Position Battles Cooling Off

Submitted by Magnus on

Just like every Michigan fan, I sat dumbfounded for the first four minutes of the game against Notre Dame on Saturday.  Throughout the offseason, Michigan fans were so adamant that Notre Dame is a horrible team.  And they were right, to an extent.  But none of us thought Michigan would be horrible-er.  Michigan dominated every single statistical category on Saturday, except for the two most important ones: turnovers and the scoreboard.  Based on this game, a few position battles are finally becoming clear:

QB: Steven Threet vs. Nick Sheridan
Threet started the game this week, and Rodriguez had said that Sheridan would probably get some snaps, too.  It turns out that Threet played so well that Sheridan didn't get any snaps until late in the fourth quarter, when the game was already decided and Threet was hobble by a leg injury.  In fact, not only did Threet outplay anything Sheridan has done so far this year - he outplayed Notre Dame's 5-star, all-everything golden boy, sophomore quarterback Jimmy Clausen.  Threet was 16-for-23 for 179 yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions.  Several of those incompletions weren't his fault, either.  A couple were straight-out drops by Martavious Odoms and Greg Mathews in the rain; one incompletion should have been a long TD pass to Mathews, but the referee erroneously said Mathews didn't control the ball before it touched the ground.  Nick Sheridan entered the game in the fourth quarter and threw two interceptions.  One wasn't his fault - it was almost directly at tight end Carson Butler's head, but Butler didn't turn around fast enough - but the other was a floater thrown into double or triple coverage.
Verdict: Threet will be the starter unless his injury causes him to miss significant time.

RB: Sam McGuffie vs. Brandon Minor/Carlos Brown/Kevin Grady/Michael Shaw
If any questions remained after last week's game against Miami (OH), McGuffie answered them this week.  McGuffie broke tackles repeatedly on the way to his first career 100 yard game.  He had a couple electrifying plays, including a quick screen pass on which he weaved through traffic and bounced off a downfield Perry Dorrestein block to score a 40-yard TD.  He also didn't fumble, which was key on a day when Michigan's other players fumbled a ridiculous seven times.  Brandon Minor continues to run the ball well - he had a tough 9-yard run - but he also continues to turn the ball over, even though his turnovers might not be his fault.  In the Utah game, his "fumble" happened because his forearm hit the ground, which should have ruled him down.  In the Notre Dame game, "his" fumble was a quick swing pass that Threet might have thrown too soon; as soon as Minor turned his head around, the ball was almost in his facemask.  Minor probably should have caught it, but I think that was a combo effort.  Carlos Brown continues to be nagged by small injuries and he's done zilch with his two carries this season.  Kevin Grady produces more fumbles than a 16-year-old trying to unclasp a bra for the first time; even though he carried a Notre Dame linebacker on his back for five yards to score a TD, his ball security has been a career-long issue.  Shaw has the best pure speed of any of the running backs, but he's currently fighting a groin pull.
Verdict: It's McGuffie's job to lose, but I expect everyone to continue getting an occasional carry.

FS: Steve Brown vs. ANYBODY
I'm not the world's biggest Steve Brown hater.  I won't jump on the pile, because he seems like a decent kid and he obviously doesn't mean to make these mistakes  (unlike Carson Butler, who ought to be kicked off the team for throwing a punch in the Notre Dame game).  But I have a hard time believing that he is far and away the best option at free safety for this Wolverines team.  He is probably the best physical specimen that Michigan has had at the position.  He's 6' and around 205 lbs. and he has pretty darn good speed.  However, anyone can see that he's uncomfortable playing in space.  He misses way too many tackles in the open field, and that's exactly what you don't need in a free safety.  He should probably move to strong safety and let Brandon Harrison have the free safety spot, because Brown is more effective as a tackler when he's playing downhill and attacking the line of scrimmage.  If that can't happen, then the coaches should give fifth year senior Charles Stewart or redshirt freshman Michael Williams or sophomore Artis Chambers a shot.  Brown has been neither a ballhawk or a solid tackler, so I see no significant reason to keep him on the field full-time week after week.
Verdict: I would not be surprised to see a switch or a schematic change for the Wisconsin game in two weeks.  The coaching staff should know by now that Brown's slip-ups are habits, not flukes.

