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Post Week 12: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor

By tpilews — November 26th, 2010 at 2:03 PM — 5 comments

Week 11 analysis and prediction can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-11-yardage-analysis-and-predictions...

I'm not going to go into a review of the Wisconsin game because, honestly, I've forgotten about it already, and I'd rather just keep it forgotten. I will say this... UMs offense had their third worst game of the season in a game in which they needed their best to win.

An interesting stat to note that I heard from Ira on WTKA is that UM is 1-4 when they score less than 21 points in the first half and 6-0 when they do score 21 or more. Let's hope for a fast start against OSU.

 

Let's move on to the charts shall we.....

 

As you can see from this chart, UMs defense gave up more than their season average and the offense gained less than their season average. UM has an even tougher contest tomorrow against the Buckeyes. Let's hope they can pull out a ridiculous performance; one that will stand the test of time. Unfortunately, that's exactly what they'll need if they want any chance tomorrow.

 

As you can see, UM has yet to play an offense as good as Ohio States, nor a defense as good as Ohio States. And OSU's defensive stats aren't even close to the next Big Ten team. They are 70 yards per game better than the next defense, Iowa. One bit of hope is that UM torched Iowa's defense for 522 yards. They'll need this performance tomorrow.

 

The predictor was pretty close for the Wisconsin game.

Now on to the predictor....

 

UM does have a chance to outgain the Buckeyes, but they'll need a ridiculous performance out of both their offense and defense. Even then, OSUs defense is giving up a touchdown every 121 yards they give up while UMs defense is giving up a TD every 93 yards. If OSU score 42 points on the day, UMs offense is going to have to gain almost 730 yards of offense just to keep pace.

I guess I'm not even sure what else I can say/type to convey that UM has a very slim chance of winning this game. The game has a better chance of becoming a blowout win for OSU than a UM win. I'm not even going to make a prediction on this because my heart can't take it anymore. Please, God, have mercy on UM football tomorrow.

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November 26th, 2010 at 2:37 PM | ok cmon dude (Score:1)
Nick
Nick's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 977

obviously UM wouldnt have to gain 730 yds to score 42.  OSU's yds/TD wouldnt hold up with that many yards.

The extra yards UM gains from say 300 to 500 would likely be finishing off scoring drives.  A better predicor of our points would be our Yards/TD as it would take into account our struggles with penaties, TO's and the like

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November 26th, 2010 at 3:02 PM | Okay, split it 50/50 and UM (Score:1)
tpilews
tpilews's picture
Joined: 10/17/2008
MGoPoints: 1745

Okay, split it 50/50 and UM still needs 670 yards of offense.

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November 26th, 2010 at 3:05 PM | Taking each team's (Score:1)
tpilews
tpilews's picture
Joined: 10/17/2008
MGoPoints: 1745

Taking each team's yards/point average on both sides and going 50/50 between the offense and opponents defense give a score of UM 28, OSU 43.

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November 26th, 2010 at 6:39 PM | I know this is a starting to get played out but (Score:1)
RED DAWN
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Joined: 11/08/2010
MGoPoints: 154

So your saying there is a chance?  Albeit very slim.

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November 26th, 2010 at 6:52 PM | Points (Score:1)
OSUMC Wolverine
OSUMC Wolverine's picture
Joined: 09/06/2008
MGoPoints: 1104

All we have to do is score more points.  We dont have to look good.  We dont have to look dominating.  Stats dont matter at this point.  Win.  Several years ago a 4-6 TUOOS team cost us a national title shot by tying us....I would think we are better than that 4-6 TUOOS team...its possible and it will happen

Go Blue

Reality is an illusion created by an unsafe drop in blood alcohol levels that exposes one to the idiocy of others.

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