Playoff Scenario Week to Week

Submitted by BornInAA on

It's really not too hard to see Michigan in the playoff.

The assumptions are the top teams win out over lower teams, except in these cases:

  1. the Big 12 round-robin lose to each other and they also do not have a championship game
  2. Memphis drops 1 on the road at either Houston or Temple
  3. OSU beats MSU, then Michigan in turn beats OSU

Let's look:

  w10       next game
1 Clemson 8 - 0 W
2 LSU 7 - 0 W
3 Ohio State 8 - 0 W
4 Alabama 7 - 1 L
5 Notre Dame 7 - 1 W
6 Baylor 7 - 0 W
7 Michigan State 8 - 0 W
8 TCU 8 - 0 W
9 Iowa 8 - 0 W
10 Florida 7 - 1 W
11 Stanford 7 - 1 W
12 Utah 7 - 1 W
13 Memphis 8 - 0 W
14 Oklahoma State 8 - 0 L
15 Oklahoma 7 - 1 W
16 Florida State 7 - 1 L
17 Michigan 6 - 2 W

Results: Bama loses to #2 LSU; OKST loses to #8 TCU; FSU loses to  #1 Clemson; Michigan jumps  2

 
  w11       next game
1 Clemson 9 - 0 W
2 LSU 8 - 0 W
3 Ohio State 9 - 0 W
4 Notre Dame 8 - 1 W
5 Baylor 8 - 0 L
6 Michigan State 9 - 0 W
7 TCU 9 - 0 W
8 Iowa 9 - 0 W
9 Florida 8 - 1 W
10 Stanford 8 - 1 W
11 Utah 8 - 1 W
12 Memphis 9 - 0 L
13 Oklahoma 8 - 1 W
14 Alabama 7 - 2 W
15 Michigan 7 - 2 W
16 Oklahoma State 8 - 1 W
17 Florida State 7 - 2 W
 
Results: Memphis loses to #25 Houston; Baylor Loses to #13 OK; Michigan jumps  2
 
  w12       next game
1 Clemson 10 - 0 W
2 LSU 9 - 0 W
3 Ohio State 10 - 0 W
4 Notre Dame 9 - 1 W
5 Michigan State 10 - 0 L
6 TCU 10 - 0 W
7 Iowa 10 - 0 W
8 Florida 9 - 1 W
9 Stanford 9 - 1 W
10 Utah 9 - 1 W
11 Oklahoma 9 - 1 L
12 Alabama 8 - 2 W
13 Michigan 8 - 2 W
14 Baylor 9 - 1 W
15 Oklahoma State 9 - 1 L
16 Florida State 8 - 2 W
17 Memphis 9 - 1 W
 
Results: MSU loses to #3 OSU; OK loses to #6 TCU; OKST loses to #14 Baylor; Michigan jumps 1
 
  w13       next game
1 Clemson 11 - 0 W
2 LSU 10 - 0 W
3 Ohio State 11 - 0 L
4 Notre Dame 10 - 1 L
5 TCU 11 - 0 L
6 Iowa 11 - 0 W
7 Florida 10 - 1 W
8 Stanford 10 - 1 W
9 Utah 10 - 1 W
10 Michigan State 10 - 1 W
11 Alabama 9 - 2 W
12 Michigan 9 - 2 W
13 Baylor 10 - 1 W
14 Florida State 9 - 2 L
15 Memphis 10 - 1 W
16 Oklahoma State 9 - 2 W
17 Oklahoma 9 - 2 L
 
Results: OSU loses to #12 Michigan; ND loses to #8 Stanford; TCU loses to #13 Baylor; Michigan jumps 5 above OSU and MSU and off to B1G Champ Game!
 
  champ       next game
1 Clemson 12 - 0 W
2 LSU 11 - 0 W
3 Iowa 12 - 0 L
4 Florida 11 - 1 L
5 Stanford 11 - 1 W
6 Utah 11 - 1 L
7 Michigan 10 - 2 W
8 Ohio State 11 - 1 n/a
9 Notre Dame 10 - 2 n/a
10 Michigan State 11 - 1 n/a
11 Baylor 11 - 1 n/a
12 Alabama 10 - 2 n/a
13 TCU 11 - 1 n/a
14 Memphis 11 - 1 n/a
15 Oklahoma State 10 - 2 n/a
16 Florida State 8 - 4 n/a
17 Oklahoma 9 - 3 n/a

