Predicting Duane Long's Top Ten

St. Ed's O-Line (minus Kalis). Duane Long's Top Ten doesn't have room for all of them. (Image: Lonnie Timmons | Cleveland.com)

This is an addendum to Ace's Thursday Recruiting today. In that post Ace noted he was worried Long's prO-hio biases might have led him to leave some important future Wolverines off the list:

Meanwhile, Duane Long has rated 11-50 of his top 50 prospects in Ohio [parts 1, 2, 3, and 4], and here's the Michigan commits included so far: Tom Strobel (12), Pharaoh Brown (17), Jarrod Wilson (18), Joe Bolden (26), A.J. Williams (31), and Caleb Stacey(48). That means Kyle Kalis and Chris Wormley are almost assuredly in his top ten, but it'll be interesting to see if Kaleb Ringer and Allen Gant make the cut or are (unjustifiably, in my somewhat-biased opinion) left off the list entirely. For context, the #50 prospect, Mason Monheim, is unrated on Rivals and holds offers from Illinois and a handful of MAC schools.

Here's a list of guys rated highly by Rivals who did not make the Top 50 (yet):

Thats' 26 dudes with BCS offers and whatnot. Long has 6 guys in his Top 50 who aren't rated by Rivals yet. Those guys and their offers:

Dawson is a legit freak athlete none of the sites (Scout, ESPN, 247) have heard of except Rivals, and they little more than his name. Scouting Ohio lists his deeds as a running back, but Long is excited about him as a DT. I couldn't find any schools that offered since he apparently has grade issues that will likely see him head to a JUCO and reemerge at some SEC school in 2 years. The rest have maybe one BCS offer (if you count the Big East as BCS). This is the level one must pass to be in the Top 50. If you might fit that description, you are not in the Top 50. That about does it for Klusman, Kuhar, Leahy, Draper, S.Smith, and A.Jones. Spencer, Anthony Stanko and the Austintown Finch athlete Davis duo might have an argument for Top 30 but not Top 10.

Mortal Locks: (3) Ifeadi Odenigbo, Kyle Kalis, Bri'onte Dunn. Each were mentioned in reviews of the other guys in a context of almost/just as good as...

Almost Certainly: (3) Se'Von Pittman, Adolphus Washington, Greg McMullen. Long has been all-up-on's for these guys all year. They are consistently rated the tops in their respective positions, or near enough to it because they all play the same position (...as Wormley and Odenigbo too)

Because it's Long you know he'll have: (2) Warren Ball, Josh Perry. Two more 4-star guys committed to Ohio State. Eight other OSU commits (every one but Pat Elflein) have already been profiled, and Ball, Perry and Dunn (see mortal locks) are OSU's three most highly rated recruits this year.

"Is _____ better than a MAC player?"

Kyle Dodson
Why: He's the last consensus 4-star not among the pretty. 
Why not: Ohio State and Michigan passed on Mount Dodson -- Wisconsin likes road graders but Long does not necessarily share that opinion.
Is he better than a MAC player: Absolutely.

Sam Grant
Why: Long once said Grant might be the best among the St Ed's group, which includes Kalis and previously profiled Darryl Render.
Why not: The nice things slowed when the Ohio State offer didn't materialize.
Is he better than a MAC player: Probably.

Kaleb Ringer
Why: Long has long had Ringer listed as his top linebacker in Ohio.
Why not: Concerns about his size. Wolverine.
Is he better than a MAC player: Absolutely

Chris Wormley
Why: As of March made Long's 1st team All-Ohio, ahead of Pittman and McMullen; Washington was starting SDE.
Why not: Wolverine.
Is he better than a MAC player: Uh....

Allen Gant
Why: Most sites rate Gant higher than Bradley.
Why not: Wolverine. Son of Wolverine. Long may think Sylvania is part of Michigan. Also it's almost certain Gant won't make the Top 10 because Bradley's writeup called Bam the second-best safety in the class, and Jarrod Wilson was placed above him.
Better than a MAC player: Pretty sure.

Maty Mauk
Why: He's a really good QB
Why not: Long has been pretty consistently leaving Mauk off lists since last year.
Better than a MAC player: Probably.

Tyler Orlosky
Why: Like Grant a St. Ed's guy ahead of Render. Long called Orlosky "the most underrated lineman in the state" and put him 2nd team at both guard positions ahead of #44 Jacoby Boren (YTB), but behind Michigan's Stacey (48) and MSU's McGowan (14).
Why not: Behind #48 means out of the running.
Better than a MAC player: Yes.

Ross Martin
Why: Might be the best kicker prospect in the country this year
Why not: Is a kicker
Better than a MAC player: Yes.

Best guess is Wormley almost has to get one spot unless Long has found a reason to hate him (other than committing to Michigan). Ringer is a good bet for the last one, being the top LB in the state and all. That still leaves Gant off the list. However there's plenty of reason to think some of these other guys might take their places, especially Dodson and Grant. That could mean some of M's recruits are slipping, or that I just need to learn to take Duane Long lists with a Bleacher Report serving of salt.