...talks about how UConn hasn't been in contact and how they're out. (HT: UMHoops)
Post Week 11: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor
Week 11 predictions and analysis can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-10-yardage-analysis-and-predictions...
Statistically, UM had a good game defensively and a bad game offensively. Yeah, pretty much what you and I already knew. It's tough to really go into any kind of analysis because with the weather, everything was affected. Both offenses struggled to hang onto the ball. Both defenses probably played their best games of the year. I guess one positive note that can be taken from the Purdue game, and really the entire season, is that UMs offense has still not be held under their opponents average yards given up per game. The Purdue game was the lowpoint for the season, at just over 109% of Purdue's defensive average. On the flipside, UMs defense had their best game of the season statistically. They held Purdue's offense to 82% of their season average. Again, how much of this really matters based on the effect weather played in this game is up to you. I guess the one big thing I'd take away from the Purdue game, besides the win, is that UMs offensive line is really the heart of this offense. They played poorly, thus cutting down time for DR to throw the ball and open up running lanes. Anyway, glad they won, but let's move on.
Wisconsin charts...
Before Wisonsin massacred Indiana, they were the 5th ranked defense and 6th ranked offense on UMs schedule. Hanging nearly 600 yards on your opponent will do that to a ranking with such a small sample size. Take these rankings with a grain of salt, but, according to this, Wisconsin is the third best team UM will play this year. That Iowa vs. OSU game this weekend also looks like it could be a great game to watch. Go Hawks.
Percentage Error calculation took a hit this past weekend. UMs offense was short nearly 150 yards and their defense gave up nearly 110 yards less than I predicted. At this point, UMs offense is more capricious, while the defense is more consistent.
Wisconsin got a major boost for their offensive prediction from the IU game, Their average starting position was on the IU 49 yard line, so they scored a bunch of points on fewer yard than it would normally take on average. They were averaging right around 50 yards per TD scored against IU. For the season, Wisonsin is averaging 74 yards per TD scored. Before the IU game, they were averaging nearly 81 yards per TD scored. UM is averaging nearly 97 yards per TD scored on the season. Turnovers, penalties, bad starting field position are all culprits.
With that said, UM still has a good shot in this game. They look like a 6 to 7 point dog going into the game. Add on the -3 for homefield advantage, and you have UM +3 or 4. If UM is going to have any chance in this game, they need a good to great game from the offense and defense.
Predictions...
Yards
UM - 472
UW - 450
Score
UM - 42
UW - 38
November 17th, 2010 at 2:06 PM | 
Defensive improvement
Defensive improvement
November 17th, 2010 at 2:29 PM |
To be fair,
To be fair,
38 points could still mean improvement. Purdue's offense isn't exactly FBS material right now. Example is Illinois game, where we gave up 65 but people still saw improvement from the Penn State debacle. We just need to get off the field on 3rd down more often than not and that can be counted as continued improvement.
"When your team is losing, stick by them, keep believing." -Bo Schembechler
November 17th, 2010 at 2:08 PM |
Call in The Cardiologists to the Big House
Call in The Cardiologists to the Big House
Looks like the Illinois game all over again without OT. Hope our hearts can take 3+ hours of exhiliration and terror again. Looking forward to a great day at the corner of Stadium and Main. Go Blue!
Brady Hoke - High quality recruits one or two at a time.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:40 PM |
Good news/Bad news for me
Good news/Bad news for me
Luckily I won't have any heart problems that day... I won't be able to watch the game. It's bad because I obviously love Michigan football and HATE to miss games. The good news... I'll be on my honeymoon and that won't suck. I'll have to hope for some great highlights and a positive end result for the boys in BLUE!
"Bend over and I'll show you." Perfect answer to nearly any question.
November 17th, 2010 at 2:58 PM |
quick weather check...
quick weather check...
a quick weather forcast check shows a beautiful day. high 44, partly cloudy. the precipitation they were showing for sunday has moved back to monday. go blue...
November 17th, 2010 at 3:11 PM |
Positive Thinking
Positive Thinking
The first prediction I've seen where we win. I like it. Gives me hope for a fun day at the Big House!
Your MGoLawyers in Columbus. Unabashedly representing the interests of Wolverines all across enemy territory and now back hoMe.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:19 PM |
I hope the prediction is
I hope the prediction is
I hope the prediction is correct. I am still really skeptical about this game. I have confidence that we can play with Wiscy, but I really hope we can pull out a nice win. A final Senior Day win for the seniors would be nice.
“What the mind can conceive, the mind can achieve and those who stay will be champions.” - Bo
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November 17th, 2010 at 3:33 PM |
Hmmm
Hmmm
I find the score prediction a lot more believable than the yardage prediction. I think it will be tough going for the offense to put up almost 600 yards against UW, especially with defenses starting to "figure out" DRob.
+1 to you for the analysis. Go Blue!
November 17th, 2010 at 3:41 PM |
I guess my thinking is that
I guess my thinking is that
I guess my thinking is that the defense continues to be average and not death. I also think UMs offense will come out and be very effective after a shaky performance against Purdue. We see it all the time in CFB, teams will play bad one week and then play amazing the next, or vice versa. I think the team will be extremely focused and the fact that Wisconsin has had trouble against spread teams, UM will score at will.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:57 PM |
so this will be an "error
so this will be an "error
so this will be an "error high" day!
2013 resolution - make it onto the 2014 favorite MGoPosters post, not ironically
November 17th, 2010 at 5:47 PM |
I'll take it.
I'll take it.
I'll take it.
November 17th, 2010 at 6:36 PM |
I like the prediction. And
I like the prediction. And
I like the prediction. And if the 2008 squad could pull off an upset then there is no reason the think that this year's Michigan team can't do the same. Go Blue!
November 18th, 2010 at 9:49 AM |
3rd and . .
3rd and . .
I think the key to this game is stopping WISC on 3rd downs. Throughout the year our defense has struggled with it.
I think our offensive tempo is okay. If we turnover two lesser than what we would it is game.
The game is not going to be close. It i s going to be one sided. Either Wisc or Michigan.
-------
Let's. GO. BLUE.
OSUCKS.
November 18th, 2010 at 11:29 AM |
Good feeling
Good feeling
I think "intangibles" will figure in big time in this game. Our D took notice to Wisc puttin up 83 and will play best game of the year for us. Adversely, I think 83 may get their offense a bit complacent- plus, no offense can click like that every week. Sometimes, if a game is too easy then it's not good.
This is all just a gut feeling I have, nothing near the time and effort the OP put into his entry. I have been watching sports a long time though, and just have a good feeling. We are in "fight for everything we get mode". Wisconsin is not. It's hard to just flip a switch, usually takes a wake-up call. We got ours with MSU, Iowa, PSU.
Great stuff as usual...
Fair to say:
You're prediction would make for a heck of a game...