Results: Iowa loses to #7 Michigan; Florida loses to #2 LSU; Utah loses to #5 Stanford; Michigan jumps 3 IN THE PLAYOFFS

 

          Why am I here?
1 Clemson 13 - 0 undefeated
2 LSU 12 - 0 undefeated
3 Stanford 12 - 1 won PAC12, beat #6 Utah
4 Michigan 11 - 2 won B1G, beat #3 Iowa and #3 OSU
5 Iowa 12 - 1 Just lost to Michigan
6 Florida 11 - 2 Just lost to LSU
7 Utah 11 - 2 Just lost to Stanford
8 Ohio State 11 - 1 Just lost to Michigan, didn't win B1G
9 Notre Dame 10 - 2 Just lost to Stanford, independent
10 Michigan State 11 - 1 Just lost to OSU that just lost to Mich & didn't win B1G
11 Baylor 11 - 1 Lost 1  in Big 12 which sux & has no playoff
12 Alabama 10 - 2 Lost to LSU, didn't win SEC
13 TCU 11 - 1 Lost 1  in Big 12 which sux & has no playoff
14 Memphis 11 - 1 American conf with 1 loss
15 Oklahoma State 10 - 2 Lost 1  in Big 12 which sux & has no playoff
16 Florida State 8 - 4 Lost 4
17 Oklahoma 9 - 3 Lost 3

Because we beat #3 OSU and #3 Iowa back to back we are in! The rest of the teams either lost their championship game or did not play one. 

The only flaw is the assumption that all Big 12 teams all lose one game. If one of them wins out, they will probably be picked as an undefeated team.
 
I like dreaming big, so let's win out and let the chips fly!
 
 

Comments

markp

November 4th, 2015 at 3:17 PM ^

This seems... somewhat feasible. College football is crazy so there's no way it plays out this predictably, but that will probably help us as long as we keep winning.

Blue Durham

November 4th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^

You end up having a 2 loss Michigan team ahead of a lot of strong 1 loss teams. That just isn't going to happen. If the reverse happened, with Michigan behind a team or teams with one more loss, a lot of people around here would be justifiably pissed.

berto714

November 4th, 2015 at 4:18 PM ^

Yea, this. In the hypothetical outlined above, Michigan would have beaten undefeated Ohio State followed by undefeated Iowa to finish out the season. They'd also have an additional game (and win) over many of those one-loss teams (i.e. all Big 12 teams, ND, any other 1-loss teams that don't make their conference championship). So, despite having one more loss, they'd likely have the same number of wins.

All of this also ignores the possibility the the CFP committee looks at the MSU loss as kidn of a wash, given the fluky nature of the last play. They are, after all, trying to pick the four best teams, not the four best records.

Blue Durham

November 4th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

Yeah, Alabama and Notre Dame over a couple of Big Ten teams, Oklahoma State, TCU and Memphis.  Like it or not, Alabama and Notre Dame are perceived quite differently from non-Ohio State Big Ten teams.

And Michigan is not going to jump ahead of a team that it lost to at home and has 1 less loss, regardless how that loss occurred.

UMForLife

November 7th, 2015 at 8:10 AM ^

Alabama I see it. Even then it is hard when they lose to LSU and not play in the conference championship.

ND - Don't see it. If they lose to Standford, they are out. They will not have any good wins on their resume and the two best teams they played, they would have lost. Not a good sign.

ak47

November 4th, 2015 at 3:59 PM ^

Lot of optimism in this post.  Only problem is a 1 loss baylor or tcu could still get in over michigan (1 loss osu got in over them last year but that was same number of losses, the comitte might hate baylors schedule and drop them but that is counting on a lot.  You would be talking about a team with 1 loss to a top 25 team with 2 wins over top 15 teams against a resume with 2 wins over top 10 teams but two losses as well. 

Not to mention dropping msu 4 spots after a loss on the road to a top 4 team might be aggressive unless they get blown out.  There is still no real justification for Michigan being over msu either unless you believe when the loss happened is a legitimate thing to bring up, especially when both games after the half way point of the season.  What is your justification for Michigan jumping msu the last week of the season other than blind homerism You have msu at #10 going into the last week, 3 teams in front of them losing while they win and them being at #10 in the next poll?  Thats crazy talk and would be a terrible decision even as a michigan fan.  It would be funny but it would be dumb.

michiganman001

November 4th, 2015 at 4:11 PM ^

Last year Auburn was ranked 3rd, Ole MIss was ranked 4th and Auburn beat Ole Miss 35-31 on the last playa nd Ole Miss fell to 11th. I think for us to get into the B1G 10 Champ Game, we most likely need MSU to drop 2 games, but it wouldnt be impossible for the committee to drop them 4 spots, especially if they lose by 20+ and I could see that happening. 