Comments

littlebrownjug

September 14th, 2008 at 9:41 AM ^

I think that Rich Rod has to get Stevie Brown off the field, because he clearly needs to study the game more. I think that he is the classic case of a player who skated through high school on his athletic ability, and I would not be shocked if he did not take work on technique or film sessions too seriously. Maybe, he will learn a little bit about taking proper angles and field geometry by watching a little more closely from the sideline. McGuffie and his running syle really is starting to grow on me, but I am miffed that Carlos Brown has not been more of a player in this offense. I know that he is dinged up, but I cannot believe how little he gets on the field. Threet should be the starter, but I think he is only a caretaker at the position. What I really wonder is whether we can reasonably expect one of the new recruits to come in next year and play? This looks like a minimum of two years to rebuild this offense.

Magnus

September 14th, 2008 at 10:00 AM ^

I realize this is a big "if" but if Threet plays as well against the rest of our schedule as he did against Notre Dame, I think there's a very strong possibility he could remain the starter next season.  He's a better runner than he was given credit for.  And our receivers are getting open and making plays.  If you have a guy who can make a few plays with his feet, make good decisions, and find the open receiver, why make a change?  But obviously, it's too early to tell whether this will continue, how ready Forcier will be, or even whether Forcier will stick with Michigan (I don't have inside info - I just realize nothing's official until National Signing Day).

turbo cool

September 14th, 2008 at 10:31 AM ^

IMO Stevie Brown has got to be awesome in practice. that, or the fact that we have no other safeties in competition with him. He is a great athlete but he just doesn't execute.. really anything.

Blue Durham

September 14th, 2008 at 10:45 AM ^

Some good insights.

I think that Threet will still need to steadily improve through the season (I think he will) to keep his grip on the starter's job. Also, I think that your comment on his prospects are right on for next year as well. There will probably be some snaps for Beaver and/or Forcier, but Threet will have a whole season of experiece under his belt. That is particularly big on away games.

Regarding the running backs, I do hope that others, particularly Shaw, get some carries. I know, eeeee Barwis and all that regarding conditioning, but I think the demands on the RB on this offense are such that it would be difficult for one to carry the entire load. I would also like to develop some depth.

RE: Stevie Brown. I am probably the least knowledgable on this board about the technicalities of football. But here is my 2 cents. FS is a tough position to play and requires a lot of different skills (speed, tackling, etc.) that are measurables. He may show very well in these things in practice.

But the best safeties I ever saw, however, understood quickly after the snap what the play was designed to do, and thus get to where they needed to be. The instinct thing. A tough thing to teach (hence the complaint about a lack of improvement) It is my feeling that Stevie Brown's main problem he is slow for a FS, to recognize the play.

Blue Durham

September 14th, 2008 at 11:08 AM ^

Instinct in this context may be similar to the quick recognition to reaction time that makes great baseball hitters.    Stevie Brown may be a little slow to recognize/process and decide where to go/then react and go.  Similar in hitting in recognize the pitch and where or whether it will be over the plate/whether to swing/then swing. 

goody

September 14th, 2008 at 11:25 AM ^

this year and possibly next year with extensive playing time in his junior and senior year. Sheridan has proven that he is not a Big Ten starter and should see no time the rest of the year baring injury to Threet. Yesterday was horrible conditions and Threet threw the ball well even in the rain. He made good decisions throwing, when to tuck it and run, and with the zone read.

chitownblue (not verified)

September 14th, 2008 at 11:33 AM ^

Call me crazy, but I agree that we can't dismiss the possibility of Threet being a long-term solution for us.

Blue Durham

September 14th, 2008 at 11:42 AM ^

If Threet continues to improve like he has since the first game (there will be "diminishing returns," of course), I don't think him being Michigan's long-term QB will be a fate worse than death.

But I would like him to cut back on the "statue of liberty play to no one" a little bit.

Magnus

September 14th, 2008 at 11:50 AM ^

Agreed.  Threet isn't limited enough physically to completely dismiss the thought that he might be a long-term solution.  If he continues to improve, he might be the answer.  He made some very good throws yesterday.  I can't picture a true freshman coming in and having any chance of playing as well as Threet did yesterday in such a big game in such bad conditions.  Threet does have a bit of a fumbling issue, but it seems most freshmen do.

spartyNO

September 14th, 2008 at 12:05 PM ^

Are there any highlights up of Beaver's game on ESPN Thursday? I just looked at his old video on youtube, and the dude clearly has some legs. The video quality is terrible though, and you can't really see how he throws the ball. To anyone who saw his game, does he have a good throwing motion? Good arm? Accurate?

