Post Week 8: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor
Just a quick refresher from week 7 game vs. Iowa. Diary can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-6-yardage-analysis-and-predictions-... . UM's offense and defense both came to play against Iowa. The offense was predicted to put up 407 yards of offense. They put up 522 yards. This was UMs best offensive day of the season, posting a 200% of Iowa's season average. This moves UM season average up to gaining nearly 159% of what their opponents typically give up.
The defense also had a stellar day giving up 383 of the predicted 454 yards of Iowa offense. Statistically for the defense, this was their best game of the season. They held Iowa to 91% of their season output. This was the third time this season the UM defense held their opponent under their season average.
The score predictor nearly hit a grand slam two weekends ago. I predicted a 35-28 UM loss. The final score was 38-28 Iowa. Despite UM having a great day moving the ball and having a relatively decent day holding Iowa in yardage, they did not succeed where it counts: on the scoreboard. Iowa was scoring 1 point every 12.69 yards on the season. In the Michigan game, they scored 1 point every 10.08 yards; well above their season average. Iowa had damn good field position all game and plays like Sash made on the block FG returning it past midfield, really hurt UMs chances in this ballgame. Not to mention the TWO!!! kickoffs out of bounds.
Where was UM on yards per point? For the season, UM was scoring a point every 13.75 yards. During the Iowa game, UM scored one point every 18.64 yards. A product, no doubt, of penalties and turnovers. UM, after the Iowa game, is score a point every 14.78 yards. Something interesting to note is that UM was scoring a point every 13.03 yards in 2009. Despte that, UM is on pace to score 78 more points this season than last. Go figure.
What does this mean moving forward?
It all has to be positive. I mean, the DEFENSE HAD THEIR BEST STATISTICAL GAME OF THE SEASON!!! That alone is reason to celebrate. On top of that, UMs offense had their best game as well. If UM can limit their turnovers the rest of the season, or they can create some of defense, then I feel comfortable saying that there isn't a team on UMs remaining schedule that they can't beat.
Anyway, let's move on to week 9. Game at PSU...
Charts first? Yes... CHARTS
Well, with the bye week, UMs stats did not change. However, PSU was able to help their cause a little bit. They put up their second highest point total on their fourth lowest yardage total. That increased the predicted point total by 1 point.
UM still remains a favorite to outgain their opponent in all of their remaining games besides OSU. They are a -113 yard dog to OSU. However, UM was a 48 yard dog to Iowa and out gained them by 139 yards, for a 187 yard turnaround, so anything is possible.
UM - 527 yards
PSU - 369 yards
Score Predictor based on statistics...
UM - 35
PSU - 24
My score predictor based on gut feeling and blue shades - UM 42-17
I just took the prediction down the next avenue. I've calculated a percentage error of my predictions and then formulated a high and low for yardage output and their corresponding point totals.