BornInAA

November 4th, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^

State after the OSU loss drops behind one-loss Florida, Stanford and Utah. This is not a stretch. All those teams had losses earlier in the season and are more respected schedule-wise.

If we beat OSU after they just beat MSU we will jump over both.

ak47

November 4th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^

Why do we jump them?  In his scenario we jump from 12th to 8th with MSU going from 10th to 10th with a win while 3 teams in from of them lose.  Why wouldn't they be 7th with UM 8th?  And if head to head isn't as important why would osu drop below michigan?  The fact that games happen in week 12 or 13 as compared to week 6 or 7 isn't a legitimate reason for where teams end up. 

So as Michigan fans you can devalue head to head which might justify Michigan over msu but could then end up with osu being above michigan or you value head to head and put michigan above osu but msu over michigan.

michiganman001

November 4th, 2015 at 4:09 PM ^

Michigan isn't jumping a 12-1 stanford. If stanford is 11-2 and ND is 10-2 as well, I think that it would come down to the rankings of NW and BYU. OSU win would be better or as good as the ND win (for Stanford). Stanford would beat Utah but we would match that with a drubbing of a potentially 10-2 NW. They would have UCLA and we would have BYU. Hopefully UCLA falls out of the top 25 by then and our SOS is slightly higher. A lot of things would have to fall our way but we aren't completely dead yet. 

EDIT: well i misread the OP. My scenario above would come into play if the Big 12 champ was also undefeated. 

It would be hard to say whether or not a 11-2 UM with wins over a potentially ranked NW, BYU, OSU, and Iowa and losses to ranked Utah/MSU gets in over a 11-1 Big 12 Champ with wins over 3 ranked teams and the lone loss to a ranked team. I Imagine that our SOS would be higher, and that would be a big factor. 

Bambi

November 4th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^

I would love for this happen, but I think we need more chaos for us to feasibly make the playoffs.

The biggest issue I see here is that I don't think we'd jump OSU after beating them in this scenario. You have them at #3 and us at #12 going into The Game, but with them having just beat MSU, I think they'll more likely be 2 or 1. Unless we massacre them, I think they'll end up ahead of us in the final polls.

Our best chance in this scenario is that MSU drops another game, ideally Nebraska so OSU doesn't move as far up when they beat them, and we win the head-to-head tie breaker over OSU to make the B1G Title Game and can move ahead of them if we beat Iowa there.

While it's not neccesary, I also think to improve our chances we'd need some more chaos in the Pac-12 and Big-12. While it may not be neccesary in the Big-12 because both Baylor and TCU aren't getting much respect as undefeateds, if they both have 1 loss I could see one of them being ranked ahead of us. If Baylor has 2 losses but beats TCU for TCU's 1 loss, I think that's the best case scenario for Michigan.

Similarly, I think we wouldn't jump a 1 loss Stanford, so they'd need to lose another game, most likely to Orgeon or Cal. Honestly, I think best case scenario for Michigan is if UCLA beats Utah in the regular season to win the Pac-12 South. I think a one loss Utah should be ahead of us considering they beat us, but if we each had 2 losses and we looked great at the end of the season and they didn't we would jump them. Then if UCLA beat Stanford in the Pac-12 title game, I think we would have a very solid shot of making the playoff.

So to sumarize:

  1. Everything you laid out needs to happen
  2. MSU losses a 2nd game (ideally to Nebraska or Maryland, more likely Nebraska).
  3. Baylor loses a second game (very possible now tha their starting QB is out for the year and are gonna be playing a true freshman).
  4. UCLA beats Utah, wins the Pac-12 South and beats Stanford in the Pac-12 Title Game.

 

uminks

November 4th, 2015 at 6:16 PM ^

The only chance for Michigan to make it to the B1G championship game is for MSU to lose twice. May be Saturday in Lincoln. MSU is not a great team and I would not be surprised by a NE upset. It is even possible for PSU to knock off MSU after coming off an OSU loss.