Magnus

September 14th, 2008 at 12:15 PM ^

Beaver has a pretty good arm.  I'd say it's on par with Threet's arm - not a rocket, but not noodle-like either.  He is somewhat accurate, but he definitely needs some help in that area.  He's not wild, but he needs to work on placing the ball in the right place on the receiver, not just getting it in the receiver's general area.  He's got some mechanical things to work on, too.  He has kind of a long throwing motion and doesn't use his legs well to power and direct his throws. 

I think his biggest adjustment is going to be the mental aspect.  I think all the physical stuff will be okay.  It's just a matter of whether he can grasp the offense and make the right decisions.

DC Dave

September 14th, 2008 at 12:25 PM ^

Threet looked very good on Saturday and McGuffie seems to have the RB position locked up as well. The only thing I'd add to the well-stated observations made by Magnus about either of these positions is that Threet has the potential to be much more than a temporary solution at QB. I really want to see how the offense performs against Wisconsin, though. It is entirely possible that ND's defense is awful and that Threet's step forward on Saturday wasn't quite as big as it appeared. FWIW, my thinking has gone from hoping that Beaver or Forcier can step in as true freshman to hoping that Threet continues to develop and is entrenched as the starter next year, allowing one of the other two to redshirt. As for Brown, well, maybe he needs to be replaced or shifted to SS. Then again, if he does have great physical skills as Magnus asserts maybe he just needs to learn the position and make better decisions? He'll likely be needed next year after Harrison and Stewart depart. The positions I'm most intriged by today are on the offensive line. The starting lineup announced by NBC yesterday didn't include any seniors. Is that group going to continue to start together going forward? I thought they looked pretty good, at least compared with the first two games. Again, ND's defense may have contributed to their competent appearance. Really looking forward to the UFR this week...

Magnus

September 14th, 2008 at 12:41 PM ^

I think 2009's offensive line will look much like our current one.  Remember, Dorrestein was starting for Ortmann, who will be a 5th year senior in 2009.  And Zirbel won the RG job before he got hurt.  So the interior line will be made up of some combination of Zirbel, Moosman, McAvoy, Molk, and whatever freshmen (Barnum? Khoury?) who might make a push.  Huyge is in there, too, but I haven't heard much of anything about him.  He seems like a late-career starter or just a career backup.

Lordfoul

September 14th, 2008 at 1:48 PM ^

I liked Threet a lot in this game as well. He was stepping into his throws more and delivering them on target and with zip too. Stevie Brown is a liability in a crutial position. I think we should switch him into a sort of "spy" position where needed to shut an opponent's best player down. I have seen this before on other defenses and against the spread it seemed to make a lot of sense. He shouldn't be our every down safety though. McGuffie is the MAN!

Don

September 14th, 2008 at 4:54 PM ^

There's no doubt that in our two losses our offense and special teams have put the defense in bad positions, but when we needed our defense to keep us in the game early against Utah and ND they didn't do squat. Many are focusing on Brown, but I don't think the D-line has asserted itself when it mattered, either. I'm not nearly as impressed by its play when we're down by 21 as by what it does when we're down a score or less. It's like having a guy who only hits homers when the Tigers are up by 11 or down by 8, but never when the score is tied.

AnthonyC

September 14th, 2008 at 5:49 PM ^

If Kevin Grady wasn't kicked off the team for putting people's lives seriously in jeopardy with his drunk driving incident, do you really think Butler should be kicked off the team?

Magnus

September 14th, 2008 at 8:32 PM ^

As far as I know, that was Grady's first run-in with breaking team rules and/or the law.  Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, because I might be.  He deserves a second chance.

Butler has been in constant trouble and was booted off the team before.  He's been given enough chances.  It's time for him to go.  How can we put OSU down for keeping thugs around and for Robert Reynolds choking Jim Sorgi when we have a guy throwing punches unprovoked (provocation does not include verbal insults)?