008 at 11:00 PM ^

Thanks for the research. That is some very interesting info. Hopefully the season will go alot better than that but that is a big reality check. One thing for sure is that RR will get this thing going in the right direction and this storm will pass. Go Blue!!

Joined: 10/15/2008

MGoPoints: 746

GCS

October 15th, 2008 at 11:21 PM ^

Two people join about an hour apart, both have swave in their name, one posts a diary that hopes to direct traffic to a website, and the other comments on what a great post it is. I see what's going on here.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 857

joeyb

October 15th, 2008 at 11:32 PM ^

Don't forget about 34 in both of their names. Nice catch. I am not sure I would have seen it but the comment sounded pretty cheesy.

I think those chances of winning are a lot more accurate than what was posted by Brian earlier. I guess we will have to see though.

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 16845

Jeff

October 15th, 2008 at 11:30 PM ^

It seems really odd that we would be more likely to beat Michigan St than Purdue or Minnesota. I would have to imagine it would be opposite, even accounting for home field advantage.

Joined: 07/01/2008

MGoPoints: 1435

joeyb

October 15th, 2008 at 11:34 PM ^

My guess is that it goes by statistics. It sees that they have a poor quarterback and everything is done on the ground. It also sees that we have been pretty good against the run. I haven't seen Minnesota much this year, but Purdue is a spread passing offense, something that we are not very good at protecting against.

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 16845

TarHeelverine

October 16th, 2008 at 12:04 AM ^

With UM at Home; "Michigan(1997) wins 14 of 25 matchups against Nebraska(1997) Projected Score: Michigan 26 Nebraska 25"

At Nebraska; "Nebraska(1997) wins 13 of 25 matchups against Michigan(1997) Projected Score: Nebraska 23 Michigan 20"

And had 2006 been a home year; "Michigan(2006) wins 14 of 25 matchups against Ohio St.(2006) Projected Score: Michigan 21 Ohio St. 21"

Joined: 09/23/2008

MGoPoints: 13

BlueSwave34

October 18th, 2008 at 12:29 PM ^

Yep I have nothing to do with the website I was just commenting on the post that he did put a considerable amount of time and effort into. Sorry if anyone thought otherwise. Go Blue!!

Joined: 10/15/2008

MGoPoints: 746