Penn State 46 Michigan 17, In Numbers

Sometimes its better to be lucky than good. If my line could be this accurate every game, I should move into Vegas.  I posted PSU at +25 and Michigan at -4 for the season, matching the 29 point spread PSU finished with.

Based purely on starting field position, PSU held an expected 32 to 24 advantage for the game. On to the details and, as always, explanation here.

Run offense vs PSU

The numbers reflect more of the first half, than the second.  Michigan finished up with a +10 rating for the game.  Unadjusted, it was a +6, boosted by coming against a solid run defense.  Of the +10, the first quarter came in as a +8, with the rest of the game being generally average.  Brandon Minor finished the game at +7, Threet scored a +3, mostly on the strength of his 14 yard run on 3rd and 3.

Pass offense vs PSU

Michigan finished the game -10, which would have been a -12 unadjusted. Again the second half was a disaster, with only 1 play warranting a positive value before garbage time.  The QBs posted matching -5's for the game passing.

Run defense vs PSU

Evan Royster had himself a game.  A solid +11, second only to Lesean McCoy of Pitt for BCS conference running backs last week.  Overall, the Nittany Lions scored a +8, which was pulled down by the early turnover.  Based on PSU's past performance on the ground, the Wolverine rush defense managed to pull off a very unsatisfying +1 for the day.

Pass defense vs PSU

PSU yielded a solid but not spectacular +5 for the game, with the Michigan pass defense scoring a +4, the late screen TD was not included in the totals, coming during garbage time.

Overall thoughts

Here are the final game ratings for each side:

 

Team	Vs	Week	Total	Off	Def	FP	FG/XP	Pen	Ret TD
Penn State	Michigan	8	22	13	0	8	0	1	0
Michigan	Penn State	8	-4	0	5	-8	1	-1	0