If we beat IA a lot of the one loss teams will have to lose to get us into the last playoff spot. I'd be happy just winning out and see what shakes out!

westwardwolverine

November 4th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^

Will they though? As we've seen today, the CFP committee doesn't view record as the end all be all of the equation. 

For instance: Let's say a bunch of crazy shit happens and its 11-1 Baylor vs. 11-2 Michigan for the 4th spot (Michigan wins the BTCG). Is the committee really going to punish Michigan for having a similar conference record but actually playing someone in the OOC schedule? I'm guessing in a situation like this, Michigan jumps them. 

 

BornInAA

November 4th, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^

Yes, it has been proven in the past that the polls hate the Big 12 with no playoff and weak out of conference. Until those teams start scheduling some strong teams out of conference and create a playoff system, they will always get a voting penalty.

 

ak47

November 5th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^

Its been one year and even then it was considered a suprise that a 1 loss osu got in over tcu and baylor despite everyone thinking they were better teams than osu.  So yes they have shown that when other p5 teams have the same record as the top big 12 team the big 12 gets punished for a crap schedule.  It would be another thing entirely for a 2 loss big ten champ to get in over a 1 loss big 12 champ.

MgoHacker

November 4th, 2015 at 7:42 PM ^

This is good. Add in a couple of drops of chaos as there surely will be and there are a few more losses for those top ten teams. The top ten records dont usually look that good at the end of the year

Moonlight Graham

November 4th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^

Can't wait for Saturday. All of this is unlikely but it feels good to be discussing "unlikely" scenarios that could put us into the CFP with a little choatic activity, as opposed to the last couple years where we had absolutely nothing to discuss. Not even far-fetched B1GCG dreams. 

alum96

November 5th, 2015 at 3:48 AM ^

Key games left barring out of blue upsets

 

This week

  • FSU @ Clemson
  • Iowa @ Indiana     [yes this is an upset alert]
  • ND @ Pitt     [yes this is an upset alert]
  • TCU @ OK State
  • LSU @ Bama

Next week

  • Bama @ Miss State
  • OK @ Baylor
  • Memphis @ Houston
  • Oregon @ Stanford

Two weeks

  • TCU @ OK
  • Baylor @ OK State
  • MSU @ OSU
  • LSU @ Ole Miss
  • UCLA @ Utah
  • Cal @ Stanford

Three weeks

  • Baylor @ TCU
  • OK @ OK State
  • OSU @ UM
  • Bama @ Auburn
  • FSU @ UF
  • A&M @ LSU
  • ND @ Stanford

 

 

CoachBP6

November 5th, 2015 at 6:31 AM ^

Appreciate the work but this is a pipe dream. Michigan couldn't stop Minnesota's zone read, ohio runs it better than anyone. I can see 9-3 but I don't see a win over OSU in the cards this year unless Rudock somehow learns how to throw the deep ball, DeVeon Smith gets back into early season mode, and the defense learns how to stop the read option. Even with those things Ohio is still the better team with the better players. Looking at all the other things that would need to happen, and its pretty obvious that our chances are almost nonexistent. I will say there is still a shot at a New Years Six bowl, but even that is doubtful with MSU + Iowa likely having better records at seasons end.

fortissimosca

November 5th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^

As much as I want to this happen, it's got one wrinkle:

University of Houston is sitting at #24 right now.  If they run the table, then they will be undefeated with victories over Memphis, Navy and Temple not to mention victories over SEC and ACC teams (albeit not good ones).  The question would be, would the committee take an undefeated American Conference champion over a two-loss Big Ten champion?

For the above to happen, we would need them to lose at home vs. Navy or in the AAC Championship vs. Temple…which looks like it would be in Houston, too.  Two more games of note to add to the list above.

They could spoil a few parties.

UMForLife

November 7th, 2015 at 8:17 AM ^

The biggest chaos that can happen for M would be if MSU drops one today. Very unlikely, but the NEB AD getting a contract extension should amount for something. Right? /s

Go Blue!

wolverinemayhem

November 7th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^

If sparty loses this week and against ohio and we win out, we'll be locked in to the B1G championship. I think if we win that game, we've got a pretty good shot to go to the playoff. What happens if sparty only loses to ohio and we beat ohio, making it a three way tie for the B1G East? Does anyone know the tiebreaker rules?

MGoJeezy

November 10th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^

3 big games and big tests to go. But we don't have to play the games! What's it gonna take for another playoff scenario from BornInAA ?! Try to do it in my head and never seems to work out.